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Insights into Sri Lanka’s next presidential election and challenges faced by NPP

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NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake addressing a political rally.(File photo)

Navigating political landscape:

By Prof. Amarasiri de Silva

Sri Lanka’s next presidential election, scheduled between September and October 2024, has heightened the political atmosphere with anticipation. According to the Constitution of Sri Lanka, voters can elect a president for a five-year term. The election process involves limited ranked voting, allowing voters to express up to three ranked preferences for the president. If no candidate receives over 50% of valid votes on the first count, all candidates except the top two are eliminated. The second and third preferences of the eliminated candidates are then distributed until one of the remaining two candidates secures an outright majority. While this system has seen limited use in practice, citizens often choose to mark only one candidate, with many unaware that multiple candidates can be ranked.

In the current political landscape of Sri Lanka, the primary contenders are the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), a political alliance led by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and the Jathika Jana Balavegaya, the National People’s Power (NPP), led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPFA) is emerging with limited popularity. There are ongoing negotiations regarding the incumbent president, Ranil Wickremasinghe, who is expected to contest as a joint UNP and SLPFA candidate. The nation eagerly awaits the outcome of this significant political event.

As highlighted by the news media, NPP and SJB have attracted massive crowds to their election meetings, with significant attention focused on the NPP. In the 2019 presidential election, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPFA) secured 52.25% of the votes, while the United National Party (UNP) gained 41.99% support. The NPP, on the other hand, received 3.16% of the votes.

Recent polls on election preferences in Sri Lanka reveal a dynamic and evolving political landscape. According to opinion polls by the National Health Policy Institute, Sri Lanka’s NPP, led by AK Dissanayake, has shown steady progress, garnering 51% of the votes. The upcoming presidential election promises to be a closely watched and contested event, reflecting the changing dynamics of public opinion.

The question delves into a fascinating aspect of social science research and the potential impact of public opinion polls on the opinions they aim to measure. Let’s break down the query:

“The question is whether the public opinion polls, by measuring opinion, affect the opinion they measure?” This inquiry essentially explores the concept of reflexivity in social research. Reflexivity refers to the idea that the act of measuring or observing a phenomenon can, in turn, influence or change that phenomenon. In the context of public opinion polls, the question is whether the mere act of measuring people’s opinions can alter those opinions.

“The question of whether, and how much, an instrument influences what it is designed to measure is analytically distinct from the question of its accuracy.” This statement emphasises the need to distinguish between two key aspects: the impact an instrument (in this case, public opinion polls) has on what it aims to measure and the accuracy of the measurements. Analysing the influence of the instrument on the measured opinions is a separate consideration from evaluating how accurately it captures those opinions.

“Any reading, accurate or not, of the public mind will enter into.” This part suggests that regardless of whether the public opinion polls provide accurate or inaccurate readings, the results will still have an impact. The act of measuring public opinion, even if flawed, becomes part of the broader discourse, and can influence various aspects of society.

In summary, the question raises issues related to reflexivity in social research, urging a closer examination of how the measurement process itself may shape the opinions being measured. It also highlights the distinction between the instrument’s influence and its accuracy, emphasising that even imperfect measurements can have significant consequences in shaping public discourse.

The current technological landscape, characterised by smartphones and internet connectivity, allows for the instantaneous evaluation of public responses to political events. This information can be rapidly disseminated through mass media channels. However, in Sri Lanka, there seems to be a noticeable absence of swift information dissemination that significantly influences polling behaviour.

Sri Lanka’s election history has demonstrated the potential for momentous changes in public opinion, particularly in the final moments leading up to the elections. The 2019 elections witnessed the National People’s Power (NPP) drawing tremendous crowds to rallies in support of Anura Dissanayake. However, despite the massive support, Mr. Dissanayake ultimately secured only 3.16% of the votes.

This article explores the pivotal factors that may have a last-minute influence on the voting preferences of individuals who endorse the NPP and actively participate in its gatherings. Grasping the dynamics that shape voters’ decisions in the concluding stages of an election is essential for conducting a thorough analysis of the political terrain and anticipating possible changes in public sentiment.

Voters in their 40s, 50s, and beyond vividly recollect the events of 1987 and 1971 led by the JVP. Despite the declining trend in population growth, the overall population has surged from 7,945,977 in 1950 to 21,949,268 in 2023—an impressive general population increase of approximately 176.52% from 1950 to 2023. About 50% of the population could recall the 1971 and 1987 incidents, which may act as deterrents to last-minute voting behaviour, even though people attend NPP political rallies in large numbers.

