General election:NPP on a tricky wicket

The following are the key issues that have to be dealt with, regardless of the outcome of tomorrow’s parliamentary election:

* Restoration of the national economy in line with the IMF programme agreed by the previous government. None of the political parties, represented in the last Parliament, including the JVP, voted against the much discussed Economic Transformation Bill approved in terms of the agreement with the IMF

* Foreign policy challenges as China and the US sought to influence the government of the day.

* Accountability investigation led by Geneva-based UNHRC at the behest of the US-UK combine

* A new Constitution that reflected the post-war developments.

*Effective measures to rein in political parties.

* And, finally, consensus on response to terrorism. Those who had been found guilty by courts for acts of terrorism should never be referred to as ‘political prisoners. President AKD caused himself and the country much harm when he declared in the north that ‘political prisoners’ would be released.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), having raised expectations about National People’s Power (NPP) in the eyes of the public as never before by coming to power claiming to be holier than all previous administrations dubbed by them to have been corrupt to the core, now faces the daunting task of securing a simple majority in Parliament at the General Election tomorrow (14), with feet of clay as shown by some of their recent decisions.

In spite of repeated vows, since the Presidential Election, to fill the next Parliament with members of the National People’s Power (NPP), the ruling party won’t find that objective easy to achieve as already reflected in the recent Elpitiya Pradeshiya Sabha poll held after the Presidential Election that it secured. It clearly showed that there is no groundswell of support for NPP despite it emerging the winner at the important Presidential Election as is the usual case with Lankan voters in the past.

Such NPP rhetoric won’t change the situation on the ground as AKD polled 5,634,915 (42.31 %) votes at the Presidential Election, very much less than the combined Opposition. Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) leader Sajith Premadasa (SP), independent candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) candidate Namal Rajapaksa (NR) polled 4,363,035, 2,299,767 and 342,781, votes respectively.

The bottom line is that together they had polled 7,005,583 votes – in other words 1,370,668 votes more than AKD. That is the ground reality. The above figures do not include preferences received by AKD and SP at the presidential poll.

The issue at hand is whether AKD, the leader of the NPP and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), can now attract a substantial number of those who hadn’t exercised their franchise for him at the presidential poll. Of 17,140,354 eligible to vote, only 13,619,916 (79.46%) exercised their franchise whereas a staggering 3,820,738 didn’t turn up to vote.

Contesting political parties shouldn’t also ignore the fact that the total valid votes polled was 13,319,616 (97.8 %), therefore the rejected number of votes was 300,300 (2.2 %).

AKD should be wary of the unprecedented challenge, particularly because his government hadn’t been able to impress the electorate, especially those who didn’t exercise their franchise at the Sept. 21 election.

The possibility of the NPP falling just short of a simple majority (113 out of 225 seats), too, cannot be ruled out in spite of the party putting on a brave face with countrywide political rallies with hardly any such mass gatherings by the Opposition rivals.

NPP’s much touted stand that it wouldn’t, under any circumstances, accommodate the SJB, the New Democratic Front (NDF) comprising a group of ex-rebel SLPP lawmakers, and the UNP, as well as the SLPP, may compel AKD to reach a consensus with those elected from the Northern and Eastern provinces.

Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU) leader and Sarvajana Balaya Colombo District candidate Udaya Gammanpila’s declaration that Illankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi’s (ITAK) M.A. Sumanthiran, PC, would be the NPP’s Foreign Minister cannot be dismissed. Former Minister Gammanpila also claimed that the NPP and ITAK reached an agreement on a federal structure for the Northern and Eastern provinces in line with their overall arrangement. Jaffna district ITAK’s Sumanthiran flatly denied Attorney-at-Law Gammanpila’s allegation when the writer sought his response.

Against the backdrop of the breaking up of the once ITAK-led Tamil National Alliance (TNA), despite all the bravado about its impending successful electoral outcome, the ITAK may not be able to even secure 10 seats that the grouping garnered at the last parliamentary election. ITAK shouldn’t underestimate the challenge posed by Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA) consisting of fractured TELO, PLOTE and EPRLF. Previously known as Tamil Democratic National Alliance (TDNA), DTNA knows the danger of a sharp split in the Tamil vote. (Let me correct the wrong declaration that the DTNA had been formed in the late ’80s in last week’s midweek piece ‘The General election: The Northern vote’. A former Tamil speaking colleague of mine pointed out the writer’s fault.).

