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South Korea’s new president has a Trump-shaped crisis to avert

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Lee campaigned on the promise that he would strengthen South Korea's democracy and unite the country after a divisive and tumultuous six months [BBC]

South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, has secured a storming victory, but his honeymoon will barely last the day.

The former opposition leader is not getting to enjoy the two-month transition period usually afforded to new leaders, so they can build their team and nail down their vision for the country.

Instead he is entering office immediately, to fill the hole left by the impeachment of the former president, Yoon Suk Yeol, who last December tried and failed to bring the country under martial law.

In electing Lee, with almost 50% of the vote , South Koreans have vehemently rejected the military dictatorship that was almost forced upon them. Lee campaigned on the promise that he would strengthen South Korea’s democracy and unite the country, after a divisive and tumultuous six months.

But that will have to wait. First, he has a Donald Trump shaped crisis to avert.

In the coming months, Trump has the power to destabilise South Korea’s economy, its security, and its volatile relationship with North Korea.

South Koreans were dismayed when Trump slapped 25% tariffs on all Korean imports in April, after already hitting the country with aggressive tariffs on its core industries – steel and cars. They had assumed that being longstanding military allies from the days of the Korean War, and having a free-trade agreement with the US, would spare them.

If these tariffs take effect “they could trigger an economic crisis”, a seasoned advisor to Lee’s Democratic Party, Moon Chung-in, said.

Before Trump’s announcements, South Korea’s economy was already slowing down. The martial law chaos constricted it further. Then, in the first quarter of this year, it contracted. Fixing this has been voters’ number one demand, even above fixing their beleaguered democracy.

Getty Images Lee Jae-myung addresses a crowd of reporters on the night of former President Yoon's martial law declaration. He's wearing a navy suit and blue tie, and he is surrounded by other men and women in suits.
Lee Jae-myung is entering office immediately, after the impeachment of the former president Yoon Suk Yeol [BBC]

But without a president, talks with Trump have been on hold. They cannot be put off any longer.

And there is much more than South Korea’s economy at stake in these negotiations.

The US currently guarantees South Korea’s security, by promising to come to its defence with both conventional and nuclear weapons, were it to be attacked by its nuclear-armed neighbour, North Korea. As part of this deal there are 28,500 US troops stationed in the country.

Yet Trump has made clear he does not plan to differentiate between trade and security when negotiating with South Korea, signalling that Seoul is not pulling its weight in either area.

In a post on his Truth Social platform in April, Trump said that during initial tariff talks with South Korea he had “discussed payment for the big time military protection we provide”, calling it “beautiful and efficient one-stop shopping”.

This approach makes Seoul uniquely vulnerable.

Evans Revere, a former senior US diplomat based in Seoul, fears a crisis is coming. “For the first time in our lifetime we have a US president who does not feel a moral and strategic obligation towards Korea”.

In his first term as president, Trump questioned the value of having US forces stationed in Korea and threatened to withdraw them unless Seoul paid more to have them. It seems likely he will demand more money this time around.

Seoul may not want to pay more, but it can afford to. A bigger problem is that Trump’s calculations, and that of his defence department, seem to have changed. This is no longer just about the money. Washington’s top priority now in Asia is not just stopping North Korea attacking the South, it is also to contain China’s military ambitions in the region and against Taiwan.

Getty Images US troops in camouflage uniform and carrying rifles marching in a single file. Behind them is a row of South Korean and US flags.
The US currently guarantees South Korea’s security, with 28,500 US troops stationed there [BBC]

Last year, a now senior US defence official, Elbridge Colby, said that South Korea was going to have to take “overwhelming responsibility for its own self-defence against North Korea”, so the US could be ready to fight China.

One option is that the troops stationed here would switch their focus to constraining China. Another, touted by acouple of US defence officials last month, is that thousands of soldiers would be removed from the peninsula altogether and redeployed, and that Seoul’s military would also have to play a role in deterring Beijing.

