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Russia after Wagnar Mutiny: Putin’s Politics Redefined

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by Nilantha Ilangamuwa

The Gang of Eight in the US was thrilled, expecting a larger spectacle in the Western alliance’s fight against Russia. The CIA, with whom Ukrainian President Zelenskyy shared everything, assured a heavy bloodbath in Moscow. Alas, the inflated balloon unexpectedly burst, leaving their hope in tatters. But, the West’s lost dream does not mean Russia is a success.

As Alexander Dugin pointed out, “clouds begin to thicken again.” Russia has been shaken, prompting Russians and the Putin administration to rethink and redefine their approach. The so-called Wagner mutiny has exposed the hollowness of the narrative fallacies propagated by the West and its corporate media, which contains blatant falsehoods about perceived enemies of the West.

This is not the first time that mainstream Western media has attempted to exploit such incidents to tarnish designated enemies in an unsightly manner. Are you aware of the infamous Ukrainian figure Stepan Bandera, widely known as a Nazi collaborator responsible for the deaths of over a hundred thousand Jews and Poles, and his followers, such as Mykola Lebed, who deeply collaborated with the CIA to undermine the Soviet Union in Ukraine? Declassified government reports have revealed that Ukraine has served as a staging ground for the U.S. to weaken and threaten Moscow for nearly 80 years.

In 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski, former U.S. national security adviser, emphasized the significance of Ukraine as a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard. Did you know that Vladimir Putin, as the newly elected leader of the Russian Federation, officially requested to join NATO in 2000, but the Clinton administration vehemently refused?

More recently, in December 2022, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted that the West never intended to push for the implementation of the Minsk agreements and instead used them as a pretext to buy time for NATO to arm and train the Ukrainian armed forces. Shortly after the outbreak of the war, Russia and Ukraine reached a framework agreement to end the conflict, with Ukraine pledging not to join NATO. However, the objections of the U.S. and U.K. prevented its implementation. Subsequently, we witnessed the so-called 36-hour mutiny, led by Wagner, which perhaps stands as the shortest armed mutiny in Russian history.

However, the Western narratives not only failed miserably but also further damaged their own reputation. The inconsistent stances of the US administration regarding this mutiny from the outset indicate a lack of understanding of Russia’s socio-political reality. Despite this, US companies have capitalized on the conflict, holding Ukraine hostage, while Europe has endured unprecedented destruction.

It is crucial for the opposing parties to accurately grasp the geopolitical dynamics of Russia, as Europe needs Russia. Russia is the largest state in the world, spanning 17.1 million square kilometers across eleven time zones. It has been led by the same leader for 23 years and boasts the world’s fifth-largest military, with 1.15 million active-duty troops and at least two million reserve personnel.

Contrary to the analysis presented by Western media, the head of the Wagner private military company, who challenged several high-ranking officials of the Russian army, along with approximately two thousand supporters, had no intention of invading Moscow, overthrowing President Putin, or plunging Russia into civil war. Even disregarding the facts, a basic understanding of mathematics would debunk these false interpretations. However, for the stubborn, egocentric hyper-minds, true comprehension remains elusive, with truth always serving as their archenemy.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner’s company, is a self-proclaimed general skilled at perpetuating small lies to facilitate grand scams. His primary objective is to maximize profit, not govern Russia. He never opposed President Putin or the administration as a whole. A closer examination of his messages, assuming their authenticity, reveals that his public protest stems from a dispute with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. This crisis has been developing internally for years since Shoigu objected to awarding certain military contracts to Wagner.

This so-called mutiny may be an unintended consequence of a private military unit receiving more preferential treatment than the regular army during operations. Alternatively, it could be the result of conflicts arising from the substantial funding—over one billion dollars—allocated to Wagner by the central government in just one year. Prigozhin is a businessman who has amassed significant wealth through his private army. According to reports, his declared personal wealth is US$1.5 billion and continues to flourish.

Putin’s decisive response showcases his strong leadership, prioritizing the state’s structure over personal ties. Upholding the state’s institutions, Putin safeguards Russian society and recognizes their crucial role in his leadership.

Another intriguing observation is Prigozhin’s endorsement of President Alexander Lukashenko’s proposals. President Lukashenko is widely recognized as one of President Putin’s most trusted politicians. This raises the question of what motivated Prigozhin to place his trust in Lukashenko and choose Belarus as a retreat. It remains to be seen whether Wagner utilized the mercenary army to strengthen Lukashenko’s position, as he faces political instability. Only time will provide the answer to this question.

