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Lanka Adrift in Tempestuous Seas

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by Kumar David

There are three dangerous global trends. The first is not new, it is the growth of right-wing extremism in the US; the second is more recent and commenced in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The third is the prospect of Sino-US military hostilities. All three will affect this country. Right-wing extremism turned perilous in the US with the election of Donald Trump whose Administration has lived alongside hate groups and an extreme legislative agenda (anti-environmental, anti-feminist, anti-LGBT). In the state of Idaho extremist Ammon Bundy has a chance of being elected State Governor.

America

With disarray in the Democratic Party which fears defeat in mid-term Congressional elections in November and a likely return of Trump to the presidency in 2024, the stage is set for a further drift of the US to right-extremism. Trump seems near certain to be re-elected in 2024 unless convicted of illegalities and barred from contesting. But this may lead to unrest led by the large white working-class base of the Republican Party. It is reasonable to speculate that the United States is on its way, if it happens then for some years only I am sure, to turning right-extremist. What difference will a temporary death of democracy in America mean for midgets like Sri Lanka?

The truthful answer to this is curious; it belongs in the domain of “known unknowns” meaning that we know that the effect could swing in two entirely different ways. The US is the world’s premier military and diplomatic, and one of two leading economic powers. Its influence is large and if it chooses to hound Lanka’s war-criminals and leaders who savaged human-rights it can make life hard for such vermin. On the other hand a right-extremist influenced USA may swing the other way, it could for reasons of its own cut a deal, as it has often done, with the military, leaders who are the scourge of democracy and mass murderers – think Pinochet and dozens of brutal Latin American regimes in the last 50 years.

Russian military losses in Ukraine are huge; some estimate as high as 60,000. (Ukrainian military losses seem to be less than a quarter of this). Both sides are digging in for a cold winter of attrition and trench warfare extending well into 2023; the invasion truly is a gigantic Putin blunder. The Ukraine-Russia policy of zero-integrity Trump’s mongrel hypothetical second Administration, supported by fascist trends in the US can be bizarre. His empathy for Putin, antipathy to NATO and the resemblances of US right-extremism to its European counterparts make outcomes unpredictable. Meanwhile Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is under attack by Russian artillery; bombing nuclear power plant is not banned by international law. It’s a dangerous world. Big countries have deep enough financial pockets and sufficient economic resources to mollify their populations, a small country is a hapless skiff adrift on a tempestuous ocean.

Europe

Outcomes seem more predictable in post Ukraine-invasion Europe. Western Europe’s choices are stark. The continent is desperate to minimise dependence on Russian gas, coal and strategic materials – the poor spend an astounding 50% of their income on energy. Germany’s long-term energy plans have come unstuck, the drive to a green future has been reversed. Mothballed coal power stations are to be brought into service and three nuclear power plants that were to be decommissioned have been given a lease of life. This is bad news all round, instability in energy markets is not good for anyone, especially small fry.

Apart from energy dependence, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is also dependent on Russian metals and minerals as are other European industries to varying degrees. Russia has rich reserves of manganese, chromium, nickel, platinum, titanium and the conventional materials iron ore, copper, tin, lead, tungsten, diamonds, phosphates, and gold. Siberia nurtures one-fifth of the world’s timber. Although Lanka is of miniscule significance, Europe’s desire to keep open international supply chains on which its industries depend will be helpful in our quest to preserve GSP+ benefits.

On other counts too, the post invasion environment is troublesome. Russia is the largest urea exporter; one reason for surging fertilizer prices is prices of natural gas and energy needed in urea production. (As of mid-2022 there were indications that urea prices would decline later this year due to a slow start to seeding in the US). Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of nitrogenous fertiliser, phosphates and potash. Ukraine and Russia are big food exporters and the imbroglio will lead to higher global food prices. All these concerns affect Sri Lanka agriculture directly and via their effect on world food prices.

Sino-US conflict

The danger of spreading Sino-American conflict is chilling for everybody, especially the countries of East Asia, the Far East and the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile visit to Taiwan at this time was foolish and provocative. Pelosi visited the island in defiance of threats from Beijing which views Taiwan as a breakaway province and warned it would consider the visit a major provocation. It was undertaken entirely in the hope of gaining votes for the Democrats in the November 2022 Congressional elections, which expectation will come to nought. It so incensed China that for the first time it conducted military drills that butted into Taiwan’s territorial waters. Outright Sino-US conflict confined even to this theatre is unlikely because neither side has the appetite to escalate, but the visit has destabilised the region and increased the cost of shipping in East Asia and through the Malacca Straits.

