Business
Overcoming Obstacles: The Economic Case for a Sri Lanka-Thailand FTA

By Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake
In 2019, only 6 % of tea imported by Thailand was from Sri Lanka. This low percentage can be attributed to the difference in preferences and Thailand’s high tariffs of 90 % on imported tea, which act as barriers to Sri Lanka’s tea exports. Additionally, Thailand imposes up to 30 % tariffs on nearly 120 product lines of wearing apparel.
These high tariffs for products with a comparative advantage are not exclusive to Sri Lanka. Thailand also faces higher tariffs for vehicles, rubber, and light-electronics exports which Thailand exports competitively. This tariff structure hampers the bilateral trade of products with a higher comparative advantage for both countries.
Despite these challenges, Sri Lanka and Thailand have expedited the process of signing a free trade agreement (FTA) to boost bilateral trade by threefold to USD 1.5 billion. This article discusses the trade effect of an FTA and a way forward to maximise the gains from an FTA.
Existing Trade is Skewed towards Thailand
In the pre-pandemic period, Sri Lanka-Thailand bilateral trade was nearly USD 500 million. The three-year-2017, 2018 and 2019- average exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand were USD 62.9 million, while the exports from Thailand to Sri Lanka were USD 416.8 million. In 2019, Thailand was the 9th largest import source for Sri Lanka, but Sri Lanka is only the 73rd largest import source for Thailand. The mismatch resulted in a bilateral trade deficit of USD 353.9 million.
The existing exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand do not represent Sri Lanka’s typical export basket. The contribution of traditional exports like ready-made garments, tea, rubber, and coconuts is relatively low, and gems, electrical equipment, wheat flour, and activated carbon contribute to a greater extent. Technically specified natural rubber and latex are the top exports from Thailand which are essential raw materials in the value-added rubber industry of Sri Lanka.
Effect of Lowering Tariffs on Bilateral Trade to Zero
As estimated from partial equilibrium analysis, Sri Lanka will realise a 38 % increase in exports to Thailand if tariffs are reduced to zero (Figure 2). The wearing apparel sector would be the biggest beneficiary, with exports projected to increase by 251 % from USD 6.4 million to USD 22.5 million. Figure 3A provides the top ten exports by Sri Lanka benefitting from a tariff removal by Thailand. The export effect for Thailand will be 27.8 % and Thailand’s rubber and plastic products will be increased by 71.9 % or USD 35.4 million. Products such as smoked sheets of rubber and natural latexwould benefit the most from tariff elimination, as shown in Figure 3B.
Assuming an immediate phasing-out of the existing tariffs, an FTA would increase bilateral trade to USD 619.6 million by 29.1 %. This increase falls short of the ambitious goal of a threefold increase in bilateral trade, at least in the short run.
However, partial equilibrium analysis does not estimate the trade gains from new product innovations due to FDI movements. The estimates also do not account for trade effects through input-output linkages and magnification of tariff effects along the value chains. However, tariff phasing out takes time, and FTA coverages are less than 100 %.
An offensive list contains products for which a country has a comparative advantage, capacity for expansion, and a favourable tariff from the importing country. There are 154 such products for Sri Lanka. Notably, 81 % of the USD 27.6 million export gain from an FTA comes from these 154 product lines. Similarly, 69 % of Thailand’s export gains to Sri Lanka in an FTA comes from 147 products identified for the offensive list.
Once ordered by the estimated export gains, nine out of the top ten products of Sri Lanka’s offensive list are from the wearing apparel sector. For Thailand, vital offensive products are rubber, electric equipment like air-conditioners and refrigerators, and motor vehicles for goods transportation.
Challenges and the Way Forward:
Applying tariff cuts for all the products in the offensive lists is a challenge. Thailand’s high tariffs for tea and ready-made exports indicate its protectionist intent. Likewise, Sri Lanka might prefer to keep tariffs on rubber products. Significant political manoeuvring and delicate negotiations will be required to bring the coverage of the FTA to a satisfactory level. Secondly, an FTA will widen Sri Lanka’s trade deficit with Thailand by 26 % (Figure 4). Although a trade deficit is not necessarily detrimental, it does present a short-term challenge due to increased dollar outflow.
A possible solution is tariff elimination for the products in bilateral value chains. Sri Lanka uses Thailand’s rubber and textile products to produce finished goods. If Thailand removes tariffs for these finished products, increased exports will demand more raw materials. Sri Lanka can reciprocate by eliminating tariffs on raw materials. Phasing-in of the FTA, accounting for required adjustments, will also increase the political feasibility.
Strengthening bilateral trade ties with Thailand offers additional benefits to Sri Lanka. An FTA provides an opportunity to join electric equipment manufacturing value chains and a gateway to ASEAN economies. Thus, Sri Lanka should negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement with investment promotion, trade facilitation, and competition laws. Thailand can leverage Sri Lanka’s position as a distributional hub for regional exports.
Link to Talking Economics blog:
https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/05/11/overcoming-obstacles-the-economic-case-for-a-sri-lanka-thailand-fta/
Business
IMF staff team concludes visit to Sri Lanka

