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Ranil: A SWOT Appraisal

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by Kumar David

Likewise Prime Minister RW is not a slave to the past, nor is he a free agent. What he can do is restrained by economic and political inheritances. By far the weightiest are economic conditions, the most important of these stretch back 70 years. But there is also a different genre of follies – abuse of power, mismanagement and plunder – pertaining mainly to the Mahinda and Gotabaya presidencies. The predicament now is that we as a nation are consuming more than we produce and have for decades survived on borrowed money and foreign debt. I say this not as moral sentiment but plain unadorned fact. To rescue the nation from this wretched economic inheritance is above the capacity and beyond the remit of RW’s Interim Administration (IA) – a weakness, a “W”. Nevertheless there are things that can be done within the parameters of a ‘merely’ interim administration. (SWOT = Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats)

Unexpectedly, consumption has been slashed by steep inflation embodying increases in fuel and food prices. Future consumption too has been hacked by the loss in value, if measured in dollar terms, of private savings in funds, trusts, equities and banks, the future value of fixed pension payments, and probably by a decline in property and fixed asset values when measured in dollars. VAT has been increased and taxes on the affluent will rise for sure. LKR has fallen to less than 40% in value measured in gold in the last three years. Some losses will be recouped by the salaried classes (workers) by trade union action, and mass agitation will force future governments to provide a degree of relief; but real wages have fallen (this is one item in “labour market restructuring”, the other item easy-firing, won’t be so easy to do). The non-salaried classes (rural folk, urban and semi-urban petty bourgeoisie) are up the gum tree. The four day working week amounts to a big cut in government jobs since recruitment will soon fall. Overall, consumption has been lowered for a long time to come. Hence one of the IMF’s pound-of-flesh demands has come to pass without help from RW.

RW in a perverse sense is a lucky fellow; the crisis has played into his hands by getting some “economic restructuring” done; public consumption has been slashed and RW spared the opprobrium of having to do it. This can perhaps be counted as an “S” or strength. To what extent it will translate to a smaller deficit in the primary fiscal-deficit (revenue minus expenditure, leaving aside debt servicing) cannot yet be figured out but there will be a degree of relaxation in the deficit. Will RW be able to sell this scenario to the public? That will depend on the answers to other questions I discuss anon.

There is the second crisis in the economic domain; deficits in the trade account and in balance of payments. So much has been written on the nitty-gritty details that no explication is needed here. The bottom line is that to survive we have to import less, export more and to export more we have to make more. And we have to make things more efficiently (high-browed economists call it total factor productivity, but such terms are not for yokels like you and me). This is a huge challenge beyond the remit of RW’s IA. Whatever medium-term programme, good or bad, he attempts will be challenged, fairly or unfairly, as having no electoral mandate.

Gota (GR) had a mandate which he mucked-up in incredible style, the devil himself couldn’t have done worse, but this is no argument for RW to govern long-term without a mandate. If 21A is pushed through without excessive emasculation, if RW and his IA, despite a third of his Cabinet being dunces and another third crooks, gets some relief from shortages, and given that Sajith and his SJB have their tails tucked deep between their legs, a liberal-democratic alliance led by RW (Sajith has lost his shine) has a moderate chance at an election in the absence of anything else. The Left has to await its time and Rajapaksa-side MPs will hightail it to Timbuctoo before they are hanged from post-election lampposts. This has to be counted as an “O” for opportunity, but not as a Strength since uncertainties are large and many.

The biggest “O” or opportunity that RW has is if he can sweet-talk the IMF, World Bank (can he get that fossilised old fool GL to shut up?), India and even China to be ever more generous. It seems this is happening, but slowly. We are told that the IMF wanted RW appointed because he could sweet-talk this side and that. Of the twin challenges, shortages and prices, it is not possible for RW do much about prices for the reasons stated in my second paragraph, but if he can kiss feet, lick bums and ease shortage of fuel, medicines and parripu, even at a price, for say three months, the economy may get past imminent shipwreck. Overcoming gridlock on shortages, especially fuel (petrol, diesel and cooking-gas) is RW’s best short-term bet, but petrol queues are still long and sullen