In numerous villages, about three fell victim to the violence of the JVP during the tumultuous period of 1987. I have firsthand knowledge of a tragic incident in my village in Batapola, where three individuals lost their lives for supporting the UNP. In my neighbourhood, a harrowing episode unfolded as a middle-aged mechanic was forcibly taken from his home at night—he cowered under the bed in fear—and was apprehended, ostensibly for questioning related to specific incidents. A few minutes later, the household residents and the surrounding area were startled by the sound of a gunshot. He was found lifeless, bound to a Kitul tree. The mechanic, a father of two, left behind a wife without employment or any other source of income. The children, unable to pursue their education, found themselves compelled to engage in underage wage work to support their mother and the family.

The village, being closely knit, remembers this incident and asserts that they would never vote for the NPP, the successor of the JVP. Similar incidents have occurred in many villages. My estimate is that there would be 50,000 to 75,000 such incidents spread across the villages and urban areas of Sri Lanka. I presume that the NPP must be cognizant of these incidents, and it’s plausible that they have created a database to document such occurrences.

The burning of the Meetiyagoda Weaving Mills in 1971 during the insurrection had a significant impact on the local community in Batapola and Meetiyagoda. The weaving mill, which employed nearly 5000 people in the surrounding villages, was an essential source of livelihood for many. The memory of this devastating event seems to have left a lasting impact on the residents, and there is a sense of fear among them regarding the NPP coming to power. The concern is that it may lead to similar incidents or other actions that could negatively affect the community.

To address these fears and gain the support of the people, the NPP, if aspiring to come to power, should consider developing a comprehensive strategy. This strategy should focus on addressing the community’s specific concerns, providing assurances, and outlining plans for alleviating fears of the people.

The NPP claims to have 39 million rupees in their funds, which they are considering using for the upcoming election. An impactful and compassionate approach to utilise a portion of these funds would be to allocate financial assistance to the families whose breadwinners fell victim to the violence inflicted by the JVP. This gesture could be a significant source of comfort to these affected families, potentially alleviating their fears and fostering support for the NPP.

Taking proactive steps to visit the homes of these families, the regional leaders of the NPP should express their solidarity and convey heartfelt support. They must empathise with the pain and loss experienced by these families, emphasising that the decision to target and harm their loved ones was a misguided policy. Furthermore, the leaders should make it clear that the present stance of the NPP denounces such harmful policies and advocates for a more inclusive and compassionate approach.

By demonstrating genuine concern and taking tangible actions, the NPP can provide financial relief and build a stronger connection with the affected communities. This outreach effort has the potential to contribute to a positive perception of the party among the families who have suffered, creating a pathway for trust and potential support in the upcoming election.

Additionally, the fear expressed by my friend in Australia regarding the NPP potentially acquiring empty houses and distributing them to homeless people highlights the need for clear communication and transparency from the NPP. Assuring property owners that their assets will be protected and outlining the party’s housing policies can help alleviate such concerns. Effective communication, community engagement, and a well-thought-out strategy are crucial for any political party seeking to address the people’s fears and gain their trust and support.

I firmly believe that the citizens of Sri Lanka will exercise their voting rights with the intention of supporting candidates who exhibit qualities of integrity and a commitment to ethical conduct. The electorate is likely to favour individuals who are not tainted by corruption and pledge to bring about positive outcomes and prosperity for the population.

In this crucial decision-making process, voters are likely to prioritise candidates who demonstrate a genuine desire to address the needs and concerns of the people. This could include a focus on economic development, social welfare, and the nation’s overall well-being.

The desire for leaders who prioritise the country’s best interests over personal gain is a common sentiment among the electorate. The expectation is that elected representatives will work towards fostering a climate of transparency, accountability, and responsible governance.

As the electoral process unfolds, it becomes a platform for the expression of the people’s collective will, reflecting their aspirations for a brighter and more prosperous future. The emphasis on non-corrupt, positive, and outcome-driven leadership underscores the importance of building a nation that thrives on justice, fairness, and progress principles.



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Opinion

Luck knocks at your door every day

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Some people seem to have been born lucky. Whatever they lay their hands on ends in success. They pass competitive examinations, find jobs and marry ideal partners. There are others who seem to be unlucky all the time. They fail examinations and remain unemployed. They also find it difficult to find their life partners. Nobody knows how this happens. However, serendipity is not a game of chance. Experts have identified certain habits that can set you all up for good fortune.

