Opinion
Insights into Sri Lanka’s next presidential election and challenges faced by NPP
Navigating political landscape:
By Prof. Amarasiri de Silva
Sri Lanka’s next presidential election, scheduled between September and October 2024, has heightened the political atmosphere with anticipation. According to the Constitution of Sri Lanka, voters can elect a president for a five-year term. The election process involves limited ranked voting, allowing voters to express up to three ranked preferences for the president. If no candidate receives over 50% of valid votes on the first count, all candidates except the top two are eliminated. The second and third preferences of the eliminated candidates are then distributed until one of the remaining two candidates secures an outright majority. While this system has seen limited use in practice, citizens often choose to mark only one candidate, with many unaware that multiple candidates can be ranked.
In the current political landscape of Sri Lanka, the primary contenders are the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), a political alliance led by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and the Jathika Jana Balavegaya, the National People’s Power (NPP), led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPFA) is emerging with limited popularity. There are ongoing negotiations regarding the incumbent president, Ranil Wickremasinghe, who is expected to contest as a joint UNP and SLPFA candidate. The nation eagerly awaits the outcome of this significant political event.
As highlighted by the news media, NPP and SJB have attracted massive crowds to their election meetings, with significant attention focused on the NPP. In the 2019 presidential election, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPFA) secured 52.25% of the votes, while the United National Party (UNP) gained 41.99% support. The NPP, on the other hand, received 3.16% of the votes.
Recent polls on election preferences in Sri Lanka reveal a dynamic and evolving political landscape. According to opinion polls by the National Health Policy Institute, Sri Lanka’s NPP, led by AK Dissanayake, has shown steady progress, garnering 51% of the votes. The upcoming presidential election promises to be a closely watched and contested event, reflecting the changing dynamics of public opinion.
The question delves into a fascinating aspect of social science research and the potential impact of public opinion polls on the opinions they aim to measure. Let’s break down the query:
“The question is whether the public opinion polls, by measuring opinion, affect the opinion they measure?” This inquiry essentially explores the concept of reflexivity in social research. Reflexivity refers to the idea that the act of measuring or observing a phenomenon can, in turn, influence or change that phenomenon. In the context of public opinion polls, the question is whether the mere act of measuring people’s opinions can alter those opinions.
“The question of whether, and how much, an instrument influences what it is designed to measure is analytically distinct from the question of its accuracy.” This statement emphasises the need to distinguish between two key aspects: the impact an instrument (in this case, public opinion polls) has on what it aims to measure and the accuracy of the measurements. Analysing the influence of the instrument on the measured opinions is a separate consideration from evaluating how accurately it captures those opinions.
“Any reading, accurate or not, of the public mind will enter into.” This part suggests that regardless of whether the public opinion polls provide accurate or inaccurate readings, the results will still have an impact. The act of measuring public opinion, even if flawed, becomes part of the broader discourse, and can influence various aspects of society.
In summary, the question raises issues related to reflexivity in social research, urging a closer examination of how the measurement process itself may shape the opinions being measured. It also highlights the distinction between the instrument’s influence and its accuracy, emphasising that even imperfect measurements can have significant consequences in shaping public discourse.
The current technological landscape, characterised by smartphones and internet connectivity, allows for the instantaneous evaluation of public responses to political events. This information can be rapidly disseminated through mass media channels. However, in Sri Lanka, there seems to be a noticeable absence of swift information dissemination that significantly influences polling behaviour.
Sri Lanka’s election history has demonstrated the potential for momentous changes in public opinion, particularly in the final moments leading up to the elections. The 2019 elections witnessed the National People’s Power (NPP) drawing tremendous crowds to rallies in support of Anura Dissanayake. However, despite the massive support, Mr. Dissanayake ultimately secured only 3.16% of the votes.
This article explores the pivotal factors that may have a last-minute influence on the voting preferences of individuals who endorse the NPP and actively participate in its gatherings. Grasping the dynamics that shape voters’ decisions in the concluding stages of an election is essential for conducting a thorough analysis of the political terrain and anticipating possible changes in public sentiment.
Voters in their 40s, 50s, and beyond vividly recollect the events of 1987 and 1971 led by the JVP. Despite the declining trend in population growth, the overall population has surged from 7,945,977 in 1950 to 21,949,268 in 2023—an impressive general population increase of approximately 176.52% from 1950 to 2023. About 50% of the population could recall the 1971 and 1987 incidents, which may act as deterrents to last-minute voting behaviour, even though people attend NPP political rallies in large numbers.
