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Oil supply tightens in Europe over Red Sea disruptions

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[File pic] Yemen's Houthi fighters take over the Galaxy Leader vessel in the Red Sea, on November 20, 2023 (Aljazeera)

The structure of the global benchmark Brent crude futures market and some physical markets in Europe and Africa have been reflecting tighter supply partly over concerns about shipping delays as vessels avoid the Red Sea due to missile and drone attacks.

The disruptions – which have been the largest to global trade since the COVID-19 pandemic – have combined with other factors such as rising Chinese demand to increase competition for crude supply that does not have to transit the Suez Canal, and analysts say this is most evident in European markets.

In a sign of tighter supply, the market structure of Brent – which is used to price nearly 80 percent of the world’s traded oil – hit its most bullish in two months on Friday, as tankers diverted from the Red Sea following recent air strikes by the United States and United Kingdom on targets in Yemen.

In response to Israel’s war on Gaza,  rebels from the Iran-aligned group that controls northern Yemen and its western coastline have launched a wave of assaults on ships in the Red Sea.

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By targeting vessels with perceived links to Israel, the Houthis are attempting to force Tel Aviv to stop the war and allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

Houthi activity has so far been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab al-Mandeb, which connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. Approximately 50 ships sail through the strait every day, heading to and from the Suez Canal – a central artery for global trade.

Some of the world’s largest shipping companies have suspended transit in the region, forcing vessels to sail around the Cape of Good Hope in Southern Africa. The lengthier route has raised freight rates due to higher fuel, crew and insurance costs.

“Brent is the most impacted futures contract when it comes to Red Sea/Suez Canal disruptions,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told the Reuters news agency. “So who suffers the most on the physical front? Undoubtedly, it is European refiners.”

The premium of the first-month Brent contract to the six-month contract LCOc1-LCOc7 rose to as much as $2.15 a barrel on Friday, the highest since early November. This structure, called backwardation, indicates a perception of tighter supply for prompt delivery.

Less Middle Eastern crude is heading to Europe, with the volume nearly halved to about 570,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December from 1.07 million bpd in October, Kpler data showed.

Ships travelling through the Suez Canal have taken on greater strategic significance since the war in Ukraine, as sanctions against Russia have made Europe more dependent on oil from the Middle East, which supplies one-third of the world’s Brent crude.

But it’s challenging to measure the impact of Red Sea shipping separately, one crude trader told Reuters. “It’s a strong market everywhere, but people are very nervous.”

Other developments have also tightened the European crude market including a drop in Libyan supply due to protests, the first such disruption for months, and lower Nigerian exports.

Angolan crude, which also heads to Europe without having to pass through the Suez Canal, is seeing higher demand from China and India because of issues around Iranian and Russian crude, reducing the supply that could come to Europe.

China’s oil trade with Iran has stalled as Tehran withholds shipments and demands higher prices, while India’s imports of Russian crude have fallen due to currency challenges, although India attributed the drop to unattractive prices.

Meanwhile, Russia leapfrogged Saudi Arabia to become China’s top crude oil supplier in 2023, data showed on Saturday, as the world’s biggest crude importer defied Western sanctions over Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine to buy vast quantities of discounted oil for its processing plants.

Russia shipped a record 107.02 million metric tonnes of crude oil to China last year, equivalent to 2.14 million bpd, the Chinese customs data showed, far more than other major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Imports from Saudi Arabia, previously China’s largest supplier, fell 1.8 percent to 85.96 million tonnes, as the Middle East oil giant lost market share to cheaper Russian crude.

(Aljazeera)



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IMF staff team concludes visit to Sri Lanka

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An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Evan Papageorgiou visited Colombo from April 3 to 11, 2025. After constructive discussions in Colombo, Mr. Papageorgiou issued the following statement:

“Sri Lanka’s ambitious reform agenda supported by the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) continues to deliver commendable outcomes. The post-crisis growth rebound of 5 percent in 2024 is impressive. Inflation declined considerably in recent quarters and has fallen to ‑2.6 percent at end-March 2025. Gross official reserves increased to US$6.5 billion at end-March 2025 with sizeable foreign exchange purchases by the central bank. Substantial fiscal reforms have strengthened public finances.

“The recent external shock and evolving developments are creating uncertainty for the Sri Lankan economy, which is still recovering from its own economic crisis. More time is needed to assess the impact of the global shock and how its implications for Sri Lanka can be addressed within the contours of its IMF-supported program.

“The government’s sustained commitment to program objectives is ensuring policy continuity and program implementation remains strong. Going forward, sustaining the reform momentum is critical to safeguard the hard-won gains of the program and put the economy on a path toward lasting macroeconomic stability and higher inclusive growth.