The threat “T” to a liberal-democratic option is political. SJB leaders are immature in judgment and Sajith, Ranjith Madum’b, Eran, Harsha and Fonny cannot think out of personalised (RW vs. Sajith) sectarian boxes. They are unable to reason around a bigger liberal-democratic agenda; their minds need to ripen beyond personalities since the pettiness of these leaders is a threat to their class. (Champika has fled to seclusion and self-immolation). As a leftist I should be happy you may say. Well yes and no; it exposes how effete that class is, but I don’t want its bungling to land us all in chaos. An analogy: I am an opponent of neo-imperialist USA-hooked NATO and abhor brutal Orthodox Christian non-Marxist Putin, but I don’t want their mutual bungling to precipitate hunger, prolong dependence on environmentally dirty energy and aggravate fears of nuclear conflict. Macron is right, we have live with these flesh-eaters for now.

These threats could precipitate the fall of RW’s IA. There is disarray in state and government. There is confusion and conflict between different branches of state as evidenced by the Aeroflot affair, the inability of the CID to “locate” Johnston Fernando for ages and much more. All factions of government are pulling in different directions and Mahinda is stirring the pot. Holy Mackerel! An oligarch-bookie with a controversial past is now Investment Minister; whose plant, MR’s or GR’s, and for what purpose? It is not certain whether the Central Bank and the Finance Minister-PM are on the same page; pity because the new Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe, I am told, is an able person. The President has morphed into an idle nobody, sitting on his haunches while the practical tasks of governance devolve on this most unlikely of prime ministers. The immediate threat to RW’s premiership therefore comes from political disarray in governance. Meanwhile it is creditable that he is attempting to build bridges to Aragalaya, but what if all goes belly-up? Basil and the military – unlikely. An explosion in the country at large – possible. Draft-21A permits dissolution of parliament two and a half years after its election; if adopted the current parliament can be dissolved forthwith and fresh elections called. I can think of nothing better.

This succinctly sums it all; what more can verbal diarrhoea elucidate? You will find many good-reads, even if a bit long, to entertain, exasperate and to leak who-done-it info, which faction, which knave and tit-bits. A longish but entertaining one is Austin Fernando’s “The senseless killing of 19A by 21A” in Colombo Telegraph, 6 June. Another useful summary of why 21A as drafted is not good enough (allows too much power to remain in the hands of the president) is Jehan Perera’s “Real Change not only Constitutional Fixing” in Island and CT on 7th/6th June. Bedlam and muddling in the nation’s higher places leaves one more confused than enlightened. Do any MPs and Ministers matter? No, they will only be dredged up for mockery as they fade into of collective oblivion.

I will digress for a paragraph to deplore the quality of political “analyses” currently offered by nearly all commentators. Since RW’s appointment it’s the same hackneyed theme, without pause, to measure trends, gauge conflicts and explore dynamics. The universal storyline is “GR made RW prime minister to stooge for him, forestall prosecution and cover up the rackets of the (Raja)Paksas. Now RW is dutifully fulfilling his assignment”. Commentators who report day-before-yesterday’s news as today’s analysis cannot see an inch ahead of their noses! Dialectics has never been the strong point of media ‘analysts’. The dynamic right now is utterly different; it is superficial collaboration but mostly rivalry between GR and RW and it seems RW is scoring more points. Basil has been driven out, in horse-trading over 21A RW is to get more powers, GR concedes he is a sloppy fail-case and declares as he limps out that he will not run again. And the knock-out blow is this: the IMF, India and global finance-capital have made it clear they prefer RW.

Let me sum up and conclude with the usual simple formula: Gota Go; Improve on 21A; Dissolve parliament; Hold elections soon; Abolish the executive presidency. Surely an adequate short-term wish-list for now and all but the final item are short-term doable. My economic programme? Oh come on, be patient, some other time.



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US’ anti-migrant stance set to intensify tensions in Western camp

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Migrant boats land on Western beaches. Credit: PA

The announcement by the US authorities of an anti-migrant stance during a recent commemoration in France of the epochal D-Day Landings of June 6, 1944, ought to strike impartial observers as a supreme irony. Whereas what should have been expected was a vibrant celebration of the beginning of the process of Western Europe freeing itself decisively from Nazi or fascist control during the crucial stages of World War Two, this was not to be.