In numerous villages, about three fell victim to the violence of the JVP during the tumultuous period of 1987. I have firsthand knowledge of a tragic incident in my village in Batapola, where three individuals lost their lives for supporting the UNP. In my neighbourhood, a harrowing episode unfolded as a middle-aged mechanic was forcibly taken from his home at night—he cowered under the bed in fear—and was apprehended, ostensibly for questioning related to specific incidents. A few minutes later, the household residents and the surrounding area were startled by the sound of a gunshot. He was found lifeless, bound to a Kitul tree. The mechanic, a father of two, left behind a wife without employment or any other source of income. The children, unable to pursue their education, found themselves compelled to engage in underage wage work to support their mother and the family.
The village, being closely knit, remembers this incident and asserts that they would never vote for the NPP, the successor of the JVP. Similar incidents have occurred in many villages. My estimate is that there would be 50,000 to 75,000 such incidents spread across the villages and urban areas of Sri Lanka. I presume that the NPP must be cognizant of these incidents, and it’s plausible that they have created a database to document such occurrences.
The burning of the Meetiyagoda Weaving Mills in 1971 during the insurrection had a significant impact on the local community in Batapola and Meetiyagoda. The weaving mill, which employed nearly 5000 people in the surrounding villages, was an essential source of livelihood for many. The memory of this devastating event seems to have left a lasting impact on the residents, and there is a sense of fear among them regarding the NPP coming to power. The concern is that it may lead to similar incidents or other actions that could negatively affect the community.
To address these fears and gain the support of the people, the NPP, if aspiring to come to power, should consider developing a comprehensive strategy. This strategy should focus on addressing the community’s specific concerns, providing assurances, and outlining plans for alleviating fears of the people.
The NPP claims to have 39 million rupees in their funds, which they are considering using for the upcoming election. An impactful and compassionate approach to utilise a portion of these funds would be to allocate financial assistance to the families whose breadwinners fell victim to the violence inflicted by the JVP. This gesture could be a significant source of comfort to these affected families, potentially alleviating their fears and fostering support for the NPP.
Taking proactive steps to visit the homes of these families, the regional leaders of the NPP should express their solidarity and convey heartfelt support. They must empathise with the pain and loss experienced by these families, emphasising that the decision to target and harm their loved ones was a misguided policy. Furthermore, the leaders should make it clear that the present stance of the NPP denounces such harmful policies and advocates for a more inclusive and compassionate approach.
By demonstrating genuine concern and taking tangible actions, the NPP can provide financial relief and build a stronger connection with the affected communities. This outreach effort has the potential to contribute to a positive perception of the party among the families who have suffered, creating a pathway for trust and potential support in the upcoming election.
Additionally, the fear expressed by my friend in Australia regarding the NPP potentially acquiring empty houses and distributing them to homeless people highlights the need for clear communication and transparency from the NPP. Assuring property owners that their assets will be protected and outlining the party’s housing policies can help alleviate such concerns. Effective communication, community engagement, and a well-thought-out strategy are crucial for any political party seeking to address the people’s fears and gain their trust and support.
I firmly believe that the citizens of Sri Lanka will exercise their voting rights with the intention of supporting candidates who exhibit qualities of integrity and a commitment to ethical conduct. The electorate is likely to favour individuals who are not tainted by corruption and pledge to bring about positive outcomes and prosperity for the population.
In this crucial decision-making process, voters are likely to prioritise candidates who demonstrate a genuine desire to address the needs and concerns of the people. This could include a focus on economic development, social welfare, and the nation’s overall well-being.
The desire for leaders who prioritise the country’s best interests over personal gain is a common sentiment among the electorate. The expectation is that elected representatives will work towards fostering a climate of transparency, accountability, and responsible governance.
As the electoral process unfolds, it becomes a platform for the expression of the people’s collective will, reflecting their aspirations for a brighter and more prosperous future. The emphasis on non-corrupt, positive, and outcome-driven leadership underscores the importance of building a nation that thrives on justice, fairness, and progress principles.