Jane (not her real name) after getting through her G.C.E. (Advanced Level) examination tried to find a job for several years. All her attempts ended in vain. Then she tried various other avenues to find her niche in life. One day she happened to attend a friend’s wedding at a five-star hotel. She observed how food had been laid out in a professional manner. Something clicked in her mind. “Can’t I become a chef?”

Thereafter she desperately tried to find a place to follow a course in culinary art. The course fees were very high and her parents could not afford them. One day, quite by chance, she met a chef working in a big hotel. She became friendly with him and expressed her desire to become a chef. The chef listened to her attentively and asked her to join his hotel as a kitchen helper. She accepted the offer and worked as a kitchen helper for a few years. Her enthusiasm and dedication to her duties impressed the management. She was appointed as a Commis Chef.

Kitchen brigade

She was happy to work as a junior, entry-level cook in a professional kitchen. She had to support senior chefs by performing basic food preparations, maintaining station cleanliness, organising stock and learning core culinary techniques. Although she had not followed any professional courses, Jane found herself on her way up the kitchen brigade often rotating through different sections to gain broad experience. After working there for a few years, she managed to join a leading tourist hotel in the Maldives. Her quest for excellence is not yet over. Jane is now planning to join a leading tourist hotel in Australia.

Some people say that kismet led Jane in her quest for becoming a chef. However, her openness to life’s quirky possibilities put her in the right place at the right time. Her success shows that luck is not something mysterious. To a very large extent, you are responsible for much of the good fortune that you encounter. This view has been confirmed by Richard Wiseman, a professor of psychology and the author of ‘The luck Factor.’

It is a fascinating exercise to delve into traits that separate fortunate people from the self-proclaimed unlucky souls. If you wish to succeed in life, always expect good things to happen. When you do so, the scales of serendipity tilt in your favour. In Wiseman’s words, “Their expectations become self-fulfilling prophecies.” In a study at New York University it was found that students who firmly believed that they would pass the final examination with flying colours significantly had excellent results.

Try your luck

The fact of self-assurance will motivate you to work hard. Never feel that you are unlucky. Some people complain that they never win lottery prizes and stop buying raffle tickets. Winning a prize from a raffle ticket happens by chance. If you do not buy them, you will never win a prize. Therefore, always try your luck with positive feelings.

If you look around, you will see that lucky people are surrounded by a lot of friends and acquaintances. Lucky people talk to lots of people and attract their attention and goodwill. This will create a network of like-minded people. Colleen Seifert, a cognitive scientist at the University of Michigan, advises people to get out of the everyday rut. Most people who do routine work find themselves in a rut. They should try to get out of it and do something different and profitable. One way is to follow a course of studies to hone your skills. Another method is to join an English-speaking club or Toastmasters Club. You can also join a library and start reading books on various subjects. When you do so, you will have a chance to encounter influential people. Such a meeting will be a turning point in your life.

Always think that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. In many bad situations there will be at least one good event. Learn how to embrace the unpredictable and engineer the unexpected. If you think you are a lucky person, you will transform a stumbling block into a positive event. Nobody can win any battle without making mistakes. Depend on your sixth sense or instinct before doing something important. Leaving a permanent and pensionable job may pose a big risk. However, if you do not take such a risk, you will not succeed in life. Many ordinary government employees have quit their jobs to become accountants, lawyers, judges and architects.

Sense of responsibility

Most successful people have a deep sense of responsibility for their thoughts and actions. It means you have to keep your word and be faithful to your family and self. Believe in what you do and work hard to achieve your goal. Such an attitude will set your own standards. In the meantime, stop comparing yourself with others who have succeeded in their chosen fields of activity. The wartime British Prime Minister Winston Churchill exemplified integrity and respect in the face of opposition. During his final years as the prime minister he attended an official function. Some people started whispering that he should step down as he was getting senile. When the ceremony was over, Churchill turned to the men who were whispering and said, “Gentlemen, they also say he is deaf!”

If you wish to win, take time to nurture others’ dreams. A wise man said, “If you want one year’s prosperity, grow grain. But if you want ten years’ prosperity, grow men and women.” On your way to success you cannot simply ignore others. Provide others with nutrients of gratitude and encouragement. When people around you succeed, you should feel happy.

Human life is full of ups and downs, disappointments and missed opportunities. The pages of history are full of heroic stories of undaunted men and women who had triumphed over disabilities and adversities. Draw inspiration from their victorious spirit. We live in a highly competitive and goal-oriented world. Everybody is seeking instant success. Get involved in something bigger than yourself. Work towards your goal in a spirit of excellence.