A lot is at stake for Chinese leader Xi Jinping who is making an unprecedented since Mao bid for a third term. Xi who came to power in 2012 placed reunification-with-Taiwan high on his agenda; perhaps he will live to regret it as he will be unable to deliver within any foreseeable time-frame. He may wish to turn to domestic issues but it is hard to see how he can link these to the Pelosi visit. China is plagued by a property crisis, and an economic slowdown due to its strict zero-Covid lockdown. According to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post there are fifty million empty flats in China which threaten to plunge the property market into chaos. These two factors have provoked protests but Xi will not be able to link them to the Pelosi visit and distract attention away from domestic failures. It is most unlikely that Xi’s grip on power will be challenged at the 2022 Congress in November but his inability to deliver on reunification will make him look weak in the ensuing period – Party Congresses are held every five years. This his third-term is likely to be his last.

China is unable to make a critical building block of the global economy: top of the line silicon chips. It buys 60% of the world’s supply of semiconductors to drive its vast industrial product output; 90% are made outside the country or by foreign companies in China. It spends more buying computer chips than importing oil. But it is struggling to keep up in the technological arms race. Why? Its champion in the foundry industry (makers of integrated circuits) Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp last year announced plans to build a 28-nanometre chip but this technology is a decade behind TSMC’s 3-nanometer chip. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp is the world’s top chip maker.

TSMC’s dominance ensures Taiwan’s grip on 60% of the global chip business. Furthermore, nine out of the ten outfits which design rather than make chips (“fabless” or non-fabricating outfits), and also drive innovation are US based; the tenth, MediaTek, is Taiwanese. In various ways the US controls half the global chip market and China only 10% and these are technically less sophisticated, more useful for industrial than military uses. China is pouring billions into a chip-building but faces strategic impediments. It is shackled by geopolitical tensions, a hawkish Washington and economic damage caused by its own zero-Covid policy. The sun does not seem to be shining brightly on President Xi. Increases is cost of Chinese merchandise, disruptions to supply chains and big increases in shipping prices are more bad news. For foreign countries the negative effect is the rising costs of Chinese products.

I do not want to sign off on a depressing note, surely there are things we can do. I have been boringly insistent that we as a country have no option but to tighten our belts. Provision has to be made for the poorest but everybody else will feel the pinch. A graded system of price differentiation for all classes, except income tax gradation, is not feasible. Income tax on the rich will certainly have to be raised and a wealth tax and an inheritance tax introduced. True everybody, not only the rich benefited from 70 years of eating more than we produced and from extravagant imports paid for by profligacy in foreign and local debt. However, it is also true that expensive luxuries (fancy cars, foreign travel, fashionable merchandise) were almost entirely for the benefit of the affluent. An incomes and taxation policy that targets better off incomes is justified.

Contradictions in policy space are unavoidable. Exchange controls have to be relaxed to attract foreign investment and the inflow of capital in general. Then the rupee-dollar relationship will decline at the cost of the former – will 2023/24 witness the horror of LKR 1000 to the $ and therefore near galloping inflation? [Galloping inflation grows at dual or triple-digit annual rates, usually for a brief period. Hyperinflation runs at hundreds or thousands of percent per annum and is a precursor of anarchy, revolution or fascism]. High interest rates to curb inflation will shackle growth, hobble small and medium enterprises and crush the informal sector.

There is a reasonable chance that the country will navigate these torrents without shipwreck. Though there is all-round acceptance that some degree of belt-tightening is unavoidable, everyone, even aragalaya grants that revolution is not around the corner and agrees that the risk of anarchy is real. Trade unions, liberals and urban and rural folk agree that Ranil must, and can, be kept on a tight leash re democracy. Hence, I am moderately confident that bourgeois-democracy, albeit doused with economic hardship will come off the life-support system in say a year and that the IMF, India, Western capitalism, and China will wink and give us a hand to climb out of the mire. Reports say that preliminary agreement on a loan has been reached and will be announced a day or two after these lines are written.

