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Pakistan’s election chaos casts shadow on next IMF deal

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Supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, demand free and fair results of the elections outside the provincial election commission office in Karachi on February 17, 2024 (Aljazeera)

As Pakistan grapples with the aftermath of controversial elections, political chaos is threatening to cloud its $3bn deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which analysts say is key to the country’s economic stability.

On Thursday, the global lender said Pakistan’s interim government had “maintained” economic stability. The IMF’s communications chief, Julie Kozack, said the interim government had managed to achieve fiscal targets while also “protecting” the social safety net. “We look forward to working with the new government on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and prosperity for all of Pakistan’s citizens,” Kozack said.

But the comments from the IMF come at a time when Pakistan is about to swear in a new government after this month’s general election, which has been marred by widespread allegations of rigging and manipulation.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan  the founder of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, drew a link between these allegations and the IMF loan in a statement from prison, asking the international body to carry out an audit of the elections before proceeding with the deal.

“Imran Khan will issue a letter to IMF. The charter of IMF, EU and other organisations stipulates that they can function or provide loan to a country only if there’s good governance,” Khan’s lawyer and Senator Ali Zafar told journalists after meeting the ex-premier at Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail on Thursday. Khan is in jail over a series of convictions in cases involving a range of charges — from corruption to leaking secret documents.

Pakistan signed a nine-month standby agreement with the IMF last year. It will expire early next month, and securing another long-term plan is seen as a priority for the next government.

The February 8 elections in Pakistan saw a split mandate with PTI-backed candidates winning 93 seats in the National Assembly while the party’s main rivals, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)  secured 75 and 54 seats, respectively.

The PMLN, PPP and smaller allies have agreed to form a coalition government, whose members are expected to take oaths next week.

The PTI was denied its electoral symbol — a cricket bat — weeks before the elections and was forced to field candidates as independents. The party also faced a nationwide crackdown that impeded its campaign but still beat the odds when its candidates won the highest number of seats. Khan was removed from office in 2022 after a no-confidence motion. Many analysts believe he came to power in 2018 with the support of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment, but they eventually fell out.

The PTI has alleged widespread manipulation in the counting and results and has said it will continue both street protests and legal cases to reclaim what it insists is a stolen mandate.

Lahore-based economist Hina Shaikh, however, said this political uncertainty wouldn’t affect the IMF’s approach. With the IMF already signalling its willingness to work with the new government, “any effort by Khan would not bear any fruit,” she said.

“Firstly, it would have no official ramifications, and secondly, it would not be in the interest of Pakistan nor IMF to end financial support. Pakistan has several payments due in the next two months and needs IMF support to stay afloat and continue leveraging other sources of revenue,” the economist told Al Jazeera.

Extending the IMF deal is critical for Pakistan, economists said. A failure on the part of the government to tackle the country’s massive economic challenges could send the nation of 241 million people into a default.

Pakistan’s foreign reserves currently stand at about $8bn, just enough to cover eight weeks of imports. The Pakistani rupee has lost more than 50 percent of its value against the US dollar over the past two years.

Inflation, which hit a record high of almost 38 percent last year, is currently nearly 30 percent, and high tariffs for electricity and gas along with other essential commodities are draining household incomes.

The looming debt obligations mean that Pakistan must be able to negotiate a new plan with the IMF as soon as the new government comes in. A recent report by Tabadlab, an Islamabad-based think tank, called Pakistan’s debt obligations “unsustainable”, saying its total external and internal debt totals up to $271bn.

A United States Institute of Peace report from last year concluded that the country needs to “repay $77.5 billion in external debt” by June 2026. “For a $350 billion economy, this is a hefty burden,” the report stated.

Pakistan’s central bank says it needs more than $6bn to service its debt obligations by June 30, the end of current fiscal year.

Emphasizing the need for a continuation of the IMF loan programme, Uzair Younus, principal at the US-based advisory firm The Asia Group, said Pakistan’s economy cannot afford politics when it comes to the next IMF deal.  “Any delays due to politics or a staring contest between the next finance minister and the IMF is likely to rapidly fuel economic uncertainty, pressure on the currency and heightened default risk,” he told Al Jazeera.

