Features
Presidential Stakes and Aragalaya Memory Bells
BY Rajan Philips
Nominations for the presidential elections were formalized on Thursday, leaving 37 days on the countdown to the national vote on September 21. Thirty nine candidates are in the fray and one of them, President Wickremasinghe, has been assigned the ‘Gas Cylinder’ symbol for the ballot. No more candidates or elephant rides for the UNP. Mr. Wickremesinghe is standing as an independent candidate, the last of the Lake House Mohicans, so to speak.
He could use the Gas Cylinder symbol to remind voters how as the caretaker President he has restored the supplies of goods that were a scarcity under the previous regime. Hopefully, the government will make sure that there are no gas cylinder explosions in people’s kitchens. That would be tragic for the households and could be electorally costly for the candidate.The gas cylinder could have been the only reminder to Sri Lanka’s aragalaya experience were it not for the events in Bangladesh that started ringing political memory bells in Colombo. Sri Lanka’s aragalaya experience and outcomes were far less severe or far reaching than what Bangladesh has now just gone through.
Not that Sri Lanka’s aragalaya had some demonstration effect in Bangladesh; Imran Khan had earlier refused to emulate it in Pakistan. It is only that the aragalaya experience here provides a prism for Sri Lankans to view events elsewhere, make comparative sense of them, and to be reminded that it is easier for bad history to repeat itself when nothing is learnt (say from the aragalaya experience) and everything is forgotten.
There is superficial comparison between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. In Bangladesh, mounting protests in spite of brutal put down efforts by then Prime Minister Sheik Hasina forced her to flee the country seven months after winning a fourth consecutive election victory. Everyone in the Awami League government has disappeared according to the newly installed interim government leader Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and one of the many critics and opponents of Ms. Hasina who have been virtually exiled or imprisoned during her long rule.
All of them are free now and the daughter of the father of nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahuman, is now a political fugitive. Her remarkable achievements on the economic front notwithstanding. Her sanctuary in India will be a constant factor in the regional backbiting over the internal causes and the external catalysts of Bangladesh’s sudden woes.
The causes and consequences of the aragalaya in Sri Lanka were far more straightforward and were far more easily contained. To his credit, Gotabaya Rajapaksa did not order a brutal put down but that could also be because of his awareness of his own limitations. He left the country but was allowed to come back and live rather well at public expense. His nephew, Namal Rajapaksa is now a presidential candidate following his nomination at a family poruwa. Remarkable were the absentees, including Gotabaya Rajapaksa. That could be one of the more lasting effects of aragalaya – fissures in the Rajapaksa political edifice. Namal Rajapaksa could be the last of the lesser Mohicans in Sri Lankan politics. His first election candidacy could be his last, unlike Ranil Wickremesinghe who is running in his last election hoping to savour his first victory.
Polling Pointers
According to the latest (June 2024) polling data for “General Election Voting Intention” from the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), the SJB is leading the pack at 38% of voting intention, followed by the JVP/NPP at 26%, the SLPP at 16%, and the UNP at 7%. The other entities account for less than five percent each: ITAK – three percnt, SLMC – two percent, CWC – two percent, SLFP – one percent and others – four percent. There are technical problems with the sampling and methodology of the survey. Yet the periodical results could be indicative of any trends in the support levels.
Also, the answers to the survey question, “If there was a General Election today, which party would you vote for?” are not directly translatable as support for the candidates in the presidential election. Especially for President Wickremesinghe, who is contesting as an independent candidate hoping to garner votes from all voting constituents across the board, and not just seven percent of the votes based on the support for the UNP.
That said, inasmuch as it is the IHP poll that gave the JVP/NPP its early momentum at 31%, it is reasonable to interpret the new numbers as indicating a declining or flattening trend for the JVP/NPP. The JVP/NPP support is deemed to have dipped by five p.c. and the SJB support to have increased by one p.c. Yet 26% is quite a jump from the 3.2 p.c. and 3.8 p.c. support levels that the JVP/NPP registered at the 2019 presidential election and the 2020 parliamentary election.
There is no question that the JVP/NPP support has since ballooned to impressive proportions, but the question is whether the swelling support is enough to propel Anura Kumara Dissanayake to be one of the top two candidates in the September election. I say ‘top two candidates’ because it is almost impossible that any one of the three main candidates could be elected on the first ballot, and so the race is really to be one of the top two for reckoning in the second count of preferential votes.
Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe have opposite reasons to be happy with the IHP polling for all its limitations. The SJB’s 38% support is significantly higher than its 24% vote share in the 2020 parliamentary election. It is obviously lower than the 42% share that Sajith Premadasa polled in the 2019 presidential election, and Mr. Premadasa might look to the 42% mark to be optimistic about reaching upward of 35% on the first count. That is if only Ranil Wickremesinghe would let him have it so easily.
President Wickremesinghe would be looking to slice off as much as he could from the UNP votes that Sajith Premadasa garnered for himself in the 2019 presidential election. How much would it be is the question. Mr. Wickremesinghe might consider it to be positive that the UNP’s support of seven p.c. in the IHP poll is more than thrice the 2.15 p.c. vote share the grand old party managed to collect in the 2020 parliamentary election. As an independent candidate, Mr. Wickremesinghe would be looking to pilfer votes across the board, but the two main vote banks that he could draw from are the SJB (which is the old UNP account) and the SLPP. RW would have been hoping for a maximum draw from the SLPP account which may have been possible if the Rajapaksas had endorsed his (RW’s) candidacy.
But with Mahinda and Basil Rajapaksa betraying Ranil and settling on Namal Rajapaksa to carry the family torch, RW’s earlier calculations might now need some revisiting. At the same time, the 16% support level for the SLPP in the IHP polling, from the highs of 52% in the 2019 presidential election and 59% in the 2020 parliamentary election, is indicative of the erosion of SLPP support in the country, or among the Sinhalese. Much of it likely would have migrated to the JVP, and they are not likely to trek to Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Put another way, Ranil Wickremesinghe might be starting with the smallest vote bank and the weakest organization for mobilizing votes. While all three candidates would look for support from the Tamil, Muslim and the Malayagha Tamil votes, not to mention the Sinhala Catholic vote, RW could be the one most dependent on them. Already, the SLMC has indicated its support for Sajith Premadasa, and the CWC for Ranil Wickremesinghe. Where the Tamil vote will fall or if the ITAK will openly support a candidate is still unknown.
A common Tamil candidate if there were to be one could be in a race to the bottom with Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe who might present himself as the only authentic Sinhala candidate in the mix. He apparently has the support of a third of the SLFP organization although none of the organizational claimants have any vote base left in the country. It would be impossible to discern where the pre-2005 SLFP voters are now and could be a problem for Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Now to voter preferences for the second and third best. With 39 candidates on the ballot, each voter can vote for any one of them and could also indicate her/his second and third preferences. As no candidate is likely to get more than 50% of the vote on the first count, the winner will have to be determined from the top two candidates. This will be done by eliminating the other 37 candidates and counting the second and third preferences marked on the eliminated ballots for either one of the top two candidates. Notably, the second/third preferences marked on the ballots of the top two candidates will not be counted against each other. Whoever gets the higher total after adding the preferential votes will be declared the winner.
Given their common voter allegiances, those who vote for Sajith Premadasa would likely cast their second preference for Ranil Wickremesinghe, and vice versa. So, if the two of them end up as the top two candidates, then their mutually preferential votes will be of no value. On the other hand, if one of them and Anura Kumara Dissanayake end up as the top two candidates, Mr. Dissanayake could be at a disadvantage when preferential votes are counted. The constitution also provides for drawing lots to determine the winner if two or more candidates end up with the same number of votes. That would be a long shot, but the three main candidates could end up with totals that are quite close. Picking a winner out of them without a runoff election is hardly a democratic exercise. That only begs the question: why have this system at all!
Features
Mannar’s silent skies: Migratory Flamingos fall victim to power lines amid Wind Farm dispute
By Ifham Nizam
A fresh wave of concern has gripped conservationists following the reported deaths of migratory flamingos within the Vankalai Sanctuary—a globally recognised bird habitat—raising urgent questions about the ecological cost of large-scale renewable energy projects in the region.
The incident comes at a time when a fundamental rights petition, challenging the proposed wind power project, linked to India’s Adani Group, remains under examination before the Supreme Court, with environmental groups warning that the very risks they highlighted are now materialising.