The Chinese call luck an opportunity and they say it knocks every day at your door. Some people hear it, but others do not. It is not enough to hear the opportunity to knock at your door. You must let it in, greet it and make friends with it to work together. All the fruits of success will be yours then.

karunaratners@gmail.com

By R. S. Karunaratne

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Opinion

Conference “Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority Bill: Neither Here, Nor There”

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January 21 | Olympus Auditorium, Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS)

The National Collective of Community Savings and Credit Services Providers organised the conference “Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority Bill: Neither Here, Nor There” on January 21 at the Olympus Auditorium, Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS), BMICH, to foreground the community savings and credit services as an alternative credit practice to moneylending and microfinance. While underscoring the uniqueness of community credit practices, grounded in collective rights, solidarity, mutual aid, the non-hierarchical nature of organising and long years of practice, community credit providers opposed the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-Treasury-CBSL attempt to subsume the community credit model under moneylending and microfinance in the proposed Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority Bill. Over 200 community credit practitioners from more than 50 community organisations from Mannar, Kilinochchi, Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Rathnapura, and Hambanthota had gathered at the conference.

M. K. Jayathissa, a farmer leader from Hingurakgoda, Polonnaruwa, explained the microfinance crisis as resulting from the microfinancialisation of rural credit and the targeting of low-income women. He recalled his role in the farmers’ struggle against debt during the 1990s. Jayathissa linked the microfinance crisis among women and the farmers’ debt crisis to a wider crisis in food production.

Renuka Bhadrakanthi, chairperson of the Ekabaddha Praja Sanwardhana Kantha Maha Sangamaya, Weligepola, shared her three decades of experience as a community practitioner. She showed how the community credit framework helped women build assets and wealth through small savings. Unlike market-based initiatives such as microfinance and moneylending, community-controlled credit systems empowered women both with agency and material capabilities. Renuka also noted the regional diversity in organisational frameworks and credit purposes. She stressed the need for vigilance and action now, as globalisation and neoliberalism drive economic reforms aimed at capturing community wealth and making people dependent on the market.

Rajeswary Sritharan from Yuhashakthi, Mullaitivu, brought in experiences from war-torn societies. Yuhashakthi and Mahashakthi networks, operating in the Northern and Eastern provinces and comprising more than 10,000 women members, were created during the civil war to support women’s ability to control the household economy. These two networks have proven resilience against war-related dispossession and loss while also strengthening women. Rajeswary contended that self-help community credit groups are informal and unregulated, revealing that societies are governed by a collective ethos, community audits, and democratic decision-making, ensuring transparency and accountability. She pointed out that community groups do not have a history of bringing their members before the police or courts when they fail to service their debts, unlike microfinance companies. She also raised the significance of community groups such as Yuhashakthi and Mahashakthi as first responders in times of crisis, even as recently as with Ditwah, intervening and assisting affected communities much before the government could.

Suneth Aruna Kumara, representing Vimukthi Gami Gowi Kantha Samithiya, Hingurakgoda, Polonnaruwa and also speaking on behalf of the microfinance-affected women, highlighted the creative space that collective forms of association have opened up for microfinance victims. “People who were hiding, afraid of debt collectors, are trying to rebuild their lives autonomously,” he said. In this journey, women are rethinking the meaning of credit, whether it is possible to create credit mechanisms that do not rely on interest income, and imaginative ways of decommodifying community relations. Suneth emphasised that women’s initiatives are emerging from their lived experiences as debtors, exploited by predatory interest rates and violent recovery practices. As a victim himself, Suneth criticised the proposed regulatory Bill for failing to adequately safeguard microfinance and credit consumers by providing legally binding safeguards. According to Suneth, the proposed Bill does not guarantee that the microfinance crisis will not recur.

Another highlight of the conference was the sharing of experiences by Malaihaya women, presented by Letchumanan Kamaleswary from the Centre for Equality and Justice. Kamaleswary described debt as ever-present in the Malaiyaha community. It forced migration from South India and kept people captive as plantation labour for over 200 years. Although the plantation management restricts all community associations within the plantations, microfinance companies can enter and operate freely. Debt is so severe that most Malaiyaha women work past their retirement age.

Pubudu Manohara, from the Rural Development Foundation in Hambanthota, traced the history of community credit projects to various state poverty alleviation programmes since 1977. These projects, affiliated with governments and supported by international groups such as the World Bank and UNDP, have survived many national and local crises. Over time, however, both the government and international organisations like the ADB have become wary of people’s ability to save. “They are afraid of our ability to create community funds,” he said.