This agreement raises doubts about whether the incidents in Russia over the past weekend were orchestrated as part of a carefully planned drama. If so, even individuals with basic knowledge of military operations and strategies have doubts about whether the strengthening of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, which stretches approximately 1,084 km, was in preparation for a decisive military operation in the future. As the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu stated in his book “The Art of War,” ‘all warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.’ Putin may have grasped this strategy long ago during his time in the KGB.

However, the Wagner ‘mutiny’ raises a significant social issue: the potential social divide that can arise when private military companies challenge the state’s legitimate military forces. This issue is particularly important for the future of the region, as the Ukraine-Russia war has transformed into a conflict between two ideologically distinct worlds rather than two countries.

The Wagner incident sheds light on the Russian people and their social opinions. While the Wagner mercenary army undeniably maintains a level of popularity, it is important to note that the company heavily invests in PR campaigns and utilizes troll farms to bolster its image. Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion has proven to be more protracted than initially anticipated. But, historical precedent shows that Russians have endured prolonged wars before, albeit reluctantly.

Despite this, a formidable political alternative capable of challenging Putin’s leadership has yet to emerge. Western countries have made attempts to create viable alternatives since 1991, but their lack of understanding of Russian society has hindered their success. Destabilizing Russia’s internal structures can weaken its strength, a fact that former KGB operative Putin is well aware of. To dismantle Putin’s administration, one must employ individuals with a profound understanding of his character. Thus, when Prigozhin voiced his protest, Western countries and their pro-Ukraine media hailed him as a hero.

Whether the Wagner mutiny is factual or merely a scene from a drama, it highlights the challenges faced by states that rely on private armies. Two years prior to President Putin’s military operations in Ukraine, Eric Prince, the former head of the US mercenary company previously known as Blackwater (later renamed Xe Services and then Academi in 2011), held a meeting with top officials of Ukrainian President Zelensky on February 23, 2020. During this meeting, Prince proposed that his private army was ready to engage in war against Russia.

Eric’s mercenary army first gained public attention during the US invasion of Iraq, has been involved in operations across various regions, including Africa. Although Eric Prince’s mission in Ukraine failed, there are other private military companies actively involved in conflicts against Russia. Reports suggest that officers in these companies can earn as little as two thousand US dollars per day, highlighting the lucrative nature of such operations.

However, the detrimental impact of maintaining private armies on official state forces should not be underestimated. In response, the United Nations adopted the International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing, and Training of Mercenaries on December 4, 1989, which came into force on October 20, 2001. It is worth noting that some of the world’s largest and most powerful armies, including those of the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom, have not ratified this convention. This inconsistency raises questions about the true stance of these countries on the use of mercenaries and private military companies.

In March 2024, Russia will hold its presidential elections, eight months ahead of the US race. It will be President Putin’s first election since the 2020 constitutional amendment. The upcoming winter holds immense significance for all parties involved and may determine the outcome of the war. The impact of his invasion of Ukraine and the presence of mercenary forces throughout his tenure will undoubtedly shape the presidential election’s outcome, a crucial task in times of war. Whether the Wagner incident is genuine or orchestrated, it has given President Putin’s politics a new dimension. As one of Russia’s longest-serving leaders, Putin faces a critical juncture, and the choices he makes will undoubtedly shape the future, for better or worse.



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Samarawickrama’s rise gives Sri Lanka a second pillar

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Harshitha Samarawickrama's advance as a T20 batter has opened up a new frontier in Sri Lanka's batting performance [Cricinfo]

Harshitha Samarawickrema was 14 when Sri Lankan women’s cricket first pricked the national consciousness. She had already been playing cricket for her school, Gothami Balika Vidyalaya, but had largely pursued cricket merely for the sake of playing a sport, and also because she had enjoyed watching the men’s team play. But watching Sri Lanka defeat England in a thriller at the 2013 World Cup stirred up a deeper yearning.

“I’d watched all of the matches at that World Cup actually – that was the first time those kind of matches were telecast,” Samarawickrama said once. “That’s when I decided I was going to play and win matches for Sri Lanka one day.”

That victory against England was a new dawn for Sri Lanka’s women for two reasons. First up it was the highest-profile victory on their ledger until then, marking an unexpected high point in a World Cup in which little was generally expected of the team. But it also marked the rocket-powered arrival of Chamari Athapaththu, who top-scored with 62 to help set up the chase.

