Opinion
Insights into Sri Lanka’s next presidential election and challenges faced by NPP
Navigating political landscape:
By Prof. Amarasiri de Silva
Sri Lanka’s next presidential election, scheduled between September and October 2024, has heightened the political atmosphere with anticipation. According to the Constitution of Sri Lanka, voters can elect a president for a five-year term. The election process involves limited ranked voting, allowing voters to express up to three ranked preferences for the president. If no candidate receives over 50% of valid votes on the first count, all candidates except the top two are eliminated. The second and third preferences of the eliminated candidates are then distributed until one of the remaining two candidates secures an outright majority. While this system has seen limited use in practice, citizens often choose to mark only one candidate, with many unaware that multiple candidates can be ranked.
In the current political landscape of Sri Lanka, the primary contenders are the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), a political alliance led by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and the Jathika Jana Balavegaya, the National People’s Power (NPP), led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPFA) is emerging with limited popularity. There are ongoing negotiations regarding the incumbent president, Ranil Wickremasinghe, who is expected to contest as a joint UNP and SLPFA candidate. The nation eagerly awaits the outcome of this significant political event.
As highlighted by the news media, NPP and SJB have attracted massive crowds to their election meetings, with significant attention focused on the NPP. In the 2019 presidential election, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPFA) secured 52.25% of the votes, while the United National Party (UNP) gained 41.99% support. The NPP, on the other hand, received 3.16% of the votes.
Recent polls on election preferences in Sri Lanka reveal a dynamic and evolving political landscape. According to opinion polls by the National Health Policy Institute, Sri Lanka’s NPP, led by AK Dissanayake, has shown steady progress, garnering 51% of the votes. The upcoming presidential election promises to be a closely watched and contested event, reflecting the changing dynamics of public opinion.
The question delves into a fascinating aspect of social science research and the potential impact of public opinion polls on the opinions they aim to measure. Let’s break down the query:
“The question is whether the public opinion polls, by measuring opinion, affect the opinion they measure?” This inquiry essentially explores the concept of reflexivity in social research. Reflexivity refers to the idea that the act of measuring or observing a phenomenon can, in turn, influence or change that phenomenon. In the context of public opinion polls, the question is whether the mere act of measuring people’s opinions can alter those opinions.
“The question of whether, and how much, an instrument influences what it is designed to measure is analytically distinct from the question of its accuracy.” This statement emphasises the need to distinguish between two key aspects: the impact an instrument (in this case, public opinion polls) has on what it aims to measure and the accuracy of the measurements. Analysing the influence of the instrument on the measured opinions is a separate consideration from evaluating how accurately it captures those opinions.
“Any reading, accurate or not, of the public mind will enter into.” This part suggests that regardless of whether the public opinion polls provide accurate or inaccurate readings, the results will still have an impact. The act of measuring public opinion, even if flawed, becomes part of the broader discourse, and can influence various aspects of society.
In summary, the question raises issues related to reflexivity in social research, urging a closer examination of how the measurement process itself may shape the opinions being measured. It also highlights the distinction between the instrument’s influence and its accuracy, emphasising that even imperfect measurements can have significant consequences in shaping public discourse.
The current technological landscape, characterised by smartphones and internet connectivity, allows for the instantaneous evaluation of public responses to political events. This information can be rapidly disseminated through mass media channels. However, in Sri Lanka, there seems to be a noticeable absence of swift information dissemination that significantly influences polling behaviour.
Sri Lanka’s election history has demonstrated the potential for momentous changes in public opinion, particularly in the final moments leading up to the elections. The 2019 elections witnessed the National People’s Power (NPP) drawing tremendous crowds to rallies in support of Anura Dissanayake. However, despite the massive support, Mr. Dissanayake ultimately secured only 3.16% of the votes.
This article explores the pivotal factors that may have a last-minute influence on the voting preferences of individuals who endorse the NPP and actively participate in its gatherings. Grasping the dynamics that shape voters’ decisions in the concluding stages of an election is essential for conducting a thorough analysis of the political terrain and anticipating possible changes in public sentiment.
Voters in their 40s, 50s, and beyond vividly recollect the events of 1987 and 1971 led by the JVP. Despite the declining trend in population growth, the overall population has surged from 7,945,977 in 1950 to 21,949,268 in 2023—an impressive general population increase of approximately 176.52% from 1950 to 2023. About 50% of the population could recall the 1971 and 1987 incidents, which may act as deterrents to last-minute voting behaviour, even though people attend NPP political rallies in large numbers.
