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German cabinet tries to solve ‘no-debt’ crisis after court outlaws budget

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Instead of travelling to Dubai, Economy and Climate minister Robert Habeck (L) is having to stay and sort out the budget crisis (pic BBC)

You know it’s a crisis when Germany’s Green vice chancellor cancels attending a climate summit.

Robert Habeck, who’s also economy minister, was supposed to be at the COP28 summit this week in Dubai. Instead, he is in Berlin, wrangling with coalition partners over an emergency agreement for next year’s budget. 

The crisis exploded on 15 November, when Germany’s constitutional court declared that the government’s budget was illegal for breaking German laws against taking on new debt.

That left a hole of tens of billions of euros.

Now the government has just a few days to come up with a solution, if it wants to pass the 2024 national budget before 1 January without emergency sittings.

On Wednesday (06) Germany’s cabinet meets for the last time this year. A revised budget would have to be put to parliament in next week’s final sessions before Christmas, so ministers should agree this week on how to balance next year’s budget, while sticking to the law.

This is not so much a debt crisis, as an anti-debt crisis. A German law, knowns as the “debt brake“, limits the amount of new borrowing the government is allowed to take on.

The law is enshrined in the constitution since Chancellor Angela Merkel introduced it in 2009 and is a matter of faith for conservatives, who brought the case to the courts.

So it was a coup for the conservative opposition when three weeks ago judges ruled that Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning government was breaking this law.

Balancing Germany’s budget is a feature of German politics, and is known as the schwarze Null, or black zero. It limits a government’s budget deficit to 0.35% of economic output.

Exceptions are allowed in national emergencies, such as the Covid pandemic. The government had planned to use emergency debt left over from the pandemic, to spend on Germany’s shift to green energy instead. Germany’s constitutional court has declared this wheeze illegal.

That leaves an estimated shortfall of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn) for 2023, and €17bn for 2024.

For the current year the government has decided to get round the “debt brake” by declaring 2023 an emergency year, because of the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although this may also be challenged in the courts.

But so far, it’s not clear what Mr Scholz is proposing for 2024.

A much-anticipated parliamentary speech by the German chancellor last week did nothing to clarify that. His main message was: Trust me, we have a plan. He also repeated his mantra in German-accented English that “you’ll never walk alone”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during a visit at the BMW Group plant in Munich, Germany, December 5, 2023
The German chancellor is holding talks with his Green and liberal coalition partners (pic BBC)

Behind the scenes the three coalition parties have spent the last few days in late-night meetings scrambling to reach an agreement. German commentators can only guess at who is negotiating what, based on which government building has the lights on late at night.

Broadly speaking the only solutions are tax rises, spending cuts or more debt. But these are three very different parties, with conflicting views over borrowing and spending.

The business-friendly small-state liberal FDP, which runs the finance ministry and holds the purse strings, is ideologically opposed to higher taxes and obsessed with keeping the “debt brake”.

Chancellor Scholz’s centre-left SPD meanwhile refuses to roll back a promised increase on social spending, and the Greens are determined to boost investment in Germany’s transition to renewables.

An uncomfortable coalition at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

Until now the cracks have been papered over by throwing money at causes important for each party.

But all three are doing badly in the polls and have been punished in recent regional elections, making party members unruly and party leaders less open to compromise. The main reason that a compromise looks possible is that poor poll numbers mean there’s no appetite within the government for fresh elections.

Green ambitions to soften the “debt brake” will be difficult to agree in parliament because this needs a two-thirds majority.

Opposition conservatives smell blood, so are in no mood to compromise, and even liberal coalition partners may not agree. But Robert Habeck is rumoured to be planning to get round borrowing rules by arguing for an exemption for crucial future infrastructure.

Either way, the coalition may still find a way to spend money on what’s important to each party, just less of it.

(BBC)



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New Zealand to introduce bill for under-16s social media ban

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The proposed ban would apply to platforms like Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok [BBC]

New Zealand is to introduce a bill seeking to ban under-16s from using social media.

Under the latest proposals, platforms including TikTok, Instagram, Snapchat and Facebook, will have to take steps to check users are over 16 and platforms that fail to meet their obligations could face fines of up to 10% of their global revenue.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said social media was exposing children to “harmful content, addictive technology and pressures they are not equipped to deal with”. But several political parties have said they will vote against the bill.