Not only could this put South Korea in a dangerous military predicament, but it would also create a diplomatically difficult one.

President Lee, who historically has been sceptical of Korea’s alliance with the US, wants to use his presidency to improve relations with China, South Korea’s powerful neighbour and trading partner. He has stated several times that South Korea should stay out of a conflict between China and Taiwan.

“We must keep our distance from a China-Taiwan contingency. We can get along with both”, he said during a televised debate last month.

The political advisor Mr Moon, who once served as national security advisor, reiterated Lee’s concerns. “We are worried about America abandoning us, but at the same time we are worried about being entrapped in American strategy to contain and encircle China”, he said. “If the US threatens us, we can let [the forces] go”, he said.

For Mr Revere, the former US diplomat, this combination of Lee, Trump and China threatens to create “the perfect storm”. “The two leaders may find themselves on very different pages and that could be a recipe for a problematic relationship. If this plays out, it would undermine peace and stability in North East Asia”.

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un will no doubt be watching closely, keen to exploit the shifting ground. His nuclear weapons programme is more dangerous than ever, and nothing or no-one has been able to convince him to wind it down – including Donald Trump who, during his first term, was the first US president to ever meet a North Korean leader.

Since returning to office Trump has indicated he would like to resume talks with Kim, which ended without agreement in 2019. In Seoul, there is real concern that this time the pair could strike a deal that is very bad for South Korea.

The fear is that Trump would take an “America first” approach, and ask Kim to stop producing his intercontinental ballistic missiles that threaten the US mainland, without addressing the multiple short-range nuclear weapons pointed at Seoul. And in return, Kim could demand a high price.

Getty Images Donald Trump, in a navy suit and red tie, and Kim Jong Un, in a Mao suit, shaking hands and posing for the camera. Behind them is a blue house.
Donald Trump was the first US president to ever meet a North Korean leader [BBC]

Kim has far more leverage than he did in 2019. He has more nuclear warheads, his weapons are more advanced, and the sanctions that were supposed to put pressure on his regime have all but collapsed, thanks largely to Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader is providing Kim with economic and military support in return for North Korea’s help fighting the war in Ukraine.

This therefore gives Kim the cover to make more audacious requests of the US. He could ask Trump to accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, and agree to a deal that would reduce Pyongyang’s weapons count rather than get rid of them altogether. Another of his requests could likely be for the US to remove some the security it provides South Korea, including the troops.

“North Korea is in the driver’s seat now. The only curve-ball is how much risk President Trump will take”, said Sydney Seiler, who was involved in the 2019 negotiations on the US side. “The idea there might be some sort of troop withdrawal [included in a deal] is really not that far-fetched”.

Mr Seiler stressed that the US would “not leave South Korea in the dust,” but advised South Korea’s new president to “establish a relationship with Trump early on”, and be clear they expect to be part of any process, if talks materialize.

The new president must move quickly on all fronts, added Mr Revere, arguing that Lee’s first homework assignment should be to come up with a list of 10 reasons why South Korea is an indispensable partner and why American dollars are being well spent; reasons that can convince a skeptical and transactional Trump.

Wide shot of a large blue and red ship being built at a construction site. It is surrounded by orange cranes and people walking around the shipyard.
Seoul is hoping it can use its shipbuilding expertise to convince the US it is a valuable partner [BBC]

One Ace card South Korea is hoping to play is its shipbuilding prowess. It builds more vessels than any other country bar China, which is now the world’s dominant ship builder and home to the largest naval fleet. This is a frightening prospect for the US whose own industry and navy are in decline.

Last month I visited South Korea’s flagship shipyard in Ulsan on the south coast – the largest in the world – where Hyundai Heavy Industries builds 40-50 new ships a year, including naval destroyers. Sturdy cranes slotted together sheets of metal, creating vessels the size of small villages.

Seoul is hoping it can use this expertise to build, repair and maintain warships for the US, and in the process convince Washington it is a valuable partner.

