Opinion

Is Gotabaya Rajapaksa a victim of regime change?

Published

4 years ago

2022/04/21

Public protests that have erupted as a reaction to the economic and financial free fall of the country have now entered a dangerous phase with one person being shot dead in Rambukkana. If a protest goes on long enough, the odds are that someone will get killed and looters will arrive soon enough. All sorts of forces will begin to fish in troubled waters.

The government should have known that the West will invest to make regime change, given what happened elsewhere and in 2015. So, a good Army commander, even in retirement, should have anticipated that there will be those who will attempt to undermine him.

However, no outside agents are necessary when the Army man shoots himself on both feet. In the case of Sri Lanka, these two feet are energy supply and food supply. The energy supply depended crucially on the ability to buy fuel, using foreign exchange.

Gutting the Food supply

It is said that the President listened to “Gnanakka”, Nalin, Jayasumana, Ven. Ratana and some politicised medical doctors in banning fertilisers, sidelining the very experienced scientists of the Dept. of Agriculture. Gotabaya was going far beyond the ban on glyphosate, previously engineered by Ven. Ratana who was a part of the Yahapalanaya government.

As public servants, the scientists of the Agriculture Department couldn’t say much without getting sacked – those who dared got sacked. Chamal Rajapaksa (a supporter of traditional “govikama”), many leading monks, as well as a number of fringe scientists had supported going back to “traditional agriculture” and low-yielding “traditional” varieties of rice seeds. They opposed modern high-yielding hybrids or the use of agrochemicals. So, if the President erred, he had company.

As the scientists of the research Institutes like Maha Illuppallama, TRI, RRI, etc., are gagged, some of us wrote articles and even told the powers that be privately to not to shoot themselves in the foot, but to no avail. Scientists who spoke out were said to be in the pay of big agrochemical companies. Planter’s associations with decades of experience pleaded with the authorities, but to no avail.

Financial collapse

As for the financial collapse, already in 2010 (and before), Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange expenses and foreign debts exceeded foreign income. So, even without big calculations and economic projections you could see that the country will become bankrupt soon. What was going to happen soon became very soon with the coming of the pandemic.

But the pandemic took over two years to have its full impact and so an intelligent government could have taken steps to avoid the heavy impact, especially when the foreign credit agencies began to downgrade Sri Lanka’s credit worthiness.

However, leave aside financial prudence, even when faced with a deadly virus, Ministers and the Speaker of the Parliament sought the protection of occult powers and some went onto launching clay pots carrying charms in rivers.

When Gotabaya took over he did not state that the Treasury was empty and put in hard restructuring; instead he lowered taxes, gave new cars to MPs, and spent freely. There were budgets under MR and then Basil R. Their budgets should have recognized that Lanka’s foreign income was smaller than her foreign expenditure and spelt out remedial measures.

They did not want to admit that; instead a rapid path to prosperity (“Saubhagya”) was promised.

Like irresponsible teenagers given a credit card, the government began with a spending spree. They lowered taxes, began building new highways, cancelled already tendered power projects and other contracts, and opened new contracts using their own henchmen who could get new commissions. The country paid damages for breached contracts.

Conspiracy theories

Where did the breakaway in parliamentary power begin? It began with Weerawansa, Vasudeva, Gammanpila and others leaving the government and agitating against the power contract signed at midnight with a US company.

So, the rebels are not recognised as “puppets of the US”. While it is clear that the JVP had a significant hand in organizing protests in foreign capitals, and in synchronizing the slogan “Gota go home”, its role in local protests is much less certain.

The Western foes (“friends” to some) or any other foes or “friends” in the North or in the East will exploit the situation to the maximum; they will infiltrate the on-going protests and begin to fund them. But they cannot be named the agents who triggered it, even though such conspiracy theories would be very plausible to many people.

The first Rajapaksa government fell to regime change in 2015. If the second Rajapaksa govt. under Gotabaya, fell into the same trap then that is incompetence comparable to the Yahapalanaya louts who were fore-warned of the Easter attack but took no precautionary steps.

