Business
Oil prices steady despite Middle East tensions, but risks are rising
In recent weeks, missile and drone attacks on cargo ships crossing the Red Sea have caused the biggest disruption to global trade since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite delayed supplies, however, oil prices have remained surprisingly stable.
In response to Israel’s war on Gaza, Houthi rebels – the Iran-aligned Shia movement that controls northern Yemen and its western coastline – have launched a wave of assaults on ships in the Red Sea. By targeting vessels with perceived links to Israel, they are attempting to force Tel Aviv to stop the war and admit full humanitarian aid into Gaza. Houthis have launched at least 26 separate attacks since November 19 on merchant freighters.
Though no ships have yet been sunk, the United States recently dispatched a multinational naval task force to the region. On December 31, American Navy helicopters killed 10 Houthi fighters and sank three of the group’s speedboats.
The following day, Iran dispatched its Alborz warship to the Red Sea, compounding an already volatile situation. The government did not provide information on the vessel’s mission.
On Wednesday, Houthi rebels fired their largest barrage of projectiles yet, forcing an engagement with US and British naval forces. On Thursday night, the US and UK led a bombing campaign against multiple Houthi facilities in Yemen.
While Brent crude briefly topped $80 per barrel after Thursday’s air strikes, oil prices have mostly trended sideways in recent weeks. Market fundamentals suggest a balanced, or slightly surplus, market. And until there is a clear threat to global supply, traders appear to have relegated tensions in the Middle East to background noise.
Houthi activity has so far been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab al-Mandab, which connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. Approximately 50 ships sail through the strait every day, heading to and from the Suez Canal – a central artery for global trade.
Some of the world’s largest shipping companies have suspended transit in the region, forcing vessels to sail around the Cape of Good Hope in Southern Africa. The lengthier route has raised freight rates due to higher fuel, crew and insurance costs.

According to Clarksons, a shipbroker, roughly 24,000 vessels crossed the Suez Canal last year. That amounts to one-tenth of global trade, including 10 percent of seaborne oil and 8 percent of liquefied natural gas.
Ships travelling through the Suez Canal have taken on greater strategic significance since the war in Ukraine, as Russian sanctions have made Europe more dependent on oil from the Middle East, which supplies one-third of the world’s Brent crude, the international benchmark.
“The region is an important channel for freight, representing almost one-third of global container capacity. As such, Houthi-linked bottlenecks pose a new risk to inflation,” said Rahul Sharan, a senior manager for maritime consultancy Drewry.
“We’ve seen hundreds of vessels rerouted from the Suez Canal in recent months. We don’t yet have visibility on which industries have been most severely affected, but consumer goods costs could rise if oil and gas prices increase.”
Despite diverting supplies from the Suez Canal, tensions in the Red Sea have so far had a muted impact on energy prices. “We’ve seen plenty of volatility, so geopolitical risks are being considered. But not enough to lift prices,” says energy trader Mohammed Yagoub.
“The truth is that headline fatigue has set in. There’s been a lot of coverage on tensions in the Red Sea, especially today. But global supplies have remained broadly steady in recent weeks,” Yagoub told Al Jazeera.
“You have to remember that the oil can still travel around Africa, as well as from ports in western Saudi Arabia, bypassing the need to cross Bab al-Mandeb.” The Houthis, he said, were also unlikely to attack ships from friendly oil and gas-producing countries in the region.
There are other factors at play – recent record US production, the lifting of oil sanctions in Venezuela and tepid global demand, Yagoub added.
However, looking ahead, he warned that “tensions in Iran, especially around Hormuz, could move the needle on prices.”
Approximately 17 million barrels of crude oil, nearly one-sixth of global supply, are transported on a daily basis through the Strait of Hormuz, between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. If Iran became actively engaged in the conflict, Tehran could threaten to close this vital channel.
Any such closure could see crude prices surge by 20 percent in a month and higher thereafter, according to Callum Bruce, an analyst at Goldman Sachs. “It would be a huge, huge shock. For now, though, the implied market probability of that happening is less than 1 percent,” he said. Tehran has appeared reluctant to engage in military conflict with the US military and its economy remains fragile.
Bruce pointed out that “oil traders will continue paying close attention to activity in the Middle East. Gaza is ground zero. Then, you have the Red Sea. Tensions across the region have also ratcheted up in recent weeks.”
