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Presidential Stakes and Aragalaya Memory Bells

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BY Rajan Philips

Nominations for the presidential elections were formalized on Thursday, leaving 37 days on the countdown to the national vote on September 21. Thirty nine candidates are in the fray and one of them, President Wickremasinghe, has been assigned the ‘Gas Cylinder’ symbol for the ballot. No more candidates or elephant rides for the UNP. Mr. Wickremesinghe is standing as an independent candidate, the last of the Lake House Mohicans, so to speak.

He could use the Gas Cylinder symbol to remind voters how as the caretaker President he has restored the supplies of goods that were a scarcity under the previous regime. Hopefully, the government will make sure that there are no gas cylinder explosions in people’s kitchens. That would be tragic for the households and could be electorally costly for the candidate.The gas cylinder could have been the only reminder to Sri Lanka’s aragalaya experience were it not for the events in Bangladesh that started ringing political memory bells in Colombo. Sri Lanka’s aragalaya experience and outcomes were far less severe or far reaching than what Bangladesh has now just gone through.

Not that Sri Lanka’s aragalaya had some demonstration effect in Bangladesh; Imran Khan had earlier refused to emulate it in Pakistan. It is only that the aragalaya experience here provides a prism for Sri Lankans to view events elsewhere, make comparative sense of them, and to be reminded that it is easier for bad history to repeat itself when nothing is learnt (say from the aragalaya experience) and everything is forgotten.

There is superficial comparison between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. In Bangladesh, mounting protests in spite of brutal put down efforts by then Prime Minister Sheik Hasina forced her to flee the country seven months after winning a fourth consecutive election victory. Everyone in the Awami League government has disappeared according to the newly installed interim government leader Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and one of the many critics and opponents of Ms. Hasina who have been virtually exiled or imprisoned during her long rule.

All of them are free now and the daughter of the father of nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahuman, is now a political fugitive. Her remarkable achievements on the economic front notwithstanding. Her sanctuary in India will be a constant factor in the regional backbiting over the internal causes and the external catalysts of Bangladesh’s sudden woes.

The causes and consequences of the aragalaya in Sri Lanka were far more straightforward and were far more easily contained. To his credit, Gotabaya Rajapaksa did not order a brutal put down but that could also be because of his awareness of his own limitations. He left the country but was allowed to come back and live rather well at public expense. His nephew, Namal Rajapaksa is now a presidential candidate following his nomination at a family poruwa. Remarkable were the absentees, including Gotabaya Rajapaksa. That could be one of the more lasting effects of aragalaya – fissures in the Rajapaksa political edifice. Namal Rajapaksa could be the last of the lesser Mohicans in Sri Lankan politics. His first election candidacy could be his last, unlike Ranil Wickremesinghe who is running in his last election hoping to savour his first victory.

Polling Pointers

According to the latest (June 2024) polling data for “General Election Voting Intention” from the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), the SJB is leading the pack at 38% of voting intention, followed by the JVP/NPP at 26%, the SLPP at 16%, and the UNP at 7%. The other entities account for less than five percent each: ITAK – three percnt, SLMC – two percent, CWC – two percent, SLFP – one percent and others – four percent. There are technical problems with the sampling and methodology of the survey. Yet the periodical results could be indicative of any trends in the support levels.

Also, the answers to the survey question, “If there was a General Election today, which party would you vote for?” are not directly translatable as support for the candidates in the presidential election. Especially for President Wickremesinghe, who is contesting as an independent candidate hoping to garner votes from all voting constituents across the board, and not just seven percent of the votes based on the support for the UNP.

That said, inasmuch as it is the IHP poll that gave the JVP/NPP its early momentum at 31%, it is reasonable to interpret the new numbers as indicating a declining or flattening trend for the JVP/NPP. The JVP/NPP support is deemed to have dipped by five p.c. and the SJB support to have increased by one p.c. Yet 26% is quite a jump from the 3.2 p.c. and 3.8 p.c. support levels that the JVP/NPP registered at the 2019 presidential election and the 2020 parliamentary election.