What the world heard instead was a call to contemporary Western Europe to arm itself against a seemingly rising and threatening migrant presence in the region. In other words, the migrant must be despised and ‘shown the door’.

Instead of a commemoration that rejoiced in the flourishing of liberal democracy and its values what one got was a strong affirmation of fascism and racial chauvinism. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vented his spleen against the migrant or foreigner presence in Europe reportedly thus: ‘Sadly today different European beaches are stormed by different dangerous ideologies.’ To ‘beaches in Spain and Italy and Greece and Bulgaria, boats and men arrive. When will European capitals do something about that invasion?’

While at the outbreak of World War Two it was Nazi Germany that was doing the invading and bringing some principal European countries under its suzerainty, this time around we are being given to understand that it’s migrants to the West who are seeking to colonize the latter. It goes without saying that such inflammatory rhetoric would have the deleterious effect of keeping racial tensions alive in the West and jeopardize all possibilities of the countries concerned cementing and maintaining social stability.

The Trump administration gives the impression of taking a leaf from the politically underdeveloped regions of the South to keep the US polity stable and united. In South Asia, for instance, we are not short of ambitious demagogues who use what is referred to as the ‘race card’ to gather unto themselves a following and thereby further their political fortunes. By seeking to stir and sustain anti-migrant hysteria, the Trump administration is also essentially replicating Nazi Germany’s policy of anti-Semitism. That is, fascism is very much alive in the US under President Trump.

Such efforts at churning racial hysteria at this juncture in the US should not come as a surprise. For all intents and purposes, the Trump administration is nowhere near achieving its aims in West Asia, for instance, in the short term. It has failed to bring Iran down to its knees, as it hoped to do, but is adopting the expedient of keeping the world guessing and confused on what it is doing in the region, since it cannot withdraw from the theatre in a hurry without losing face.

While perhaps working out an escape strategy the Trump administration it seems, is hoping to maintain its following at home intact and silent by playing on their racial biases and insecurities. Hence, the anti-foreigner campaign.

Simultaneously, the Trump administration will need to keep a close eye on how economic pressures on the domestic front are panning out. Anti-administration sentiments first break to the surface at meal tables. On this score, the news cannot be good because the average US family’s spending power ought to be shrinking on account of rising energy and oil prices. Consequently, it would not be a bad idea to keep the attention of the US consumer diverted by adeptly playing ‘the race card’; once again, lessons from intellectually bankrupt Southern politicians are coming in handy.

To be sure such comparisons many politicians in vibrantly democratic countries would find quite unflattering. But the stark truth is that racism cannot be tolerated in civilized societies and those politicians who resort to it risk being branded as racists of the first degree. In fact they could be seen as being on par with the likes of German dictator Adolph Hitler and his close collaborators.

However, on the question of migrant policy the Trump administration would likely be at polar opposites with the most vibrant of liberal democracies of the West. This will be the case with the UK, France and Italy for instance. The latter continue to keep their doors open to legal migrants and they are likely to view a virtual blanket ban on migrants as reprehensible.

Moreover, in the foremost democracies of the West debates are vibrantly ongoing on the need to keep racism or any hint of it completely outlawed in the public plane. There is the case of the UK, for instance, where the authorities continue to emphatically pinpoint their adherence to the principle of anti-racism in the conduct of public affairs.

One proof of the above was the parliamentary debate relating to the killing of 18-year-old Henry Nowak in Southampton. Police handling of the victim came in for sharp scrutiny by particularly the opposition in the House of Commons but there seemed to be a consensus over the main political divide that the matter should not be politicized.

Moreover, the UK authorities stressed in the House the government’s strict adherence to the policy of non-racism. It was also pointed out that British institutions set up to manage racism at the national, county and neighbourhood levels, for example, were very much intact. In fact, Sri Lanka could gain considerably by studying and implementing locally, legislation modeled on the relevant UK laws if it is in earnest when it speaks of ‘reconciliation’.

Accordingly, it is highly unlikely that Western Europe would ‘cave in’, so to speak, to US pressure on issues related to migration. The liberal democracies of Western Europe in particular would remain for the foreseeable future migrant-welcoming, multi-ethnic and plural democracies.

