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‘Sri Lankan tea’s current crisis only reinforces the value of productivity-linked wages’

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By Dr. Roshan Rajadurai

“An incentive is a bullet, a key: an often tiny object with astonishing power to change a situation”

– Economist, Steven Levitt

Almost 7 months from the Government’s initial decision to ban the import and use of synthetic fertilizers and as at the date of this publication, Sri Lanka’s entire agriculture and plantation economy is still frantically in search of any viable option to mitigate the threat of declining yields.

Without any prior planning or notice, our entire sector has been coerced into blindly participating in the most unscientific experiment ever attempted in Sri Lanka’s history. We are all left to now anticipate what the implications of an immediate, nation-wide halt to all established and essential best practices relating to plant nutrition, pest, fungus and weeds will be.

We are told that arrangements are being made to import organic fertilizer from various, untested sources, and agreements are minted to produce organic fertilizer locally, much akin to attempting to rebuild an airplane while it is still in flight. Nevertheless, the inconvenient truth remains. At present, all supplies of “organic” and inorganic fertilizer are in short supply.

Stocks which are available, have increased in price owing to both supply-demand dynamics, disrupted supply chains and unprecedented increases in landed costs. These escalating payments are making Sri Lankan tea’s already high cost of production (COP) even higher, which is placing Sri Lankan plantations under even further stress. This a few short months after an increase in worker wages was thrust through the Wages Board.

Sri Lankan tea’s strange new normal needs to be re-evaluated immediately

With the end of the year approaching, and the window for fertilizing crops closing, it appears that the industry will be locked into at least one – if not more – growth cycles absent basic nutrients of Nitrogen, Potassium, and Phosphorus, and with no ability to control pests and weeds. Without immediate solutions, the broad consensus among those with expertise is that we can start to see exponentially worse crop losses starting from the end of 2021, hitting approximately 40% by next year.

If RPCs were to have disregarded basic agronomic practices and norms in such a manner of their own volition, it would have been called criminal mismanagement. With agricultural best practices now being roundly ignored in favour of a largely undefined and unplanned strategy for transforming Sri Lanka into a nation with “100% organic agriculture”, this historic, and intentionally misinformed self-sabotage is being repackaged as visionary and progressive.

Meanwhile, the nation’s best agricultural experts are being ignored or in the case of Prof. Buddhi Marambe, sidelined and silenced, on the grounds that he simply stated scientific facts regarding the current agro-chemical ban and had been consistent in doing so, because he had previously spoken up against the previous Government’s disastrous decision to suspend glyphosate imports.

This was a policy which resulted in the rejection of Sri Lankan tea exports as a result of issues with Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs), and caused the permanent loss of extremely high value markets in Japan, and a similar escalation in costs; all without a single shred of scientific evidence being provided to justify the lasting damage caused. As a result, the Government of the time was compelled to backpedal on its decision, but not without irreversible damage being done for no apparent reason.

This “justification” highlights a dangerous trend of politicization of science. If the science does not agree with politics, then it now appears acceptable to simply dismiss the scientists, rather than engage with facts and ground realities.

A simple extrapolation shows a grim future for workers

Regardless of short-term political expediency, reality has a way of asserting itself. Spread across 14 districts, the tea industry alone provides direct employment to over 600,000 people engaged in cultivation and processing and indirect employment to a further 200,000 involved in the supply chain. The sector provides complete livelihood support for a resident population of one million in Regional Plantation Companies (RPCs) and 450,000 Tea Smallholders with one million dependents, hence supporting a total population of nearly 2.5 million.

When considering both employment and livelihood generation, it is estimated that the industry sustains more than 10% of our national population and its net foreign exchange earnings are only second to the garment industry.

Even if “organic” fertilliser is made available, there are still serious concerns as to whether it can provide sufficient nutrients. Hence, it appears that the writing is on the wall. With insufficient nutrients as a result of the unplanned push for organic, we anticipate a series of cascading failures stemming from a collapse in productivity. No amount of rhetoric will be able to turn back the tide of negative sentiment against such developments.

