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NPP/JVP popularity surge in Feb. Opinion Tracker

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The latest Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) completed in February 2023 shows that nationally voters are consolidating around the NPP/JVP and the SJB.According to the latest national survey by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), voters are also consolidating around the ITAK and SJB in the Northern Province. The survey also shows that support for the SLPP, SLFP and UNP is falling.

Overall, NPP/JVP support surged in February giving it a clear lead with 43% of likely General Election voters, compared with 30% for the SJB.The SLPP, UNP and ITAK were trailing far behind with support of 4% of likely voters each, and SLFP support remained at 2%.

The NPP/JVP lead in February would have been larger if not for a gap in voter enthusiasm with its supporters saying they are less likely to vote. We estimate this reduces its lead over the SJB from 15 points among all adults (44% vs. 29%) to 13% among likely voters.

The surge in favour of the NPP/JVP follows three months in which it ran neck-and-neck with the SJB. In contrast, there was no increase in support for the SJB in February. IHP’s latest MRP analysis of likely voters indicates that in the 12 months since February 2022 when SLPP support last peaked, the NPP/JVP has gained 30 points and the SJB 11 points.

Meanwhile, the SLPP and SLFP have lost 28 and 15 points respectively, and the UNP has seen its support fluctuate but end only two points higher. During these twelve months, support for the NPP/JVP has fluctuated, peaking in April and in July 2022, and then again currently, but over the long term its support has steadily risen. In contrast, the increase in support for the SJB has been slower but also less volatile.

The fluctuations in support for the NPP/JVP indicate that it has benefited from successive swings in floating voters. During February–April 2022, it gained support from the SLPP and SLFP; then during May–July 2022 it benefited from more voters abandoning the SLPP; and most recently from October 2022, it has gained from declines in support for the SLPP and the UNP.In the Northern Province, ITAK has gradually gained support, with the SJB and JVP also making gains. The NPP/JVP and SJB share the lead in the other provinces.

Overall trends in the past three months suggest that the electorate is moving on from the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Presidency when voter preferences remained fluid and voters divided across five national parties.

The NPP/JVP and SJB appear now to have emerged as the primary choices of most voters, with the former and the latter receiving the support of almost eight out of 10 voters. The other three leading national parties—the SLPP, SLFP and UNP—are still likely to win some seats in a general election, but all three would fail to win seats in many districts.

During the last four months, the NPP/JVP has led in the Western, Southern, North-Central and North-Western provinces, whilst the SJB has led in Central, Eastern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces.

Dr. Rannan-Eliya, SLOTS lead investigator and IHP Executive Director, pointed out that on these trends, the SLPP, SLFP and UNP would fail to win seats in many districts if a General Election is held today, as they would win insufficient votes to meet the thresholds.

He added that the latest polling indicates that the electorate appears to be moving on from the confusion that followed the collapse of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration when voters switched repeatedly between parties with no set of parties dominating.



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Sri Lanka Coast Guard commence clearing oil spill in Maduru Oya Reservoir

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The Sri Lanka Coast Guard launched an operation to clear the oil spill  caused by the crash of a Sri Lanka Air Force Bell 212 helicopter into the Maduru Oya Reservoir, during a training flight on 09 May 2025.

The  efforts to clear the oil spill  are ongoing and will continue today, 10 May.

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Maduru Oya helicopter crash: Army, Air Force launch probes

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Rescue teams searching for the missing military personnel after yesterday’s SLAF chopper crash in the Maduru Oya. (Image courtesy Derana)

Bell 212 accident during passing out parade kills six military personnel, injures six others

A Bell 212 helicopter, belonging to the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF), crashed into the Maduru Oya reservoir yesterday morning, killing six forces personnel and injuring six others. The helicopter was on a routine mission in support of a Special Forces passing-out parade when it encountered technical difficulties and attempted an emergency landing.

The crash occurred at approximately 8:17 a.m., after the helicopter took off from the SLAF Base Hingurakgoda, at 6:47 a.m., and picked up Army personnel in Maduru Oya around 7:08 a.m. According to the SLAF, the aircraft was conducting a heli-rappelling drill as part of a military demonstration when it suffered a technical malfunction shortly after takeoff.

The aircraft was carrying 12 individuals—six from the Army and six from the Air Force, including two pilots. Initial rescue efforts led to all passengers being retrieved alive and transported to the Aralaganwila Regional Hospital, with eight later transferred to the Polonnaruwa General Hospital due to the severity of their injuries.

Despite emergency medical care, six of the personnel succumbed to their injuries—four Army Special Forces soldiers and two Air Force members. Among the deceased were helicopter gunmen and elite Special Forces troops.

In the wake of the tragedy, both the Army and Air Force have launched separate investigations to determine the cause of the crash. Air Force Commander Air Marshal Bandu Edirisinghe has appointed a nine-member inquiry committee, while Army Commander Lieutenant General Lasantha Rodrigo confirmed that expert teams have been dispatched to the crash site to gather evidence.

Air Force spokesperson Group Captain Eranda Geeganage said the crash occurred during a drill demonstration at the training school and that the exact cause of the accident remains unknown at this time.The remaining six injured personnel are still receiving treatment, with their conditions being closely monitored.

 By Norman Palihawadane

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Cardinal Prevost becomes Pope Leo XIV

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Pope Leo XIV

Nearly half a century has passed since the Catholic Church last had an Italian Pope. In the hallowed corridors of the Vatican, as the Conclave began deliberations to elect a successor to Pope Francis, several Italian names were whispered with increasing frequency. Chief among them was Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, a seasoned diplomat, and well-known among the electors. Others, like Cardinals Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Matteo Zuppi, also had their share of admirers.

Yet, when the white smoke rose above the Sistine Chapel, it was not an Italian who emerged. Instead, the Cardinals turned to an unheralded American – Robert Francis Prevost, a canon law professor and lifelong missionary – electing him as successor to St. Peter. He has taken the name Pope Leo XIV.

Though born in the United States, Pope Leo’s spiritual and pastoral heart lies in Peru, where he spent much of his life in missionary service. His elevation comes as a surprise to many as he had been made a Cardinal just two years earlier, appointed by Pope Francis himself. A relative newcomer in the College of Cardinals, he was seen by many as a wildcard – yet perhaps that’s exactly what the Church needed.

At 69, Pope Leo is poised for what could be a lengthy pontificate – time enough, perhaps, to carry forward the reforms initiated by his predecessor. It’s no secret that Pope Francis saw in him a leader fit for the challenges of global Catholicism. When Prevost returned from Peru to head the Augustinian Order – a role he held for 12 years – it was Francis who sent him back across continents, appointing him Bishop of Chiclayo and entrusting him with pastoral care once more in Peru.

Those close to the new Pontiff describe him as deeply spiritual, a steady hand, and a bridge-builder, qualities sorely needed in a Church increasingly split between traditionalists and reformists. He is expected to offer a more measured, balanced approach on key issues, fostering dialogue rather than division.

In many ways, this Conclave echoed the dramatic scenes of October 1978, when an unknown outsider from Poland – Karol Wojtyla – was chosen as Pope John Paul II. Like then, the Cardinals have once again looked beyond the obvious front-runners. But, unlike 1978, when it took eight ballots to break the deadlock and settle on a compromise, this time it took just four.

That speed speaks volumes. The Cardinals were not merely settling – they were convinced that here’s the man to take the Church forward. In Cardinal Prevost, they found a shepherd capable of steering the Church through a time of transition, someone who could temper Franciscan reform with pastoral wisdom and unite a divided flock under the banner of faith and humility.

By Rex Clementine

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