There is no question that the JVP/NPP support has since ballooned to impressive proportions, but the question is whether the swelling support is enough to propel Anura Kumara Dissanayake to be one of the top two candidates in the September election. I say ‘top two candidates’ because it is almost impossible that any one of the three main candidates could be elected on the first ballot, and so the race is really to be one of the top two for reckoning in the second count of preferential votes.

Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe have opposite reasons to be happy with the IHP polling for all its limitations. The SJB’s 38% support is significantly higher than its 24% vote share in the 2020 parliamentary election. It is obviously lower than the 42% share that Sajith Premadasa polled in the 2019 presidential election, and Mr. Premadasa might look to the 42% mark to be optimistic about reaching upward of 35% on the first count. That is if only Ranil Wickremesinghe would let him have it so easily.

President Wickremesinghe would be looking to slice off as much as he could from the UNP votes that Sajith Premadasa garnered for himself in the 2019 presidential election. How much would it be is the question. Mr. Wickremesinghe might consider it to be positive that the UNP’s support of seven p.c. in the IHP poll is more than thrice the 2.15 p.c. vote share the grand old party managed to collect in the 2020 parliamentary election. As an independent candidate, Mr. Wickremesinghe would be looking to pilfer votes across the board, but the two main vote banks that he could draw from are the SJB (which is the old UNP account) and the SLPP. RW would have been hoping for a maximum draw from the SLPP account which may have been possible if the Rajapaksas had endorsed his (RW’s) candidacy.

But with Mahinda and Basil Rajapaksa betraying Ranil and settling on Namal Rajapaksa to carry the family torch, RW’s earlier calculations might now need some revisiting. At the same time, the 16% support level for the SLPP in the IHP polling, from the highs of 52% in the 2019 presidential election and 59% in the 2020 parliamentary election, is indicative of the erosion of SLPP support in the country, or among the Sinhalese. Much of it likely would have migrated to the JVP, and they are not likely to trek to Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Put another way, Ranil Wickremesinghe might be starting with the smallest vote bank and the weakest organization for mobilizing votes. While all three candidates would look for support from the Tamil, Muslim and the Malayagha Tamil votes, not to mention the Sinhala Catholic vote, RW could be the one most dependent on them. Already, the SLMC has indicated its support for Sajith Premadasa, and the CWC for Ranil Wickremesinghe. Where the Tamil vote will fall or if the ITAK will openly support a candidate is still unknown.

A common Tamil candidate if there were to be one could be in a race to the bottom with Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe who might present himself as the only authentic Sinhala candidate in the mix. He apparently has the support of a third of the SLFP organization although none of the organizational claimants have any vote base left in the country. It would be impossible to discern where the pre-2005 SLFP voters are now and could be a problem for Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Now to voter preferences for the second and third best. With 39 candidates on the ballot, each voter can vote for any one of them and could also indicate her/his second and third preferences. As no candidate is likely to get more than 50% of the vote on the first count, the winner will have to be determined from the top two candidates. This will be done by eliminating the other 37 candidates and counting the second and third preferences marked on the eliminated ballots for either one of the top two candidates. Notably, the second/third preferences marked on the ballots of the top two candidates will not be counted against each other. Whoever gets the higher total after adding the preferential votes will be declared the winner.

Given their common voter allegiances, those who vote for Sajith Premadasa would likely cast their second preference for Ranil Wickremesinghe, and vice versa. So, if the two of them end up as the top two candidates, then their mutually preferential votes will be of no value. On the other hand, if one of them and Anura Kumara Dissanayake end up as the top two candidates, Mr. Dissanayake could be at a disadvantage when preferential votes are counted. The constitution also provides for drawing lots to determine the winner if two or more candidates end up with the same number of votes. That would be a long shot, but the three main candidates could end up with totals that are quite close. Picking a winner out of them without a runoff election is hardly a democratic exercise. That only begs the question: why have this system at all!



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Features

Acid test emerges for US-EU ties

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday put forward the EU’s viewpoint on current questions in international politics with a clarity, coherence and eloquence that was noteworthy. Essentially, she aimed to leave no one in doubt that a ‘new form of European independence’ had emerged and that European solidarity was at a peak.