Opinion
Nonalignment, neutrality, morality and the national nnterest
The terms ‘nonalignment’ and ‘neutrality’ are being touted in local and global news due to Sri Lanka’s denial to Iran to dock three of its naval vessels in national harbors for an unplanned ‘goodwill visit’ between 9 and 13 March, and refusal to the United States to land two of its fighters at the civilian airport in Mattala between 4 and 8 March. Intriguingly, both requests were received on the same day, 26 February 2026, just 48 hours prior to the onset of hostilities.
Though Sri Lanka denied permission for the so-called ‘goodwill visit’ its Navy and Airforce rescued over 30 Iranian crew members and recovered over 80 bodies when their ship, the IRIS Dena was sunk by the US Navy and allowed another Iranian ship, the IRIS Bushehr to dock in Trincomalee as it claimed technical difficulties. This was done only after taking the ship under Sri Lankan control, by separating its sailors from the ship and bringing it to Colombo, thereby ensuring it no longer had any offensive military intent.
The Sri Lankan President in a press conference in Colombo on 5 March noted on the Iranian issue, “our position has been to safeguard our neutrality while demonstrating our humanitarian values.” As he further noted, “amidst all this, as a government, we have intervened in a manner that safeguards the reputation and dignity of our country, protects human lives and demonstrates our commitment to international conventions.” Explaining what he meant by neutrality, he noted, “we do not act in a biased manner towards any state, nor do we submit to any state … we firmly believe that this is the most courageous and humanitarian course of action that a state can take.” On the US issue, the President observed in Parliament on 20 March, “they wanted to bring two warplanes armed with eight anti-ship missiles from a base in Djibouti” and “we turned down the request to maintain Sri Lanka’s neutrality.”
In both incidents, in addition to reiterating Sri Lanka’s neutrality, the other point that has been emphasis+ed is Sri Lanka’s long-standing official position of ‘non-alignment.’ As the President noted in his parliamentary speech, “with two requests before us, the decision was clear… we denied both in order to avoid taking sides.” Suddenly, the concepts of neutrality and non-alignment are in the forefront of Sri Lanka’s political discourse after a considerable time, but it has emerged more in a rhetorical sense than at a considered policy position at the level of government thinking and popular acceptance.
I say this because two crucial concepts are missing in these conversations and pronouncements. These are ‘morality’ and ‘national interest’ even though they are irrevocably linked to the previous concepts which would be meaningless if adequate heed is not paid to the latter two. Let me be clear. I agree with Sri Lanka’s position with regard to both incidents and the diplomatic and statesman-like way both were handled. It brought to the fore something on which I have written about in the past. That is, the necessity and the reasonable possibility of smaller states to take clear positions when dealing with powerful countries. Sri Lanka has done so this time.
However, both neutrality and nonalignment cannot be taken out of context merely as terms. They must be situated in a broader historical and political context which can only be done if morality and national interest are not only brought into the equation, but also into policy and the public consciousness. Non-alignment as an international relations concept found its genesis at the time of the Cold War on the basis of which nations, which mostly consisted of former European colonies or what were known collectively at the time as the ‘Third World’, decided not to join major power blocs of the time, i.e. the US and the Soviet Union as well as former imperial centers.
At least, this was the official position and, in this sense, indicated a desire to follow an independent path stressing national sovereignty and national interest, rather than neutrality in the conventional sense. But in practice, even in the heyday of the Nonaligned Movement’s influence in the 1970s, many of its members were very clearly aligned to one or the other of the superpowers based on matters of political necessity and simple survival. The formal dictionary meaning of neutrality is, “not taking sides in a dispute, conflict, or contest, often implying a position of impartiality, independence, or non-participation.” These are the two rhetorical positions Sri Lanka took with regard to both incidents referred to above.
But both decisions should have been more specifically taken, and the local and global discourses emanating from them cautiously guided, based on principles of morality and national interest. These do not contradict nonalignment and neutrality in their general sense. Sri Lanka’s decision to not approve docking or landing rights to both warring countries in this context is correct. But where is morality? It is partly embedded in the President’s stated interest in ensuring no further lives were lost.
What is missing in this moral position however is the clearly articulated fact that the war against Iran by the US and Israel are illegal, immoral and contradicts all applicable international laws and conventions. Sri Lanka’s statements and what is publicly available on the President’s and the Foreign Minister’s reported conversations with Gulf leaders are inconsequential and bland. Despite Iran’s bleak track record when it comes to democracy and human rights within, the country has stood by Sri Lanka during the civil war years supplying weapons when very few states did, and also when Sri Lanka was named and shamed in the circus of the UN’s Human Rights Council for almost two decades. Taking a position regarding the illegality of the war against Iran does not mean Sri Lanka cannot be neutral or non-aligned. It could have still taken the same decision it has already taken. But it would have been able to do so from a moral high ground.