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Evan Papageorgiou visited Colombo from April 3 to 11, 2025. After constructive discussions in Colombo, Mr. Papageorgiou issued the following statement:
“Sri Lanka’s ambitious reform agenda supported by the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) continues to deliver commendable outcomes. The post-crisis growth rebound of 5 percent in 2024 is impressive. Inflation declined considerably in recent quarters and has fallen to ‑2.6 percent at end-March 2025. Gross official reserves increased to US$6.5 billion at end-March 2025 with sizeable foreign exchange purchases by the central bank. Substantial fiscal reforms have strengthened public finances.
“The recent external shock and evolving developments are creating uncertainty for the Sri Lankan economy, which is still recovering from its own economic crisis. More time is needed to assess the impact of the global shock and how its implications for Sri Lanka can be addressed within the contours of its IMF-supported program.
“The government’s sustained commitment to program objectives is ensuring policy continuity and program implementation remains strong. Going forward, sustaining the reform momentum is critical to safeguard the hard-won gains of the program and put the economy on a path toward lasting macroeconomic stability and higher inclusive growth.
“Against increased global uncertainty, sustained revenue mobilization efforts and prudent budget execution in line with Budget 2025 are critical to preserve the limited fiscal space. Boosting tax compliance, including by reinstating an efficient and timely VAT refund mechanism, will help contribute to revenue gains without resorting to additional tax policy measures. Avoiding new tax exemptions will help reduce fiscal revenue leakages, corruption risks and build much needed fiscal buffers, including for social spending to support Sri Lanka’s most vulnerable. Restoring cost recovery in electricity pricing will help minimize fiscal risks arising from the electricity state-owned enterprise.
“The government has an important responsibility to protect the poor and vulnerable at this uncertain time. It is important to redouble efforts to improve targeting, adequacy, and coverage of social safety nets. Fiscal support needs to be well-targeted, time-bound, and within the existing budget envelope.
“While inflation remains low, continued monitoring is warranted to ensure sustained price stability and support macroeconomic stability. Against ongoing global uncertainty, it remains important to continue rebuilding external buffers through reserves accumulation.
“Discussions are ongoing, and the authorities are encouraged to continue to make progress on restoring cost-recovery electricity pricing, strengthening the tax exemptions framework, and other important structural reforms.
“The IMF team held meetings with His Excellency President and Finance Minister Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Honorable Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya ; Honorable Labor Minister and Deputy Minister of Economic Development Prof. Anil Jayantha Fernando, Honorable Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Secretary to the Treasury Mr. K M Mahinda Siriwardana, Senior Economic Advisor to the President Duminda Hulangamuwa, and other senior government and CBSL officials. The team also met with parliamentarians, representatives from the private sector, civil society organizations, and development partners.
“We would like to thank the authorities for the excellent collaboration during the mission. Discussions are continuing with the goal of reaching staff-level agreement in the near term to pave the way for the timely completion of the fourth review. We reaffirm our commitment to support Sri Lanka at this uncertain time.”
Business
ComBank unveils new Corporate Branch at Head Office

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has transformed its iconic ‘Foreign Branch’ into the ‘Corporate Branch,’ reaffirming its commitment to delivering dedicated, comprehensive financial solutions to corporate and trade customers.
The Bank said this transformation represents a new milestone in its illustrious journey, and resonates with the rich commercial heritage of Colombo, a city that has long served as a vital trading hub in the region.
Strategically located at the Bank’s Head Office at Commercial House, 21, Sir Razeek Fareed Mawatha (Bristol Street), Colombo 1, this rebranded Corporate Branch stands as a first of its kind in Sri Lanka —a premier financial hub tailored exclusively to the needs of corporate customers, the Bank said. The transformation aligns with the Bank’s vision of providing unparalleled service excellence, bespoke financial solutions, and fostering long-term business partnerships.
Commenting on this strategic initiative, Commercial Bank’s Managing Director/CEO Sanath Manatunge stated: “It is our aspiration that just as the historic Delft Gateway, at which our Head Office is located, once opened the path to the Dutch Fort, our Corporate Branch will chart a new era of enduring and prosperous business collaborations, that will extend beyond Sri Lanka’s shores.”
Business
Fits Retail and Abans PLC Unveil Exclusive DeLonghi Premium Coffee Experience

Fits Retail has partnered with retail giant Abans PLC to showcase the iconic DeLonghi coffee machines at two of Colombo’s most prestigious locations: Abans Elite Colombo 3 and Abans Havelock City Mall showrooms.
At these dedicated demonstration zones, visitors can discover the unparalleled precision engineering and user-friendly technology that have made DeLonghi machines the preferred choice for discerning coffee lovers in more than 46 countries worldwide. Renowned for consistently delivering café-quality espresso, cappuccino, and even specialty cold brews, DeLonghi machines exemplify Italian innovation at its finest.
Yasas Kodituwakku, CEO of Fits Retail, expressed excitement about the collaboration: “This partnership represents our unwavering commitment to bringing global coffee excellence to Sri Lankan connoisseurs. With Abans PLC, we’re creating more than just demonstration spaces; we’re curating premium destinations for an authentic coffee experience.”
“As pioneers of premium lifestyle experiences in Sri Lanka, our collaboration with Fits Retail aligns seamlessly with our vision of elevating everyday moments into exceptional experiences,” said Tanaz Pestonjee, Director Business Development at Abans PLC.
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