The “Sinhala Buddhists” (and many Sinhala Catholics disenchanted by the Easter bombing under Yahapalanaya) reposed their faith in Gotabaya. He has let them down badly, and allowed the enemies of the “Sinhala Buddhists” (be they the “ritual” types or the “meditation” types) to make a mockery of the best aspects of what individuals like Anagarika Dharmapala, Baron Jayatilleke or EW Adhikaram, Malalasekera and others argued for, since a century ago.

In any case some may say that the Gota government was closer to US control than even the Yahapalanaya. So, why would the West need to turn this government out, especially now that it has gone to Washington for an IMF bailout?

Gotabaya brought about the crisis himself, with the help of people like Venerable Ratana (who was the government’s authority on Agriculture), and the government strategists on finance.

During the war Gotabaya listened to his generals unlike Chandrika or Ranil, who was more interested in winning the Nobel peace prize. During his stint in urban planning Gotabaya listened to the architects. But perhaps as he aged, and with more power in his hands he became more superstitious and more irrational?

After he became President it is said that he listened to Gnanakka and others, just as Ranil and others would rush to the Tirupathi Kovil in India. It is said that when things began to go bad, Gnanakka asked the government to have a Sandalwood forest in front of the Parliament and said then all the “avaduru” (bad portends) would go away.

Apparently, the government followed Gnanakka’s instructions to appease the Gods. Clearly, the Gods want more!

Chandre Dharmawardana,

Canada.

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Opinion

A harsh reflection of Sri Lanka’s early-warning gap

Published

18 hours ago

2025/12/17

Sahan Weerasooriya

Floods caused by Cyclone Ditwah

Cyclone Ditwah:

Cyclone Ditwah, which swept across Sri Lanka at the end of November, caused massive damage to the country, the extent of which need not be mentioned here, as all are aware of it by now. Heated arguments went on among many parties with regard to how this destruction could have been mitigated and who should take responsibility. Although there may have been shortcomings in several aspects of how we responded to Ditwah, this article highlights a critical area that urgently requires attention if we are to protect ourselves from similar hazards in the future.

As is common in many situations, it has once again showcased a concerning weakness in the country’s disaster-management cycle, the gap between issuing early warnings and the expected public response. The Meteorological Department, the Irrigation Department, the National Building Research Organization, and other authorities issued continuous warnings to evacuate well in advance of imminent threats of flooding, landslides, and water hazards. However, the level of preparedness and community reaction fell short, leading to far greater personal property damage, including loss of a few hundred lives.

Sri Lanka is not unfamiliar with natural disasters. One of the most devastating disasters in our history could be considered the 2004 Tsunami event, which resulted in over 35,000 deaths and over $1 billion in property damage in the coastal belt. After the event, the concepts of disaster management were introduced to the country, which we have been adhering to since then. Again in 2016, the country faced massive river flooding, especially in western and southern regions, and until recently experienced repeated floods and landslides due to rains caused by atmospheric disturbances, though less in scale. Each of these events paved the way for relevant authorities to discuss and take appropriate measures on institutional readiness, infrastructure resilience, and public awareness. Yet, Cyclone Ditwah has demonstrated that despite improvements in forecasting and communication, well supported by technological advancements, the translation of warnings into action remains critically weak.

The success of early-warning systems depends on how quickly and effectively the public and relevant institutions respond. In the case of Ditwah, the Department of Meteorology issued warnings several days beforehand, supported by regional cyclone forecasting of neighbouring countries. Other organisations previously mentioned circulated advisories with regard to expected flood risk and possible landslide threats on television, radio, and social media, with continuous updates. All the flood warnings were more than accurate, as low-lying areas were affected by floods with anticipated heights and times. Landslide risks, too, were well-informed for many areas on a larger spatial scale, presumably due to the practical difficulties of identifying such areas on a minor scale, given that micro-topography in hill country is susceptible to localised failures. Hence, the technical side of the early-warning system worked as it should have. However, it is pathetic that the response from the public did not align with the risk communicated in most areas.

In many affected areas, people may have underestimated the severity of the hazard based on their past experiences. In a country where weather hazards are common, some may have treated the warnings as routine messages they hear day by day. As all the warnings do not end up in severe outcomes, some may have disregarded them as futile. In the meantime, there can be yet another segment of the population that did not have adequate knowledge and guidance on what specific actions to take after receiving a warning. This could especially happen if the responsible authorities lack necessary preparedness plans. Whatever the case may be, lapses in response to early warnings magnified the cyclone’s impact.

