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Import price shocks of the Hormuz Crisis 2026: How will this affect Sri Lanka?

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Dr Asanka Wijesinghe

The supply shock in the commodity market directly affects 39.3% of imports of Sri Lanka, or USD 8.3 Bn, across 951 products.

The price shock extends beyond petroleum and petrochemicals to nitrogenous fertiliser, biodiesel alternatives like palm oil, and food, exerting pressure on food prices.

Currently, price pass-through and demand management are the best options, while easing regulatory barriers, such as licensing schemes, are necessary to ensure food security.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has unsettled global energy markets. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 20 Mn barrels of crude oil products were transported through the Strait in 2025, which accounted for a quarter of the world’s daily energy needs. The closure has driven fuel futures higher, with the Brent futures reaching USD 112 per barrel on 19 March 2026 . A phenomenon called “backwardation” is clearly visible in the fuel market, implying that spot market prices for “physical” fuel are significantly higher than futures prices for “paper” fuel.

The economic impact of the energy price shock can impact Sri Lanka through various channels, and if hostilities in oil-producing regions continue, the effects will intensify over time. The immediate impact stems from rising commodity markets, including not only fuel but also biodiesel feedstocks such as soybean, canola, and palm oil; petrochemicals; fertilisers that use liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a feedstock; and aluminium and base metals, which demand significant energy for smelting.

Against this background, this article examines the future prevalence of high fuel prices, Sri Lanka’s vulnerability, the impacts on foreign exchange outflows, and the necessary policy measures to mitigate the adverse effects.

High Fuel Prices and the Effects on Sri Lanka’s Import Basket

Given that a quarter of the global energy supply is disrupted, the current energy shock is unprecedented. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fuel prices rose above USD 100 per barrel in 2022, and they remained there for roughly 90 days. The high energy cost resulted in a high inflation episode in 2022-2023. As shown in Figure 2, by the end of 2023, energy prices had returned to and stabilised around the pre-invasion level. Notably, Russia’s share of the global energy market was about 11%, while the Hormuz crisis accounts directly for around a quarter of the global energy supply. The energy infrastructure damage so far has also been significant. Thus, high fuel prices may prevail if there is no swift resolution to the crisis. Sri Lanka should consider such a possibility.

Based on 2025 import data, 39.3% of Sri Lanka’s imports, or USD 8.3 Bn, are directly exposed to rising commodity prices. Of this, USD 3.7 Bn are petroleum products, including crude oil, liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and refined fuel. Currently, the fuel price shock is 38.9% when forward-curve movements in Brent futures are factored in. Additionally, energy-intensive base metals and crude oil-based products like plastics and synthetic fibres will be expensive in the world market. These are important intermediate imports for Sri Lanka’s manufacturing sector.

Since natural gas is a key raw material for urea, increasing urea prices, in turn, raises the costs of related agricultural commodities like wheat. As shown in Figure 3, Sri Lanka spent USD 310.1 Mn on fertiliser in 2025, while the import bill for wheat and maize was USD 384.1 Mn. The global increase in fuel prices has boosted demand for biodiesel feedstocks, putting pressure on oil and fat prices, including palm oil used for cooking. Soybean meal and maize are used in poultry feed, so price hikes will have direct nutritional effects on households, mainly through reduced protein intake.

If high prices persist, Sri Lanka’s import bill is likely to increase, as the price response can be inelastic in the short run, which is common for essential commodities with few substitutes. Using 2025 monthly import values and assuming a future fuel price shock equal to the futures market-reflected percentage increase, it is estimated that Sri Lanka’s import bill could rise by USD 1.9 Bn. This means Sri Lanka will incur a 23% increase in imports over the baseline of USD 8.3 Bn. However, the estimated value is at the upper-bound as it is assumed that Sri Lanka would consume the same quantity as in 2025. If high prices persist, adjustments across the entire economy will inevitably necessitate changes in quantity. Demand will contract when a high import price is passed on to consumers. Such a response can be quantified using product-level import demand elasticities. If higher prices lead to reduced demand, Sri Lanka’s import bill could fall by about USD 608 Mn relative to the baseline. However, such a reduction would mainly occur if energy use adjusts in line with longterm demand patterns. This estimate also does not account for wider, economywide adjustments to higher import prices. Under a full demandadjustment scenario, the overall effect would therefore be a net reduction of USD 608 Mn.

Policy Options for Sri Lanka

Although inflationary pressures remain a serious concern for Sri Lanka in the post-Hormuz crisis period, a transparent pass-through of the supply shock to price levels is a suitable policy. While memories of recent high-inflation episodes are still vivid, the Hormuz crisis and the 2022-2024 sovereign debt crises are fundamentally different events. The elevated inflation during 2022-2024 was driven by structural changes in fiscal and monetary policy. Policy implementations such as cost-reflective utility pricing, energy price pass-through, and a floating exchange rate were introduced sequentially, leading to higher inflation. The economy was moving toward reforms to address multiple distortions introduced by a low interest rate and a controlled exchange rate regime.