The move follows a similar ban in Australia, while countries including the UK and Greece are set to introduce restrictions next year.

Luxon said social media was affecting children’s family life, mental health, sleep and education.

“We have protections to keep children safe in the real world and we need them in the virtual world too,” he said.

New Zealand’s government has not outlined which other “high risk” platforms could be impacted.

A statement said that under the Online Safety Bill, which is being introduced to parliament on Monday, social media companies would be required to “take reasonable steps” to check users are over the age of 16 by using methods including existing account information, facial age estimation and digital identity checks.

Platforms regularly used by children would also be required to regularly assess the risks they pose and report on how they are being identified and reduced.

No penalties are proposed for children, parents or caregivers for breaches of the ban, but fines for social media companies could be substantially higher than in Australia, where the maximum penalty is $99m.

It is unclear if the bill will get enough votes to pass however, after both the Act and New Zealand First (NZF) parties – which are coalition partners in the government – said they would oppose it.

David Seymour, New Zealand’s deputy prime minister and leader of Act, said the ban would not work.

Foreign affairs minister Winston Peters, who leads the NZF party, said: “We have been concerned with the proposed legislation and the direction and slippery slope that legislation like this will inevitably take our country.”

Peters also described a ban introduced in Australia in December as a “colossal failure”.

The ban has been difficult for Australia to enforce, and it has been widely acknowledged that many children under the age of 16 have still been able to access and use banned apps.

Earlier this month, France’s top court struck down a similar proposed social media ban, saying it infringed upon freedom of expression.

[BBC]

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Fourteen killed in strike on Myanmar monastery

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The monastery said to have been targeted in the village of Chhay Hoe O [BBC]

Fourteen people were killed in military air strikes at a monastery in Myanmar early on Friday, opposition fighters and a local rescue worker have said.

All of those killed were elderly and a number of monks were also injured, the rescue worker told BBC Burmese, adding that the site was struck twice.

The attack happened at around 09:00 local time (02:30 GMT) in Myaung township in the central Sagaing region, some 70km (47 miles) west of Mandalay, the news agency AFP reported.

Civilians had reportedly gathered at the site for a meditation retreat to mark Buddhist Lent. Myanmar’s military has not commented.

Nway Oo Myaung, a pro-democracy rebel, told AFP that the victims included 11 men and three women. Five of the victims were said to be from one village, while the remaining nine were from a neighbouring township.

“Older people had entered the meditation centres,” Myaung added, saying the dead were aged between 50 and 70.

A second, unnamed opposition fighter said he had been among those searching for survivors of the attacks.

“While we were trying to rescue people, the aircraft came to bomb a second time,” he said.

Myanmar has been locked in civil war since the military staged a 2021 coup ousting Aung San Suu Kyi, and has been under martial rule since. The military, which is frequently accused of carrying out strikes on public buildings, has previously said it only strikes legitimate targets.

[BBC]

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‘It was a tsunami’: Floods leave death trail in India’s Assam

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Debiram Panika holding a phone with a photo of his wife and daughter, who were killed in the floods in Assam, India, seconds after he last spoke to them [Al Jazeera]

Debiram Panika, a 37-year-old daily wage labourer from northeastern India’s Assam state, would speak to his wife and two daughters on video calls every day from Dimapur, a town in neighbouring Nagaland state where he worked.

But when his phone rang at about 11am on July 19, there was panic in the voice of his 30-year-old wife, Dipika

“I could only see my wife telling me on the video call, ‘This is it for us. We are going to die,’ before the call was disconnected,” Panika recalled, speaking to Al Jazeera.

It was the last time they spoke. Moments later, rising waters from the nearby Dikhow River, which snakes past their village in Assam’s Sivasagar district, surged into their bamboo-and-mud home with a ferocious current and swept away Dipika and four-year-old daughter Radhika.

“The water came flooding like sea waves, and they were gone in a flash,” Panika said, as he stood in front of the ruined home he has since returned to.

Sivasagar is part of the eastern Assam region, also referred to as Upper Assam. Incessant rains between July 18 and July 20 submerged the region and the neighbouring Naga Hills of Nagaland.

Monsoon floods usually impact northern and western Assam, and parts of central Assam, the worst. But several Nagaland districts bordering Upper Assam received heavy rainfall on those three days, leading to dozens of landslides. This intense run-off swelled Naga Hills-origin rivers and caused devastation downstream.