In numerous villages, about three fell victim to the violence of the JVP during the tumultuous period of 1987. I have firsthand knowledge of a tragic incident in my village in Batapola, where three individuals lost their lives for supporting the UNP. In my neighbourhood, a harrowing episode unfolded as a middle-aged mechanic was forcibly taken from his home at night—he cowered under the bed in fear—and was apprehended, ostensibly for questioning related to specific incidents. A few minutes later, the household residents and the surrounding area were startled by the sound of a gunshot. He was found lifeless, bound to a Kitul tree. The mechanic, a father of two, left behind a wife without employment or any other source of income. The children, unable to pursue their education, found themselves compelled to engage in underage wage work to support their mother and the family.
The village, being closely knit, remembers this incident and asserts that they would never vote for the NPP, the successor of the JVP. Similar incidents have occurred in many villages. My estimate is that there would be 50,000 to 75,000 such incidents spread across the villages and urban areas of Sri Lanka. I presume that the NPP must be cognizant of these incidents, and it’s plausible that they have created a database to document such occurrences.
The burning of the Meetiyagoda Weaving Mills in 1971 during the insurrection had a significant impact on the local community in Batapola and Meetiyagoda. The weaving mill, which employed nearly 5000 people in the surrounding villages, was an essential source of livelihood for many. The memory of this devastating event seems to have left a lasting impact on the residents, and there is a sense of fear among them regarding the NPP coming to power. The concern is that it may lead to similar incidents or other actions that could negatively affect the community.
To address these fears and gain the support of the people, the NPP, if aspiring to come to power, should consider developing a comprehensive strategy. This strategy should focus on addressing the community’s specific concerns, providing assurances, and outlining plans for alleviating fears of the people.
The NPP claims to have 39 million rupees in their funds, which they are considering using for the upcoming election. An impactful and compassionate approach to utilise a portion of these funds would be to allocate financial assistance to the families whose breadwinners fell victim to the violence inflicted by the JVP. This gesture could be a significant source of comfort to these affected families, potentially alleviating their fears and fostering support for the NPP.
Taking proactive steps to visit the homes of these families, the regional leaders of the NPP should express their solidarity and convey heartfelt support. They must empathise with the pain and loss experienced by these families, emphasising that the decision to target and harm their loved ones was a misguided policy. Furthermore, the leaders should make it clear that the present stance of the NPP denounces such harmful policies and advocates for a more inclusive and compassionate approach.
By demonstrating genuine concern and taking tangible actions, the NPP can provide financial relief and build a stronger connection with the affected communities. This outreach effort has the potential to contribute to a positive perception of the party among the families who have suffered, creating a pathway for trust and potential support in the upcoming election.
Additionally, the fear expressed by my friend in Australia regarding the NPP potentially acquiring empty houses and distributing them to homeless people highlights the need for clear communication and transparency from the NPP. Assuring property owners that their assets will be protected and outlining the party’s housing policies can help alleviate such concerns. Effective communication, community engagement, and a well-thought-out strategy are crucial for any political party seeking to address the people’s fears and gain their trust and support.
I firmly believe that the citizens of Sri Lanka will exercise their voting rights with the intention of supporting candidates who exhibit qualities of integrity and a commitment to ethical conduct. The electorate is likely to favour individuals who are not tainted by corruption and pledge to bring about positive outcomes and prosperity for the population.
In this crucial decision-making process, voters are likely to prioritise candidates who demonstrate a genuine desire to address the needs and concerns of the people. This could include a focus on economic development, social welfare, and the nation’s overall well-being.
The desire for leaders who prioritise the country’s best interests over personal gain is a common sentiment among the electorate. The expectation is that elected representatives will work towards fostering a climate of transparency, accountability, and responsible governance.
As the electoral process unfolds, it becomes a platform for the expression of the people’s collective will, reflecting their aspirations for a brighter and more prosperous future. The emphasis on non-corrupt, positive, and outcome-driven leadership underscores the importance of building a nation that thrives on justice, fairness, and progress principles.
Opinion
The Cream of the Earth: Why Sri Lanka needs a Fruit Consumers Movement
By Lalin I De Silva
Sri Lanka speaks constantly about hospitals, medicines, food imports, agricultural productivity and the rising cost of living. Yet there is one simple question we rarely ask:
Are we eating enough of the food that our own soil can naturally give us?
Fruit is perhaps one of the finest gifts of the earth to humankind. A ripe mango, banana, papaya, guava or avocado comes to us almost ready to eat. Sunlight, rain, soil, microorganisms, minerals and the labour of a farmer have already done most of the work.
That is why I like to describe fruit as the “cream of the earth.”