Or like Toselli’s serenade is it only a ‘golden dream’, an improbable ‘vision fair’ that a Colour Revolution may deliver rewards? Perhaps I was optimistic when I gushed in this column on April 24 “The people’s uprising is a colour-revolution, a vision fair, a celebration of happier days to come. The light beaming from the radiant eyes of the young is the first time in our two-thousand-year story, to quote a comment, that we have seen anything like it”. I hope my lyricism is not lopsided. Never has a people’s uprising in Lanka driven out an unjust ruler. Regime change so far has always been by armies brought from India ( Moggallana) or conspiracy between Court and foreign colonisers (Kotte and Kandyan Kingdoms).



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Features

Cricket and the National Interest

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The appointment of former minister Eran Wickremaratne to chair the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee is significant for more than the future of cricket. It signals a possible shift in the culture of governance even as it offers Sri Lankan cricket a fighting possibility to get out of the doldrums of failure. There have been glorious patches for the national cricket team since the epochal 1996 World Cup triumph. But these patches of brightness have been few and far between and virtually non-existent over the past decade. At the centre of this disaster has been the failures of governance within Sri Lanka Cricket which are not unlike the larger failures of governance within the country itself. The appointment of a new reform oriented committee therefore carries significance beyond cricket. It reflects the wider challenge facing the country which is to restore trust in public institutions for better management.

The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne brings a professional administrator with a proven track record into the cricket arena. He has several strengths that many of his immediate predecessors lacked. Before the ascent of the present government leadership to positions of power, Eran Wickremaratne was among the handful of government ministers who did not have allegations of corruption attached to their names. His reputation for financial professionalism and integrity has remained intact over many years in public life. With him in the Cricket Transformation Committee are also respected former cricketers Kumar Sangakkara, Roshan Mahanama and Sidath Wettimuny together with professionals from legal and business backgrounds. They have been tasked with introducing structural reforms and improving transparency and accountability within cricket administration.

A second reason for this appointment to be significant is that this is possibly the first occasion on which the NPP government has reached out to someone associated with the opposition to obtain assistance in an area of national importance. The commitment to bipartisanship has been a constant demand from politically non-partisan civic groups and political analysts. They have voiced the opinion that the government needs to be more inclusive in its choice of appointments to decision making authorities. The NPP government’s practice so far has largely been to limit appointments to those within the ruling party or those considered loyalists even at the cost of proven expertise. The government’s decision in this case therefore marks a potentially important departure.

National Interest

There are areas of public life where national interest should transcend party divisions and cricket, beloved of the people, is one of them. Sri Lanka cannot afford to continue treating every institution as an arena for political competition when institutions themselves are in crisis and public confidence has become fragile. It is therefore unfortunate that when the government has moved positively in the direction of drawing on expertise from outside its own ranks there should be a negative response from sections of the opposition. This is indicative of the absence of a culture of bipartisanship even on issues that concern the national interest. The SJB, of which the newly appointed cricket committee chairman was a member objected on the grounds that politicians should not hold positions in sports administration and asked him to resign from the party. There is a need to recognise the distinction between partisan political control and the temporary use of experienced administrators to carry out reform and institutional restructuring. In other countries those in politics often join academia and civil society on a temporary basis and vice versa.

More disturbing has been the insidious campaign carried out against the new cricket committee and its chairman on the grounds of religious affiliation. This is an unacceptable denial of the reality that Sri Lanka is a plural, multi ethnic and multi religious society. The interim committee reflects this diversity to a reasonable extent. The country’s long history of ethnic conflict should have taught all political actors the dangers of mobilising communal prejudice for short term political gain. Sri Lanka paid a very heavy price for decades of mistrust and division. It would be tragic if even cricket administration became another arena for communal suspicion and hostility. The present government represents an important departure from the sectarian rhetoric that was employed by previous governments. They have repeatedly pledged to protect the equal rights of all citizens and not permit discrimination or extremism in any form.

The recent international peace march in Sri Lanka led by the Venerable Bhikkhu Thich Paññākāra from Vietnam with its message of loving kindness and mindfulness to all resonated strongly with the masses of people as seen by the crowds who thronged the roadsides to obtain blessings and show respect. This message stands in contrast to the sectarian resentment manifested by those who seek to use the cricket appointments as a weapon to attack the government at the present time. The challenges before the Sri Lanka Cricket Transformation Committee parallel the larger challenges before the government in developing the national economy and respecting ethnic and religious diversity. Plugging the leaks and restoring systems will take time and effort. It cannot be done overnight and it cannot succeed without public patience and support.