At least two flamingos—believed to be part of the iconic migratory flocks that travel thousands of kilometres to reach Sri Lanka—were found dead after entanglement with high-tension transmission lines running across the sanctuary. Another bird was reportedly struggling for survival.
Professor Sampath Seneviratne, a leading ornithologist, expressed deep concern over the development, noting that such incidents are not isolated but indicative of a broader and predictable threat.
“These migratory birds depend on specific flyways that have remained unchanged for centuries. When high-risk infrastructure, like poorly planned power lines, intersect these routes, collisions become inevitable,” he said. “What we are witnessing now could be just the beginning if proper mitigation measures are not urgently implemented.”
Environmentalists argue that the Mannar region—particularly the Vankalai wetland complex—is one of the most critical stopover sites in South Asia for migratory waterbirds, including flamingos, pelicans, and various species of waders. The sanctuary’s ecological value has also supported a niche with growing eco-tourism sector, drawing birdwatchers from around the world.
Executive Director of the Centre for Environmental Justice, Dilena Pathragoda, said the incident underscores the urgency of judicial intervention and stricter environmental oversight.
“This tragedy is a direct consequence of ignoring scientifically established environmental safeguards. We have already raised these concerns before court, particularly regarding the location of transmission infrastructure within sensitive bird habitats,” Pathragoda said.
“Renewable energy cannot be pursued in isolation from ecological responsibility. If due process and proper environmental impact assessments are bypassed or diluted, then such losses are inevitable.”
Conservation groups have long cautioned that the installation of wind turbines and associated grid infrastructure—especially overhead transmission lines—within or near sensitive habitats could transform these landscapes into lethal zones for avifauna.
An environmental activist involved in the ongoing legal challenge said the latest deaths validate earlier warnings.
“This is exactly what we feared. Development is necessary, but not at the cost of biodiversity. When projects of this scale proceed without adequate ecological assessments and safeguards, the consequences are irreversible,” the activist stressed.
The debate has once again brought into focus the delicate balance between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation. While wind energy is widely promoted as a clean alternative to fossil fuels, experts caution that “green” does not automatically mean “harmless.”
Professor Seneviratne emphasised that solutions do exist, including rerouting transmission lines, installing bird diverters, and conducting comprehensive migratory pathway studies prior to project approval.
“Globally, there are well-established mitigation strategies. The issue here is not the absence of knowledge, but the failure to apply it effectively,” he noted.
The timing of the incident is particularly worrying. Migratory flamingos typically remain in Sri Lanka until late April or May before embarking on their return journeys. Conservationists warn that if hazards remain unaddressed, larger flocks could face similar risks in the coming weeks.
Beyond ecological implications, experts also highlight potential economic fallout. Wildlife tourism—especially birdwatching—contributes significantly to local livelihoods in Mannar.
Repeated reports of bird deaths could deter eco-conscious travellers and damage the region’s reputation as a safe haven for migratory species.
Environmentalists are now calling for immediate intervention by authorities, including a temporary halt to high-risk operations in sensitive zones, pending a thorough environmental review.
They stress that protecting animal movement corridors—whether elephant migration routes or avian flyways—is a fundamental pillar of modern conservation.
As the controversy unfolds, one question looms large: can Sri Lanka pursue sustainable energy without sacrificing the very natural heritage that defines it?
Pathragoda added that for now, the sight of fallen flamingos in Mannar stands as a stark reminder that development, if not carefully planned, can carry a heavy and irreversible cost.
Features
‘Weaponizing’ religion in the pursuit of power
A picture of US President Donald Trump apparently being prayed for by supporters, appearing in sections of the international media, said it all loud and clear. That is, religion is being flagrantly leveraged or prostituted by politicians single-mindedly bent on furthering their power aspirations.
Although in the case of the US President the trend took on may be an exceptionally graphic or dramatic form, the ‘weaponizing’ of religion is nothing particularly new, nor is it confined to only religiously conservative sections of the West. For example, in South Asia it is an integral part of politics. The ‘South Asian Eight’ are notorious for it and it could be unreservedly stated that in Sri Lanka, the latter’s ethnic conflict would be more amenable to resolution if religion was not made a potent weapon by ambitious politicians of particularly the country’s South.