Thirteen years later, Samarawickrama has not only fulfilled her promise to herself, she has also helped Sri Lanka bring to life the promise of that 2013 campaign. Athapaththu, who has since has become the superstar around which Sri Lanka’s cricket orbits, has never known a more consistent batting collaborator than Samarawickrama. In T20Is, the pair have put on 1,202 runs together – easily the best for Sri Lanka. Though both are lefties who revel in pressure, that’s about where the similarities end – Athapaththu having grown up idolising the big-hitting of Sanath Jayasuriya, while Samarawickrama had been a disciple of the Kumar Sangakkara school of left-handed batting. (Samarawickrama still tries to replicate that famous bent-kneed cover drive, though she invariably sprinkles a little of of her own flair to the endeavour.) Oppositions have found this combination difficult to contend with, Athapaththu commanding through the legside and brutal on errors of length, while Samarawickrama flits around the crease and carves boundaries through cover and point.

It has been clear for years now that Sri Lanka’s chances in pretty much any match depend primarily on Athapaththu runs. But Samarawickrama’s advance as a T20 batter has now opened up a new frontier in the team’s batting performance. Ideally, what Sri Lanka want is not merely big runs from their captain, but a strong partnership between Athapaththu and Samarawickrama. In victories, the Athapaththu-Samarawickrama stand averages 41.38.

More tellingly, a good Samarawickrama innings has become as reliable a predictor of a strong Sri Lanka showing as a good Athapaththu innings. In T20I wins, Athapaththu averages 40.18 and strikes at 131, in comparison to 17.94 and a strike rate of 94 in losses. Samarawickrama’s corresponding numbers are even more stark. In Sri Lanka victories, Samarawickrama averages 44.08 with a strike rate of 109. In losses those numbers are 16.94 and 87. Other Sri Lanka batters have leveled up in recent years too – Kavisha Dilhari, Nilakshika Silva and Hasini Perera having become more frequent contributors, while 20-year-old Vishmi Gunaratne has also showed promise. But 11 years into her international career, Samarawickrama now has a serious body of work.

Samarawickrama had been modest in the shortest format in 2025, but she arrives at the Women’s T20 World Cup 2026 having had a good six months. Against Bangladesh in April, Samarawickrama had cracked 61 off 35, then 49 off 29, in back-to-back matches that Sri Lanka won (Samarawickrama was top-scorer on both occasions). This was in addition to having put up good numbers in the ODI series that preceded the T20Is. Her 36 not out off 34 in a comfortable warm-up win against Netherlands suggests she is still riding on that form.

This is the first T20 World Cup in which serious runs are expected of Samarawickrama, and if history is much to go by, she is not the sort to be daunted by occasion. Samarawickrama’s finest moments as a Sri Lanka cricketer had come in their most-celebrated win of all, in the Asia Cup final of 2024, against India. Typically, that chase of 166 in Dambulla had been propelled by an 87-run Athapaththu-Samarawickrama stand, but when Athapaththu was dismissed, Samarawickrama ensured she remained at the crease until the winning moments, hitting 69 not out off 51, ultimately collecting the Player-of-the-Match award.

If 2013 was a new dawn inspiring a fresh generation of Sri Lanka cricketers, 2024 was the year in which the team hammered its stake into the ground, breaking through into an entirely new galaxy of recognition and acclaim at home. Frequently batting in the shadow of Athapaththu, but always charting her own path, Samarawickrama has grown into a leader.

[Cricinfo]

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US’ anti-migrant stance set to intensify tensions in Western camp

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Migrant boats land on Western beaches. Credit: PA

The announcement by the US authorities of an anti-migrant stance during a recent commemoration in France of the epochal D-Day Landings of June 6, 1944, ought to strike impartial observers as a supreme irony. Whereas what should have been expected was a vibrant celebration of the beginning of the process of Western Europe freeing itself decisively from Nazi or fascist control during the crucial stages of World War Two, this was not to be.

What the world heard instead was a call to contemporary Western Europe to arm itself against a seemingly rising and threatening migrant presence in the region. In other words, the migrant must be despised and ‘shown the door’.

Instead of a commemoration that rejoiced in the flourishing of liberal democracy and its values what one got was a strong affirmation of fascism and racial chauvinism. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vented his spleen against the migrant or foreigner presence in Europe reportedly thus: ‘Sadly today different European beaches are stormed by different dangerous ideologies.’ To ‘beaches in Spain and Italy and Greece and Bulgaria, boats and men arrive. When will European capitals do something about that invasion?’

While at the outbreak of World War Two it was Nazi Germany that was doing the invading and bringing some principal European countries under its suzerainty, this time around we are being given to understand that it’s migrants to the West who are seeking to colonize the latter. It goes without saying that such inflammatory rhetoric would have the deleterious effect of keeping racial tensions alive in the West and jeopardize all possibilities of the countries concerned cementing and maintaining social stability.

