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Overcoming Obstacles: The economic case for a Sri Lanka-Thailand FTA

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By Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake

In 2019, only 6 % of tea imported by Thailand was from Sri Lanka. This low percentage can be attributed to the difference in preferences and Thailand’s high tariffs of 90 % on imported tea, which act as barriers to Sri Lanka’s tea exports. Additionally, Thailand imposes up to 30 % tariffs on nearly 120 product lines of wearing apparel.

These high tariffs for products with a comparative advantage are not exclusive to Sri Lanka. Thailand also faces higher tariffs for vehicles, rubber, and light-electronics exports which Thailand exports competitively. This tariff structure hampers the bilateral trade of products with a higher comparative advantage for both countries.

Despite these challenges, Sri Lanka and Thailand have expedited the process of signing a free trade agreement (FTA) to boost bilateral trade by threefold to USD 1.5 billion. This article discusses the trade effect of an FTA and a way forward to maximise the gains from an FTA.

Existing Trade is Skewed

towards Thailand

In the pre-pandemic period, Sri Lanka-Thailand bilateral trade was nearly USD 500 million. The three-year-2017, 2018 and 2019- average exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand were USD 62.9 million, while the exports from Thailand to Sri Lanka were USD 416.8 million. In 2019, Thailand was the 9th largest import source for Sri Lanka, but Sri Lanka is only the 73rd largest import source for Thailand. The mismatch resulted in a bilateral trade deficit of USD 353.9 million.

The existing exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand do not represent Sri Lanka’s typical export basket. The contribution of traditional exports like ready-made garments, tea, rubber, and coconuts is relatively low, and gems, electrical equipment, wheat flour, and activated carbon contribute to a greater extent. Technically specified natural rubber and latex are the top exports from Thailand which are essential raw materials in the value-added rubber industry of Sri Lanka.

Effect of Lowering Tariffs on Bilateral Trade to Zero

As estimated from partial equilibrium analysis, Sri Lanka will realise a 38 % increase in exports to Thailand if tariffs are reduced to zero (Figure 2). The wearing apparel sector would be the biggest beneficiary, with exports projected to increase by 251 % from USD 6.4 million to USD 22.5 million. Figure 3A provides the top ten exports by Sri Lanka benefitting from a tariff removal by Thailand. The export effect for Thailand will be 27.8 % and Thailand’s rubber and plastic products will be increased by 71.9 % or USD 35.4 million. Products such as smoked sheets of rubber and natural latexwould benefit the most from tariff elimination, as shown in Figure 3B.

Assuming an immediate phasing-out of the existing tariffs, an FTA would increase bilateral trade to USD 619.6 million by 29.1 %. This increase falls short of the ambitious goal of a threefold increase in bilateral trade, at least in the short run.

However, partial equilibrium analysis does not estimate the trade gains from new product innovations due to FDI movements. The estimates also do not account for trade effects through input-output linkages and magnification of tariff effects along the value chains. However, tariff phasing out takes time, and FTA coverages are less than 100 %.

Notes: Simulations were done for Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 47-sectors using sector-specific Armington Elasticities. The base years were 2021, and 2017 for Thailand and Sri Lanka, respectively.

Maximising Trade Gains

through Offensive Lists

An offensive list contains products for which a country has a comparative advantage, capacity for expansion, and a favourable tariff from the importing country. There are 154 such products for Sri Lanka. Notably, 81 % of the USD 27.6 million export gain from an FTA comes from these 154 product lines. Similarly, 69 % of Thailand’s export gains to Sri Lanka in an FTA comes from 147 products identified for the offensive list.

Once ordered by the estimated export gains, nine out of the top ten products of Sri Lanka’s offensive list are from the wearing apparel sector. For Thailand, vital offensive products are rubber, electric equipment like air-conditioners and refrigerators, and motor vehicles for goods transportation.

Challenges and the Way Forward:

Applying tariff cuts for all the products in the offensive lists is a challenge. Thailand’s high tariffs for tea and ready-made exports indicate its protectionist intent. Likewise, Sri Lanka might prefer to keep tariffs on rubber products. Significant political manoeuvring and delicate negotiations will be required to bring the coverage of the FTA to a satisfactory level. Secondly, an FTA will widen Sri Lanka’s trade deficit with Thailand by 26 % (Figure 4). Although a trade deficit is not necessarily detrimental, it does present a short-term challenge due to increased dollar outflow.