New Recognition

There is also a need for realism. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee does not guarantee success. Reforming deeply flawed institutions is always difficult. Besides, Sri Lanka is a small country with a relatively small population compared to many other cricket playing nations. It is also a country still recovering from the economic breakdown of 2022 which pushed the majority of people into hardship and severely weakened public institutions. The country continues to face unprecedented challenges including the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah and the wider global economic uncertainties linked to conflict in the Middle East. Under these difficult circumstances Sri Lanka has fewer resources than many larger countries to devote to both cricket and economic development.

When resources are scarce they cannot be wasted through corruption or incompetence. Drawing upon the strengths of all those who are competent for the tasks at hand regardless of party affiliation or ethnic or religious identity is necessary if improvement is to come sooner rather than later. The burden of rebuilding the country cannot rest only on the government. The crisis facing the country is too deep for any single party or government to solve alone. National recovery requires capable individuals from across society and from different sectors such as business and civil society to work together in areas where the national interest transcends party politics. There is also a responsibility on opposition political parties to support initiatives that are politically neutral and genuinely in the national interest. Not every issue needs to become a partisan battle.

Sri Lanka cricket occupies a special place in the national consciousness. At its best it once united the country and gave Sri Lankans a sense of pride and international recognition. Restoring integrity and professionalism to cricket administration can therefore become part of the larger task of national renewal. The appointment of Eran Wickremaratne and the new committee, while it does not guarantee success, is a sign that the political leadership and people of the country may be beginning to mature in their approach to governance. In recognising the need for competence, integrity and bipartisan cooperation and extending it beyond cricket into other areas of national life, Sri Lanka may find the way towards more stable and successful governance..

by Jehan Perera

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From Dhaka to Sri Lanka, three wheels that drive our economies

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Court vacation this year came with an unexpected lesson, not from a courtroom but from the streets of Dhaka — a city that moves, quite literally, on three wheels.

Above the traffic, a modern metro line glides past concrete pillars and crowded rooftops. It is efficient, clean and frequently cited as a symbol of progress in Bangladesh. For a visitor from Sri Lanka, it inevitably brings to mind our own abandoned light rail plans — a project debated, politicised and ultimately set aside.

But Dhaka’s real story is not in the air. It is on the ground.

Beneath the elevated tracks, the streets belong to three-wheelers. Known locally as CNGs, they cluster at junctions, line the edges of markets and pour into narrow roads that larger vehicles avoid. Even with a functioning rail system, these three-wheelers remain the city’s most dependable form of everyday transport.

Within hours of arriving, their importance becomes obvious. The train may take you across the city, but the journey does not end there. The last mile — often the most complicated part — belongs entirely to the three-wheeler. It is the vehicle that gets you home, to a meeting or simply through streets that no bus route properly serves.

There is a rhythm to using them. A destination is mentioned, a price is suggested and a brief negotiation follows. Then the ride begins, edging into traffic that feels permanently compressed. Drivers move with instinct, adjusting routes and squeezing through gaps with a confidence built over years.

It is not polished. But it works.

And that is where the comparison with Sri Lanka becomes less about what we lack and more about what we already have.

Back home, the three-wheeler has long been part of daily life — so familiar that it is often discussed only in terms of its problems. There are frequent complaints about fares, refusals or the absence of meters. More recently, the industry itself has become entangled in politics — from fuel subsidies to regulatory debates, from election-time promises to periodic crackdowns.

In that process, the conversation has shifted. The three-wheeler is often treated as a problem to be managed, rather than a service to be strengthened.

Yet, seen through the experience of Dhaka, Sri Lanka’s system begins to look far more settled — and, in many ways, ahead.

There is a growing structure in place. Meters, while not perfect, are widely recognised. Ride-hailing apps have added transparency and reduced uncertainty for passengers. There are clearer expectations on both sides — driver and commuter alike. Even small details, such as designated parking areas in parts of Colombo or the increasing standard of vehicles, point to an industry slowly moving towards professionalism.

Just as importantly, there is a human element that remains intact.

In Sri Lanka, a three-wheeler ride is rarely just a transaction. Drivers talk. They offer directions, comment on the day’s news, or share local knowledge. The ride becomes part of the social fabric, not just a means of getting from one point to another.