The resultant floods killed more than 100 people, destroyed 2,700 villages, and displaced 700,000 people across the state. The state government says 1.2 million people were impacted in all, their lives disrupted.

Most waters have since receded, but Radhika’s body is yet to be found.

“I look for Radhika every day in the bushes, tirelessly,” Panika said, holding back his tears. “Her last words, calling me ‘Papa’, are still reverberating in my ears.”

Panika’s other daughter, Ridhika, 10, was at a relative’s place a few metres away when her mother and sister were swept away by the flood. Ridhika held onto a bamboo bush and was later rescued by locals.

A car buried in silt in front of a home affected by floodwater in Sivasagar in India's Assam [Arshad Ahmed/Al Jazeera]
A car buried in silt in front of a home affected by floodwater in Sivasagar in India’s Assam [Al Jazeera]

‘Apocalyptic event’

Several riverine villages in Sivasagar have been wrecked by debris carried down by the waters of the Dikhow from the surrounding Naga Hills.

Tens of thousands of tree trunks lie piled up in places that used to be homes, as lush rice fields, the main source of livelihood, have been washed away.

Kukil Das, a 30-year-old Facebook vlogger in Debiram’s village of Nepali Khuti, told Al Jazeera that “the torrent of the flood was like an apocalyptic event seen in the movies.

“Trees as tall as 30 to 40 metres (100-130ft) came down from the hills, flooding the river, and wiped out everything as they crashed against our homes,” he said. “There is no home left. It was a tsunami.”

Das and his friend Shravan Prasad, from the neighbouring Bihubor village, said they saved at least 1,000 lives by using boats the two villages had at that time.

“We put together a group of friends with the seven boats and started rescuing people turn by turn for two days and nights without food and water,” Prasad said.

Das said the floods forced residents to take shelter on the roofs of concrete homes they could find, as cries for help and the sounds of the river washing away homes echoed in the neighbourhood.

Laxmi Sharma, who owned one such concrete house, said she provided shelter to at least 60 people on her terrace after the river water gushed into Nepali Khuti.

“People ran towards the roof of my building. We thought we were going to die,” Sharma, 46, told Al Jazeera. “But it is a miracle that we are still alive even though my house was barely out of water.”

Not everyone could escape the flood’s wrath, though.

In Sivasagar’s Simaluguri village, two friends – Reihana Ahmed, a Muslim, and Ratul Swarna, a Hindu, both in their 30s – were swept away in the torrent.

When Ahmed, a mother of two, was drowning as the deluge entered her village, Swarna, who did not know how to swim, jumped to save her without thinking about his life.

The two friends were later found dead in the paddy fields. “It was humanity that won in a disaster like this,” Ahmed’s husband Aminul Haque said with a sorrowful smile.

Asor Ali, 75, in Prajabasti, a flood-affected village in Assam, India [Arshad Ahmad/Al Jazeera]
Asor Ali, 75, in Prajabasti, a flood-affected village in Assam, India [Al Jazeera]

‘Human-made flood’

Besides the eroding banks of the Dikhow River in Prajabasti, another flood-affected village, 75-year-old Asor Ali sat in disbelief next to his wife, Jamila Khatun.

“Even the generations preceding me have not seen a flood like this,” he said, staring at the flowing river. “Even the 1950s earthquake that triggered the floods here did not do so much damage.”

A magnitude 8.6 earthquake hit Assam and Tibet across the border in 1950, altering the region’s riverine system. Nearly 5,000 people died. Since then, Assam has witnessed frequent floods, which intensify during the monsoons, says Mirza Zulfiqur Rahman, a researcher on the basin of the Brahmaputra, the region’s major river: The Naga Hills rivers that flooded Upper Assam are its tributaries.

But residents say this year’s deadly deluge is not just a natural phenomenon.

Biren Gogoi, 43, says rampant stone and sand mining in regional rivers, coupled with aggressive deforestation and coal extraction in Nagaland’s Mon district, triggered the devastation.

Global Nature Watch, an open-source online platform that provides real-time data on deforestation across the world, showed that Nagaland lost 14 percent of its tree cover between 2002 and 2025, with Mon district bordering Assam’s Sivasagar being the most affected.

