Features
Some oddities of coronavirus mutations
All RNA viruses tend to evolve rapidly; about a million times faster than human genes. Yet for all that, if SARS-CoV-2 stands out at all among them, it is simply because of the markedly slow pace at which it evolves, compared to many of its relatives. For example, it is thought to evolve about five times less rapidly than the biologically related influenza viruses. It has been postulated by Nextstrain, an open-source project that tracks the evolution of pathogens in real time, and other sources as well, that SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating an average of about two mutations per month.
By Dr B. J. C. Perera
MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin), FRCP(Lon), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)
Specialist Consultant Paediatrician
There is a lot of talk as well as considerable uncertainty and apprehension associated with the spectacle of natural and spontaneous changes or ‘mutations’, as they are called, in the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. These trepidations are currently apparent, not only among people but also in the medical circles as well. We have all read several accounts of patients who recovered from Covid-19 only to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 again later, allegedly by a different “strain” of the virus. In late August 2020, came news about the world’s first “documented” or “confirmed” case of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2: a man from Hong Kong, diagnosed in March, had contracted “a new virus variant” circulating in Western Europe during the summer. The very next day, news broke out that two people in Europe also appeared to have been reinfected. After that, it was a story about the first American case of the kind, involving a patient in Nevada, who was said to have suffered worse symptoms the second time around. The preprint study which had not been peer-reviewed, on which those reports were based, seems to no longer be available in the global scientific literature.
Yet, for all that, all this talk about newly mutated, perhaps even more virulent forms of SARS-CoV-2, is most definitely igniting and sparking fear and sowing confusion. The vital question is whether there could be either an increase, or for that matter even a decrease, in the severity of the illness caused by these mutant viruses.
For one thing, it is important to keep in mind that isolated cases of reinfection also happen with other viruses. That fact should not necessarily be alarming. Reinfection usually tells us something only about how the human immune system works. On just the face of it, that occurrence is not definitive evidence that a virus does always change in ways that make it more dangerous. Of course, it is well-known that viruses routinely mutate. However, perhaps more importantly, quite a lot of these changes and modifications to their basic structure are bad for the virus itself or even fatal to the virus, according to some scientific studies. Only a minority of mutations are neutral, and only just a tiny minority of mutations are beneficial to the virus itself. The word “mutation” may sound ominous, but it is a rather boring and well-recognised fact of viral life and its implications may not always be all that malevolent for humans.
Yes, of course, the SARS-CoV-2 is mutating, too. One might justifiably ask “So what?”. The million-dollar question is whether it has become more virulent or more infectious than it was when it was first detected in Wuhan in December 2019? The current evidence suggests that it has not been proven to be more virulent. So what indeed?
Like the viruses that give us influenza or measles, SARS-CoV-2 has a genetic code made up of ribonucleic acid (RNA). But RNA is highly mutable, and since SARS-CoV-2 infects us by using our body’s cells to replicate itself again and again, every time its genome is copied, there is a real chance that an error might creep in. That is the unavoidable basic progress of the life-cycle of the virus. Most mutations actually get lost rather quickly, either by chance, or because they damage some part of the main structure or the functions of the virus. Only a small proportion end up spreading widely or lasting for long periods of time. Mutation may be the fuel of evolution but, especially for an RNA virus, it also is just business as usual. Mutations may not always make the virus comply with the celebrated theory of Charles Darwin of survival of the fittest.
All RNA viruses tend to evolve rapidly; about a million times faster than human genes. Yet for all that, if SARS-CoV-2 stands out at all among them, it is simply because of the markedly slow pace at which it evolves, compared to many of its relatives. For example, it is thought to evolve about five times less rapidly than the biologically related influenza viruses. It has been postulated by Nextstrain, an open-source project that tracks the evolution of pathogens in real time, and other sources as well, that SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating an average of about two mutations per month.
When translated to real time, it means that the forms of the virus circulating today are only about 15 accumulated mutations or so, different from the first version traced to the outbreak in Wuhan in China. This really is a tiny number when one considers the fact that the SARS-CoV-2 genome consists of about 30,000 nucleotide components. The implication is that the viral versions that are prevalent today are at least 99.9 per cent the same as the original index strain from Wuhan. If one were to say it in a more simplified way, for an RNA virus, SARS-CoV-2 is in the slowest lane of evolution.