“US shipbuilding difficulties are affecting their national security”, said Jeong Woo Maan, head of strategy for Hyundai’s naval and ship unit. “This is one of the strongest cards we have to negotiate with”.

In his campaign for president, Lee Jae-myung declared he did not want to rush into any agreements with Trump. Now in office, he could quickly find himself without this luxury.

[BBC]



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Trump tells BBC that King’s visit could ‘absolutely’ help repair relations with UK

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The King and Queen will travel to the US for a four-day visit beginning on Monday (BBC)

US President Donald Trump has said next week’s state visit from King Charles and Queen Camilla could help repair relations with the UK.

When asked in a phone interview with the BBC whether the visit could help repair the relationship, Trump said: “Absolutely. He’s fantastic. He’s a fantastic man. Absolutely the answer is yes.”

“I know him well, I’ve known him for years,” he said. “He’s a brave man, and he’s a great man. They would absolutely be a positive.”

The president also spoke about his relationship with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer,  who he said could only “recover” if he changed course on immigration.

The King and Queen will travel to the US for a four-day visit beginning on Monday, and will meet with Trump at the White House.

The King will have a private meeting with the president and also deliver an address to Congress.

After two days in Washington DC, they will travel to New York, Virginia and Bermuda before returning to the UK.

The Foreign Office said the trip would mark the 250th anniversary of US independence, and would celebrate a partnership of “shared prosperity, security and history”.

In the five-minute interview on Thursday, Trump was also asked about his relationship with Sir Keir.

The two leaders have appeared at odds over the war in Iran, and the prime minister has faced mounting pressure over his decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, Trump said Lord Mandelson was “a really bad pick” but the prime minister had “plenty of time to recover”.

When asked what he meant by that post, Trump said: “If he opened the North Sea and if his immigration policies became strong, which right now they’re not, he can recover, but if he doesn’t, I don’t think he has a chance.

Trump has repeatedly called on the UK to increase oil and gas extraction in the North Sea.

“I make my decisions based on what’s in the British national interest and not what other people say or do,” Sir Keir said while talking to broadcasters  about the president’s comments on Thursday.

“That is why I took the decision that we would not be dragged into the war in Iran,” he said. “I’m not going to be diverted or deflected from that by what anybody else says.”

(BBC)

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Will another film star be able to sway the election in India’s Tamil Nadu?

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Actor-turned-politician Vijay greets supporters after filing his nomination for the Tamil Nadu state assembly election, in Chennai, India, March 30, 2026 [Aljazeera]

Standing on top of a customised van on a hot and humid afternoon in Tirunelveli, about 600km (373 miles) south of Tamil Nadu’s capital Chennai in southern India, C Joseph Vijay tells his supporters his opponents have joined hands to stop him from becoming the state chief minister.

“My rivals might appear different from outside, but they have only one aim: that Vijay should not become the chief minister,” says the 51-year-old actor-turned-politician to a mammoth crowd that begins to chant his name, which means “victory” in Tamil, in unison.

Tamil Nadu, one of India’s most developed states with impressive human development indices, also has a long history of electing film stars as leaders, some of whom are still revered by people as demigods years after their deaths.

As Tamil Nadu votes on Thursday to elect its 234-member state legislative assembly, Vijay’s bid for power is the latest addition to the state’s trend of film star-politicians, turning a traditionally bipolar battle into a triangular contest.

Vijay Tamil Nadu India
Riding on personal charisma, Vijay has attracted millions of supporters to his rallies [File: Aljazeera]

Vijay entered politics with much fanfare when he launched the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party in 2024, promising to end the decades-old dominance of the governing Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the main opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

Incumbent Chief Minister MK Stalin leads the DMK and its 14-party Secular Progressive Alliance, in which the Indian National Congress is a junior partner. On the other hand, opposition leader Edappadi K Palaniswami of the AIADMK heads the 10-party National Democratic Alliance, which also includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The DMK and the AIADMK identify themselves as Dravidian parties, which derive their names from a powerful political and social justice movement in Tamil Nadu that opposed caste inequalities, championed social reforms, and rejected perceived attempts by India’s more dominant north Indian parties to impose Hindi – and upper-caste Hindu values – on the non-Hindi speaking southern states.