“Against increased global uncertainty, sustained revenue mobilization efforts and prudent budget execution in line with Budget 2025 are critical to preserve the limited fiscal space. Boosting tax compliance, including by reinstating an efficient and timely VAT refund mechanism, will help contribute to revenue gains without resorting to additional tax policy measures. Avoiding new tax exemptions will help reduce fiscal revenue leakages, corruption risks and build much needed fiscal buffers, including for social spending to support Sri Lanka’s most vulnerable. Restoring cost recovery in electricity pricing will help minimize fiscal risks arising from the electricity state-owned enterprise.

“The government has an important responsibility to protect the poor and vulnerable at this uncertain time. It is important to redouble efforts to improve targeting, adequacy, and coverage of social safety nets. Fiscal support needs to be well-targeted, time-bound, and within the existing budget envelope.

“While inflation remains low, continued monitoring is warranted to ensure sustained price stability and support macroeconomic stability. Against ongoing global uncertainty, it remains important to continue rebuilding external buffers through reserves accumulation.

“Discussions are ongoing, and the authorities are encouraged to continue to make progress on restoring cost-recovery electricity pricing, strengthening the tax exemptions framework, and other important structural reforms.

“The IMF team held meetings with His Excellency President and Finance Minister Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Honorable Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya ; Honorable Labor Minister and Deputy Minister of Economic Development Prof. Anil Jayantha Fernando, Honorable Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Secretary to the Treasury Mr. K M Mahinda Siriwardana, Senior Economic Advisor to the President Duminda Hulangamuwa, and other senior government and CBSL officials. The team also met with parliamentarians, representatives from the private sector, civil society organizations, and development partners.

“We would like to thank the authorities for the excellent collaboration during the mission. Discussions are continuing with the goal of reaching staff-level agreement in the near term to pave the way for the timely completion of the fourth review. We reaffirm our commitment to support Sri Lanka at this uncertain time.”

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ComBank unveils new Corporate Branch at Head Office

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Commercial Bank Managing Director/CEO, Sanath Manatunge, Chief Operating Officer S. Prabagar, Deputy General Manager – Corporate Banking Hasrath Munasinghe, Corporate Branch Chief Manager -Ruvini Samarasinghe and representatives of the Bank’s corporate and senior management at the opening of the new Corporate Branch

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has transformed its iconic ‘Foreign Branch’ into the ‘Corporate Branch,’ reaffirming its commitment to delivering dedicated, comprehensive financial solutions to corporate and trade customers.

The Bank said this transformation represents a new milestone in its illustrious journey, and resonates with the rich commercial heritage of Colombo, a city that has long served as a vital trading hub in the region.

Strategically located at the Bank’s Head Office at Commercial House, 21, Sir Razeek Fareed Mawatha (Bristol Street), Colombo 1, this rebranded Corporate Branch stands as a first of its kind in Sri Lanka —a premier financial hub tailored exclusively to the needs of corporate customers, the Bank said. The transformation aligns with the Bank’s vision of providing unparalleled service excellence, bespoke financial solutions, and fostering long-term business partnerships.

Commenting on this strategic initiative, Commercial Bank’s Managing Director/CEO Sanath Manatunge stated: “It is our aspiration that just as the historic Delft Gateway, at which our Head Office is located, once opened the path to the Dutch Fort, our Corporate Branch will chart a new era of enduring and prosperous business collaborations, that will extend beyond Sri Lanka’s shores.”

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Fits Retail and Abans PLC Unveil Exclusive DeLonghi Premium Coffee Experience

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The iconic DeLonghi coffee machines at Abans showroom

Fits Retail has partnered with retail giant Abans PLC to showcase the iconic DeLonghi coffee machines at two of Colombo’s most prestigious locations: Abans Elite Colombo 3 and Abans Havelock City Mall showrooms.

At these dedicated demonstration zones, visitors can discover the unparalleled precision engineering and user-friendly technology that have made DeLonghi machines the preferred choice for discerning coffee lovers in more than 46 countries worldwide. Renowned for consistently delivering café-quality espresso, cappuccino, and even specialty cold brews, DeLonghi machines exemplify Italian innovation at its finest.

Yasas Kodituwakku, CEO of Fits Retail, expressed excitement about the collaboration: “This partnership represents our unwavering commitment to bringing global coffee excellence to Sri Lankan connoisseurs. With Abans PLC, we’re creating more than just demonstration spaces; we’re curating premium destinations for an authentic coffee experience.”

“As pioneers of premium lifestyle experiences in Sri Lanka, our collaboration with Fits Retail aligns seamlessly with our vision of elevating everyday moments into exceptional experiences,” said Tanaz Pestonjee, Director Business Development at Abans PLC.

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