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NPP/JVP popularity surge in Feb. Opinion Tracker
The latest Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) completed in February 2023 shows that nationally voters are consolidating around the NPP/JVP and the SJB.According to the latest national survey by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), voters are also consolidating around the ITAK and SJB in the Northern Province. The survey also shows that support for the SLPP, SLFP and UNP is falling.
Overall, NPP/JVP support surged in February giving it a clear lead with 43% of likely General Election voters, compared with 30% for the SJB.The SLPP, UNP and ITAK were trailing far behind with support of 4% of likely voters each, and SLFP support remained at 2%.
The NPP/JVP lead in February would have been larger if not for a gap in voter enthusiasm with its supporters saying they are less likely to vote. We estimate this reduces its lead over the SJB from 15 points among all adults (44% vs. 29%) to 13% among likely voters.
The surge in favour of the NPP/JVP follows three months in which it ran neck-and-neck with the SJB. In contrast, there was no increase in support for the SJB in February. IHP’s latest MRP analysis of likely voters indicates that in the 12 months since February 2022 when SLPP support last peaked, the NPP/JVP has gained 30 points and the SJB 11 points.
Meanwhile, the SLPP and SLFP have lost 28 and 15 points respectively, and the UNP has seen its support fluctuate but end only two points higher. During these twelve months, support for the NPP/JVP has fluctuated, peaking in April and in July 2022, and then again currently, but over the long term its support has steadily risen. In contrast, the increase in support for the SJB has been slower but also less volatile.
The fluctuations in support for the NPP/JVP indicate that it has benefited from successive swings in floating voters. During February–April 2022, it gained support from the SLPP and SLFP; then during May–July 2022 it benefited from more voters abandoning the SLPP; and most recently from October 2022, it has gained from declines in support for the SLPP and the UNP.In the Northern Province, ITAK has gradually gained support, with the SJB and JVP also making gains. The NPP/JVP and SJB share the lead in the other provinces.
Overall trends in the past three months suggest that the electorate is moving on from the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Presidency when voter preferences remained fluid and voters divided across five national parties.
The NPP/JVP and SJB appear now to have emerged as the primary choices of most voters, with the former and the latter receiving the support of almost eight out of 10 voters. The other three leading national parties—the SLPP, SLFP and UNP—are still likely to win some seats in a general election, but all three would fail to win seats in many districts.
During the last four months, the NPP/JVP has led in the Western, Southern, North-Central and North-Western provinces, whilst the SJB has led in Central, Eastern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces.
Dr. Rannan-Eliya, SLOTS lead investigator and IHP Executive Director, pointed out that on these trends, the SLPP, SLFP and UNP would fail to win seats in many districts if a General Election is held today, as they would win insufficient votes to meet the thresholds.
He added that the latest polling indicates that the electorate appears to be moving on from the confusion that followed the collapse of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration when voters switched repeatedly between parties with no set of parties dominating.
Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi departed today (06) from Air Force Base Anuradhapura concluding his State visit to Sri Lanka. The Indian Premier embarked on a tour to Sri Lanka at the invitation from President Anura Kumara Disanayake.
This visit underscores the enduring relationship encapsulated by the theme “Friendship of Centuries, Commitment to a Prosperous Future,” further solidifying the bonds between India and Sri Lanka.
This marks Prime Minister Modi’s fourth visit to Sri Lanka, which has further enhanced the economic, cultural, and historical relations between the two nations, while also reinforcing their multifaceted partnership. This visit by the Indian Prime Minister reinforces Sri Lanka’s important role in India’s “Neighbourhood First Policy” and ‘MAHASAGAR’ vision concerning diplomatic relations.
This state visit is anticipated to yield significant results on various collaborative initiatives, fostering a path towards mutual growth and development. The citizens of Sri Lanka will soon be able to witness the fruitful outcomes of these partnerships, and Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s visit will mark a significant milestone in the government’s pursuit of sustainable development focused on the needs of the people.
Accompanying Indian Prime Minister Modi were Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and a delegation of senior officials from the Indian government.
[PMD]
Latest News
President Dissanayake and Indian PM Modi jointly commission upgraded Maho-Omanthai railway line & Maho-Anuradhapura railway signalling system
The upgraded Maho–Omanthai railway line and the newly installed Maho–Anuradhapura railway signalling system were officially commissioned by Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and President Anura Kumara Disanayake today (06)
The Prime Minister of India is currently visiting Sri Lanka at the invitation of President Anura Kumara Disanayake, reinforcing the longstanding bond encapsulated in the theme “Friendship of Centuries Commitment to a Prosperous Future” between the two nations.
Highlighting one of the key aspects of this visit, the two leaders participated in these inaugural ceremonies. The President and the Prime Minister of India jointly unveiled the commemorative plaque and commissioned the railway line and signalling system.
The upgraded Maho-Omanthai Railway Line project was carried out with funding through the Indian Credit Line, totalling an investment of US$ 91.27 million. The Maho–Anuradhapura railway signalling system, established as a result of President Disanayake’s recent visit to India, was funded by the Indian Government at a cost of USD 14.89 million.
[PMD]
Latest News
Prime Minister Modi and President Dissanayake pay homage to the sacred Jaya Sri Maha Bodhi
Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, currently on a State visit to Sri Lanka, along with President Anura Kumara Disanayake paid homage to the sacred Jaya Sri Maha Bodhi in Anuradhapura this morning (06) and received blessings.
Following his visit to the sacred site, Prime Minister Modi proceeded to the Udamaluwa, where he met with the Chief Incumbent of the Atamasthanadhipathi and Chief Sanghanayake of Nuwarakalaviya, Most Venerable Dr. Pallegama Hemarathana Nayaka Thera, for a cordial discussion.
During the meeting, the Prime Minister shared that relics of the Buddha were discovered in excavations conducted in his home state of Gujarat during the 1960s. He further stated that he would discuss with the President of Sri Lanka the possibility of exhibiting these sacred relics in Sri Lanka.
Responding to a request made by the Atamasthanadhipathi to develop Bodh Gaya as a spiritual city, Prime Minister Modi assured that he would take the necessary steps after discussions with President Disanayake and work towards making it a reality.
The Maha Sangha, led by the Atamasthanadhipathi, chanted Seth Pirith and invoked blessings on the Indian Prime Minister.
The Indian Prime Minister also left a commemorative note in the special guest book at the site. In addition, he formally declared open the newly constructed ‘Makara Thorana’ within the Jaya Sri Maha Bodhi premises.
The occasion was also attended by Chief Incumbent of the Ruwanweli Maha Seya Temple Ven. Ethalawetunawewe Gnanathilaka Thera and other Atamasthana Viharadhipathi Theras, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Employment and Tourism Vijitha Herath, Minister of Trade, Commerce, Food Security and Cooperative Development, Wasantha Samarasinghe, Minister of Health and Mass Media Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa, North Central Province Governor Wasantha Jinadasa, Indian High Commissioner Santosh Jha and others.
[PMD]
Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi concludes State Visit to Sri Lanka
President Dissanayake and Indian PM Modi jointly commission upgraded Maho-Omanthai railway line & Maho-Anuradhapura railway signalling system
Prime Minister Modi and President Dissanayake pay homage to the sacred Jaya Sri Maha Bodhi
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