In the current crisis, significant price shocks from corrective policies are not anticipated. Instead, inflationary pressure resulting from the Hormuz disruption is an external, supply-side shock primarily transmitted through the prices of imported fuel, rather than via domestic policy reversals. Since high airfares and rising shipping fuel costs may impact foreign exchange inflows, managing the reserve position becomes crucial. In this context, restricting fuel consumption is essential while ensuring available fuel is allocated primarily for industrial use.

A fiscal response that suppresses the price signal, such as reducing taxes on certain imported goods, might not be suitable at the moment, as it could boost demand for very costly imported products like fuel. The analysis shows that the import bill can rise substantially if a high price prevails without a quantity adjustment. Notably, under the current framework, such import demands are transmitted to the exchange rate, which can further increase inflationary pressures. However, Sri Lanka should consider easing import licensing schemes for animal and poultry raw materials as global market prices rise, to facilitate imports and secure food supply. Temporarily removing the existing Special Commodity Levy (SCL) on corn imports should also be considered. These products incur small reserve outflows but play a larger role in the country’s protein nutrition.

By Dr Asanka Wijesinghe, Research

Fellow, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka



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Central Bank says it merely executed government instructions

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CBSL Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe takes questions from the audience at the public seminar held at the Central Bank yesterday.

USD 2.5 million sovereign debt payment:

The Central Bank merely carried out the controversial USD 2.5 million sovereign debt payment in accordance with instructions issued by the government, Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe said yesterday, emphasising that the institution acted solely in its capacity as banker to the state.

Addressing a question at a public seminar, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that the Central Bank’s responsibility in such transactions is operational rather than supervisory. According to him, once the Ministry of Finance or the Treasury issues a payment order, the Central Bank processes the transfer exactly as instructed, without involvement in determining the beneficiary or the broader decision-making process behind the payment.

The Governor’s remarks came in response to a query regarding the widely discussed USD 2.5 million sovereign debt repayment reportedly sent to a party in Australia and later alleged to have been siphoned off by a cyber criminal.

“The Central Bank is the banker to the government just as it is to commercial banks,” he explained. “When we receive a payment instruction from the Ministry of Finance or the Treasury, we execute that payment in line with the instructions given to us.”

He noted that the Central Bank credits the account specified by its client, in this case, the government — and subsequently informs the relevant authorities once the transaction has been completed. If a payment cannot be processed or is rejected by the banking system, the Bank notifies the client accordingly. And when a payment is successful, the client would receive a notification, he said.

However, Dr. Weerasinghe indicated that the Central Bank would not necessarily be aware if recipient details had been altered elsewhere in the chain of communication prior to the transaction reaching the Bank for execution.

The Governor also highlighted the institutional changes that took effect from January 1, 2026. He explained that when the Public Debt Department functioned under the Central Bank, the institution had a more direct role in sovereign debt management and decision-making. With the External Debt Department now operating under the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank’s role has become largely facilitative.

Under the current arrangement, he said, the Bank simply processes payments on behalf of the government. If the Treasury provides funds in Sri Lankan rupees, the Central Bank converts them into US dollars before remitting the payment. Alternatively, the payment may be made from government accounts maintained at the Central Bank or from the country’s foreign reserves.

To simplify the explanation, Dr. Weerasinghe compared the process to an ordinary customer instructing a commercial bank to transfer money to a designated recipient. In such instances, the bank processes the transaction based on the customer’s instructions rather than independently verifying the account details of the recipient.

Through his remarks, the Governor strongly conveyed that the Central Bank had no involvement in the policy or decision-making aspects of the disputed payment and acted purely as the executing financial institution on behalf of the government.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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Lime trees to crack HEC conundrum

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A pioneering community-based conservation initiative aimed at reducing the devastating impact of Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) while strengthening rural livelihoods was launched on Sunday in the Anuradhapura District under the theme “Lime Trees for Peace Between Elephants and People.”

The project, spearheaded by the Elephant Human Coexistence Foundation, was officially launched in Maningamuwa Village in the Central Nuwaragam Palatha Divisional Secretariat area, marking what conservationists describe as a practical and environmentally sustainable approach to one of Sri Lanka’s gravest socio-economic and ecological crises.

As part of the inaugural phase, 1,200 lime plants were distributed among four farming families to establish bio fences around agricultural lands.

The initiative seeks to use citrus-based living barriers as a natural deterrent to elephants, reducing crop raids without harming wildlife.