This is, of course, not an argument that fruit alone can prevent every disease, or guarantee longevity. Science does not support such exaggerated claims. But there is strong international evidence that regular consumption of fruits and vegetables forms an important part of a healthy diet and is associated with lower risks of several major non-communicable diseases.
Sri Lanka’s own dietary guidance encourages the daily consumption of fruit as part of a balanced diet.
The tragedy is that we live on an island capable of producing an extraordinary variety of fruits, while many families increasingly depend on highly processed foods, sugary drinks and imported snacks.
This deserves national attention.
We Produce — But Do We Connect?
Sri Lanka grows banana, mango, pineapple, papaya, avocado, rambutan, mangosteen, guava, woodapple, beli, pomegranate, durian and many lesser-known indigenous fruits.
Yet our fruit value chain remains fragmented.
The farmer often does not know the final consumer.
The consumer rarely knows the farmer.
Fruit travels through several intermediaries, sometimes suffering poor handling, unnecessary damage and price escalation along the way.
Consumers may not know where a fruit was grown, when it was harvested, whether it was naturally matured or what crop-protection practices were followed.
Meanwhile, a careful farmer, producing exceptional fruit, may receive almost the same farm-gate price as someone producing an inferior product.
That is not value-chain management.
It is precisely this disconnect that a new citizen-led initiative could begin to address.
25 Districts — 25 Consumer Societies
A proposal now emerging is to establish a Pure Sri Lankan Authentic Healthy Fruit Consumers Society in each of Sri Lanka’s 25 districts.
The concept should not become another organisation full of titles, meetings and ceremonial functions.
Its purpose must be practical.
Each district society could bring together consumers, growers, doctors, nutritionists, horticulturists, schools, universities, retailers, hotels, processors and young entrepreneurs.
The first task would be to understand the district itself.
What fruits are grown?
Where are they grown?
When are they available?
Which traditional varieties are disappearing?
Where can consumers purchase genuinely good fruits?
Where are the post-harvest losses?
What do farmers need?
What do consumers actually want?
From this information, each district could eventually develop its own Fruit Map.
Twenty-five district maps could then become a National Fruit Map of Sri Lanka.
From Anonymous Fruit to Traceable Fruit
Imagine buying a mango and scanning a QR code.
You could see the district, grower, variety, approximate harvest date and production information.
You could perhaps even provide feedback on taste.
That may sound futuristic, but the technology already exists.
The problem is not technology.
The problem is that our food system was never designed to connect the person who grows the fruit with the person who eats it.
Traceability could change that.
The principle is simple:
Know your farmer. Know your fruit.
Let the Consumer Lead
For decades, agriculture has largely been driven from the production side.
“How much can we produce?” has been the dominant question.
A healthier agricultural economy should begin with another question:
What does the consumer need, value and trust?
If thousands of consumers deliberately demand fresh, safe, flavorful and traceable Sri Lankan fruit, the message travels backwards through the entire value chain.
Retailers respond.
Farmers respond.
Nurseries respond.
Researchers respond.
Investors respond.
Government eventually has to respond.
That is the real power of an organised consumer movement.
Start With Children
Perhaps the most powerful campaign message could be remarkably simple:
Two Fruits a Day.
Imagine a Sri Lankan child coming home from school and asking:
“What are our fruits today?”
Imagine every school having a small fruit garden.
Imagine children being able to identify 10 Sri Lankan fruits, understand their seasons and know where they are grown.
Such behavioral change cannot be achieved merely by issuing circulars from Colombo.
It must become part of family culture.
Kandy Could Begin
Kandy would be a logical district in which to pilot the concept.
Its climatic diversity, surrounding agricultural communities, educational institutions, hotels, markets and strong plantation heritage provide an excellent testing ground.
A successful Kandy model could then be adapted—not blindly copied—across the other 24 districts.
The objective should ultimately be much larger than selling more fruit.
It is about reconnecting soil, farmer, food, consumer and health.
Sri Lanka does not need to invent every solution from outside.
Sometimes the answer may already be hanging from a tree beside us.
We simply have to recognise its value.
Know Your Farmer. Know Your Fruit. Live Well.
Opinion
‘Outpost of Empire’
Review
by Colleen Figg, Editor
and Reviewer – Amazon, New Voices Publishing
“Fernando echoes Macbeth with the line, “There is judgment here.” It captures the question running through the novel: can anyone participate in corruption and remain untouched by it? Beneath this satire is a dark story about power and the danger of believing, that someone else will always pay the price.”
