Business
Has Sri Lanka’s crisis-driven import controls incentivised import substitution?
By Dr Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake
In response to the economic crisis, Sri Lanka implemented import controls that expanded significantly by the end of 2022, accounting for approximately 30% of the country’s total import value (Figure 1). The controls affected various categories, including consumption goods (46%), intermediate goods (31%), and capital goods (24%). As Sri Lanka gradually eases these controls, questions arise about the necessity of this strategy and its impact on economic growth.
Was implementing import controls a necessary strategy or the easiest option available to the government?
Were import controls applied optimally to limit damaging effects on growth?
Did they distort incentives, thereby promoting domestic production of substitutable products?
To shed light on these concerns, a comprehensive analysis was conducted using a unique dataset comprising eight waves of import controls. These controls encompassed quantitative and price restrictions at a disaggregated product level using a range of Gazette notifications issued between April 2020 to September 2022.
Were Import Controls Necessary? Unravelling the Policy Objectives
The objective behind the successive rounds of controls remains unclear, with the government declaring different goals at different times. These ranged from reducing foreign currency outflows to promoting domestic production as import substitutes. As such, assessing their longer-term impacts in distorting the incentive structures is crucial. Interestingly, implementing import controls may have inadvertently encouraged import substitution, even without a protectionist intent. The complexity of the measures employed, including credit-based requirements, import licenses, suspensions, and bans, highlights the intricacies of controlling imports.
Several hypotheses prevail in determining the government’s import control preferences.
Sri Lanka’s heavy reliance on imported intermediate and capital goods for domestic consumption and export-oriented production means that these are more likely to be exempted from minimising adverse impacts on domestic production.
The large agricultural labour force has significant electoral importance, and to gain political support, the government may seize the opportunity to protect domestic food production.
If import substitution is the goal, the government will prioritise less complex products, which are easily substitutable given resource endowments and technical know-how. Thus, food items, for instance, are more likely to face import controls over highly complex products. It is worth noting that if subsequent rounds of import controls consistently include less complex food products without exemptions, it could indicate an underlying incentive structure that promotes import substitution.
Even without a protectionist motive, the import control design could inadvertently incentivise import substitution.
Our analysis revealed that the government’s import control policy preference favoured less complex products, consumer goods, and food items. This unintentionally created an incentive structure for import substitution, even without a protectionist intent. Persistent import controls on food products and low-tech manufacturing products like consumer electronics inflate domestic prices and create opportunities for higher profit margins. As these products are within the set of products that are easily substitutable for a country like Sri Lanka, which has a comparative advantage in low-tech manufacturing and a significant labour force in agriculture, import substitution might happen even without a policy intent.
The quantitative analysis identified eight waves of import controls, which tightened over time and increased in coverage. The government’s targeting of food products, consumption goods, and less complex items was not always successful, particularly in the later waves of import controls. This can be attributed to a shrinking choice set available as control measures progressed. In some import control waves, the government extended import controls to encompass more intermediate and capital goods.
The process of import substitution typically follows a sequential pattern, starting with substituting easily replaceable products before moving on to more complex ones. Therefore, irrespective of the policy objective, the distortions introduced to the incentive structure align with observations from import substitution scenarios seen in countries like Sri Lanka.
Recommendations for Prioritising Import Control Revisions
As Sri Lanka gradually eases the import controls implemented during the economic crisis, it becomes crucial to prioritise the revision process. The deciding factors may be influenced by lobbying from industries reliant on restricted imports and feedback from industry and consumers. Our analysis suggests that revisions appear to prioritise intermediate and exempted food products, reflecting a policy preference for exempting intermediate imports .
To foster innovation and enable participation in global value chains, it is economically sensible to phase out import controls on intermediate goods. However, revisions should also target consumption goods, including food. Import controls inflate domestic prices, leading to the production of less complex consumer goods and food items for domestic consumption. This diverts resources away from export industries, impeding the country’s growth in the vital export sector.
To be Continued
The government’s proposal to raise fines on manufacturers of substandard plastic products to as much as Rs. 1 million is expected to trigger a major compliance shift within Sri Lanka’s plastics industry, correcting long-standing market distortions caused by weak enforcement.
Environment Deputy Minister Anton Jayakody said the move targets producers who continue to bypass approved standards, undercutting compliant manufacturers and exacerbating environmental damage.
