Features
Lanka Adrift in Tempestuous Seas
by Kumar David
There are three dangerous global trends. The first is not new, it is the growth of right-wing extremism in the US; the second is more recent and commenced in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The third is the prospect of Sino-US military hostilities. All three will affect this country. Right-wing extremism turned perilous in the US with the election of Donald Trump whose Administration has lived alongside hate groups and an extreme legislative agenda (anti-environmental, anti-feminist, anti-LGBT). In the state of Idaho extremist Ammon Bundy has a chance of being elected State Governor.
America
With disarray in the Democratic Party which fears defeat in mid-term Congressional elections in November and a likely return of Trump to the presidency in 2024, the stage is set for a further drift of the US to right-extremism. Trump seems near certain to be re-elected in 2024 unless convicted of illegalities and barred from contesting. But this may lead to unrest led by the large white working-class base of the Republican Party. It is reasonable to speculate that the United States is on its way, if it happens then for some years only I am sure, to turning right-extremist. What difference will a temporary death of democracy in America mean for midgets like Sri Lanka?
The truthful answer to this is curious; it belongs in the domain of “known unknowns” meaning that we know that the effect could swing in two entirely different ways. The US is the world’s premier military and diplomatic, and one of two leading economic powers. Its influence is large and if it chooses to hound Lanka’s war-criminals and leaders who savaged human-rights it can make life hard for such vermin. On the other hand a right-extremist influenced USA may swing the other way, it could for reasons of its own cut a deal, as it has often done, with the military, leaders who are the scourge of democracy and mass murderers – think Pinochet and dozens of brutal Latin American regimes in the last 50 years.

Russian military losses in Ukraine are huge; some estimate as high as 60,000. (Ukrainian military losses seem to be less than a quarter of this). Both sides are digging in for a cold winter of attrition and trench warfare extending well into 2023; the invasion truly is a gigantic Putin blunder. The Ukraine-Russia policy of zero-integrity Trump’s mongrel hypothetical second Administration, supported by fascist trends in the US can be bizarre. His empathy for Putin, antipathy to NATO and the resemblances of US right-extremism to its European counterparts make outcomes unpredictable. Meanwhile Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is under attack by Russian artillery; bombing nuclear power plant is not banned by international law. It’s a dangerous world. Big countries have deep enough financial pockets and sufficient economic resources to mollify their populations, a small country is a hapless skiff adrift on a tempestuous ocean.
Europe
Outcomes seem more predictable in post Ukraine-invasion Europe. Western Europe’s choices are stark. The continent is desperate to minimise dependence on Russian gas, coal and strategic materials – the poor spend an astounding 50% of their income on energy. Germany’s long-term energy plans have come unstuck, the drive to a green future has been reversed. Mothballed coal power stations are to be brought into service and three nuclear power plants that were to be decommissioned have been given a lease of life. This is bad news all round, instability in energy markets is not good for anyone, especially small fry.
Apart from energy dependence, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is also dependent on Russian metals and minerals as are other European industries to varying degrees. Russia has rich reserves of manganese, chromium, nickel, platinum, titanium and the conventional materials iron ore, copper, tin, lead, tungsten, diamonds, phosphates, and gold. Siberia nurtures one-fifth of the world’s timber. Although Lanka is of miniscule significance, Europe’s desire to keep open international supply chains on which its industries depend will be helpful in our quest to preserve GSP+ benefits.
On other counts too, the post invasion environment is troublesome. Russia is the largest urea exporter; one reason for surging fertilizer prices is prices of natural gas and energy needed in urea production. (As of mid-2022 there were indications that urea prices would decline later this year due to a slow start to seeding in the US). Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of nitrogenous fertiliser, phosphates and potash. Ukraine and Russia are big food exporters and the imbroglio will lead to higher global food prices. All these concerns affect Sri Lanka agriculture directly and via their effect on world food prices.
Sino-US conflict
The danger of spreading Sino-American conflict is chilling for everybody, especially the countries of East Asia, the Far East and the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile visit to Taiwan at this time was foolish and provocative. Pelosi visited the island in defiance of threats from Beijing which views Taiwan as a breakaway province and warned it would consider the visit a major provocation. It was undertaken entirely in the hope of gaining votes for the Democrats in the November 2022 Congressional elections, which expectation will come to nought. It so incensed China that for the first time it conducted military drills that butted into Taiwan’s territorial waters. Outright Sino-US conflict confined even to this theatre is unlikely because neither side has the appetite to escalate, but the visit has destabilised the region and increased the cost of shipping in East Asia and through the Malacca Straits.