The more enlightened sections of Christian believers in the US may not have been able to contain their consternation at the sight of the US President apparently being ‘blessed’ by pastors claiming adherence to Christianity. Any human is entitled to be blessed but not if he is leading his country to war without exhausting all the options at his disposal to end the relevant conflict by peaceful means.
More compounded would be his problem if his directives lead to the death of civilians in the hundreds. In the latter case he is stringently accountable for the spilling of civilian blood, that is, the committing of war crimes.
However, the US along with Israel did just that in the recent bombings of Iran, for instance. The majority of the lives lost were those of civilians. If the US President is endowed with a Christian conscience he would have paused to consider that he is guilty of ordering the taking of the life of another human which is forbidden in the teachings of Jesus Christ.
Moreover, the ‘pastors’ praying over the US President should have thought on the above lines as well. May be they were in an effort to curry the President’s favour which is as blame-worthy as legitimizing in some form the taking of civilian lives. Apparently, the realisation is not dawning on all Christian conservatives of the US that some of these ‘pastors’ could very well be the proverbial false prophets and the latter are almost everywhere, even in far distant Sri Lanka.
However, the political reality ‘on the ground’ is that the Christian Right is a stable support base of the Republican Right in the US. Considering this it should not come as a surprise to the seasoned political watcher if the Christian Right, read Christian fundamentalists, are hand-in-glove, so to speak, with President Trump. But it is a scathing indictment on these rightist sections that they are all for perpetrating war and destruction and not for the fostering of peace and reconciliation. Ideally, they should have impressed on their President the dire need to make peace.
That said, political commentators should consider it incumbent on themselves to point out that religion is being ‘weaponized’ in Iran as well. Theocratic rule in Iran has been essentially all about perpetuating the power of the clerical class. The reasons that led to the Islamic Revolution in Iran are complex and the indiscreet Westernization of Iran under the Shah dynasty is one of these but one would have expected Iran to develop from then on into a multi-party, pluralistic democratic state where people would be enjoying their fundamental rights, as enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, for example.
Moreover, Iran should have taken it upon itself to be a champion of world peace, in keeping with its Islamic credentials. But some past regimes in Iran had vowed to virtually bomb Israel out of existence and such regional policy trajectories could only bring perpetual conflict and war. Considering the current state of the Middle East it could be said that the unfettered playing out of these animosities is leading the region and the world to ‘reap the whirlwind’, having recklessly ‘sowed the wind’.
However, religious fundamentalism-inspired conflict and war has spread well beyond the Middle East into almost every region since 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. So much so, knowledgeable opinion now points out that religious identity has come to replace nationalism as a principal shaper of international politics or “geopolitics”, as quite a few sections misleadingly and incorrectly term it.
Elaborating on the decisive influence of religious identity, the well known and far traveled Western journalist Patrick Cockburn says in his authoritative and comprehensive book titled, ‘The Age of Jihad – Islamic State and the Great War for the Middle East’ at page 428 in connection with the war in Chechnya ; ‘If nationalism was not entirely dead, it no longer provided the ideological glue necessary to hold together and motivate people who were fighting a war. Unlike the Islamic faith, it was no longer a belief or a badge of identity for which people would fight very hard.’ (The book in reference was published by VERSO, London and New York).
In his wide coverage of Jihadist Wars the world over Cockburn goes on to state that today a call from a cleric could motivate his followers to lay down no less than their lives for a cause championed by the former. The 9/11 catastrophe alone should convince the observer that this is indeed true.
However, as often pointed out in this column, there is no alternative but to foster peace and reconciliation if a world free of bloodshed and strife is what is being sought. Fortunately we are not short of illustrious persons from the East and West who have shone a light on how best to get to a degree of peace. Besides Mahatma Gandhi of India, who was the subject of this column last week, we have former President of Iran Mohammad Khatami, who made a case for a ‘Dialogue of Civilizations’ rather than a ‘Clash of Civilizations’.
The time is more than ripe to take a leaf from these illustrious personalities, for, the current state of war in the Middle East has raised the possibility of a war that could transcend regional boundaries. The antagonists are obliged to exhaust all the peaceful options with the assistance of the UN system. Besides, war cannot ever have the blessings of the sane.