(Aljazeera)



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Woman suspected of Monaco bomb attack found dead in Ukraine

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Interpol Interpol issued a red alert requesting the location and arrest of 39-year-old Anastasiia Berezovska

The woman suspected of carrying out a parcel bombing in Monaco which injured a sanctioned Ukrainian multi-millionaire and his family has been found dead, Ukraine’s security service (SBU) has said.

A cross-border manhunt had been launched for Anastasiia Berezovska, a Ukrainian woman who officials believed had fled the wealthy city-state after planting the bomb in the entrance hall of an apartment building on 29 June.

The 39-year-old’s body was found with gunshot wounds to the head, according to the SBU.

Two people including a current officer within Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) have been detained on suspicion of murder.

Berezovska arrived in Ukraine two days after the attack on 1 July, the SBU said in its statement, citing law enforcement sources.

There, she communicated with her family and two men – a former law enforcement officer and a current officer in the MoD’s main intelligence directorate.

The two men were investigated as possible accomplices in the Monaco attack based on information that they “repeatedly transferred funds” to Berezovska’s “crypto and bank accounts”.

The intelligence officer subsequently confessed to Berezovska’s murder and said he had done so with “another suspect”, the agency said.

It continued: “During the search of the former law enforcement officer’s home, a basement room resembling a torture chamber was found.

“Both suspects were detained on suspicion of committing murder with premeditation by a group of individuals.”

An investigation is ongoing with the “personal assistance” of the head of the intelligence directorate Oleg Ivashchenko.

Monaco’s deputy prosecutor Morgan Raymond said Berezovska had spent days casing out the residence and was “disguised as a man” during the attack last Monday.

Three people were injured, two of them seriously, when a package exploded just as they entered the building shortly after 21:00 local time (19:00 GMT).

Berezovska was believed to have fled in a hire car to Italy and onwards to Germany – where special forces searched an apartment rented by a 39-year-old Ukrainian woman “currently on the run” in the central state of Hesse on Thursday, police said.

Interpol issued a red notice alerting police worldwide that she was a fugitive wanted for attempted murder, placing an explosive device on a public road with criminal intent and criminal conspiracy on Friday.

The SBU said Ukrainian authorities had shared all available information with officials in Monaco, with who its prosecutor general was in “close co-operation”.

Law enforcement authorities were working to identify “other suspects” in the attack, it added.

Interpol A woman with dark hair and a serious expression. She wears a striped black and white shirt. On her right arm there appears to be a tattoo of a snake and she is carrying several items in her left hand.
Police released an image of Berezovska on CCTV, pointing to a distinctive tattoo on her arm which they said “possibly” depicted a snake

Authorities in Monaco have not confirmed the victims’ identities, but local media reported Vadym Yermolaiev, his partner and his 13-year-old son had been targeted.

Yermolaiev, a real estate developer, was named the 39th richest Ukrainian by Forbes magazine in 2020 with a reported fortune of $230m (£173.8m).

He has major interests are in wine and alcohol in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and has been the subject of sanctions imposed by the government in Kyiv since 2023.

He is a Cypriot citizen, having renounced his Ukrainian citizenship in 2019, and has been living in Monaco.

BBC map showing the location of an explosion in the north of Monaco near the border with France. The principality of Monaco is located in the southeast of France on the Mediterranean coast, around 15km (10 miles) to the east of Nice. The map also labels the French commune (town) of Beausoleil which lies across the border from Monaco.
(BBC)
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Evacuations in Guam as super typhoon Bavi approaches

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Rain falls in Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands, ahead of super typhoon Bavi's arrival [

Emergency evacuations are taking place in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands as a super typhoon bears down on the US Pacific territories.

Bavi is forecast to make landfall early on Monday morning, with winds of up to 257km/h (160mph), according to the US National Weather Service (NWS).

It warned the “very dangerous” storm could cause “catastrophic” damage, with “significant flooding from torrential rains” possible and waves potentially nearly 11m (35ft) high on Monday.

The western Pacific region is particularly prone to tropical cyclones. While storms of this strength are unusual for the US islands, scientists say climate change is making powerful typhoons more common.