A possible solution is tariff elimination for the products in bilateral value chains. Sri Lanka uses Thailand’s rubber and textile products to produce finished goods. If Thailand removes tariffs for these finished products, increased exports will demand more raw materials. Sri Lanka can reciprocate by eliminating tariffs on raw materials. Phasing-in of the FTA, accounting for required adjustments, will also increase the political feasibility.

Strengthening bilateral trade ties with Thailand offers additional benefits to Sri Lanka. An FTA provides an opportunity to join electric equipment manufacturing value chains and a gateway to ASEAN economies. Thus, Sri Lanka should negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement with investment promotion, trade facilitation, and competition laws. Thailand can leverage Sri Lanka’s position as a distributional hub for regional exports.

Link to Talking Economics blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/05/11/overcoming-obstacles-the-economic-case-for-a-sri-lanka-thailand-fta/ ‎

Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Fellow at IPS with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. (Talk with Asanka – asanka@ips.lk)

Nilupulee Rathnayake is a Research Assistant working on Macro, Trade and Competitiveness research at IPS. She holds an MSc in Development Economics from the University of Nottingham, United Kingdom, and a BA in Economics from the University of Colombo, Sri Lanka. (Talk with Nilupulee – nilupulee@ips.lk)



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Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Minister Handunneththi’s visit to Lumala highlights key industrial concerns

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Minister inspecting along with Lumala factory manager Ranjith Siriwardana (left)

With the aim of assesing the current challenges faced by local industrialists and explore avenues for government support, Minister of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Hon. Sunil Handunneththi visited City Cycle Industries Manufacturing (Pvt.) Ltd., widely known as Lumala, on March 24 at its factory in Panadura.

During the visit, Minister Handunneththi engaged with senior officials and employees to understand their concerns and operational difficulties. In a statement shared on social media, the Minister acknowledged the pressing challenges affecting Sri Lanka’s manufacturing sector and emphasized the government’s commitment to providing swift and effective solutions.

Minister Handunneththi further reiterated the government’s intent to position local manufacturers as key stakeholders in Sri Lanka’s economy by addressing regulatory hurdles, market imbalances, and supply chain constraints.

The visit comes amid growing concerns from Lumala employees and management regarding the state of Sri Lanka’s bicycle manufacturing industry, in the backdrop of facing significant challenges, including an influx of imported bicycles and components that circumvent regulatory checks. In addition, the high taxes on raw materials used in local manufacturing has further exacerbated production costs, making it difficult for domestic manufacturers to remain competitive.

Earlier this year, Lumala employees called for urgent government intervention to address these challenges, warning that ongoing financial strain could lead to further shutdowns of critical production units, job losses, and setbacks to the broader industrial ecosystem. With a local value addition of 50-70 percent verified by the Ministry, its workforce remains hopeful that government action will help achieve an ethical manufacturing industry.

Lumala, a household name in Sri Lanka’s bicycle industry, has been a key player in sustainable mobility solutions for over 35 years. The company was recently honored with the Best National Industry Brand award under the Large-Scale Other Industry Sector category at the National Industry Brand Excellence Awards 2024.

With a production capacity of 2,000 bicycles per day and a workforce of 200, Lumala continues to cater to both domestic and international markets, producing a diverse range of bicycles, electric bikes and light electric vehicles. In line with Sri Lanka’s goal to expand forest cover to 32 percent by 2030 and cut GHG emissions by 14.5%, Lumala is actively contributing to this mission—both as a company and through its diverse range of products.

As Sri Lanka works towards strengthening its local manufacturing sector, Minister Handunneththi’s visit signals a crucial step toward addressing industrial concerns and reinforcing government support for sustainable and competitive domestic production.

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New SL Sovereign Bonds win foreign investor confidence

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Sri Lanka’s country rating was upgraded from ‘Restricted Default’ to ‘CCC’ following the successful exchange for the new International Sovreign Bonds (SL ISBs) during December 2024. The three types (03) of exciting new sovereign bonds have restored foreign investor confidence.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has performed a remarkable role in guiding the economy out of default status and restored economic stability, and gained Sri Lanka a non-default Country Rating of ‘CCC’. Among the key achievements of CBSL, have been to reduce treasury interest rates under 9% and stabilize the currency while rebuilding foreign reserves to $ 6Bn.