Dravidian parties have held power in Tamil Nadu continuously since 1967, with national parties like the Congress and the BJP playing secondary roles. While the BJP is contesting 27 seats in alliance with the AIADMK, the Congress is fighting for 28 seats as part of the DMK-led coalition.

More than 87 percent of Tamil Nadu’s 72 million people are Hindu, followed by Christians at 6.1 percent and Muslims at 5.8 percent, according to the last census conducted in 2011.

Among Hindus, the so-called “backward” or less-privileged castes constitute 45.5 percent, “extremely backward” castes 23.6 percent, while Dalits are at 20.6 percent. Dalits, formerly referred to as “untouchables”, fall at the bottom of India’s complex caste hierarchy and have faced marginalisation and violence for centuries.

Vijay, son of a Christian filmmaker father and a Hindu mother who is a background singer in films, belongs to the Vellalar community, an affluent agrarian group in Tamil Nadu with both Hindu and Christian members.

Vijay started his film career as a child actor in movies directed by his father. His 1992 debut as a hero, however, in Naalaiya Theerpu (Tomorrow’s Verdict), flopped. Following the setback, his father cast him alongside popular star Vijayakanth — who later founded his own political outfit, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) — in Senthoorapandi (1993), which gave his career a new lease of life.

It was the 2004 film Ghilli (Gutsy), which carried a subtle political undertone, that catapulted Vijay to superstar status. He dropped hints about his political ambitions in the 2013 hit Thalaivaa (Leader), which was launched with the tagline: “Time to Lead”.

Soon, political messaging became central to many of Vijay’s subsequent films. Even the title of his yet-to-be-released Jana Nayagan (People’s Leader) — which he claims will be his final film — alludes to his political aspirations.

Riding on personal charisma, Vijay has attracted millions of supporters to his rallies, despite allegations of poor crowd management, which caused a stampede at one such gathering in September last year, killing 42 people.

He is expected to draw a share of Dalit and minority Christian votes that would have otherwise flowed to the DMK-led coalition. He is also banking on anti-incumbency votes that could have benefited the AIADMK alliance.

Yet analysts say Vijay’s ambition of becoming the next chief minister will not be as easy as the scripted blockbusters he has built his career on, since he faces two opponents with decades of experience in real politics.

That leads political commentator R Kannan to describe Vijay as “both a blessing and a curse” for the two Dravidian coalitions.

“When the AIADMK joined the BJP-led NDA, many predicted the Dravidian party would lose heavily, with minorities and Dalits flocking to the DMK. Vijay’s entry, however, has offered the AIADMK a ray of hope — he is expected to draw a decent share of votes that would otherwise have gone to the DMK,” he said.

“At the same time, he works in the DMK’s favour by siphoning off anti-incumbency votes that might have gone entirely to the AIADMK. For both Dravidian parties, he is at once a blessing and a curse.”

Vijay is aiming to follow the path of illustrious predecessors: Maruthur Gopalan Ramachandran, popularly known as MGR, and his protege, Jayaram Jayalalithaa – Tamil Nadu’s most beloved on-screen pair.

Born into poverty, MGR’s rise to stardom was nothing short of phenomenal. He captured the imagination of Tamil Nadu’s working class, who idolised him in return. From his first superhit, Rajakumari (Princess) in 1947, his films cast him as a champion of the masses, battling oppression and corrupt authority.

MGR launched the AIADMK in 1972 after breaking away from the DMK and served as Tamil Nadu’s chief minister from 1977 to 1987. He introduced several welfare programmes, the most significant being a free meal scheme for schoolchildren in order to eliminate malnutrition and boost school enrolment.