On January 2, senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in Beirut by an Israeli drone raid following three months of hostilities at the Lebanon-Israel border. It was the first air raid on Beirut since 2006.
This past week, Israel assassinated a Hezbollah commander in south Lebanon, while Hezbollah, which has Iranian support, struck a sensitive Israeli base with rockets. Meanwhile, Iran-backed groups in Iraq have stepped up attacks on US military bases.
For his part, US President Joe Biden has said he is keen to prevent the war on Gaza from spiralling into an all-out regional conflagration, though the bombing of Yemen has been viewed by the Houthis as an escalation. On Sunday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was dispatched to the Middle East on a diplomatic trip for the fourth time in three months.
“Israel’s war with Hamas seems to have energised already existing tensions,” said Bruce. “And while US naval activity in the Red Sea provoked headlines, economic essentials are continuing to dictate oil prices.”
Mohammed Yagoub added, “It’s true that mega-trends are pre-occupying traders. But the likelihood of a regional conflict will increase the longer the fighting in Gaza persists. Yemen is proving that. So, you could make the case that oil traders are too sanguine right now.”
(Aljazeera)
Business
UNDP, Central Bank deepen financial literacy drive to build economic resilience
By Ifham Nizam
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) have strengthened their partnership to advance financial literacy across the country, with a renewed focus on empowering vulnerable communities, strengthening economic resilience and promoting sustainable development.
The two institutions formally launched the second phase of their collaboration recently, reaffirming their commitment to implementing Sri Lanka’s National Financial Literacy Roadmap (2024–2028), a cornerstone of the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS).
The partnership was marked by a meeting between Central Bank Governor Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe and UNDP Resident Representative in Sri Lanka Ms. Azusa Kubota, together with officials from both organisations.
Building on technical support provided by UNDP during 2024 and 2025, the latest phase seeks to equip individuals, households and businesses with the knowledge required to make sound financial decisions, improve livelihoods and enhance resilience in an increasingly uncertain economic and climatic environment.
The initiative comes at a crucial juncture as Sri Lanka continues its economic recovery while grappling with climate-related challenges that disproportionately affect rural communities and small enterprises.
A key component of the programme will be strengthening the capacity of government outreach officers across all districts to deliver financial literacy training to rural populations and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
The training will be based on the Financial Literacy Curriculum developed by the Central Bank, with UNDP supporting the enhancement of modules through the integration of climate-resilient financial management concepts.
The programme aligns closely with Sri Lanka’s Financial Literacy Roadmap and is expected to contribute significantly to improving financial knowledge and access across the country. It is supported by several development and private-sector partners, including the government of Japan, Chrysalis, VISA and Hirdaramani-Lacoste.
Speaking on the importance of the initiative, Central Bank Governor Dr. Weerasinghe said the partnership would help broaden the reach of financial literacy efforts while addressing emerging challenges such as climate-related financial risks.
“We particularly welcome the focus on strengthening financial resilience, climate-related financial preparedness, public awareness campaigns and capacity-building through Training-of-Trainers programmes, he said.
He noted that the initiatives would ensure that different segments of society gain access to practical financial knowledge and develop the skills necessary to foster responsible financial behaviour and improve their overall financial well-being.
UNDP Resident Representative Ms. Kubota underscored the critical role financial literacy plays in creating inclusive and resilient economies.
“Financial literacy is a critical foundation for inclusive and resilient economies. Through our partnership with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, we have been working to empower individuals, particularly those most vulnerable, with the knowledge and tools needed to make informed financial decisions and build secure livelihoods, she said.
Business
National Export Development Plan (2026–2030) presented to the President
Marking an important milestone in Sri Lanka’s economic development, the National Export Development Plan (NEDP) for the period 2026–2030 was presented to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake on Tuesday morning (16) at the Presidential Secretariat.
The 2026–2030 National Export Development Plan (NEDP) is a key national programme formulated in line with the Government’s policy direction under the 2025 Budget. It aims to strengthen the country’s export sector and achieve export-led sustainable economic growth.
The strategic plan has been developed under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development and the leadership of the Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB), with technical assistance provided through the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Policy-Based Lending (PBL) programme. It is the result of an extensive consultative process carried out in close collaboration with key government institutions, private sector stakeholders, and development partners.