A lot is at stake for Chinese leader Xi Jinping who is making an unprecedented since Mao bid for a third term. Xi who came to power in 2012 placed reunification-with-Taiwan high on his agenda; perhaps he will live to regret it as he will be unable to deliver within any foreseeable time-frame. He may wish to turn to domestic issues but it is hard to see how he can link these to the Pelosi visit. China is plagued by a property crisis, and an economic slowdown due to its strict zero-Covid lockdown. According to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post there are fifty million empty flats in China which threaten to plunge the property market into chaos. These two factors have provoked protests but Xi will not be able to link them to the Pelosi visit and distract attention away from domestic failures. It is most unlikely that Xi’s grip on power will be challenged at the 2022 Congress in November but his inability to deliver on reunification will make him look weak in the ensuing period – Party Congresses are held every five years. This his third-term is likely to be his last.
China is unable to make a critical building block of the global economy: top of the line silicon chips. It buys 60% of the world’s supply of semiconductors to drive its vast industrial product output; 90% are made outside the country or by foreign companies in China. It spends more buying computer chips than importing oil. But it is struggling to keep up in the technological arms race. Why? Its champion in the foundry industry (makers of integrated circuits) Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp last year announced plans to build a 28-nanometre chip but this technology is a decade behind TSMC’s 3-nanometer chip. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp is the world’s top chip maker.

TSMC’s dominance ensures Taiwan’s grip on 60% of the global chip business. Furthermore, nine out of the ten outfits which design rather than make chips (“fabless” or non-fabricating outfits), and also drive innovation are US based; the tenth, MediaTek, is Taiwanese. In various ways the US controls half the global chip market and China only 10% and these are technically less sophisticated, more useful for industrial than military uses. China is pouring billions into a chip-building but faces strategic impediments. It is shackled by geopolitical tensions, a hawkish Washington and economic damage caused by its own zero-Covid policy. The sun does not seem to be shining brightly on President Xi. Increases is cost of Chinese merchandise, disruptions to supply chains and big increases in shipping prices are more bad news. For foreign countries the negative effect is the rising costs of Chinese products.
I do not want to sign off on a depressing note, surely there are things we can do. I have been boringly insistent that we as a country have no option but to tighten our belts. Provision has to be made for the poorest but everybody else will feel the pinch. A graded system of price differentiation for all classes, except income tax gradation, is not feasible. Income tax on the rich will certainly have to be raised and a wealth tax and an inheritance tax introduced. True everybody, not only the rich benefited from 70 years of eating more than we produced and from extravagant imports paid for by profligacy in foreign and local debt. However, it is also true that expensive luxuries (fancy cars, foreign travel, fashionable merchandise) were almost entirely for the benefit of the affluent. An incomes and taxation policy that targets better off incomes is justified.
Contradictions in policy space are unavoidable. Exchange controls have to be relaxed to attract foreign investment and the inflow of capital in general. Then the rupee-dollar relationship will decline at the cost of the former – will 2023/24 witness the horror of LKR 1000 to the $ and therefore near galloping inflation? [Galloping inflation grows at dual or triple-digit annual rates, usually for a brief period. Hyperinflation runs at hundreds or thousands of percent per annum and is a precursor of anarchy, revolution or fascism]. High interest rates to curb inflation will shackle growth, hobble small and medium enterprises and crush the informal sector.
There is a reasonable chance that the country will navigate these torrents without shipwreck. Though there is all-round acceptance that some degree of belt-tightening is unavoidable, everyone, even aragalaya grants that revolution is not around the corner and agrees that the risk of anarchy is real. Trade unions, liberals and urban and rural folk agree that Ranil must, and can, be kept on a tight leash re democracy. Hence, I am moderately confident that bourgeois-democracy, albeit doused with economic hardship will come off the life-support system in say a year and that the IMF, India, Western capitalism, and China will wink and give us a hand to climb out of the mire. Reports say that preliminary agreement on a loan has been reached and will be announced a day or two after these lines are written.
Or like Toselli’s serenade is it only a ‘golden dream’, an improbable ‘vision fair’ that a Colour Revolution may deliver rewards? Perhaps I was optimistic when I gushed in this column on April 24 “The people’s uprising is a colour-revolution, a vision fair, a celebration of happier days to come. The light beaming from the radiant eyes of the young is the first time in our two-thousand-year story, to quote a comment, that we have seen anything like it”. I hope my lyricism is not lopsided. Never has a people’s uprising in Lanka driven out an unjust ruler. Regime change so far has always been by armies brought from India ( Moggallana) or conspiracy between Court and foreign colonisers (Kotte and Kandyan Kingdoms).