The other reason often given for harping on neutrality and non-alignment is the fear of being reprimanded by the mad men and women currently holding power in the US. But the Republican Party or President Trump are not the Caesars of the Roman Empire. Trump’s term ends in January 2029. The Republican Party is already feeling the negative consequences of the war at home. Given the chaos Trump has brought in, which has added to the cost of living of US citizens, the needless expenditure the war has burdened the US taxpayers with, and the US’s continued marginalisation in the international order, it is very unlikely any of the present practices (note: not policies) will be carried forward in the same nonsensical sense. This is precisely the time to take the moral high ground. If we do, and continue to do so, it will become apparent that we as a nation act upon principles and laws. Such continuity will earn the country respect in the global arena even though not necessarily make us popular. This is a crucial asset small nations must have when dealing with global powers. But this must be earned through consistent practice and not be the result of accidents.
This is also where national interest comes in as a matter of policy. Sri Lanka needs to reiterate not only for the present but also for the future that its decisions are based on national interest. This could include permitting the US or any other country to land or dock in a future conflict if it benefits us in terms of local defense. But such a decision should not be a decision forced upon us. This is not old-school nonalignment or neutrality. Instead, it is about taking a position – not a particular side – in the interest of safeguarding the national interest as a matter of principle and taking the moral high ground in international relations which will ensure both nonalignment and neutrality in a pragmatic and beneficial sense in the long term.
Our leaders and our people need to learn how to be pro-Sri Lankan both in domestic and global matters as a national operational principle.
Opinion
Question of integrity and corporate liability in Transnational Higher Education in Sri Lanka
According to a paper commissioned by Anthony Welch for the 2021/2022 UNESCO Global Education Monitoring Report on “Non-state actors in Education Across Asia”, the rise of Transnational HE was underpinned by tensions between growth in demand, and, on the other hand, the inability or unwillingness of many governments to finance this expansion sufficiently (UNESCO & Welch, 2021). Globally, almost 70 million, or one in three of all students, are now enrolled in private HEIs (UNESCO & Welch, 2021). This pattern is similar and highly diverse in Asia where more than 35% of students are in the private sector.
However, enhance transparency in governance in Transnational education is of paramount importance as there is a corporate liability disregarded at a greater extent by the private HE mushrooming in this country. As Transnational Higher Education attracts many students, the responsibility of the relevant authorities should strengthen the integrity of governance of this sector and increase accountability.
On the other hand, corruption perception index in the 2025 (CPI) released by Transparency International, Sri Lanka, showed significant improvement, rising 14 places to rank 107th out of 182 countries, up from 121st in 2024. Despite such a movement ahead, accountability lies among the Private HEIs engaged in Transnational HE to prevent any risk leading to corruption.
Having considered the aforementioned scenario following cases, encountered in the recent past and I wonder what “higher education” do they offer.
Risk of corruption
An applicant, being a sole proprietor, has signed an agreement with another agent of private HEI in Nachchaduwa, Anuradhapura (Registered office), where operating office being the, Rathmalkatuwa, Inamaluwa, Kandalama, Dambulla, without looking at the agreements entered with the Foreign University by the respective agents. Sub agents are not aware on what conditions the principal foreign university has imposed, whether the respective university is authorised to offer such programmes in overseas. Have they been accredited in their countries by the accreditation authorities, despite their listing in the World Higher Education Database and Association of Commonwealth Universities. Whether these private HEIs are blacklisted organisations need to be checked with National Information Centres of the respective countries. All agents operating Transnational HE should be accountable and responsible as they are serving the poor students of this country who ultimately face consequences when they go on searching for employment opportunities. They are facing many issues with respective Qualification Frameworks operating in those countries.
Fake Credentials and Fabricating Documents
There are massive complaints regarding the issuance of fake certificates and forgery in Higher Education forwarded by many parties. Some organisations themselves print certificates without obtaining original certificates from the principal foreign university. Poor students do not know this situation of the higher education provider.