Bavi is expected to pass directly over Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands by Monday afternoon, but the NWS warned that destructive conditions could be expected for eight to 10 hours prior to or after the arrival of the storm’s centre.

“The window is rapidly closing to evacuate if directed to do so by local officials, or if your home is vulnerable to high winds or flooding,” the agency said, adding that winds “will pose a deadly threat to those venturing outside”.

Guam, usually a sun-soaked tourist destination with a population of about 170,000, has opened five evacuation centres in its schools. These sites have a maximum capacity of around 1,700 and are primarily intended for vulnerable people.

The island’s civil defence office said at 13:00 local time (03:00 GMT) on Sunday that one of the evacuation sites had already reached maximum capacity and that people were being redirected to another site.

NWS Satellite image of super typhoon Bavi over the Pacific Ocean
Bavi is currently hurtling towards the US Pacific territories and is due to make landfall early on Monday [BBC]

Bavi has been classified as a super typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a part of the US Navy responsible for monitoring tropical storms in the western Pacific.

A super typhoon has winds in excess of 130 knots (150mph). JTWC predicts that Bavi will have winds of 150 knots (173mph) when it arrives over the islands, with gusts reaching as high as 180 knots (207mph).

The NWS considers super typhoons to have the equivalent destructive potential as a category four or five hurricane.

Pinky Cubacub, 55, told news agency AFP that she had been boarding up the windows of her eatery in Guam with $500 (£373) worth of plywood.

“I cannot afford to lose so many days. It hurts,” she said. “Because I just started, whatever we’re making right now is just for rent, utilities, and my people, and supplies. I don’t even pay myself yet.”

Getty Images Restaurant workers board up a restaurant ahead of the arrival of the forecasted Super Typhoon Bavi in Guam on July 4, 2026. People in Guam and the Northern Marianas readied themselves on July 4 as the second "super typhoon" to threaten the US Pacific territories since April drew closer, bringing the equivalent of category-5 hurricane winds. (
Restaurant workers boarding up a restaurant in Guam over the weekend [BBC]

Japanese tourist Miku Sakurai, 25, told AFP that her return flight to Tokyo on Sunday had been cancelled. “We will stay in the hotel when the storm comes. I am scared,” she said.

Bavi will be the 11th category four or five tropical cyclone to hit US territory in the past decade – one more than the total recorded in the prior 57 years.

A strong El Niño event – a periodic warming of an area of surface water in the Pacific that contributes to weather patterns – is expected to push more tropical storms into these higher intensities.

Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands have already experienced one super typhoon this year – Sinlaku in April, which killed 17 people and caused about $1.5bn (£1.1bn) in damage.

Warmer sea surface temperatures drive more moisture into the atmosphere, supercharging storms.

[BBC]

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Iran promotes message of continuity and revenge at Khamenei commemoration

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Thousands attend funeral commemorations for Iran's assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, July 4 (Aljazeera)

Large-scale public commemorations  for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have commenced in the capital, with authorities promoting a message of continuity for the Islamic Republic and vengeance for his killing.

Khamenei, 86, was targeted in an airstrike at the start of the war with the United States and Israel on February 28, after ruling Iran with absolute power for nearly 37 years

Red flags, commonly associated with martyrdom but also viewed as a symbol of revenge in Shia Islam, were seen throughout the Grand Mosalla commemoration site in Tehran and other mass gatherings.

“We must rise,” was the official slogan used for the ceremonies, accompanied by an image of Khamenei’s clenched fist on a red and black background.

Thousands gathered inside the huge religious complex used for the funeral from the early hours of Saturday morning to pay their respects to the assassinated supreme leader.

Khamenei’s coffin, carried to the funeral site by a lorry, was displayed at the centre of the stage and draped in flags. Positioned on an elevated platform in the central court, surrounded by glass and guarded by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel, authorities were ready to deal with crowds attempting to reach his coffin.

Visiting men and women were separated by a large barrier to observe Islamic values. Religious chanting and slogans blasted from loudspeakers around the complex.

Videos circulated by state media showed crowds chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” at a number of metro stations.