Enforcing preventive actions by authorities has certain limitations. In some areas, even the police struggled to move people from vulnerable areas owing to community resistance. This could be partly due to a lack of temporary accommodation prepared in advance. In some cases, communities were reluctant to relocate due to concerns over safety, privacy, and the status quo. However, it should be noted that people living in low-lying areas of the Kelani River and Attanagalu Oya had ample time to evacuate with their valuable belongings.

Hazard warnings are technical outputs of various models. For them to be effective, the public must understand them, trust them, and take appropriate action as instructed. This requires continuous community engagement, education, and preparedness training. Sri Lanka must therefore take more actions on community-level disaster preparedness programs. A culture of preparedness is the need of the day, and schools, religious institutions, and community-based organisations can play an important role in making it a reality. Risk communication must be further simplified so that people can easily understand what they should do at different alert levels.

Cyclone Ditwah has left, giving us a strong message. Even an accurate weather forecast and associated hazard warnings cannot save lives or property unless the public responds appropriately. As it is beyond doubt that climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, people in Sri Lanka have to consider preparedness as a routine part of life and respond to warnings promptly to mitigate damage from future disasters.

(The writer is a chartered Civil Engineer)

by Eng. Thushara Dissanayake

Opinion

Feeling sad and blue?

Published

2 days ago

2025/12/16

Sahan Weerasooriya

Rowan Atkinson

Here is what you can do!

Comedy and the ability to have a good laugh are what keep us sane. The good news to announce is that there are many British and American comedy shows posted up and available on the internet.

They will bring a few hours of welcome relief from our present doldrums.

Firstly, and in a class of its own, are the many Benny Hill shows. Benny is a British comedian who comes from a circus family, and was brought up in an atmosphere of circus clowning. Each show is carefully polished and rehearsed to get the comedy across and understood successfully. These clips have the most beautiful stage props and settings with suitable, amusing costumes. This is really good comedy for the mature, older viewer.

Benny Hill has produced shows that are “Master-Class” in quality adult entertainment. All his shows are good.

Then comes the “Not the Nine o’clock news” with Rowan Atkinson and his comedy team producing good entertainment suitable for all.

And then comes the “Two Ronnies” – Ronnie Barker and Ronnie Corbett, with their dry sense of humour and wit. Search and you will find other uplifting shows such as Dave Allen, with his monologues and humour.

All these shows have been broadcast in Britain over the last 50 years and are well worth viewing on the Internet.

Similarly, in The USA of America. There are some really great entertainment shows. And never forget Fats Waller in the film “Stormy Weather,” where he was the pianist in the unforgettable, epic, comedy song “Ain’t Misbehavin”. And then there is “Bewitched” with young and glamorous Samantha Stevens and her mother, Endora who can perform magic. It is amazing entertainment! This show, although from the 1970s was a milestone in US light entertainment, along with many more.

And do not overlook Charlie Chaplin and Laurel and Hardy, and all the Disney films. Donald Duck gives us a great wealth of simple comedy.

The US offers you a mountain of comedy and good humour on Youtube. All these shows await you, just by accessing the Internet! The internet channel, ‘You tube’ itself, comes from America! The Americans reach out to you with good, happy things right into your own living room!

Those few people with the ability to understand English have the key to a great- great storehouse of uplifting humour and entertainment. They are rich indeed!

Priyantha Hettige

Opinion

There is much to learn

Published

2 days ago

2025/12/16

Sahan Weerasooriya

After the recent disaster, a great deal of information has been circulating on WhatsApp and YouTube regarding our reservoirs, highways, etc.

In many of these discussions, people have analysed what went wrong and how the damage could have been prevented. My question is this: why do all these knowledgeable voices emerge only after disaster strikes? One simple reason may be that our self-proclaimed, all-knowing governing messiahs refuse to listen to anyone outside their circles. It is never too late to learn, but has any government decision-maker read or listened to these suggestions?

When the whole world is offering help to overcome this tragedy, has the government even considered seeking modern forecasting equipment and the essential resources currently not available to our armed forces, police, and disaster-management centres?

B Perera