Shavindra Fernando’s Outpost of Empire is a political novel set in the fictional country of Lackadasia. At its heart is a strong idea: an exploration of world politics, terrorism and the ways in which powerful countries manipulate smaller ones. Fernando is clearly writing about political issues that matter deeply to him.
The names immediately establish the book’s satirical character. Lackadasia, Burgherbugaria and the various Klowns suggest a world in which the people and places are exaggerated, but the issues beneath the exaggeration are recognisable. The playful language allows Fernando to approach terrorism, religious conflict and political corruption from an unusual angle.
Henry Stockwell is a central character: an ambassador who arrives in Lackadasia presenting himself as a friend of the country. He believes he understands how power works and treats the country, its politicians and its people as pawns on his personal chessboard. In his arrogance, he never doubts that he controls events rather than being controlled by them. This confidence makes him a compelling figure and in him, we explore the workings of political influence and the potential traps contained therein.
As the story develops, Fernando reveals a political world where causes are adopted when they are useful, people are exploited and discarded, and the truth becomes whatever those in power need it to be. Ordinary people suffer the consequences of decisions made far beyond their reach or knowledge, while those making those decisions continue to justify their actions. Even the people who help keep this world running may not be as important or as safe as they imagine.
Stockwell brings this idea into focus. He recognises corruption in others and willingly takes part in it himself, yet he cannot see that he might also suffer its consequences. Ultimately, he thinks his position will keep him safe. He is intelligent enough to understand the game, but not insightful enough to grasp the limits of his place within it. This blindness gives the novel a strong sense of irony.
The satirical approach gives Fernando room to criticise political hypocrisy without turning the novel into a direct political argument. By using fictional countries and exaggerated names, he creates some distance from specific governments and events while still making the larger targets of the book clear. The humour does not take away from the seriousness of the subject; instead, it makes the cruelty and self-interest beneath the political performance stand out more sharply.
Near the end, Fernando echoes Macbeth with the line, “There is judgment here.” It captures the question running through the novel: can anyone participate in corruption and remain untouched by it? Beneath this satire is a dark story about power and the danger of believing that someone else will always pay the price.
I came away feeling that Outpost of Empire is a valuable and thought-provoking book, particularly in today’s political and social climate. It has a distinctive voice, and the questions it raises about power, responsibility and foreign interference remain relevant far beyond the fictional borders of Lackadasia.
About the Author
Shavindra Fernando has worked as a reporter. He read English & Classics at the University of Peradeniya in Sri Lanka, and took International Relations & Ethnic Politics as a Reuter Fellow at the University of Oxford in England. The Vague Poetess (1999)was his first novel.
Opinion
Speaker’s dilemma
The Opposition, in its wisdom (or perhaps stupidity), has submitted yet another No-Confidence Motion (NCM) against the Speaker of Parliament. Perhaps it hopes to score some brownie points in the eyes of the public, which is hardly indifferent to such developments. Yet, knowing full well that the motion is unlikely to succeed, the exercise may well prove futile — akin to banging one’s head against a solid rock.
Nevertheless, the nearly fifty allegations levelled against the Speaker, whether justified or mere mudslinging, cannot simply be brushed aside. Such allegations may well have a bearing on the individual concerned, particularly where it matters most — his conscience — and few would dispute that possibility.
From a protocol standpoint, the Speaker occupies one of the highest positions in the country, ranking third in the hierarchy of state. He consequently belongs to the uppermost echelons of public life, with acquaintances and associates extending across a wide spectrum of society, including diplomats and other distinguished personalities. Such a position carries with it not merely prestige and privilege, but also an onerous responsibility to uphold the dignity and integrity of the office.
As the guardian of Parliament, the Speaker is expected to maintain standards of conduct, impartiality and discipline that are beyond reproach.
Whether the allegations are justifiable or not may be of little consequence to members of the ruling party, who will undoubtedly defend their colleague to the hilt. Nevertheless, the stigma arising from such allegations may prove difficult to erase, particularly in the eyes of his family, close associates and, ultimately, the voters who placed their trust in him. Of course, it is common knowledge that politics can be a dirty game and that, as Lord Acton famously observed, “power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
Yet, nothing could be more devastating than a person losing his own soul in the process. On the one hand, stepping down could be construed as an admission of responsibility for the allegations levelled against him. On the other, allowing the No-Confidence Motion (NCM) to proceed could expose him to further public scrutiny and potentially inflict lasting damage on his character, dignity and reputation. Thus, he finds himself caught between two unenviable choices, each carrying consequences that may extend far beyond the immediate political fallout.
The Speaker is therefore confronted with a classic Hobson’s choice, with neither option likely to be without consequences. After all, in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies—only permanent interests.
WILLIAM
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