Call for State organisations to be aware of Transnational HE
There are many state organisations without proper verifications on credentials engage in recruitment of their employees just based on the listing of world higher education database and Association of Commonwealth Universities without further checking on the existence of such programmes in the respective countries with their accreditation authorities.
Recently while World Higher Education Database and UKEnic has clarified on the nonexistence of a respective university, there are instances where institutions that were accredited in the past but were not accredited now. The respective Universities in certain instances were listed and not currently listed due to non-acceptance by the accreditation authorities. Therefore, organisations need to be cautious about the accreditation of such universities in the respective countries as Sri Lanka is haunted by a massive network of agents and subagents of foreign HEIs operated as designated centres, appointed agents.
There are many ways to do Transnational education. There is distance education done with a local partner. There are several forms of arrangement in transnational education such as franchising arrangements, partnerships with local providers, either at the programme level or (occasionally) at the level of creating a whole new institution, branch campuses. However, there is a necessity of some kind of regulation as there is an escalation of fraud.
Overall regulations governing the operations of Transnational HE in Sri Lanka as a country aim to reach Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 4) was deemed as transparent and not fully understood by stakeholders, there are no local mechanisms to affirm and benchmark the quality of Transnational Education programmes to that of the local HE standards. There is a sense of flexibility in forging Transnational Education partnerships though the absence of regulations, which may over time negatively impact public perceptions of Transnational Education’s quality
Despite these circumstances there are countries that maintain their Agent network through proper training and licensing system to facilitate their regulation.
Transparency of Agents engaged in Transnational HE
A parent has made a complaint against a leading HEI for misleading through an unauthorised three-year degree programme (two-year top-up) and causing irreparable career damage and mental distress, wasting money and time. When she forwarded the matter to the Chief Executive, New Zealand Qualification Authority (NZQA) for entry into the teaching profession, she was informed that the HEI concerned was not permitted to engage in such programmes overseas. The question is how the MOU was signed and how programmes were offered in Sri Lanka.
Where is the corporate liability and integrity in these activities?
by Dr. Janadari Wijesinghe
Opinion
Tassil passes away
Tassil Samarasinghe passed away on Monday, March 16, 2026. Fondly known as ‘Kunjan’ to his family and close friends, Tassil hadn’t been in the best of health over the past few years. He experienced difficulty maintaining his balance, and, therefore, walking, which probably caused the fall at home, and resulting in an head injury, which took his life.
Tassil was my school friend. We were members of the 16th Colombo Cub pack and scout troop at S. Thomas’ College, Mt. Lavinia, in the 1950s and ’60s. I remember how he played Ali Baba’s mother in the scout concert, produced and directed by our scout master, the late Mr. Wilson I. Muttiah.
We were also next-door neighbours in Mt. Lavinia. During school holidays, in the early morning, Tassil and I would go on long walks, along the beach, sometimes helping the fishermen to draw in their nets. Tassil was a good conversationalist and highly opinionated, even as a teenager.
In those days a fellow beachcomber was former Prime Minister Sir John Kotelawala. We used to put our feet on his fresh footprints in the sand, and declare that we were walking in his footsteps!
The rest of the day we would play cards (304) with his mother and some of the boarders staying at their home. Then my family moved away to Colombo, but I was always a welcome guest at the Samarasinghe residence.
One of Tassil’s many hobbies, in addition to collecting stamps and playing bridge, was breeding ornamental fish in large ground tanks. I, too, was bitten by the aquarium fish bug. He was also a lover of good music, like his older brother Nihal – known to Thomian cubs and scouts of that era as ‘Local’ – who rose to fame as ‘Sam the Man’, the acclaimed Sri Lankan western musician, singer and band-leader.
In school, Tassil was popular with our GCE O-Level English teacher Mr. A.S.P. (Shirley) Goonetilleke.
After leaving school, Tassil and I were members of the Rotary Club together, where we would occasionally meet. Tassil married Shirani and they had two children, Tilani and Viswanath. Unfortunately, Viswanath lost his life in a bicycle accident several years ago.
I extend my deepest sympathies to Shirani, Tilani and family.
“You will always remember
Wherever you maybe,
The School of your boyhood,
The School by the Sea.
And you’ll always remember
The friendships fine and free,
That you made at S. Thomas’
The School by the Sea.”
(Rev Canon Roy H. Bowyer-Yin)
Farewell, dear friend. May you attain the supreme bliss of Nibbana.
‘GAF’
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