In fact, from a purely scientific perspective, all these discussions of SARS-CoV-2 having developed into however many different “strains” is misleading. Scientists tend to reserve the word ‘strain’ for versions of a virus that differs from the original in major biological ways. SARS-CoV-2’s different forms are very similar; and technically, it is far better to label them as “variants”.
The coronavirus’s sluggish pace of mutation is good news for us. That is because a virus that evolved more rapidly would have a greater chance of outrunning any vaccines or drugs developed to counter it. Having said that, have even the small mutations so far changed SARS-CoV-2 in any important ways? For example, has it become more deadly? The answer might surprise many. Up to the present time, there is no evidence to suggest that any newer or mutated forms of SARS-CoV-2 have become more virulent or more lethal; nor for that matter, that it has become less so as well.
For example, a recent preprint paper (i.e. not yet peer-reviewed) by Erik Volz, of Imperial College, London, UK, and other co-workers, including members of the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium which analysed 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected in the United Kingdom, found that one particular mutation in the virus, known as D614G, had not increased mortality in patients. There has been much discussion over whether the D614G mutation, which affects the so-called spike protein of the virus, has made SARS-CoV-2 more infectious. In a very broad sense this appears to be so and that contention has led to some of the affected countries to which it has spread, taking drastic steps in locking-down certain areas.
The spike protein sits on the surface of the coronavirus, and that really matters because it’s the part of the virus that attaches itself to the host’s cells. “D614G” is an abbreviation for a change at position 614 of the spike protein. The D614G mutation, which probably initially arose in China, first appeared to become more and more frequent in the outbreak in northern Italy in February. The G614 form of the virus has since spread all over the world and has become the dominant variant. The D614G mutation does seem to have increased the infectivity of the coronavirus, at least in cells grown in laboratories, according to a recent paper by the computational biologist Bette Korber and others, published in the journal ‘Cell’. Apparently based partly on this and some other studies as well, health authorities in various countries have claimed that the G614 form of the coronavirus may be 10 times more infectious than the version first detected in Wuhan.
The more recent UK variant, commonly known as B-1.1.7, is definitely a more contagious variant of the coronavirus. It first emerged in the U.K. in late 2020. It has 23 accumulated mutations. It has acquired 17 of these at once, a feat that has not been seen before. Of particular concern to scientists are eight mutations that affect the gene for a spike protein on the surface of coronaviruses. The worries are the results of the fact that the viruses use the spike protein to grab onto human cells. This mutant strain too appeared to spread faster than other variants in the United Kingdom but has not shown itself to cause more severe disease.
These scientific details could have an abiding effect on the future of this capricious and miserable virus that causes COVID-19. A pandemic virus may disappear from the scene due to one or more of three reasons. The first of these is the notion that a virus that is capable of taking lives would kill a significant number of affected people but those who manage to recover will have some degree of immunity against the very same virus. So, reinfections may be naturally prevented following the first infection with the virus, provided of course that the patient survives the initial onslaught. The second factor is that the virus may induce extensive immunity in a populace, the so-called ‘herd immunity’, either through widespread infection of a large proportion of the population or a similar scenario being enacted through vaccination against the virus. The end result of this is to produce a rather resistant population against the effects of the virus. The third possibility is that repeated mutations would lead to converting the virus into a much less troublesome and less virulent form that it ceases to be a major medical problem and converts the blight into an insignificant and toothless type of an entity. Such impotent strains might even be able to completely overwhelm the more virulent types, with tremendously beneficial implications for the whole of humanity.
These are thought to be at least some of the mechanisms through which the Spanish Flu of 1918 disappeared within a year or so. It was destined never to return in the same life-threatening format for a period of over 100 years or so, right up to the present time.
It has been said that hope springs eternal in the human breast. We do hope and even pray that through some of these postulated mechanisms, the inhabitants of Mother Earth would be spared further turmoil, intense suffering and absolute mayhem that has been their lot for the last year or so, through the doings of this dastardly blight of a nasty coronavirus. We have suffered immeasurably. It is about time that we got a decent break in this fight.