SL offers four Macro Linked Bonds (MLBs) linked to GDP growth, a Governance Linked Bond (GLB) and a short term, Fixed Coupon Bond for unpaid Past Due Interest (PDI). The MLBs offer variable returns depending on SL’s GDP growth from 2024 to 2027, (e.g. haircuts can vary between 16% to 39%). The GLB interest can vary depending on meeting 15.3% and 15.4% of Total Revenue/ GDP thresholds in 2026 and 2027 respectively. The PDI bond offers a fixed coupon of 4% until 2028 and trades at around $94.

This combination of unique, variable returns offers global investors an exciting opportunity to capitalize on SL’s economic revival and US interest rate movements. Sri Lanka’s economic resurgence in 2024 was promising, with a 5% GDP growth rate. With improving investor confidence, SL ISB daily turnover now exceeds $10mn.

The Ceylon Dollar Bond Fund (CDBF) is the only USD Sovereign Bond Fund that is exclusively invested in SL ISBs with Deutsche Bank acting as the Trustee and Custodian Bank. The Fund reported returns of 53% in 2023 and 39% in 2024.

We invite foreign investors to enter CDBF while Sri Lanka is rated at ‘CCC’ and consider realizing their investment upon SL reaching a Country Rating of ‘B- ‘. Other advantages of CDBF are, the ability to withdraw anytime and being tax exempted.

Ceylon Asset Management (CAM), the Fund Manager, has commenced an advertising campaign to promote the CDBF to the Sri Lankan Diaspora, South Asian, Middle Eastern and Australian Investors. CAM is an Associate Company of Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation (SLIC) and licensed under the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka Act, No. 19 of 2021.

Meanwhile, the Ceylon Financial Sector Fund managed by CAM emerged as the top performing rupee fund in Sri Lanka during 2024, with a return of 64%. Investors can find out more on www.ceylonassetmanagement.com or write to us on info@ceylonam.com.

Past performance is not an indicator of the future performance. Investors are advised to read and understand the contents of the KIID on www.ceylonam.com before investing. Among others investors shall consider the fees and charges involved.(CAM)

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Share market plunges steeply for second consecutive day in reaction to US tariffs

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CSE plunged at open, falling for the second consecutive day yesterday, down over 300 points in mid- morning trade.US President Donald Trump has imposed a 44 percent tax on Sri Lanka’s exports in an executive order which he claimed, spelt out discounted reciprocal rates for about half the taxes and barriers imposed by the island on America.

As a result both indices showed a downward trend. The All Share Price Index dropped 300 points, or 2.32 percent, to 15,294.94, while the S&P SL20 dropped 101 points, or 2.71 percent, to 4,517.37.

Turnover stood at Rs 3.1 billion with six crossings. Those crossings were reported in Sampath Bank which crossed 1.6 million shares to the tune of Rs 181 million and its shares traded at 109, JKH 4.1 million shares crossed to the tune of 80.5 million and its shares sold at Rs 19.5.

Hemas Holdings 400,000 shares crossed for Rs 45.6 million; its shares traded at Rs 114, CTC 25000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 32.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 1330, Commercial Bank 200,000 shares crossed for 27 million; its shares traded at Rs 135 and TJ Lanka 157,000 shares crossed for Rs 20 million; its shares traded at Rs 46.

In the retail market top six companies that have mainly contributed to the turnover were; Sampath Bank Rs 296 million (2.9 million shares traded), JKH Rs 220 million (11.2 million shares traded), Haylays Rs 195 million (142,000 shares traded), HNB Rs 151 million (519,000 shares traded), Commercial Bank Rs 138 million (1 million shares traded) and Central Finance Rs 129 million (735,000 shares traded). During the day 218 million shares volumes changed hands in 22000 transactions.

It is said the banking sector was the main contributor to the turnover, especially Sampath Bank, while manufacturing sector, especially JKH, was the second largest contributor.

Yesterday, the rupee opened at Rs 296.75/90 to the US dollar in the spot market, stronger from Rs 296.90/297.20 on the previous day, dealers said, while bond yields were up.

A bond maturing on 15.10.2028 was quoted at 10.35/40 percent, up from 10.25/30 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.09.2029 was quoted at 10.50/60 percent, up from 10.45/55 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.10.2030 was quoted at 10.60/70 percent, up from 10.30/65 percent.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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