Nor is it likely that Western Europe would be passively receptive to US demands that it drastically increases its defense spending to meet the latter’s demands. Within the Western fold the EU is remaining committed to backing Ukraine, for instance, in its ongoing armed resistance to the Russian invasion and it is not giving any indication of being deferent to US pressure.

However, although tensions would continue to bristle within US-Western Europe relations on the above and numerous other matters of contention it would be far too premature to announce a parting of company between the two sections of the West. In that sense, the post-World War Two order remains essentially intact. There are still many things in common between the two, particular on the economic plane, that will ensure the continuance of the partnership.

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A decade among Yala’s ghosts of gold

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YM75 "James" surveys his territory from a tree-top vantage point, demonstrating the leopard's commanding presence in the landscape.

The first rays of dawn creep over the ancient rocks of Yala. The Indian Ocean glimmers in the distance, and the wilderness slowly awakens. Somewhere amid the scrub jungle, a pair of amber eyes scans the landscape.

For wildlife conservationist and leopard researcher Milinda Wattegedara, moments such as these have defined more than a decade of dedication to one of Sri Lanka’s most iconic creatures—the Sri Lankan leopard.

What began as fascination evolved into a remarkable conservation journey that has transformed the understanding of Yala’s leopard population and placed Sri Lanka firmly on the global wildlife research map.

“Long before I ever lifted a camera, leopards had already captured my imagination,” says Wattegedara. “What fascinated me was not merely their beauty but the complexity of their lives—their hunting strategies, movements, reproductive behaviour and their remarkable ability to adapt to changing environments.”

That fascination led to the birth of the Yala Leopard Diary in 2013, an ambitious long-term project dedicated to documenting individual leopards and unraveling the mysteries surrounding their lives.

For many visitors, a leopard sighting is a fleeting thrill. For Wattegedara and his team, every encounter is a chapter in an ongoing scientific story.

“Each photograph was never the end of an encounter,” he explains. “It was the beginning of deeper questions. How did a particular leopard use the landscape? How did its behaviour change with the seasons? What environmental pressures shaped its decisions?”

These questions drove years of meticulous fieldwork. Every sighting was carefully recorded with details including location, habitat, behaviour, date and time. Photographs were analysed to identify individual animals through unique spot patterns, allowing researchers to distinguish one leopard from another with remarkable accuracy.

What followed was groundbreaking.

YF77 “Shelly” pauses in quiet observation, embodying the alertness
and grace that define Yala’s leopard population.

From 2013 to 2026, the Yala Leopard Diary identified an astonishing 189 individual leopards within the Yala Block 1. The research revealed a leopard density of approximately 0.524 leopards per square kilometre, making Yala one of the highest leopard-density landscapes ever recorded anywhere in the world.

Such findings have elevated Yala’s status among global wildlife researchers.

Nestled between the Indian Ocean and a mosaic of habitats, ranging from rocky outcrops to dense scrub forests, Yala offers an ecological stage unlike any other.

Here, leopards are photographed silhouetted against ocean horizons, perched atop ancient granite formations, resting on tree branches and stalking prey across sunlit grasslands.

The images tell stories of extraordinary lives.

There is Haminee, a devoted mother navigating the challenges of raising cubs in a competitive landscape. There is Lucas, one of Yala’s most frequently documented males, striding confidently across the Gonalabba Plains with the vast ocean forming an unforgettable backdrop.

There is Ruki demonstrating the species’ incredible strength by hoisting prey onto branches, and Shelly, quietly surveying her surroundings in a moment of feline vigilance.

Together, these individuals have become familiar characters in a living wilderness drama.

YM31 “Ruki” secures prey on a branch, illustrating the remarkable strength and coordination of the Sri Lankan leopard.

Recognising the immense value of long-term documentation, Wattegedara joined forces with fellow researchers Dushyantha Silva, Raveendra Siriwardana and Mevan Piyasena to establish the Yala Leopard Centre in 2020.

Located at the Palatupana entrance to the Yala National Park, the centre is believed to be the world’s first information facility dedicated exclusively to leopards.