Features
Sri Lanka’s new govt.: Early promise, growing concerns
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s demeanour, body language, and speaking style appear to have changed noticeably in recent weeks, a visible sign of embarrassment. The most likely reason is a stark contradiction between what he once publicly criticised and analysed so forcefully, and what his government is actually doing today. His own recent speeches seem to reflect that contradiction, sometimes coming across as confused and inconsistent. This is becoming widely known, not just through social media, YouTube, and television discussions, but also through speeches on the floor of Parliament itself.
Doing exactly what the previous government did
What is now becoming clear is that instead of doing things the way the President promised, his government is simply carrying on with what the previous administration, particularly Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government, was already doing. Critically, some of the most senior positions in the state, positions that demand the most experienced and capable officers, are being filled by people who are loyal to the JVP/NPP party but lack the relevant qualifications and track record.
Such politically motivated appointments have already taken place across various government ministries, some state corporations, the Central Bank, the Treasury, and at multiple levels of the public service. There have also been forced resignations, bans on resignations, and transfers of officials.
What makes this particularly serious is that President Dissanayake has had to come to Parliament repeatedly to defend and “clean up” the reputations of officials he himself appointed. This looks, at times, like a painful and almost theatrical exercise.
The coal procurement scandal, and a laughable inquiry
The controversy around the country’s coal power supply has now clearly exposed a massive disaster: shady tenders, damage to the Norochcholai power plant, rising electricity bills due to increased diesel use to compensate, a shortage of diesel, higher diesel prices, and serious environmental damage. This is a wide and well-documented catastrophe.
Yet, when a commission was appointed to investigate, the government announced it would look into events going back to 2009, which many have called an absurd joke, clearly designed to deflect blame rather than find answers.
The Treasury scandal, 10 suspicious transactions
At the Treasury, what was initially presented as a single transaction, is alleged to involve 10 transactions, and it is plainly a case of fraud. A genuine mistake might happen once or twice. As one commentator said sarcastically, “If a mistake can happen 10 times, it must be a very talented hand.” These explanations are being treated as pure comedy.
Attempts to justify all of this have sometimes turned threatening. A speech made on May 1st by Tilvin Silva is a case in point, crude and menacing in tone.
Is the government losing its grip?
Former Minister Patali Champika has said the government is now suffering from a phobia of loss of power, meaning it is struggling to govern effectively. Other commentators have noted that the NPP/JVP may have taken on a burden too heavy to carry. Political cartoons have depicted the NPP’s crown loaded with coal, financial irregularities, and political appointments, bending under the weight.
The problem with appointing loyalists over qualified professionals
Appointing own supporters to senior positions is not itself unusual in politics. But it becomes a betrayal of public trust when those appointed lack the basic qualifications or relevant experience for the roles they are given.
A clear example is the appointment of the Treasury Secretary, someone who was visible at virtually every NPP election campaign event, but whose qualifications and exposure/experiences may not match the demands of such a critical position. Even if someone has a doctorate or professorship, the key question is whether those qualifications are relevant to the role, and whether that person has the experience/exposure to lead a team of seasoned professionals.
By contrast, even someone without formal academic credentials can succeed if they have the right skills and surround themselves with advisors with relevant exposure. The real failure is when loyalty to a political party overrides all other considerations, that is a fundamental betrayal of responsibility.
The problem is not unique to this government. In 2015, the appointment of Arjuna Mahendran as Central Bank Governor was a similar blunder. His tenure ended in scandal involving insider dealing and bond market manipulation. However, in that case, the funds involved were frozen and later confiscated by the following government, however legally questionable that process was.
The current Treasury losses, by contrast, may be unrecoverable. Critics say getting that money back would be next to impossible.
The broader damage: Demoralisation of capable officials
When loyalists are placed above competent career officials in key positions, it demoralises the best public servants. Some begin to comply in fear; others lose motivation entirely. The professional hierarchy breaks down. Junior officials start looking over their shoulders instead of doing their jobs. This collective dysfunction is ultimately what destroys governments.