His political heir, Jayalalithaa, was a six-time chief minister between 1991 and 2016, when she became India’s first female state leader to die in office. She is remembered for launching several women-centric programmes, including all-women police stations and subsidised two-wheelers for working women, apart from her work in curbing female infanticide.

India Jayalalithaa
Jayalalithaa offering flowers to a portrait of AIADMK founder MG Ramachandran in Chennai, May 20, 2016 [Aljazeera]

The DMK also has a history of film personalities, including the party’s founder, CN Annadurai, who rose to fame as a pathbreaking scriptwriter with films like Velaikkari (1949), and MGR as the party’s star campaigner and leader before he founded the AIADMK.

Soon, Muthuvel Karunanidhi emerged as another prominent writer, poet and screenwriter with films like Parasakthi (1952), meaning Supreme Power, often cited as a turning point in Tamil cinema. Directed by Krishnan-Panju and written by Karunanidhi, then 28 years old, the film fiercely attacked casteism and social inequality, while propelling the spread of the Dravidian ideology.

Karunanidhi, popularly known as Kalaignar (artist), wrote scripts for more than 75 films that resonated with the struggles of the working class, championing rationalism and social equality.

He won the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election for a record 13 terms and served as the state’s chief minister for five terms between 1969 and 2011. He died at the age of 94 in 2018, with his son, Stalin, taking over as the DMK chief.

Film star-politicians who embraced Tamil identity politics flourished, while those who did not fell by the wayside.

“Successful leaders such as MGR, popularly known as Puratchi Thaalaivar [Revolutionary Leader], Jayalalithaa, who earned the monikers Puratchi Thalaivi [Revolutionary Female Leader] and Amma [Mother], embraced identity politics. Another popular film actor, Sivaji Ganesan, by contrast, could not make the same mark in politics even after he tried,” said Kannan, who has written biographies of MGR and Annadurai.

Narendra Modi and the chief minister of Tamil Nadu state M.K. Stalin
Indian PM Narendra Modi, left, and MK Stalin, chief minister of Tamil Nadu, gesture during the foundation stone laying ceremony of various infrastructure projects, in Chennai, May 26, 2022 [Aljazeera]

In 2005, popular actor Vijayakanth added to the starry mix by launching his DMDK party, another Dravidian political outfit. He made every attempt to position his party as an alternative to the DMK and the AIADMK, but failed. The party won just one seat in 2006 — Vijayakanth’s own — and drew a blank in 2009. Though he went on to become the leader of the opposition in the assembly in 2011, the election reverses forced him to seek alliances. The DMDK, now led by his wife Premalatha, is contesting 10 seats in alliance with the DMK.

Which is where, say analysts, Vijay’s pitch for power is unlikely to make an impact in this election. They say his TVK party does not fall in the long line of Dravidian parties that have a distinct political ideology and programme that appeals to their voters.

“Tamil Nadu is an ideologically and politically evolved state. Issues such as social justice, centre-state relations, and linguistic and cultural identity are paramount here. People will not back a politician without a clear ideology,” Ramu Manivannan, former professor of political science at the University of Madras, told Al Jazeera.

Manivannan said large crowds at Vijay’s rallies should not be mistaken for potential votes. “Film stars always attract crowds. To assume all of them will translate into votes is unfair.”

Vijay’s TVK is rooted in his fan clubs, which thrive on masculine aggression, said S Anandhi, retired professor at the Madras Institute of Development Studies.

“Vijay’s populist rhetoric — defying all authority — appeals strongly to the youth. But he never clarifies what he will actually do in power. He frames it as all established forces being arrayed against young men, and youngsters see this as an opportunity for a new kind of collectivisation. I would call it a dangerous class,” she told Al Jazeera.

Vijay appears to be banking heavily on two voter blocs: younger voters between 18 and 39 years, who number 23 million of the state’s 57 million voters, and women, who account for more than half of them.

At his rallies packed with young people and women, Vijay has alleged that Stalin’s true allies are “bribery and corruption”, framing the contest as a personal battle between himself and the chief minister.