Environment Ministry Advisor Dr. Ravindra Kariyawasam said the initiative represents a structural market correction rather than a purely environmental intervention.
“Non-compliant producers have enjoyed an artificial cost advantage for years, distorting pricing and discouraging legitimate investment,” Kariyawasam told The Island Financial Review. “Meaningful penalties are essential to restore fairness and industry discipline.”
He said the widespread circulation of low-grade plastic products has eroded consumer confidence and delayed the sector’s transition towards higher-value and sustainable manufacturing.
Industry analysts note that a Rs. 1 million fine would significantly alter risk calculations for marginal operators, forcing upgrades in machinery, testing and compliance or pushing weaker players out of the market.
Kariyawasam stressed that the policy is intended to support responsible businesses rather than suppress industry growth.
“Manufacturers investing in recycling, biodegradable alternatives and quality assurance should not be penalised by competing with environmentally damaging, low-cost products,” he said.
The Deputy Minister indicated that tighter enforcement will be paired with policy support for sustainable packaging and circular-economy initiatives, aligning the sector with emerging global trade and environmental standards.
From a business perspective, the proposed regulation is likely to impact pricing, supply chains and capital investment decisions, while improving the long-term credibility of Sri Lanka’s plastics industry in both domestic and export markets.
By Ifham Nizam
First Capital Holdings PLC (the Group), a subsidiary of JXG (Janashakthi Group) and a pioneering force in Sri Lanka’s investment landscape, is set to host the 12th edition of its renowned ‘First Capital Investor Symposium’ on 22 January 2026 at Cinnamon Life Colombo, starting from 5.30 pm onwards.
The 12th Edition will focus on Sri Lanka’s Economic Outlook for 2026, offering attendees a comprehensive analysis of market forecasts, investment strategies and emerging opportunities in the capital markets. The symposium serves as a crucial gathering for investors seeking insights to navigate the evolving economic landscape and make sound, strategic decisions.
As a leading investment institution, First Capital remains committed to promoting informed decision-making through comprehensive research and market analysis. By hosting this annual symposium, the organisation reinforces its role as a trusted partner in Sri Lanka’s capital markets, providing a premier platform for investors, professionals, and industry leaders to exchange knowledge, explore opportunities and build meaningful connections.
A key highlight of this year’s agenda will be First Capital’s presentation on the Economic and Investment Outlook, outlining market conditions and investment strategies for the period ahead. The presentation will be delivered by Ranjan Ranatunga, Assistant Vice President – Research of First Capital Holdings PLC.
Oxfam in Asia commenced the Rivers, Rights, Resilience Forum (RRRF) 2026, a three-day regional forum bringing together water experts, policymakers, civil society, researchers, and community leaders from across South Asia and beyond to strengthen cooperation on shared river systems and climate resilience.
The Forum is part of the Transboundary Rivers of South Asia (TROSA) programme, supported by the Government of Sweden, which works on the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) river basins, while also encouraging cross-basin learning at the regional and global levels. This year’s theme is “Building Resilient Communities and Ecosystems.” The Forum is co-organised by Oxfam in Asia and Dev Pro, Sri Lanka.
The forum opened with a welcome address by John Samuel, Regional Director, Oxfam in Asia, who highlighted the deep connection between rivers, politics, climate change, and sustainability. He underlined how rivers shape both environmental and social outcomes across South Asia and called for stronger collaboration between governments and civil society.
“Today building resilience is important in terms of climate and politics, and when civic space is shrinking, we should all work in solidarity,” he said.
Speaking at the Forum, Chamindry Saparamadu, Executive Director of DevPro shared examples of how communities in Sri Lanka have taken actions to ensure equitable access to water resources through catchment protection initiatives, community-based water societies etc. She further highlighted that learning exchanges would be useful to further strengthen inter-provincial water governance in Sri Lanka.
The Chief Guest, Syeda Rizwana Hasan, Advisor, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Ministry of Water Resources, Bangladesh, in her video message, emphasised the need for regional cooperation among South Asian countries beyond the upstream–downstream identity.
“Climate change will make water scarce, so South Asian countries have to come together to work on the common interest of their communities. Rivers are not just ecology but economics as well for communities. Forums like this help us to share our experience and learn from each other,” she said.
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