The Trump administration gives the impression of taking a leaf from the politically underdeveloped regions of the South to keep the US polity stable and united. In South Asia, for instance, we are not short of ambitious demagogues who use what is referred to as the ‘race card’ to gather unto themselves a following and thereby further their political fortunes. By seeking to stir and sustain anti-migrant hysteria, the Trump administration is also essentially replicating Nazi Germany’s policy of anti-Semitism. That is, fascism is very much alive in the US under President Trump.

Such efforts at churning racial hysteria at this juncture in the US should not come as a surprise. For all intents and purposes, the Trump administration is nowhere near achieving its aims in West Asia, for instance, in the short term. It has failed to bring Iran down to its knees, as it hoped to do, but is adopting the expedient of keeping the world guessing and confused on what it is doing in the region, since it cannot withdraw from the theatre in a hurry without losing face.

While perhaps working out an escape strategy the Trump administration it seems, is hoping to maintain its following at home intact and silent by playing on their racial biases and insecurities. Hence, the anti-foreigner campaign.

Simultaneously, the Trump administration will need to keep a close eye on how economic pressures on the domestic front are panning out. Anti-administration sentiments first break to the surface at meal tables. On this score, the news cannot be good because the average US family’s spending power ought to be shrinking on account of rising energy and oil prices. Consequently, it would not be a bad idea to keep the attention of the US consumer diverted by adeptly playing ‘the race card’; once again, lessons from intellectually bankrupt Southern politicians are coming in handy.

To be sure such comparisons many politicians in vibrantly democratic countries would find quite unflattering. But the stark truth is that racism cannot be tolerated in civilized societies and those politicians who resort to it risk being branded as racists of the first degree. In fact they could be seen as being on par with the likes of German dictator Adolph Hitler and his close collaborators.

However, on the question of migrant policy the Trump administration would likely be at polar opposites with the most vibrant of liberal democracies of the West. This will be the case with the UK, France and Italy for instance. The latter continue to keep their doors open to legal migrants and they are likely to view a virtual blanket ban on migrants as reprehensible.

Moreover, in the foremost democracies of the West debates are vibrantly ongoing on the need to keep racism or any hint of it completely outlawed in the public plane. There is the case of the UK, for instance, where the authorities continue to emphatically pinpoint their adherence to the principle of anti-racism in the conduct of public affairs.

One proof of the above was the parliamentary debate relating to the killing of 18-year-old Henry Nowak in Southampton. Police handling of the victim came in for sharp scrutiny by particularly the opposition in the House of Commons but there seemed to be a consensus over the main political divide that the matter should not be politicized.

Moreover, the UK authorities stressed in the House the government’s strict adherence to the policy of non-racism. It was also pointed out that British institutions set up to manage racism at the national, county and neighbourhood levels, for example, were very much intact. In fact, Sri Lanka could gain considerably by studying and implementing locally, legislation modeled on the relevant UK laws if it is in earnest when it speaks of ‘reconciliation’.

Accordingly, it is highly unlikely that Western Europe would ‘cave in’, so to speak, to US pressure on issues related to migration. The liberal democracies of Western Europe in particular would remain for the foreseeable future migrant-welcoming, multi-ethnic and plural democracies.

Nor is it likely that Western Europe would be passively receptive to US demands that it drastically increases its defense spending to meet the latter’s aims. Within the Western fold the EU is remaining committed to backing Ukraine, for instance, in its ongoing armed resistance to the Russian invasion and it is not giving any indication of being deferent to US pressure.

However, although tensions would continue to bristle within US-Western Europe relations on the above and numerous other matters of contention it would be far too premature to announce a parting of company between the two sections of the West. In that sense, the post-World War Two order remains essentially intact. There are still many things in common between the two, particular on the economic plane, that will ensure the continuance of the partnership.

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A decade among Yala’s ghosts of gold

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YM75 "James" surveys his territory from a tree-top vantage point, demonstrating the leopard's commanding presence in the landscape.

The first rays of dawn creep over the ancient rocks of Yala. The Indian Ocean glimmers in the distance, and the wilderness slowly awakens. Somewhere amid the scrub jungle, a pair of amber eyes scans the landscape.

For wildlife conservationist and leopard researcher Milinda Wattegedara, moments such as these have defined more than a decade of dedication to one of Sri Lanka’s most iconic creatures—the Sri Lankan leopard.

What began as fascination evolved into a remarkable conservation journey that has transformed the understanding of Yala’s leopard population and placed Sri Lanka firmly on the global wildlife research map.