Sri Lanka’s pattern: every government falls
This pattern is deeply familiar in Sri Lankan history. The SWRD Bandaranaike government, which swept to power in 1956 on a wave of popular support, had declined badly by 1959. The coalition government, which came to power reducing the opposition to eight seats, lost in 1977, and, in turn, the UNP, which came in on a landslide, in 1977, crushing the SLFP to just eight seats, suffered a similar fate by 1994.
Mahinda Rajapaksa came to power in 2005 by the narrowest of margins, in part because the LTTE manipulated the Northern vote against Ranil Wickremesinghe. But he was re-elected in 2010 on the strength of ending the war against the LTTE. Still, by 2015, he was voted out, because the benefits of winning the war were never truly delivered to ordinary people, and because large-scale corruption had taken root in the meantime. Gotabaya Rajapaksa didn’t even last long enough to see his term end.
Now, this government, too, is showing early signs of the same decline.
The ideological contradiction at the heart of the NPP
There is another challenge: though the JVP presents itself as a left-wing, Marxist-socialist party, many of those who joined the broader NPP coalition, businesspeople, academics, professionals, do not hold such ideological views. Balancing a left-leaning party with a centre-right coalition is extremely difficult. The inevitable tension between the two pulls the government in opposite directions.
The silver lining, however, is that this has produced a growing class of “floating voters”, people not permanently tied to any party, and that is actually healthy for democracy. It keeps governments accountable. Independent election commissions and civil society organisations have a major role to play in informing these voters objectively.
In more developed democracies, voters receive detailed candidate profiles and well-researched information alongside their ballot papers, including, for example, independent expert analyses of referendum questions like drug legalisation. Sri Lanka is still far from that standard. Here, many people vote the same way as their parents. In other countries, five family members might each vote differently without it being a scandal.
Three key ministries, under the President himself, all in trouble
President Dissanayake currently holds three of the most powerful portfolios himself: Defence, Digital Technology, and Finance. All three are now widely seen as performing poorly. Many commentators say the President has “failed” visibly in all three areas. The justifications offered for these failures have themselves become confused, contradictory, and, at times, just plain pitiable.
The overall picture is one of a government that looks helpless, reduced to making excuses and whining from the podium.
A cautious hope for recovery
There are still nearly three years left in this government’s term. There is time to course-correct, if they act quickly. We sincerely hope the government manages to shed this sense of helplessness and confusion, and finds a way to truly serve the country.
(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)
Features
Cricket and the National Interest
The appointment of former minister Eran Wickremaratne to chair the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee is significant for more than the future of cricket. It signals a possible shift in the culture of governance even as it offers Sri Lankan cricket a fighting possibility to get out of the doldrums of failure. There have been glorious patches for the national cricket team since the epochal 1996 World Cup triumph. But these patches of brightness have been few and far between and virtually non-existent over the past decade. At the centre of this disaster has been the failures of governance within Sri Lanka Cricket which are not unlike the larger failures of governance within the country itself. The appointment of a new reform oriented committee therefore carries significance beyond cricket. It reflects the wider challenge facing the country which is to restore trust in public institutions for better management.
The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne brings a professional administrator with a proven track record into the cricket arena. He has several strengths that many of his immediate predecessors lacked. Before the ascent of the present government leadership to positions of power, Eran Wickremaratne was among the handful of government ministers who did not have allegations of corruption attached to their names. His reputation for financial professionalism and integrity has remained intact over many years in public life. With him in the Cricket Transformation Committee are also respected former cricketers Kumar Sangakkara, Roshan Mahanama and Sidath Wettimuny together with professionals from legal and business backgrounds. They have been tasked with introducing structural reforms and improving transparency and accountability within cricket administration.
A second reason for this appointment to be significant is that this is possibly the first occasion on which the NPP government has reached out to someone associated with the opposition to obtain assistance in an area of national importance. The commitment to bipartisanship has been a constant demand from politically non-partisan civic groups and political analysts. They have voiced the opinion that the government needs to be more inclusive in its choice of appointments to decision making authorities. The NPP government’s practice so far has largely been to limit appointments to those within the ruling party or those considered loyalists even at the cost of proven expertise. The government’s decision in this case therefore marks a potentially important departure.