According to the latest report published in 2023 by the Forest Survey of India, Nagaland has lost about 794.88 square kilometres (306.9 square miles) of forest cover between 2013 and 2023.

Al Jazeera travelled along the Assam-Nagaland border and saw signs of deforestation on the hills and mining activities in both the states. Satellite images also confirmed rampant coal mining in Nagaland’s Mon district, and stone mining crushers on Assam’s side, especially in Bihubor, one of the epicentres of the Assam flood.

While Mon’s Deputy Commissioner Wennyei Konyak acknowledged the possibility of illegal mining in the district, he added that the land was protected under Indian laws to uphold the rights of Indigenous tribes, and therefore government interference in the area was limited.

“I would not blame mining activities for the flood. It was just the wrath of nature,” he told Al Jazeera.

But experts and political leaders in Assam say mining played a direct role in the floods.

Debabrata Saikia of the opposition Congress party, who is a former legislator from Sivasagar constituency, accused Assam’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of allowing illegal excavations for stone and sand on the Dikhow riverbank, resulting in a cratered wasteland that worsened the floods.

“This unchecked plundering of riverbeds and hills under the ruling government has engineered this into a man-made disaster,” Saikia told Al Jazeera.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, however, rejected the allegation on August 4, blaming excessive rainfall in Nagaland for triggering the Upper Assam deluge. On August 14, Ranoj Pegu, a cabinet minister in the state’s BJP government, blamed erratic rainfall due to climate change for the deluge.

Rahman, the Brahmaputra river basin researcher, believes that while the climate crisis played a role, the flood was “purely human-made”, caused by the fracturing of the landscape.

“Even the generations preceding me have not seen a flood like this,” he said, staring at the flowing river. “Even the 1950s earthquake that triggered the floods here did not do so much damage.”

A magnitude 8.6 earthquake hit Assam and Tibet across the border in 1950, altering the region’s riverine system. Nearly 5,000 people died. Since then, Assam has witnessed frequent floods, which intensify during the monsoons, says Mirza Zulfiqur Rahman, a researcher on the basin of the Brahmaputra, the region’s major river: The Naga Hills rivers that flooded Upper Assam are its tributaries.

But residents say this year’s deadly deluge is not just a natural phenomenon.

Biren Gogoi, 43, says rampant stone and sand mining in regional rivers, coupled with aggressive deforestation and coal extraction in Nagaland’s Mon district, triggered the devastation.

Global Nature Watch, an open-source online platform that provides real-time data on deforestation across the world, showed that Nagaland lost 14 percent of its tree cover between 2002 and 2025, with Mon district bordering Assam’s Sivasagar being the most affected.

According to the latest report published in 2023 by the Forest Survey of India, Nagaland has lost about 794.88 square kilometres (306.9 square miles) of forest cover between 2013 and 2023.

Al Jazeera travelled along the Assam-Nagaland border and saw signs of deforestation on the hills and mining activities in both the states. Satellite images also confirmed rampant coal mining in Nagaland’s Mon district, and stone mining crushers on Assam’s side, especially in Bihubor, one of the epicentres of the Assam flood.

While Mon’s Deputy Commissioner Wennyei Konyak acknowledged the possibility of illegal mining in the district, he added that the land was protected under Indian laws to uphold the rights of Indigenous tribes, and therefore government interference in the area was limited.

“I would not blame mining activities for the flood. It was just the wrath of nature,” he told Al Jazeera.

But experts and political leaders in Assam say mining played a direct role in the floods.

Debabrata Saikia of the opposition Congress party, who is a former legislator from Sivasagar constituency, accused Assam’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of allowing illegal excavations for stone and sand on the Dikhow riverbank, resulting in a cratered wasteland that worsened the floods.

“This unchecked plundering of riverbeds and hills under the ruling government has engineered this into a man-made disaster,” Saikia told Al Jazeera.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, however, rejected the allegation on August 4, blaming excessive rainfall in Nagaland for triggering the Upper Assam deluge. On August 14, Ranoj Pegu, a cabinet minister in the state’s BJP government, blamed erratic rainfall due to climate change for the deluge.

Rahman, the Brahmaputra river basin researcher, believes that while the climate crisis played a role, the flood was “purely human-made”, caused by the fracturing of the landscape.

(Aljazeera)

 

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