“We are all here to seek blood vengeance for our leader,” Fatemeh, a 55-year-old woman travelling in a group of women clad in black chadors, told Al Jazeera while waiting to enter through a northern gate of the complex.

“We will all listen to his son. He will guide the revolution forward,” she said, in reference to Mojtaba Khameni, who was quickly selected as supreme leader by a clerical body in March following his father’s killing.

The commemoration has attracted thousands of people from across Tehran to mourn Khamenei [Maziar Motamedi/Al Jazeera]
The commemoration has attracted thousands of people from across Tehran to mourn Khamenei [Al Jazeera]

A heavy security presence continues in the capital, with armoured vehicles, heavy machine guns and snipers visible throughout the areas surrounding the farewell ceremonies.

Men were body searched as they entered the Mosalla, while electronic devices – such as power banks, earphones and lighters – were confiscated from the mourners by security.

Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly since he took office, will not attend the funeral due to security concerns.

State-affiliated newspapers and television reported that the supreme leader’s killing had rallied supporters of the Islamic Republic government, which has been in power since the 1979 revolution overthrew Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi.

Authorities are expecting similar huge numbers as attended the 1989 funeral of Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. At least eight mourners died in the crowds, forcing the military to evacuate his body by helicopter.

Thousands of “mokebs”, or temporary religious service stations, were set up across Tehran, blasting out Islamic Shia chants and rhythmic eulogies to Khamenei.

Government messages and images of Khamenei were plastered across Tehran during the commemoration [Maziar Motamedi/Al Jazeera]
Government messages and images of Khamenei were plastered across Tehran during the commemoration [Al Jazeera]

Some volunteers handed out flags, banners and images to the crowd. As temperatures rose to 36 degrees Celsius (97 degrees Fahrenheit), other mokebs were equipped with giant cooling fans and volunteers distributed free drinks to the thousands of mourners.

Emergency services were stationed across the area to assist with any health problems due to the crowds or the heat, but so far authorities have reported no security incidents or medical emergencies.

Large parts of Tehran have been cordoned off with barriers and non-official vehicles are barred from entering or exiting.

The whole of Iran has been effectively shut down until the end of Monday, in an apparent effort to encourage public participation, with 10 million Iranians expected to take part in the proceedings across the country.

Khamenei’s remains are expected to be moved through Tehran during the funeral procession on Monday. It is then expected to pass through some of Shia’s holiest sites, including Qom, Najaf and Karbala, before burial in his hometown of Mashhad in northeastern Iran on Thursday.

Some Iranians have used the public holiday to escape the crowds and the heat of Tehran for the cooler northern provinces by the Caspian Sea, as they regularly do on multi-day public events in the capital. Long lines of traffic were seen on the Tehran-Shomal Freeway leading to the provinces, with travellers stuck for hours in jams.

IRGC commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahidi, who made his first appearance since the start of the war, told state TV during an event on Friday to grieve Khamenei so that “enemies will take their wish for our surrender to the grave”.

“The enemies must know that the pure blood of our martyred imam was another turning point in the victories of dear Islam against the global infidel front,” he said.

Red flags, associated with martyrdom in Shia Islam and carrying religious messages, were carried by mourners [Maziar Motamedi/Al Jazeera]
Red flags, associated with martyrdom in Shia Islam and carrying religious messages, were carried by mourners [Al Jazeera]

IRGC aerospace chief Majid Mousavi, responsible for launching ballistic missiles and drones across the region during the war, also made a public appearance.

The central headquarters of armed forces issued a statement to warn against any military action during the ceremonies, after Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said Mojtaba Khamenet was marked for dearh.

Representatives from dozens of countries were in Tehran on Friday to pay their respects to Khamenei and speak with Iranian officials during televised state ceremonies.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, who helped mediate talks between Iran and the US, was among the most senior officials present. Other countries sent lower-level dignitaries, while European countries were reportedly not invited.

Among the most prominent attendees on Friday were members of the IRGC-backed “Axis of Resistance”, including members of Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Hezbollah delegation included members of Hassan Nasrallah’s family, the long-time head of the armed group killed by Israel in 2024, and relatives of Imad Mughniyeh, the commander killed by a car bomb in Syria in 2008.

(ALJAZEERA)

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