The discussion emphasised that mobilising community groups and local political leaders is essential to oppose the Bill in its current form. Concerns arose about the negative impact of heavy regulations on community organisations and women’s resilience. “Domestic violence is rooted in economic violence. The destruction of community organisations will have a direct effect on local development and local economic activities. That will also burden the government,” said a Yuhashakthi representative from Mullathivu.

Community organisers urged the government to consult directly with them when developing regulations, emphasising that new rules should protect and strengthen community-based initiatives rather than respond to external pressures. They argued that the ADB, having promoted commercialisation of microfinance and contributed to the resulting crisis, lacks the legal and ethical standing to advocate for regulatory frameworks. Instead of receiving directives from the International Financial Institutions (IFIs), the government should converse with the grassroots communities, devising homegrown developmental solutions to regenerate local economies, empower the most vulnerable and build community wealth, the community organisers stressed.

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Opinion

A puppet show?

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After jog for the camera, wearing shorts in Jaffna, thanks to the freedom gained by the country being liberated from the clutches of the Tigers by the valiant efforts led by Mahinda Rajapaksa, President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, said: “Some come past Sri Maha Bodhi and other Buddhist temples all the way to Jaffna to observe Sil, not to spread compassion but hatred.” When the need of the hour is reconciliation what an outrageous statement that was, to be made by the head of state! Will he say that the people of the North and the East bypass many Kovils straddling the area and come to Kataragama to spread hate? Probably not! His claim has become a hot topic of conversation.

Having lost a majority of the votes garnered from the North at the presidential and parliamentary elections, to the Tamil nationalist parties at the local government elections, President Dissanayake’s claim may well have been a pitiful attempt to recover lost ground in the North. But at what cost?

It all started with AKD’s refusal to refer to those brave service personnel who saved the unity and the integrity of the country as Rana Viruwo. Interestingly, the most devastating rebuke for this came from a Tamil MP, who is an avowed admirer of Prabhakaran, stating in Parliament that a Sinhala Rana Viruwa saved his life when he was about to be washed off in the flood waters resulting from Cyclone Ditwah. He teased the government by asking in ‘raw’ Sinhala Ei umbalata lejjada unta Rana Viruwo kiyanna? (Are you shy to call them war heroes?)

In addition to slinging mud at MR and harassing service personnel, there is no doubt whatsoever that AKD’s government is trying to harass any Tamil politicians who helped eradicate the Tigers. This fact is borne out by the treatment meted out to Douglas Devananda. Shamindra Ferdinando has explained this in his article, “EPDP’s Devananda and missing weapons supplied by Army” (The Island, 7 January).

NPP ministers publicly insult Buddhist monks, but whenever they are in trouble, they rush to Kandy to meet the Maha Nayakas, the latest being Harini’s visit. Instead of admitting the mistake and trying to make amends, the government went on, until it realised the futility in trying to justify the ‘Buddy’ episode. Excuses given by Harini to the Maha Nayakas, to say the least, were laughable. She had the audacity to say that though the questionable web link was printed in the textbook there were no instructions to click on it! She may continue as Prime Minister but can anyone who does not know what to do with a link or who is trying to encourage ten-year-olds to have e-buddies when the rest of the world is heading towards banning 16-year-olds from social media, continue to be the Minister of Education?

Number of MOUs/pacts signed with India, including defence, have not yet been disclosed even to Parliament. The Cabinet Spokesman once stated that the contents of those MOUs/pacts could not be divulged without the consent of India. Interestingly, we have had very frequent visits from VVIP politicians and top government officials from India, some at very short notice. One of them referred to these as ‘usual’ ones! However, what is unusual is that a party that shed a lot of blood of Sri Lankans for even selling ‘Bombay’ onions, is now in government and seems under Indian command. Perhaps, its transformation occurred when India sponsored a visit by AKD in early 2024, which helped him secure the presidency. Among the NPP’s election pledges, the most touted one was to reveal the mastermind behind the Easter Sunday attacks. It has been alleged in some quarters that India was behind the attacks. The NPP government’s silence about this speaks volumes!

It has transpired recently that it was Indian High Commissioner Gopal Baglay who pressured Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena in July 2022 to take over the presidency after the elected President was toppled by protesters, but many believe that it was a joint effort by the Indian HC and the ‘Viceroy’ who just left, after an overstay! It is an illegal act as pointed out in the editorial “Conspiracy to subvert constitutional order” (The Island, 22 January) and may be investigated by a future government, if elections are not postponed forever!

We seem to be watching a puppet show where many puppeteers outside are pulling the strings! Are we paying the price for electing a bunch of inexperienced politicians?

By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana ✍️

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