Stalin, for his part, has largely brushed off Vijay’s attacks. “Newly-formed parties have a wrong notion that they can survive by criticising DMK,” he said in a recent interview.

Instead, Stalin has focused his attacks on the Modi government, accusing it of depriving Tamil Nadu of its share of federal funds, and framing the election as a contest between Tamil Nadu and New Delhi – a ploy that simultaneously targets the AIADMK for allying with an “adversary”, the BJP.

The AIADMK’s Palaniswami has countered by saying Stalin raises the centre-state issue only because he has “no achievements of his own to show”.

Despite their ideological differences, all parties are competing heavily on welfare promises in a state known for freebies during elections.

The DMK has pledged to double the monthly women’s allowance to 2,000 rupees ($21), offer 8,000 rupees ($85) in home appliance coupons, and build one million homes for the poor over five years. The AIADMK, also promising a monthly allowance of 2,000 rupees for women, has additionally offered free refrigerators to the poor and a one-time family grant of 10,000 rupees ($106).

Vijay’s TVK, hoping to cash in on the ongoing global fuel crisis, has promised six free LPG cylinders annually, 2,500 rupees ($26.5) monthly support for the female heads of a household, 8gm gold and a silk saree for poor women getting married, 4,000 rupees ($42.5) stipend for unemployed college graduates, and interest-free education loans of up to 2 million rupees ($21,257).

Still, Kannan feels Vijay can at best be a disruptor in the three-cornered contest.

“Vijay’s campaign gained momentum in the final lap. He turned what was a bipolar contest into a three-cornered one. But apart from his personal charisma, he lacks proper organisational machinery. Many of his party’s candidates are unknown faces,” he said.

[Aljazeera]

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South Korean fighter jets collided due to pilots taking pictures, report finds

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The incident involved two F-15K fighter jets, seen here in a file picture [BBC]

South Korean authorities have found that two fighter jets collided mid-air in 2021 because the pilots were taking pictures and videos.

The incident took place while the jets were on a flight mission in the central city of Daegu, according to Seoul’s Board of Audit and Inspection.

The pilots survived with no injuries, but the collision damaged the planes, costing the military 880 million won ($596,000; £440,500) in repairs.

One of the pilots, who has since left the military, was made to pay a fine of 88 million won.

The incident took place because that pilot had wanted to take photos to commemorate his last flight with his military unit.

Taking photos of significant flights was “a widespread practice among pilots at the time”, the audit board said in a report published on Wednesday.

The pilot had declared his intent to do so in a briefing before the flight, according to the report.

He was flying the wingman aircraft and was following the lead aircraft during the mission. While flying back to their base, he started taking pictures using his personal mobile phone.

Upon noticing this, the pilot of the lead aircraft then asked another pilot on his plane to film a video of the wingman aircraft.

The wingman pilot then abruptly flew his jet up higher and flipped it so that it could be better captured on camera. This manoeuvre brought the two planes very close to each other.

To avoid a crash, the lead aircraft tried to rapidly descend. But the two F-15K jets eventually collided, damaging the lead aircraft’s left wing and the wingman aircraft’s tail stabiliser.

South Korea’s air force suspended the wingman pilot, who has since left the military to work for a commercial airline.

Subsequently, the air force sought to fine the wingman pilot 880 million won to cover the full amount of the repair costs. When the pilot appealed against the fine, it prompted an investigation by the audit board.

The wingman pilot acknowledged his sudden manoeuvre led to the collision, but argued that the lead aircraft’s pilot had “tacitly consented” to the manoeuvre since he was aware that filming was taking place.

The audit board eventually ruled that the wingman pilot should only pay a tenth of what the air force sought.

It said that the air force should bear some responsibility for not properly regulating pilots’ personal use of cameras.

The board also took into account that the wingman pilot had a good track record prior to the incident, and that he had managed to prevent further damage by promptly commandeering a safe return of his aircraft to the base.

The report did not mention whether any action was taken against the other pilots involved in the incident.

[BBC]

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