If not land productivity, at least labour

Unlike the garment industry, where progressive incentive structures were allowed to flourish, in our industry, workers remain bound to an outdated colonial era daily wage model. As a result, unlike the dynamism of the apparel sector, Sri Lanka’s plantation sector is also weighed down with one of the lowest labour productivity rates in the world. The combination of low land and labour productivity will create a series of cascading failures.

The only measure that could at least temporarily mitigate this dynamic is the implementation of productivity linked wages. This is a model which has the support of all RPCs, and which was has been widely practiced with tremendous success by tea smallholders. While they have been implemented with ease in low-mid grown estates, it is only in the high-grown regions, where resistance to these models has been encountered.

Crucially, this resistance is not from workers who have experience with productivity linked wages, but rather with Trade Unions who would likely lose relevance if such models were implemented. The benefits for workers are immense. In addition to creating a potential monthly earnings per worker of between Rs. 37,000-Rs 62,000, under previous proposals advanced by RPCs.

This will also give workers flexi-hours, empowering them to choose when and how they work. Given the labour shortages prevalent across the entire tea industry, such a move would at long last incentivize workers effectively, and reward them for achieving their full individual potential, thereby significantly optimizing labour productivity.

However, without a scientific resolution to the fertilizer crisis, wage reforms can only serve as a stop gap measure. As land productivity drops, RPCs, state plantations and smallholders alike will be forced to reduce the amount of work offered, leading to a continuous diminution of worker earnings.

The few remaining workers in the plantation industry will have no choice but to try their luck in other lines of work, accelerating the ongoing migration of labour from the estate sector. It is unclear whether other economic sectors have the capacity to absorb such a large group of workers at once.

Already, we have seen multiple outbreaks of mob violence on estates, with the majority of such incidents being triggered by disputes over wages. Without proper solutions to these burning issues, worker wages will eventually be disrupted. Will the authorities take responsibility for what will follow?



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Business

Inflation curbed by govt. fuel subsidy introduction and surcharge on vehicle import tax – CBSL Governor

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CBSL Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe

By Hiran H. Senewiratne

The government’s decision to introduce the fuel subsidy and the surcharge on the vehicle import tax helped curb inflation to a great extent, Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

‘The government this week approved a Rs. 40 billion fuel subsidy for the next three months on top of Rs. 57 billion provided from April-June, Governor Weerasinghe told the media yesterday at the Central Bank head office in Colombo at the CBSL’s monthly monetary policy review meeting.

‘If not for fuel subsidy and surcharge on the vehicle import tax, the inflation would have been higher than the current level, the Governor said.

‘There could have been higher imports and reserve building up would have been difficult. Inflation has risen beyond the Central Bank’s upper band of 7 percent since July, he said.

‘The country’s inflation hit a 37-month high of 8 percent in August after the government raised fuel prices more than 50 percent following the Middle Eastern escalation by end February, Dr Weerasinghe said.

The Central Bank’s inflation target for the past three years have been 5 percent with lower band of 3 percent and higher band of 7 percent, Governor said.

The Governor added: ‘The government provided Rs.57 billion as a fuel subsidy mainly for diesel. The latest Rs.41 billion has been allocated only for diesel as it is used for public transport.

‘The government also imposed a temporary 50 percent surcharge on Customs Import Duty on new personal vehicles on May 16 and has extended it until December 31, a move that will help to prevent outflow of foreign currency.

‘The Central Bank also tightened the monetary policy in May, raising the key monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, to curb excess demand in the economy to control demand-driven inflation.’

Meanwhile, head of the CBSL’s Economic Research Department L.R.C. Pathberiya said, ‘Credit growth has slowed to 24.5 percent year on year in August from a higher level of 30 percent a few months ago, after the Central Bank’s monetary policy tightening in May.

‘However, the Central Bank is optimistic about the current credit growth, he explained.

Pathberiya added: ‘The credit to the private sector from commercial banks has slowed, but we believe it is sufficient for economic growth.

‘The nation’s economic growth slowed to 4.2 percent year-on-year, its lowest in 11 quarters’’.

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PM warns Sri Lanka’s waste crisis is a ‘disaster waiting to happen’

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The third ICPIES being addressed by Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya.

By Ifham Nizam

Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya warned that Sri Lanka’s worsening waste-management crisis, particularly the uncontrolled accumulation of plastic waste and poorly managed landfills, was a “disaster waiting to happen”, urging scientists, researchers and policymakers to help the government find practical solutions before the problem reaches a critical point.

