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India’s GDP growth is on course to print close to 7 percent this year in 2022-23, foreign brokerage, JP Morgan said in a report

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Global slowdown may hit India’s growth in 2023-24

IANS: India’s GDP growth is on course to print close to 7 per cent this year in 2022-23, foreign brokerage, JP Morgan said in a report.While buoyant, it would still leave output about 7 per cent below its pre-pandemic potential trend, reflective of impact of the pandemic and adverse terms of trade shock from higher commodity prices in 2022.

Growth is expected to slow in 2023-24, on the back of a sharp global slowdown, which is weighing on exports, and the progressive fiscal and monetary policy normalization at home, JP Morgan said.

That said, corporate and bank balance sheets appear in much better shape than in recent years. Corporate debt/GDP is at its lowest since 2006 and banks are far more inclined to lend. But a broader private investment cycle will take time to fructify amidst elevated global uncertainty, slowing growth, tightening monetary conditions, manufacturing utilization rates still less than 80 per cent, the report added.

The Current Account Deficit (CAD) is on track to print above 3 percent of GDP this year as exports have slowed and imports remain very sticky; bringing the CAD back to sustainable levels will have to be a key policy imperative in 2023.In turn, key to CAD compression is continued fiscal consolidation off still-elevated levels; we expect the Center to achieve the budgeted fiscal deficit of 6.4 per cent of GDP this year and target a consolidation of 0.5 per cent of GDP next year; the fiscal balancing act will involve reducing the deficit while sustaining strong capex.

Inflation is expected to remain sticky in the coming months before gradually rolling off in 2023-24 as growth slows and input price pressure abates.With the RBI raising rates by about 300 bps in 2022 and tightening liquidity, we expect the MPC is getting close to a pause, with the risk of a final 25 bps hike at the February review, the report added.



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New landslide alerts as Ditwah aftermath worsens

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Death toll hits 627, over 2.17 mn affected across 25 districts

The Disaster Management Centre (DMC) has issued fresh landslide warnings as relentless heavy rains continue to pound regions still reeling from Cyclone Ditwah.

The Department of Meteorology has cautioned that thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall are likely across parts of the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces, as well as Galle and Matara districts. Rainfall is expected to intensify further on the 9th, 10th, and 11th of this month.

Authorities urged the public to stay indoors in safe buildings or vehicles and avoid open areas such as coconut and tea plantations, playgrounds, and reservoirs, during adverse weather events. The public has also been advised against using fixed-line phones, electrical appliances, and open vehicles like bicycles, tractors, and boats due to the risk of lightning strikes and strong winds.

With the northeast monsoon gradually intensifying, occasional rains are also expected in the Northern, North Central, Eastern, and Uva provinces, with some areas of the Batticaloa district expected to receive up to 75 mm of rainfall. Misty conditions may affect parts of the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, and Uva provinces during early mornings.

The DMC has said the floods and landslides, triggered by Cyclone Ditwah, have so far claimed 627 lives, with 190 people still missing. More than 2.17 million people, across 25 districts, have been affected, including 611,530 families. A total of 4,517 houses have been destroyed, and 76,066 partially damaged, leaving over 80,500 homes affected, nationwide.

Kandy is the hardest hit District, recording 232 deaths, 81 missing persons, 1,800 fully destroyed houses, and over 13,000 partially damaged homes. Puttalam and Kurunegala reported 573 and 480 fully destroyed houses, respectively, while Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, and Gampaha also suffered extensive property losses.

Authorities have set up 956 safety centres across the country, currently sheltering 27,663 families, totaling 89,857 people. Relief and rehabilitation efforts are ongoing, with priority given to food, water, and medical aid. Officials warned residents in landslide-prone areas to remain in shelters until conditions stabilise.

by Chaminda Silva

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Over 35,000 drug offenders nabbed in 36 days

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In a massive nationwide crackdown under the Ratama Ekata (A Nation United) Drug Prevention Programme, police have taken 35,855 drug traffickers and users into custody across the country in just 36 days, according to Deputy Inspector General of Police Ashoka Dharmasena.

During the operation, authorities had seized 268 kilos of heroin and 994 kilos of ‘Ice’ (crystal methamphetamine), Dharmasena added.

He also highlighted that since January 2025, the ongoing campaign had resulted in the confiscation of 1,754 kilos of heroin, 3,535 kilos of ‘Ice,’ and 15,975 kilos of cannabis, marking a significant blow to drug networks operating nationwide.

The Police Narcotics Bureau Chief said that the drive was part of an ongoing effort to curb drug abuse and trafficking across the country, sending a strong message to offenders that law enforcement would leave no stone unturned in tackling the menace.

by Norman Palihawadane and Hemantha Randunu

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Rising water level in Malwathu Oya triggers alert in Thanthirimale

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The Hydrology and Disaster Management Directorate yesterday issued a cautionary alert as the water level in the Malwathu Oya continued to rise steadily, increasing the possibility of localised flooding in vulnerable settlements downstream.

As of 3.30 p.m. yesterday, the river gauge at Thanthirimale reported a water level of 6.48 metres, surpassing the official alert threshold of 5.00 metres and edging closer to the minor flood level of 6.80 metres. Officials classified the situation as “Alert – Rising”, prompting heightened field surveillance.

“We are monitoring the trend closely because the gauge shows a continuous rise. Even moderate rainfall upstream could elevate the risk of inundation across low-lying agricultural communities,” said a senior hydrology officer attached to the monitoring team.

Director (Hydrology and Disaster Management) Eng. L. S. Sooriyabandara, reviewing the bulletin, said the Department was alerting regional disaster coordinators to ensure preparedness measures were in place.

“Our teams are following this closely. Residents living adjacent to low-elevation areas of Malwathu Oya should stay updated on advisories issued over the next 24 hours,” he said.

The situation across other major river systems remained stable. Readings in Kelani, Kalu, Nilwala, Gin, Kirindi and Mahaweli rivers indicated no immediate threat. For instance, the Kelani Ganga at Nagalagam Street recorded 2.80 ft—well below its alert level of 4 ft—while Ratnapura on the Kalu Ganga continued at a safe 2.04 m against its alert threshold of 5.20 m.

Checking Officer W.A.S. Saumya (H.D.S.-Act) said that the forecast remains favourable, with many basin stations recording minimal rainfall during the six-hour interval up to 3.00 p.m. “Although the overall rainfall patterns appear low, it is critical not to be complacent given upstream variability,” Saumya said.

The latest river assessment bulletin was prepared by Duty Hydrology Analyst K.K.C.U. Dilshan, who confirmed that monitoring will continue overnight.

Authorities urged farming communities, school transport operators and residents living close to the floodplain of Malwathu Oya to remain cautious, refrain from night-time river crossings and heed updates issued through local administrative units and disaster offices.

By Ifham Nizam

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