Features
The challenge of being positive about SAARC
It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.
Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.
However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?
There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.
The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.
Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.
Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.
The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.
On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.
In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.
Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.
Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.
The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.
These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.
Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.
There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.
However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.
Features
OPA seminar examines Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and growth pathways
A seminar, “Sri Lanka’s Economic Crossroads: Navigating Recovery, Resilience and Growth” was recently held by the Organisation of Professional Associations of Sri Lanka (OPA) at the OPA Auditorium, bringing together economists, OPA members, and professionals from diverse fields for an insightful discussion on Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and future growth prospects.
The event was held under the patronage of Jayantha Gallehewa, President of the OPA, and was jointly organised by the National Issues Committee (NIC) and the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee of the OPA. The event reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to advancing professional excellence, fostering insightful intellectual engagement, facilitating interdisciplinary knowledge exchange and creating a constructive platform for informed dialogue on issues of national importance.
The panel of speakers comprised Dr. Harsha Aturupane, Lead Economist and Programme Leader for Human Development at the World Bank for Sri Lanka and the Maldives; Dr. Achinthya Koswatta, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Open University of Sri Lanka, and Anushan Kapilan, Lead Economist at Verité Research.
In his welcome address, the President of the OPA emphasised that Sri Lanka was at a critical juncture in its economic recovery journey where sustained reforms, effective implementation, and collective national commitment are essential to achieving long-term stability, resilience and inclusive growth. He noted that the country had experienced one of the most severe economic crises in its history with the economy contracting by 7.8 percent in 2022 and a further 11.5 percent in 2023, resulting in significant economic and social challenges.
Delivering his introductory remarks Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee, underscored the need to move beyond short-term economic stabilisation towards a comprehensive agenda of structural transformation. He observed that the economic crisis had revealed deep-rooted weaknesses within the economy, including persistent fiscal pressures, rising public debt, foreign exchange limitations, and insufficient diversification of the export base. He stressed that addressing these challenges through strategic reforms, institutional strengthening and long-term economic planning would be essential to establishing a more resilient and competitive economy.
While acknowledging recent positive developments, including improved inflation management, tourism recovery and signs of economic stabilisation, Wijeyaratne stressed the need to advance reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline, enhancing productivity, improving competitiveness, developing human capital and reinforcing governance and institutional effectiveness.
He further highlighted the important role of professionals, businesses, academia and other stakeholders in contributing to evidence-based dialogue and supporting Sri Lanka’s journey towards a resilient, inclusive and sustainable economic future.
Delivering the keynote presentation, Dr. Harsha Aturupane provided a comprehensive assessment of Sri Lanka’s economic prospects within the broader context of global economic transformation. He argued that Sri Lanka functioned as a small open economy whose performance is significantly influenced by developments in the global marketplace. External factors could not be controlled, and the country must strengthen its domestic capacity and resilience to respond effectively to international economic shifts, he noted.
Tracing the evolution of global economic systems, Dr. Aturupane highlighted the transition from ideological divisions between state-controlled and market-oriented economies towards increasingly pragmatic approaches focused on growth, competitiveness and development. He noted that Sri Lanka’s own economic journey reflects a similar evolution, with contemporary policy debates now centred on practical solutions for sustainable economic progress.
The presentation also examined the transformative impact of globalisation. Dr. Aturupane observed that global economic integration had enabled several East Asian economies, including South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to achieve remarkable economic advancement through export-led growth strategies. Sri Lanka similarly benefited from this process through the expansion of its apparel industry and increased integration into global value chains.
Turning to Sri Lanka’s recovery programme, Dr. Aturupane emphasised that the ongoing stabilisation process should be viewed as a national programme supported by the International Monetary Fund rather than solely as an IMF initiative. He observed that strong worker remittances, improved tourism earnings, enhanced government revenue mobilisation and prudent import management have contributed significantly to economic stabilisation.
Despite this progress, he cautioned that rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and meeting future debt obligations remain major challenges. He underscored the need to strengthen export performance, attract investment and generate sustainable foreign exchange earnings to ensure long-term economic resilience.
The discussion also focused on monetary stability, inflation management and exchange-rate policy. Dr. Aturupane stressed that maintaining price stability was fundamental to sustainable growth and household welfare, while sound monetary policy remains essential for preserving economic confidence.
Looking beyond stabilisation, he argued that Sri Lanka must transition towards a broader economic transformation agenda. Sustainable growth, he noted, will depend on expanding productive capacity through investment, technological advancement, innovation, skills development and structural reforms.
Among the key constraints identified was the high cost of energy, which continues to affect competitiveness and investment attractiveness. Dr. Aturupane emphasised the importance of improving efficiency and affordability within the energy sector to enhance Sri Lanka’s business environment.