Addressing the launching of the Open University of Sri Lanka organized, ‘International Conference on Plastics, Innovations and Environmental Sustainability’ (ICPIES 2026) as Chief Guest, at the Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel yesterday she said waste management, waste reduction and recycling had become national priorities, with the government placing greater emphasis on the issue in its preparations for the 2027 Budget.

‘This is becoming a critical issue and something that, at any moment, if we don’t manage it properly, could become a huge disaster. It’s a disaster waiting to happen, Dr. Amarasuriya said.

She said unregulated and poorly managed landfills, particularly in and around Colombo, posed serious environmental and public risks, while increasing urbanisation was extending the waste-management challenge beyond the capital to other parts of the country.

‘As a member of Parliament for the Colombo District, I can tell you that one of the biggest challenges we are facing is waste management and actually managing the recycling of waste, and particularly of plastic products. This is something that we are battling every day, she said.

The Prime Minister said the government could not regard economic development as meaningful if it came at the expense of the country’s environment and natural resources.

‘If we are to speak of a beautiful life, we must first ensure that the air we breathe, the water we drink, the soil on which we live, the food we eat is clean and secure, she said.

She pointed to the scale of the global plastics crisis, noting that around 400 million tonnes of plastic waste are generated worldwide each year, while between 19 and 23 million metric tonnes of plastic waste enter natural ecosystems annually.

Plastic waste eventually breaks down into microplastics, which can enter aquatic organisms and subsequently the human food chain, she said.

Dr. Amarasuriya also linked plastic consumption and environmental degradation to the wider climate crisis, warning that the consequences of climate change were already being experienced by communities around the world.

She referred to devastating floods and landslides in the Himalayan region and said the impacts of climate change demonstrated that environmental damage could have consequences far beyond national boundaries.

Coastal clean-up projects and other waste-separation and recycling initiatives are also being implemented, while the government is working with the Western Provincial Council on a refuse-derived fuel project at Karadiyana.

The third ICPIES, held under the theme “Eco-Driven Innovations,” brings together researchers, policymakers, industry representatives and other stakeholders to examine plastic pollution, microplastics, circular-economy approaches, waste-management policy, technological innovation, artificial intelligence and smart environmental monitoring. The conference ends today.

Senior Professor P. M. C. Thilakarathne, Vice Chancellor of the Open University of Sri Lanka, was the Guest of Honour.

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Mention of possible future inflation dampens investor appetite

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By Hiran H. Senewiratne

Stock investors were worried yesterday following Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe’s mention at the CBSL monthly monetary policy review meet of possible future inflation pressures that may impact the economy.

The All Share Price Index went down by 4.89 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 16.1 points. Turnover stood at Rs 1.55 billion with four crossings.

Those crossings were; Access Engineering crossed 1.5 million shares to the tune of Rs 119.8 million; its shares traded at Rs 79.60, Sampath Bank 450,000 shares crossed tfor Rs 63 million; its shares sold at Rs 140, Sunshine Holdings 750,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 21.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 28.50 and Softlogic Life 290,000 shares crossed for Rs 20.4 million; its shares sold at Rs 70.40.

In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were: Access Engineering Rs 150 million (1.9 million shares traded), JKH Rs 113 million (six million shares traded), Softlogic Life Rs 80 million (one million shares traded), Softlogic Capital Rs 64.7 million (6.7 million shares traded), Lanka Realty Rs 64.3 million (1.3 million shares traded), Colombo Dockyard Rs 53.7 million (452,000 shares traded) and Sierra Cables Rs 50 million (1.43 million shares traded). During the day 58.9 million share volumes changed hands in 13536 transactions.

It is said that mixed market reactions were noted especially in manufacturing while banking, insurance and FMCG sectors performed well. Further, construction sector counters, especially Access Engineering, and banking sector counters, especially Sampath Bank, performed well.

People’s Leasing & Finance PLC announced its allotment basis for 100 million listed debentures it issued to raise Rs 10 billion, after receiving applications for the full amount.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 330.68/75 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 330.70/90 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.

An auction of Rs 80,000 million Treasury bills was ongoing.

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