“Long before I ever lifted a camera, leopards had already captured my imagination,” says Wattegedara. “What fascinated me was not merely their beauty but the complexity of their lives—their hunting strategies, movements, reproductive behaviour and their remarkable ability to adapt to changing environments.”

That fascination led to the birth of the Yala Leopard Diary in 2013, an ambitious long-term project dedicated to documenting individual leopards and unraveling the mysteries surrounding their lives.

For many visitors, a leopard sighting is a fleeting thrill. For Wattegedara and his team, every encounter is a chapter in an ongoing scientific story.

“Each photograph was never the end of an encounter,” he explains. “It was the beginning of deeper questions. How did a particular leopard use the landscape? How did its behaviour change with the seasons? What environmental pressures shaped its decisions?”

These questions drove years of meticulous fieldwork. Every sighting was carefully recorded with details including location, habitat, behaviour, date and time. Photographs were analysed to identify individual animals through unique spot patterns, allowing researchers to distinguish one leopard from another with remarkable accuracy.

What followed was groundbreaking.

YF77 “Shelly” pauses in quiet observation, embodying the alertness
and grace that define Yala’s leopard population.

From 2013 to 2026, the Yala Leopard Diary identified an astonishing 189 individual leopards within the Yala Block 1. The research revealed a leopard density of approximately 0.524 leopards per square kilometre, making Yala one of the highest leopard-density landscapes ever recorded anywhere in the world.

Such findings have elevated Yala’s status among global wildlife researchers.

Nestled between the Indian Ocean and a mosaic of habitats, ranging from rocky outcrops to dense scrub forests, Yala offers an ecological stage unlike any other.

Here, leopards are photographed silhouetted against ocean horizons, perched atop ancient granite formations, resting on tree branches and stalking prey across sunlit grasslands.

The images tell stories of extraordinary lives.

There is Haminee, a devoted mother navigating the challenges of raising cubs in a competitive landscape. There is Lucas, one of Yala’s most frequently documented males, striding confidently across the Gonalabba Plains with the vast ocean forming an unforgettable backdrop.

There is Ruki demonstrating the species’ incredible strength by hoisting prey onto branches, and Shelly, quietly surveying her surroundings in a moment of feline vigilance.

Together, these individuals have become familiar characters in a living wilderness drama.

YM31 “Ruki” secures prey on a branch, illustrating the remarkable strength and coordination of the Sri Lankan leopard.

Recognising the immense value of long-term documentation, Wattegedara joined forces with fellow researchers Dushyantha Silva, Raveendra Siriwardana and Mevan Piyasena to establish the Yala Leopard Centre in 2020.

Located at the Palatupana entrance to the Yala National Park, the centre is believed to be the world’s first information facility dedicated exclusively to leopards.

“The centre serves as a repository of knowledge, accumulated through years of observation and research,” Wattegedara says. “Our goal is to connect visitors with the science behind conservation and foster a deeper appreciation of these magnificent animals.”

The project’s impact extends far beyond Sri Lanka’s borders.

Research arising from the Yala Leopard Diary has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals. One study introduced an innovative framework for identifying individual leopards, while another documented an extraordinary and previously unrecorded case of a leopard cub being consecutively adopted by two different adult females—first a relative and later an unrelated leopardess.

The discovery attracted international scientific attention and highlighted the complexity of leopard social behaviour.

Yet for Wattegedara, the most important lesson remains one of humility.

“One conclusion has become increasingly clear,” he reflects. “Our understanding of these leopards remains far from complete. We are only beginning to understand how they live, adapt and persist in one of Sri Lanka’s most dynamic protected landscapes.”

YF15 “Hope” descends Rukvila Rock at dawn, showcasing the agility and adaptability of Yala’s leopards.

His words underscore an essential conservation truth: the more we learn about nature, the more mysteries emerge.

As Sri Lanka navigates growing environmental challenges, the Yala Leopard Diary stands as a shining example of what sustained observation, scientific curiosity and public engagement can achieve.

Beyond the stunning photographs and remarkable sightings lies something even more valuable—a growing body of knowledge capable of informing future conservation decisions and ensuring that future generations inherit a wilderness where leopards continue to roam free.

For more than a decade, Wattegedara and his colleagues have followed the tracks of Yala’s elusive predators through dust, rain and scorching heat.

Their work has revealed that every leopard has a story, every sighting has significance and every photograph can contribute to conservation.

And perhaps, most importantly, it has reminded us that the golden ghosts of Yala still have many secrets left to share.

By Ifham Nizam

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