In Dhaka, the scale of the city leaves less room for that. The interaction is quicker, more direct, shaped by urgency. The service is essential, but it is under constant pressure.

What stands out, across both countries, is that the three-wheeler is not a temporary or outdated mode of transport. It is a necessity in dense, fast-growing Asian cities — one that fills gaps no rail or bus system can fully address.

Large infrastructure projects, like light rail, are important. They bring efficiency and long-term capacity. But they cannot replace the flexibility of a three-wheeler. They cannot reach into narrow streets, respond instantly to demand or provide that crucial last-mile connection.

That is why, even in a city that has invested heavily in modern rail, Dhaka still runs on three wheels.

For Sri Lanka, the lesson is not simply about what could have been built, but about what should be better managed and valued.

The three-wheeler industry does not need to be politicised at every turn. It needs steady regulation — clear fare systems, proper licensing, safety standards — alongside encouragement and recognition. It needs to be seen as part of the solution to urban transport, not as a side issue.

Because for thousands of drivers, it is a livelihood. And for millions of passengers, it is the most immediate and reliable form of mobility.

The tuk-tuk may not feature in grand policy speeches or infrastructure blueprints. It does not run on elevated tracks or attract international attention. But on the ground, where daily life unfolds, it continues to do what larger systems often struggle to do — show up, adapt and keep moving.

And after watching Dhaka’s streets — crowded, relentless, yet functioning — that small, three-wheeled vehicle feels less like something to argue over and more like something to get right.

(The writer is an Attorney-at-Law with over a decade of experience specialising in civil law, a former Board Member of the Office of Missing Persons and a former Legal Director of the Central Cultural Fund. He holds an LLM in International Business Law)

 

by Sampath Perera recently in Dhaka, Bangladesh 

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Dubai scene … opening up

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Seven Notes: Operating in Dubai

According to reports coming my way, the entertainment scene, in Dubai, is very much opening up, and buzzing again!

After a quieter few months, May is packed with entertainment and the whole scene, they say, is shifting back into full swing.

The Seven Notes band, made up of Sri Lankans, based in Dubai, are back in the spotlight, after a short hiatus, due to the ongoing Middle East problems.

On 18th April they did Legends Night at Mercure Hotel Dubai Barsha Heights; on Thursday, 9th May, they will be at the Sports Bar of the Mercure Hotel for 70s/80s Retro Night; on 6th June, they will be at Al Jadaf Dubai to provide the music for Sandun Perera live in concert … and with more dates to follow.

These events are expected to showcase the band’s evolving sound, tighter stage coordination, and stronger audience engagement.

With each performance, the band aims to refine its identity and build a loyal following within Dubai’s vibrant nightlife and event scene.

Pasindu Umayanga: The group’s new vocalist

What makes Seven Notes standout is their versatility which has made the band a dynamic and promising act.

With a growing performance calendar, new talent integration, and international ambitions, the band is definitely entering a defining phase of its journey.

Dubai’s music industry, I’m told, thrives on diversity, energy, and audience connection, with live bands playing a crucial role in elevating events—from corporate shows to private concerts. Against this backdrop, Seven Notes is positioning itself not just as another band, but as a performance-driven musical unit focused on consistency and growth.

Adding fresh momentum to the group is Pasindu Umayanga who joins Seven Notes as their new vocalist. This move signals a strategic upgrade—not just filling a role, but strengthening the band’s front-line presence.

Looking beyond local stages, Seven Notes is preparing for an international tour, to Korea, in July.

Bassist Niluk Uswaththa: Spokesperson for Seven Notes

According to bassist Niluk Uswaththa, taking a band abroad means: Your sound must hold up against unfamiliar audiences, your performance must translate beyond language, and your discipline must be at a professional level.

“If executed well, this tour could redefine Seven Notes from a local band into an emerging international act,” added Niluk.

He went on to say that Dubai is not an easy market. It’s saturated with highly experienced, multi-genre bands that can adapt instantly to any crowd.

“To stand out consistently you need to have tight rehearsal discipline, unique sound identity (not just covers), strong stage chemistry, audience retention – not just applause.”

No doubt, Seven Notes is entering a critical growth phase—new member, multiple shows, and an international tour on the horizon. The opportunity is real, but so is the pressure.

However, there is talk that Seven Notes will soon be a recognised name in the regional music scene.

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