National Interest
There are areas of public life where national interest should transcend party divisions and cricket, beloved of the people, is one of them. Sri Lanka cannot afford to continue treating every institution as an arena for political competition when institutions themselves are in crisis and public confidence has become fragile. It is therefore unfortunate that when the government has moved positively in the direction of drawing on expertise from outside its own ranks there should be a negative response from sections of the opposition. This is indicative of the absence of a culture of bipartisanship even on issues that concern the national interest. The SJB, of which the newly appointed cricket committee chairman was a member objected on the grounds that politicians should not hold positions in sports administration and asked him to resign from the party. There is a need to recognise the distinction between partisan political control and the temporary use of experienced administrators to carry out reform and institutional restructuring. In other countries those in politics often join academia and civil society on a temporary basis and vice versa.
More disturbing has been the insidious campaign carried out against the new cricket committee and its chairman on the grounds of religious affiliation. This is an unacceptable denial of the reality that Sri Lanka is a plural, multi ethnic and multi religious society. The interim committee reflects this diversity to a reasonable extent. The country’s long history of ethnic conflict should have taught all political actors the dangers of mobilising communal prejudice for short term political gain. Sri Lanka paid a very heavy price for decades of mistrust and division. It would be tragic if even cricket administration became another arena for communal suspicion and hostility. The present government represents an important departure from the sectarian rhetoric that was employed by previous governments. They have repeatedly pledged to protect the equal rights of all citizens and not permit discrimination or extremism in any form.
The recent international peace march in Sri Lanka led by the Venerable Bhikkhu Thich Paññākāra from Vietnam with its message of loving kindness and mindfulness to all resonated strongly with the masses of people as seen by the crowds who thronged the roadsides to obtain blessings and show respect. This message stands in contrast to the sectarian resentment manifested by those who seek to use the cricket appointments as a weapon to attack the government at the present time. The challenges before the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee parallel the larger challenges before the government in developing the national economy and respecting ethnic and religious diversity. Plugging the leaks and restoring systems will take time and effort. It cannot be done overnight and it cannot succeed without public patience and support.
New Recognition
There is also a need for realism. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee does not guarantee success. Reforming deeply flawed institutions is always difficult. Besides, Sri Lanka is a small country with a relatively small population compared to many other cricket playing nations. It is also a country still recovering from the economic breakdown of 2022 which pushed the majority of people into hardship and severely weakened public institutions. The country continues to face unprecedented challenges including the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah and the wider global economic uncertainties linked to conflict in the Middle East. Under these difficult circumstances Sri Lanka has fewer resources than many larger countries to devote to both cricket and economic development.
When resources are scarce they cannot be wasted through corruption or incompetence. Drawing upon the strengths of all those who are competent for the tasks at hand regardless of party affiliation or ethnic or religious identity is necessary if improvement is to come sooner rather than later. The burden of rebuilding the country cannot rest only on the government. The crisis facing the country is too deep for any single party or government to solve alone. National recovery requires capable individuals from across society and from different sectors such as business and civil society to work together in areas where the national interest transcends party politics. There is also a responsibility on opposition political parties to support initiatives that are politically neutral and genuinely in the national interest. Not every issue needs to become a partisan battle.
Sri Lanka cricket occupies a special place in the national consciousness. At its best it once united the country and gave Sri Lankans a sense of pride and international recognition. Restoring integrity and professionalism to cricket administration can therefore become part of the larger task of national renewal. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee, while it does not guarantee success, is a sign that the political leadership and people of the country may be beginning to mature in their approach to governance. In recognising the need for competence, integrity and bipartisan cooperation and extending it beyond cricket into other areas of national life, Sri Lanka may find the way towards more stable and successful governance..
by Jehan Perera
Features
From Dhaka to Sri Lanka, three wheels that drive our economies
Court vacation this year came with an unexpected lesson, not from a courtroom but from the streets of Dhaka — a city that moves, quite literally, on three wheels.
