Business
Has Sri Lanka’s crisis-driven import controls incentivised import substitution?
By Dr Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake
In response to the economic crisis, Sri Lanka implemented import controls that expanded significantly by the end of 2022, accounting for approximately 30% of the country’s total import value (Figure 1). The controls affected various categories, including consumption goods (46%), intermediate goods (31%), and capital goods (24%). As Sri Lanka gradually eases these controls, questions arise about the necessity of this strategy and its impact on economic growth.
Was implementing import controls a necessary strategy or the easiest option available to the government?
Were import controls applied optimally to limit damaging effects on growth?
Did they distort incentives, thereby promoting domestic production of substitutable products?
To shed light on these concerns, a comprehensive analysis was conducted using a unique dataset comprising eight waves of import controls. These controls encompassed quantitative and price restrictions at a disaggregated product level using a range of Gazette notifications issued between April 2020 to September 2022.
Were Import Controls Necessary? Unravelling the Policy Objectives
The objective behind the successive rounds of controls remains unclear, with the government declaring different goals at different times. These ranged from reducing foreign currency outflows to promoting domestic production as import substitutes. As such, assessing their longer-term impacts in distorting the incentive structures is crucial. Interestingly, implementing import controls may have inadvertently encouraged import substitution, even without a protectionist intent. The complexity of the measures employed, including credit-based requirements, import licenses, suspensions, and bans, highlights the intricacies of controlling imports.
Several hypotheses prevail in determining the government’s import control preferences.
Sri Lanka’s heavy reliance on imported intermediate and capital goods for domestic consumption and export-oriented production means that these are more likely to be exempted from minimising adverse impacts on domestic production.
The large agricultural labour force has significant electoral importance, and to gain political support, the government may seize the opportunity to protect domestic food production.
If import substitution is the goal, the government will prioritise less complex products, which are easily substitutable given resource endowments and technical know-how. Thus, food items, for instance, are more likely to face import controls over highly complex products. It is worth noting that if subsequent rounds of import controls consistently include less complex food products without exemptions, it could indicate an underlying incentive structure that promotes import substitution.
Even without a protectionist motive, the import control design could inadvertently incentivise import substitution.
Our analysis revealed that the government’s import control policy preference favoured less complex products, consumer goods, and food items. This unintentionally created an incentive structure for import substitution, even without a protectionist intent. Persistent import controls on food products and low-tech manufacturing products like consumer electronics inflate domestic prices and create opportunities for higher profit margins. As these products are within the set of products that are easily substitutable for a country like Sri Lanka, which has a comparative advantage in low-tech manufacturing and a significant labour force in agriculture, import substitution might happen even without a policy intent.
The quantitative analysis identified eight waves of import controls, which tightened over time and increased in coverage. The government’s targeting of food products, consumption goods, and less complex items was not always successful, particularly in the later waves of import controls. This can be attributed to a shrinking choice set available as control measures progressed. In some import control waves, the government extended import controls to encompass more intermediate and capital goods.
The process of import substitution typically follows a sequential pattern, starting with substituting easily replaceable products before moving on to more complex ones. Therefore, irrespective of the policy objective, the distortions introduced to the incentive structure align with observations from import substitution scenarios seen in countries like Sri Lanka.
Recommendations for Prioritising Import Control Revisions
As Sri Lanka gradually eases the import controls implemented during the economic crisis, it becomes crucial to prioritise the revision process. The deciding factors may be influenced by lobbying from industries reliant on restricted imports and feedback from industry and consumers. Our analysis suggests that revisions appear to prioritise intermediate and exempted food products, reflecting a policy preference for exempting intermediate imports .
To foster innovation and enable participation in global value chains, it is economically sensible to phase out import controls on intermediate goods. However, revisions should also target consumption goods, including food. Import controls inflate domestic prices, leading to the production of less complex consumer goods and food items for domestic consumption. This diverts resources away from export industries, impeding the country’s growth in the vital export sector.
To be Continued
Sri Lanka has launched a National Digital Signing Framework, a foundational initiative paving the way for paperless governance. This strategic move eliminates the need for physical signatures and documents in government transactions, aiming to dramatically enhance efficiency, transparency, and accessibility for citizens and businesses. An analyst said that this could accelerate Sri Lanka’s governance and commercial relationships with other countries as traditional signatures make room for digitally signed documents accepted by the government.