These comments emerge against the backdrop of speculation in some international quarters that the Post-World War Two global political and economic order is unraveling. For example, if there was a general tacit presumption that US- Western European ties in particular were more or less rock-solid, that proposition apparently could no longer be taken for granted.

For instance, while US President Donald Trump is on record that he would bring Greenland under US administrative control even by using force against any opposition, if necessary, the EU Commission President was forthright that the EU stood for Greenland’s continued sovereignty and independence.

In fact at the time of writing, small military contingents from France, Germany, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands are reportedly already in Greenland’s capital of Nook for what are described as limited reconnaissance operations. Such moves acquire added importance in view of a further comment by von der Leyen to the effect that the EU would be acting ‘in full solidarity with Greenland and Denmark’; the latter being the current governing entity of Greenland.

It is also of note that the EU Commission President went on to say that the ‘EU has an unwavering commitment to UK’s independence.’ The immediate backdrop to this observation was a UK decision to hand over administrative control over the strategically important Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia to Mauritius in the face of opposition by the Trump administration. That is, European unity in the face of present controversial moves by the US with regard to Greenland and other matters of contention is an unshakable ‘given’.

It is probably the fact that some prominent EU members, who also hold membership of NATO, are firmly behind the EU in its current stand-offs with the US that is prompting the view that the Post-World War Two order is beginning to unravel. This is, however, a matter for the future. It will be in the interests of the contending quarters concerned and probably the world to ensure that the present tensions do not degenerate into an armed confrontation which would have implications for world peace.

However, it is quite some time since the Post-World War Two order began to face challenges. Observers need to take their minds back to the Balkan crisis and the subsequent US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in the immediate Post-Cold War years, for example, to trace the basic historic contours of how the challenges emerged. In the above developments the seeds of global ‘disorder’ were sown.

Such ‘disorder’ was further aggravated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine four years ago. Now it may seem that the world is reaping the proverbial whirlwind. It is relevant to also note that the EU Commission President was on record as pledging to extend material and financial support to Ukraine in its travails.

Currently, the international law and order situation is such that sections of the world cannot be faulted for seeing the Post World War Two international order as relentlessly unraveling, as it were. It will be in the interests of all concerned for negotiated solutions to be found to these global tangles. In fact von der Leyen has committed the EU to finding diplomatic solutions to the issues at hand, including the US-inspired tariff-related squabbles.

Given the apparent helplessness of the UN system, a pre-World War Two situation seems to be unfolding, with those states wielding the most armed might trying to mould international power relations in their favour. In the lead-up to the Second World War, the Hitlerian regime in Germany invaded unopposed one Eastern European country after another as the League of Nations stood idly by. World War Two was the result of the Allied Powers finally jerking themselves out of their complacency and taking on Germany and its allies in a full-blown world war.

However, unlike in the late thirties of the last century, the seeming number one aggressor, which is the US this time around, is not going unchallenged. The EU which has within its fold the foremost of Western democracies has done well to indicate to the US that its power games in Europe are not going unmonitored and unchecked. If the US’ designs to take control of Greenland and Denmark, for instance, are not defeated the world could very well be having on its hands, sooner rather than later, a pre-World War Two type situation.

Ironically, it is the ‘World’s Mightiest Democracy’ which is today allowing itself to be seen as the prime aggressor in the present round of global tensions. In the current confrontations, democratic opinion the world over is obliged to back the EU, since it has emerged as the principal opponent of the US, which is allowing itself to be seen as a fascist power.

Hopefully sane counsel would prevail among the chief antagonists in the present standoff growing, once again, out of uncontainable territorial ambitions. The EU is obliged to lead from the front in resolving the current crisis by diplomatic means since a region-wide armed conflict, for instance, could lead to unbearable ill-consequences for the world.

It does not follow that the UN has no role to play currently. Given the existing power realities within the UN Security Council, the UN cannot be faulted for coming to be seen as helpless in the face of the present tensions. However, it will need to continue with and build on its worldwide development activities since the global South in particular needs them very badly.