Above the traffic, a modern metro line glides past concrete pillars and crowded rooftops. It is efficient, clean and frequently cited as a symbol of progress in Bangladesh. For a visitor from Sri Lanka, it inevitably brings to mind our own abandoned light rail plans — a project debated, politicised and ultimately set aside.
But Dhaka’s real story is not in the air. It is on the ground.
Beneath the elevated tracks, the streets belong to three-wheelers. Known locally as CNGs, they cluster at junctions, line the edges of markets and pour into narrow roads that larger vehicles avoid. Even with a functioning rail system, these three-wheelers remain the city’s most dependable form of everyday transport.
Within hours of arriving, their importance becomes obvious. The train may take you across the city, but the journey does not end there. The last mile — often the most complicated part — belongs entirely to the three-wheeler. It is the vehicle that gets you home, to a meeting or simply through streets that no bus route properly serves.
There is a rhythm to using them. A destination is mentioned, a price is suggested and a brief negotiation follows. Then the ride begins, edging into traffic that feels permanently compressed. Drivers move with instinct, adjusting routes and squeezing through gaps with a confidence built over years.
It is not polished. But it works.
And that is where the comparison with Sri Lanka becomes less about what we lack and more about what we already have.
Back home, the three-wheeler has long been part of daily life — so familiar that it is often discussed only in terms of its problems. There are frequent complaints about fares, refusals or the absence of meters. More recently, the industry itself has become entangled in politics — from fuel subsidies to regulatory debates, from election-time promises to periodic crackdowns.
In that process, the conversation has shifted. The three-wheeler is often treated as a problem to be managed, rather than a service to be strengthened.
Yet, seen through the experience of Dhaka, Sri Lanka’s system begins to look far more settled — and, in many ways, ahead.
There is a growing structure in place. Meters, while not perfect, are widely recognised. Ride-hailing apps have added transparency and reduced uncertainty for passengers. There are clearer expectations on both sides — driver and commuter alike. Even small details, such as designated parking areas in parts of Colombo or the increasing standard of vehicles, point to an industry slowly moving towards professionalism.
Just as importantly, there is a human element that remains intact.
In Sri Lanka, a three-wheeler ride is rarely just a transaction. Drivers talk. They offer directions, comment on the day’s news, or share local knowledge. The ride becomes part of the social fabric, not just a means of getting from one point to another.
In Dhaka, the scale of the city leaves less room for that. The interaction is quicker, more direct, shaped by urgency. The service is essential, but it is under constant pressure.
What stands out, across both countries, is that the three-wheeler is not a temporary or outdated mode of transport. It is a necessity in dense, fast-growing Asian cities — one that fills gaps no rail or bus system can fully address.
Large infrastructure projects, like light rail, are important. They bring efficiency and long-term capacity. But they cannot replace the flexibility of a three-wheeler. They cannot reach into narrow streets, respond instantly to demand or provide that crucial last-mile connection.
That is why, even in a city that has invested heavily in modern rail, Dhaka still runs on three wheels.
For Sri Lanka, the lesson is not simply about what could have been built, but about what should be better managed and valued.
The three-wheeler industry does not need to be politicised at every turn. It needs steady regulation — clear fare systems, proper licensing, safety standards — alongside encouragement and recognition. It needs to be seen as part of the solution to urban transport, not as a side issue.
Because for thousands of drivers, it is a livelihood. And for millions of passengers, it is the most immediate and reliable form of mobility.
The tuk-tuk may not feature in grand policy speeches or infrastructure blueprints. It does not run on elevated tracks or attract international attention. But on the ground, where daily life unfolds, it continues to do what larger systems often struggle to do — show up, adapt and keep moving.
And after watching Dhaka’s streets — crowded, relentless, yet functioning — that small, three-wheeled vehicle feels less like something to argue over and more like something to get right.
(The writer is an Attorney-at-Law with over a decade of experience specialising in civil law, a former Board Member of the Office of Missing Persons and a former Legal Director of the Central Cultural Fund. He holds an LLM in International Business Law)
by Sampath Perera recently in Dhaka, Bangladesh
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