In this significant step toward accelerating Sri Lanka’s digital transformation, eMudhra, a global leader in digital identity and security solutions, has entered into a strategic partnership with LankaSign the only Certification Service Provider (CSP) in the country that complies with the Electronic Transactions Act No. 19 of 2006, operated by LankaPay, Sri Lanka’s national payment network during recently held inauguration of INFOTEL 2025 ICT exhibition at Sirimavo Bandaranaike Exhibition Hall.
The LankaSign–eMudhra partnership brings together the strengths of LankaPay’s legally recognized digital signing certificates issued via LankaSign – the pioneering digital Certification Service Provider in Sri Lanka established in 2009 – and eMudhra’s globally trusted emSigner platform, which has enabled secure digital document signing across more than 68 countries since 2008. Through this collaboration, Sri Lankan citizens and businesses will be able to experience a seamless, secure, and user-friendly digital signing solution, enabling documents to be signed anytime, anywhere using iOS, Android, or web-based applications.
This partnership with eMudhra aligns with the national agenda to promote adoption of digital documents, reduce dependency on paper-based processes, and facilitate a more efficient, transparent, and secure digital economy. This collaboration aims to support the government’s long-term digitalization roadmap by enabling a secure digital documentation layer essential for e-government services, digital finance, and digital transformation.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
In a significant move to accelerate technological innovation in Sri Lanka, Dialog Axiata PLC, Sri Lanka’s #1 connectivity provider, and the Dialog-University of Moratuwa (UoM) Research Lab, has announced the release of SinhalaVITS, a state-of-the-art, open-source Text-to-Speech (TTS) model for the Sinhala language.
This non-commercial initiative delivers a powerful, high-quality, and natural-sounding Sinhala voice model to the public, making it freely accessible to developers, researchers, and students. The model is available for download on Hugging Face, the world’s largest open-source AI community, empowering anyone to build and experiment with advanced voice technology.
The SinhalaVITS model is the result of a deep-rooted collaboration that unites Dialog’s industry leadership with the academic excellence of the Dialog–UoM Mobile Communications Research Lab, fulfilling a vital need within Sri Lanka’s tech community for accessible, high-performance tools that drive innovation. By removing cost and licensing barriers tied to proprietary software, Dialog is empowering developers and researchers while fostering a more inclusive, collaborative, and future-ready AI ecosystem. This initiative further reinforces Dialog’s commitment to advancing Sri Lanka’s digital future—investing in open-source technology and academic partnerships to nurture local talent and lay the foundation for next-generation digital services built by Sri Lankans, for Sri Lankans.
The Hatton National Bank PLC (HNB PLC) commemorated raising LKR 10 bn with its first ever issuance of sustainable bonds by way of a market opening ceremony conducted on the trading floor of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) last week.
The 9th December issuance of 100 mn listed, rated, unsecured senior sustainable bonds, in five year and seven-year tenors, with a par value of LKR 100/- and rated “AA-(lka)” By Fitch Ratings Lanka Limited, was oversubscribed on the same day, raising LKR 10 bn.
Sustainable bonds, which were launched in Sri Lanka for the first time this year, are part of a series of GSS+ (Green, Social, Sustainable & Sustainability Linked) debt instruments. The proceeds of the sustainable bond issuance will be used by HNB PLC to fund the development and installation of solar, wind, biomass and hydropower projects, improve energy efficiency through retrofits, fund the construction of recognized ‘green’ buildings, fund investment infrastructure for water treatment, water conservation and efficient agricultural water technologies, finance housing development, healthcare and education for low- and middle-income families, promote women entrepreneurship, amongst others initiatives.
Damith Pallewatte, Managing Director and CEO of HNB PLC, who was the ceremony’s keynote speaker remarked upon the issuance of sustainable bonds commenting: “HNB’s LKR 10 bn sustainable bond issuance is a landmark step in advancing Sri Lanka’s sustainability agenda.”
Delivering his welcome address at the event, Rajeeva Bandaranaike, CEO of CSE, remarked upon rising corporate engagement in CSE’s GSS+ debt instruments stating: “HNB’s Sustainable Bond represents a welcome new addition to the list of leading Sri Lankan financial instruments that have set the example for the success of CSE’s GSS+ Bond framework which have allowed the capital market to operate as a financing vehicle for sustainable and socially equitable projects.”
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