The UN needs to strive in the latter directions more than ever before since multi-billionaires are now in the seats of power in the principle state of the global North, the US. As the charity Oxfam has pointed out, such financially all-powerful persons and allied institutions are multiplying virtually incalculably. It follows from these realities that the poor of the world would suffer continuous neglect. The UN would need to redouble its efforts to help these needy sections before widespread poverty leads to hemispheric discontent.

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Features

Brighten up your skin …

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Hi! This week I’ve come up with tips to brighten up your skin.

* Turmeric and Yoghurt Face Pack:

You will need 01 teaspoon of turmeric powder and 02 tablespoons of fresh yoghurt.

Mix the turmeric and yoghurt into a smooth paste and apply evenly on clean skin. Leave it for 15–20 minutes and then rinse with lukewarm water

Benefits:

Reduces pigmentation, brightens dull skin and fights acne-causing bacteria.

* Lemon and Honey Glow Pack:

Mix 01teaspoon lemon juice and 01 tablespoon honey and apply it gently to the face. Leave for 10–15 minutes and then wash off with cool water.

Benefits:

Lightens dark spots, improves skin tone and deeply moisturises. By the way, use only 01–02 times a week and avoid sun exposure after use.

* Aloe Vera Gel Treatment:

All you need is fresh aloe vera gel which you can extract from an aloe leaf. Apply a thin layer, before bedtime, leave it overnight, and then wash face in the morning.

Benefits:

Repairs damaged skin, lightens pigmentation and adds natural glow.

* Rice Flour and Milk Scrub:

You will need 01 tablespoon rice flour and 02 tablespoons fresh milk.

Mix the rice flour and milk into a thick paste and then massage gently in circular motions. Leave for 10 minutes and then rinse with water.

Benefits:

Removes dead skin cells, improves complexion, and smoothens skin.

* Tomato Pulp Mask:

Apply the tomato pulp directly, leave for 15 minutes, and then rinse with cool water

Benefits:

Controls excess oil, reduces tan, and brightens skin naturally.

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Features

Shooting for the stars …

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That’s precisely what 25-year-old Hansana Balasuriya has in mind – shooting for the stars – when she was selected to represent Sri Lanka on the international stage at Miss Intercontinental 2025, in Sahl Hasheesh, Egypt.

The grand finale is next Thursday, 29th January, and Hansana is all geared up to make her presence felt in a big way.

Her journey is a testament to her fearless spirit and multifaceted talents … yes, her life is a whirlwind of passion, purpose, and pageantry.

Raised in a family of water babies (Director of The Deep End and Glory Swim Shop), Hansana’s love affair with swimming began in childhood and then she branched out to master the “art of 8 limbs” as a Muay Thai fighter, nailed Karate and Kickboxing (3-time black belt holder), and even threw herself into athletics (literally!), especially throwing events, and netball, as well.

A proud Bishop’s College alumna, Hansana’s leadership skills also shone bright as Senior Choir Leader.

She earned a BA (Hons) in Business Administration from Esoft Metropolitan University, and then the world became her playground.

Before long, modelling and pageantry also came into her scene.

She says she took to part-time modelling, as a hobby, and that led to pageants, grabbing 2nd Runner-up titles at Miss Nature Queen and Miss World Sri Lanka 2025.

When she’s not ruling the stage, or pool, Hansana’s belting tunes with Soul Sounds, Sri Lanka’s largest female ensemble.

What’s more, her artistry extends to drawing, and she loves hitting the open road for long drives, she says.

This water warrior is also on a mission – as Founder of Wave of Safety,

Hansana happens to be the youngest Executive Committee Member of the Sri Lanka Aquatic Sports Union (SLASU) and, as founder of Wave of Safety, she’s spreading water safety awareness and saving lives.

Today is Hansana’s ninth day in Egypt and the itinerary for today, says National Director for Sri Lanka, Brian Kerkoven, is ‘Jeep Safari and Sunset at the Desert.’

And … the all-important day at Miss Intercontinental 2025 is next Thursday, 29th January.

Well, good luck to Hansana.

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