Features
Venerable Rahula Thera’s 35-year green mission and national Namal Uyana
It was 35 years ago, on March 28, 1991, that Venerable Rahula Thera, then a young monk, embarked on a journey to the Na forest in Ulpathagama, Palagama, in the Anuradhapura District. Today, three and a half decades later, this mission stands as living proof of the enduring bond between Buddhist philosophy and the natural world.
Marking the 35th year of this green mission, Rahula Thera’s relentless dedication has transformed the National Namal Uyana into an environmental landmark admired not only across Sri Lanka but around the globe, as well.
When studying the life of Venerable Rahula Thera, one cannot ignore the profound connection between Buddhism and the environment. Buddhism is a philosophy deeply attuned to nature. The historical use of the sacred “Na Ruka” by all four Buddhas: Mangala Buddha, Sumana Buddha, Revata Buddha, and Sobhita Buddha — for enlightenment —demonstrates that from time immemorial, Buddhism has maintained a sacred bond with the Na tree. From the birth of Siddhartha to his enlightenment, the propagation of the Dharma, and even the great Parinirvana, all of these milestones unfolded in verdant, living landscapes.
Venerable Rahula Thera did not embark on the Namal Uyana mission seeking government support or personal gain. His commitment sprang from a deep devotion to the Buddha’s teachings on grove cultivation. A grove cultivator is one who spreads compassion for nature. As the Vanaropa Sutta teaches:
Venerable Rahula Thera reclaimed Namal Uyana which was then under the control of timber smugglers and treasure hunters. The term “Wanawasi” does not merely mean living in a forest; it signifies finding rest and enlightenment through nature, free from the destructive roots of greed, sin, and delusion.
Another defining aspect of Venerable Rahula Thera’s 35-year mission is the purification of the human mind. He has consistently taught the thousands who visit Namal Uyana that a person who loves a tree will never harm another human being. As the Dhamma proclaims:
It is important to remember that Venerable Rahula Thera devoted his life, without fear, speaking the truth and taking necessary action, tirelessly advancing the national mission he began. From 1991 to the present, he has worked with every government elected by the people, maintaining impartiality and independence from political ideology. Yet, he never hesitated to raise his voice fearlessly against any individual, of any rank or party, who committed wrongdoing.
Religious and Social Mission
The National Namal Uyana is not merely a forest; it is a magnificent heritage site, dating back to ancient times. Scattered across the landscape are boundary walls, the remains of ancient monastery complexes, and stone carvings believed to date back to the reign of King Devanampiyatissa. In earlier centuries, this sacred land had served as a meditation sanctuary for hundreds of monks. The name “National Namal Uyana,” by which this ecological and archaeological treasure is known today, was introduced by Venerable Rahula Thera in 1991. The government’s later recognition of the site as the National Namal Uyana stands as a significant achievement for both religion and national heritage.
Venerable Rahula Thera is a monk who has lived a life of renunciation. A striking example of this is his decision not to assume the position of Chief Incumbent of the National Namal Uyana Viharaya, instead entrusting the temple to the Ramanna Nikaya and its trustees. In doing so, he set a precedent for the contemporary Sangha. The Thera himself stated that he was merely the trustee of Namal Uyana, not its owner.
Legacy and Continuing Inspiration
The 35th anniversary of Venerable Wanawasi Rahula Thera’s arrival at Namal Uyana is not merely the commemoration of a period of time; it is a message of nature to future generations. Through his work, the Thera revived the ancient Hela tradition of loving trees and venerating the environment as something sacred. This religious and environmental mission remains unforgettable.
The revival experienced by Namal Uyana, after the arrival of Venerable Wanawasi Rahula Thera, is beyond simple description. Some of the major accomplishments achieved under his leadership include:
* Securing and protecting the largest Rose Quartz (Rosa Thirivana) reserve in South Asia.
* Restoring the Na forest spread across hundreds of acres, providing shelter to numerous rare plants and animal species.
* Transforming the area into a living centre for environmental education, offering practical learning experiences for thousands of schoolchildren and university students.
* Drawing the attention of world leaders and international environmentalists to Sri Lanka’s unique environmental heritage.
In recognition of his immense contribution to environmental conservation, Venerable Rahula Thera was honoured with the Presidential Environment Award and the Green Award in 2004—a significant moment in his life. Yet the Thera himself has always remained devoted to the work rather than the recognition it brings, making such appreciation even more meaningful.
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