Co-Founder and Director of the Foundation, Panchali Panapitiya, said the project was designed not only to protect crops, but also to transform vulnerable farming communities into active custodians of coexistence.

“Human-Elephant Conflict cannot be solved through fear, violence, or isolation,” Panapitiya told The Island Financial Review. “We believe coexistence becomes sustainable only when communities themselves are empowered as leaders and partners in conservation. This initiative combines environmental protection with livelihood security.”

She said the lime tree fences would create a “living shield” around farms while simultaneously generating long-term economic benefits for rural families.

“Coexistence grows as communities thrive. Peace takes root when livelihoods are strengthened,” she said.

Sri Lanka continues to record alarming levels of Human-Elephant Conflict annually, with both elephant and human fatalities increasing in recent years. Rural farmers in districts such as Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, and Moneragala frequently suffer severe crop losses, while conventional mitigation methods — including electric fencing — often remain costly, difficult to maintain, or ecologically disruptive.

Against this backdrop, conservationists say the use of lime-based bio fencing presents a low-cost and climate-friendly alternative.

The Foundation noted that similar citrus-based deterrent systems have already demonstrated success in parts of Africa and Thailand, where elephants naturally avoid strong citrus scents. The Sri Lankan initiative aims to scientifically assess the effectiveness of local lime species as protective barriers for small and medium-scale farms.

Importantly, lime tree bio fences have already been recognised in the official Anuradhapura District Plan for the Mitigation of Human-Elephant Conflict, giving the initiative institutional backing from the District Secretariat, Divisional Secretariats, and the Department of Wildlife Conservation.

Panapitiya stressed that the project also carries broader environmental and social goals beyond conflict mitigation.

“This is about restoring harmony between people, elephants, and landscapes,” she said. “At the same time, these trees contribute to carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and economic resilience in farming communities.”

A notable component of the programme is its emphasis on women’s empowerment within the agriculture sector, traditionally dominated by men. The Foundation believes conservation-linked agriculture can create pathways towards financial independence for rural women while strengthening household resilience.

The project’s broader objectives include reducing fatalities linked to Human-Elephant Conflict, improving rural economic stability, increasing community participation in conservation efforts, and supporting the long-term preservation of Sri Lanka’s endangered elephant populations.

Environmentalists attending the launch described the initiative as an example of how conservation and rural development can work together rather than in opposition.

Those present at the event included Panapitiya, Co-Founder and Director Manoja Weerakkody, Co-Founder and Director Duminda Dissanayake, officials from the Central Nuwaragam Palatha Divisional Secretariat, and representatives of the Department of Wildlife Conservation.

The Foundation expressed hope that the programme would eventually be expanded throughout the Anuradhapura District and potentially replicated in other Human-Elephant Conflict hotspots across Sri Lanka.

By Ifham Nizam

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Strangers at orientation, family by finals- the story of friends at SLIIT

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“Bro” is a word you hear frequently at SLIIT. Study halls, elevators, canteens and even corridors echo with lively chatter of students either discussing project work, venting frustrations, debating the latest films or catching their breath from laughing. Almost immediately, ethnic backgrounds, religious beliefs, gender, and place of origin don’t matter when you hear “Bro, send me the notes,” or “Bro, let’s go for the match.”

The traditional idea of a family requires some form of biological relationship, but behind the gates at SLIIT, this is not necessarily the case. In a student body of over 25,000, studying more than 100 different programmes, friend groups frequently develop into something deeper: a sense of belonging that feels like family. Every year on International Day of Families (May 15), we are reminded of the importance of family in creating our identities and these close-knit groups at SLIIT are no different.

For many students, the university experience begins with uncertainty. Being surrounded by unexpected faces and new expectations can be intimidating at first. However, it is during these moments that long-term ties begin to form. A simple introduction during orientation, a shared chuckle during lectures, or teamwork in group projects are frequently the beginnings of meaningful friendships.

SLIIT’s vibrant student life is designed to foster these friendships. From faculty-led events and sports activities to student organizations and societies, students are nudged to collaborate despite their differences. Most importantly, these environments are designed to inspire growth and personal reflection even when faced with conflicting ideas. What results is a strong sense of community and students who have the skill to thrive in challenging situations.

These relationships evolve throughout time. Friends who stood in as study partners, motivators, and emotional support systems stay connected even after they graduate. For many alumni, these friendships are among the most treasured aspects of their academic experience. Even after transitioning into professional employment, these ties remain strong, forming networks of support, collaboration, and continued friendship.

According to Harshana, currently in their third year at SLIIT, it is critical to remember that family is not only defined by where we come from, but also by the ties we form. The friendships created at SLIIT teach that sometimes the strongest families are those we create for ourselves.

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