The proposal submitted by the Minister of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development to recognise the “Sri Lanka National Export Development Plan 2026–2030” as the official strategic framework for export development and promotion in Sri Lanka was approved by the Cabinet of Ministers on 4 May 2026. The Plan reflects a broad consensus among government institutions, private sector experts, and international development partners.
In line with the national vision of “A Thriving Nation – A Beautiful Life”, the Plan has been formulated to enhance Sri Lanka’s export competitiveness and achieve an export revenue target of USD 36 billion by 2030.
The core vision of the Plan is to transform Sri Lanka into a competitive logistics and knowledge-based export hub serving regional and global markets. The strategy is based on two key interconnected pillars: “horizontals” and “verticals”, which together provide the foundation for strengthening export competitiveness, diversification, and sustainable growth.
The horizontal enablers, which support the growth and expansion of all priority sectors, include logistics and integrated hub operations, trade facilitation, trade finance and reforms in the business and investment environment, trade promotion and market linkages, quality management, standards, environmental, social and governance (ESG) capacity development, as well as entrepreneurship and innovation.
The Plan also identifies eight priority export sectors to enhance export diversification and value addition, and to position Sri Lanka more competitively in global markets. These include automotive components, mineral-based industries, rubber-based industries, maritime industries (including boat and shipbuilding), spices and concentrates, digital products and services, electrical and electronic equipment, and processed food and beverages.
The preparation of the Plan involved contributions from over 300 stakeholders, including government institutions, the private sector, civil society organisations and international development partners. Broad consensus was achieved through consultations held from October to December 2025 and workshops conducted in January 2026.
The Government expects that, with implementation supported by strong governance and monitoring framework, the Plan will elevate local products to international standards and ensure long-term economic stability and growth. It is further anticipated that the National Export Development Plan will serve as a key driver of Sri Lanka’s economic progress in the years ahead.
Minister of Labour and Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Dr. Anil Jayantha Fernando, Minister of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Sunil Handunnetti, Senior Additional Secretary to the President and Secretary to the Ministry of Energy Russell Aponso, Secretary to the Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Thilaka Jayasundara, and Chairman of the Sri Lanka Export Development Board Mangala Wijesinghe were also present at the event.
[PMD]
Business
Handunnetti unveils state-led mineral strategy to unlock hidden wealth
The government’s decision to ban the export of mineral resources in raw form and place all future mineral exploration under state control has triggered fresh debate over how Sri Lanka should develop its untapped mineral wealth and attract foreign investment.
Announcing the new National Mineral Policy, Industry and Entrepreneurship Development Minister Sunil Handunnetti said the country had long failed to capture the full value of its mineral resources by exporting them with minimal processing.
“We will no longer allow mineral resources to leave the country in raw form,” the minister said, arguing that Sri Lanka must move towards value-added industries that generate greater economic returns.
A key feature of the new policy is the transfer of all mineral exploration activities to the state-run Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB). Under the new system, the GSMB will carry out exploration, publish geological data and subsequently invite investors to participate in commercially viable projects.
Handunnetti defended the move by citing what he described as the failure of the previous licensing regime. According to government figures, 471 exploration licences had been issued since 1993, but only 28 advanced to mining operations, with just 12 remaining active today. The minister alleged that some companies had used exploration licences to boost corporate valuations rather than develop actual mining projects.
He also stressed that mineral deposits located beneath privately owned land belong to the state and should be developed in the national interest.
However, the reforms are likely to attract close scrutiny from foreign investors seeking opportunities in Sri Lanka’s mineral sector.
An independent industry analyst said the policy’s emphasis on value addition is consistent with global trends, as countries increasingly seek to process critical minerals domestically rather than export raw materials.
“The more difficult question is whether a state-controlled exploration model can generate the confidence required by international investors,” the analyst said. “Investors will want access to reliable geological data, transparent licensing procedures and predictable regulations before committing significant capital.”
The analyst noted that the government’s plan to publish exploration data before inviting investment proposals could help improve transparency, but its success would depend on how scientifically the process is implemented.
Sri Lanka possesses commercially valuable deposits of graphite, mineral sands, ilmenite, rutile, garnet, silica and phosphate. As global demand for industrial and strategic minerals continues to grow, the new policy represents a significant test of whether stronger state involvement can translate geological potential into investment, industrial development and export earnings.
“The success of the strategy may ultimately depend on whether the government can balance tighter control over mineral resources with the policy certainty and commercial incentives that international investors typically seek,” the analyst said.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
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