He further highlighted the social dimensions of the crisis, noting the rise in poverty and economic vulnerability among households. Strengthening social protection systems and ensuring inclusive growth, he argued, must remain central components of the national development agenda.
Another critical challenge identified was Sri Lanka’s demographic transition. With an ageing population, outward migration and evolving labour market dynamics, the country is increasingly confronting labour shortages in several sectors. Dr. Aturupane suggested that greater automation, increased labour-force participation and strategic workforce planning would be necessary to address these emerging realities.
Concluding his presentation, he emphasised the need to improve governance, strengthen institutions, enhance competitiveness and create an enabling environment for private sector investment. Sri Lanka’s future success, he noted, will depend on its ability to move decisively beyond crisis management towards a development model founded on resilience, innovation, productivity and inclusive growth.
Dr. Achinthya Koswatta reiterated the importance of policy consistency and predictability in fostering investment and industrial development. She observed that frequent policy changes create uncertainty and discourage long-term investment decisions, whereas stable and coherent policy frameworks build confidence and support sustainable economic transformation.
Meanwhile, Anushan Kapilan highlighted the substantial progress achieved in restoring macroeconomic stability following the recent crisis. He noted significant improvements in fiscal performance, including increased government revenue, reduced reliance on debt financing and a historically low fiscal deficit.
He further observed that public debt levels are declining faster than anticipated, economic growth has exceeded expectations and inflation has been brought under control more rapidly than forecast. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the recovery remains uneven, particularly within the industrial sector and that many households have yet to experience a meaningful improvement in living standards.
The seminar was expertly coordinated by Eng. Chamil Edirimuni, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee, while the technical moderation and interactive discussion session were facilitated by Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee.
The event was attended by Tisara De Silva, President-Elect of the OPA, Eng. Ravi Rupasinghe, General Secretary, Past Presidents, members of the Executive Council, representatives of the General Forum and professionals representing a wide range of disciplines.
The seminar concluded with a vibrant exchange of ideas and perspectives, reaffirming the importance of evidence-based policy dialogue, institutional collaboration and collective national commitment in advancing Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and sustainable growth.
Features
Her roots run deep in Sri Lanka
Yes, for UK-based presenter and artiste Samantha Kay, home is where the heart – and the roots – are. And her roots run deep in Sri Lanka.
In an exclusive interview with The Island, Samantha says “I’m proud to be Sri Lankan. My mum is from Kandy and my dad is from Colombo, so Sri Lanka has always held a very special place in my heart.
“Whenever I visit Sri Lanka, I love spending time on the beautiful south coast, especially Hikkaduwa and Mirissa. It’s somewhere I always feel connected to my roots and completely at peace.”
Now living in Bournemouth, on the south coast of England, where, she says, she is lucky to be close to some of the UK’s most beautiful beaches, including the iconic Sandbanks, Samantha has built a career that refuses to fit into one box.
She is a radio presenter, podcast host, singer-songwriter, personal trainer and life coach.
“I genuinely love the variety because every role allows me to connect with people and, hopefully, make a positive difference in someone’s day.”
Of course, music has taken her far.
One of her proudest achievements, she says, was releasing a song with 90s music icon Angie Brown, which reached No. 9 in the UK Club Charts.
She also reached the final stages of The X Factor and performed at Wembley Stadium in front of thousands.
Beyond music, Samantha competed in bikini bodybuilding across the UK, winning several titles. “It taught me discipline, resilience and self-belief,” she recalls.
Today, her focus is on radio, podcasting and coaching women. Her podcast encourages people to live life on their own terms rather than feeling pressured to follow society’s expectations.
Says Samantha: “Whether someone is single, changing careers, travelling solo or simply trying to find their purpose, I want them to know that it’s never too late to create a life that feels authentic. If you’ve ever felt like you don’t fit into the box, maybe you were never meant to.”
Samantha Kay also spent a year in Dubai, performing at five-star hotels, including FIVE, and coaching at the iconic outdoor gym on Palm Jumeirah.
“I taught strength and conditioning classes, and hosted wellness retreats, combining my passion for music, health and inspiring others.”
However, with family matters calling her back to the UK, she made the choice to return. “Family comes first,” she says.
Looking ahead, Samantha plans to grow her radio and podcast work, release more music, and expand her wellness retreats.
“My biggest passion is helping people, especially women, build confidence and believe in themselves,” she says.
“Wherever my career takes me, I hope to continue inspiring others to live with courage, kindness and authenticity, while never forgetting my Sri Lankan roots.”
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