“The centre serves as a repository of knowledge, accumulated through years of observation and research,” Wattegedara says. “Our goal is to connect visitors with the science behind conservation and foster a deeper appreciation of these magnificent animals.”

The project’s impact extends far beyond Sri Lanka’s borders.

Research arising from the Yala Leopard Diary has been published in internationally recognised scientific journals. One study introduced an innovative framework for identifying individual leopards, while another documented an extraordinary and previously unrecorded case of a leopard cub being consecutively adopted by two different adult females—first a relative and later an unrelated leopardess.

The discovery attracted international scientific attention and highlighted the complexity of leopard social behaviour.

Yet for Wattegedara, the most important lesson remains one of humility.

“One conclusion has become increasingly clear,” he reflects. “Our understanding of these leopards remains far from complete. We are only beginning to understand how they live, adapt and persist in one of Sri Lanka’s most dynamic protected landscapes.”

YF15 “Hope” descends Rukvila Rock at dawn, showcasing the agility and adaptability of Yala’s leopards.

His words underscore an essential conservation truth: the more we learn about nature, the more mysteries emerge.

As Sri Lanka navigates growing environmental challenges, the Yala Leopard Diary stands as a shining example of what sustained observation, scientific curiosity and public engagement can achieve.

Beyond the stunning photographs and remarkable sightings lies something even more valuable—a growing body of knowledge capable of informing future conservation decisions and ensuring that future generations inherit a wilderness where leopards continue to roam free.

For more than a decade, Wattegedara and his colleagues have followed the tracks of Yala’s elusive predators through dust, rain and scorching heat.

Their work has revealed that every leopard has a story, every sighting has significance and every photograph can contribute to conservation.

And perhaps, most importantly, it has reminded us that the golden ghosts of Yala still have many secrets left to share.

By Ifham Nizam

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Glamour, music and community spirit …

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Sri Lankans are quite active, all around the globe.

News has just come my way, from Glasgow, in Scotland, where the glamour of masks, music, dancing, and community spirit, came together, in spectacular fashion, at Masquerade Night, bringing together members of the Sri Lankan community for an evening filled with music, fashion, food and entertainment.

Organised by Mahesh Balaaratchi (DJ Mowgli) together with Sulochana Asmone, Hiroshini, Prasad, Ashi, and Shawn, the evening provided guests with an opportunity to socialise, enjoy live entertainment, and celebrate in a unique and elegant setting.

Guests arrived from 6:00 pm, dressed in formal attire and decorative masks, creating a colourful and vibrant atmosphere throughout the venue.

DJ Mowgli: The main
organiser of
Masquerade Night

There was a delicious selection of Sri Lankan cuisine and street food, which proved popular throughout the evening.

The buffet offered a variety of traditional favourites, giving attendees a taste of home while adding to the festive atmosphere.

Entertainment was provided by DJ Mowgli, whose performance kept the audience engaged throughout the night. His playlist featured a mixture of popular favourites, dance classics, and cultural music, remixed for a younger generation.

One of the highlights of the evening was the Baila session, which brought a distinctly Sri Lankan flavour to the event.

The Baila segment highlighted the importance of preserving and celebrating cultural traditions, while bringing people together through music and dance.

As familiar rhythms filled the room, guests enthusiastically took to the dance floor, creating one of the most memorable moments of the night.

The crowd was described as lively, energetic, and welcoming, with attendees embracing the spirit of the masquerade theme while enjoying the opportunity to reconnect with friends and meet new people. The family-friendly atmosphere ensured that guests of all ages could take part in the celebrations.

The festivities continued until midnight and included a range of competitions and entertainment.

Children and adults alike participated in fashion shows, while guests competed for awards in several ‘Best Dressed’ categories.

The creativity and effort displayed in both costumes and formal wear added an extra layer of excitement to the evening.

As the final songs played and guests prepared to leave, many were already looking forward to the next Event Night.

The evening’s proceedings were handled by Sam, Mahela and Isuru.

Their enthusiasm reflected the growing popularity of these gatherings and their increasing importance, within the local community calendar.

A series of community events has continued to grow in popularity among the Sri Lankans in Glasgow, with Halloween Night coming up on 31st October.

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