In fact, TELO and PLOTE had no option but to resurrect TDNA last year after ITAK decided to terminate the partnership put together by Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

The EPRLF and some other interested groups joined the DTNA. ITAK is taking a huge risk at the General Election with its elitist face as the bulk of the population in the North and East are said to be those belonging to so-called lower castes (non Vellala). The former Federal Party may end up losing its predominant position in the Northern and Eastern regions since the 2004 General Election when the ITAK-led TNA secured 22 seats with the backing of the LTTE, which included Tigers stuffing ballot boxes on their behalf as was witnessed by none other than EU election monitors. Since then at every general election, the TNA obtained the highest number of seats in the N&E. At the 2010 parliamentary election the TNA won 14 seats, followed by 16 in 2015 and 10 in 2020. The ITAK’s gamble may not pay off.

Both ITAK and DTNA realize that the Tamils may fail to secure at least one seat in the strategically important Trincomalee district. Even the Roman Catholic clergy intervened to pave the way for ITAK and DTNA to submit a joint nomination list for the Trincomalee district where a sharp division of Tamil votes could prevent the community from securing one of the four seats available.

Sumanthiran backs partnership with NPP

During the AKD-led parliamentary election campaign, the NPP repeatedly declared its intention to work with Tamil lawmakers. In spite of Sumanthiran’s categorical denial, the former lawmaker declared his readiness to accept a ministerial position during a meeting with Jaffna-based journalists. The senior lawyer didn’t mince his words when he emphasized the responsibility on the part of his party to consider partnership with the NPP.

This is how Sumanthiran responded to a query regarding future NPP-ITAK partnership raised at the Jaffna Press Club recently. Sumanthiran was asked what they would do if he or members of his party were invited to take up ministerial positions under a government of NPP.

Sumanthiran (verbatim): “That was the expectation of the people at most of the meetings I attended. There was an opinion in recent times that ministerial positions must not be taken. There was also an opinion that we must not join the central government until a permanent political solution is given. But that is not the policy of the party. In 1965 members of our party held ministerial positions. The situation changes with time. Therefore, my opinion is that if we get such an offer, it must be considered. There are photographs of us marching in Jaffna with Anura Kumara Dissanayake, while wearing red sashes on a May Day six years ago. However, we do not take photographs with him targeting ministerial positions. When an effective programme is presented we must move forward together. Our party will not engage in such actions for the sake of positions. We can discuss with them and seek solutions to fulfil fundamental needs of our people, including a political solution. At the same time, we hope to work together to combat fraud and corruption. Even today I am appearing as his counsel in cases filed by that party against fraud and corruption. Therefore, we do not hold different opinions on these matters.”

Among the DTNA candidates are several ex-LTTE combatants though the ITAK-led TNA never accommodated any former fighters. In fact, ITAK wouldn’t have a truck with even TELO, PLOTE and EPRLF, one-time India-sponsored terrorist groups if not for the LTTE’s directive that they contest under one symbol in line with its overall political-military strategy.

Although two prominent ex-eastern LTTE cadres, who fell out with it, namely Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan aka Karuna, and Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pilleyan of Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP), served as lawmakers the duo never received the respect they sought. Both are in the fray in the eastern Batticaloa district from different political parties.

EPDP Douglas Devananda, who has served several governments as a Minister, has already declared his support for the future NPP government. Having met AKD, Devananda assured the public that he would be delighted to accept a ministerial portfolio. However, the NPP declared in Jaffna that Devananda wouldn’t be accommodated in their Cabinet.

Several readers, including my colleague, found fault with me for asserting that all contesting political parties, without exception, are careful not to condemn the LTTE in any way. They pointed out that Devananda, who had been high on the LTTE hit list and was fortunate to survive a spate of assassination attempts, remained a strong critic of the group until the successful conclusion of the war.

My colleague also queried the assertion that the ITAK may perform better sans nominees of former terrorist groups. He raised the following issues:

* Are you suggesting PLOTE leader Dharmalingam Siddarthan, who is contesting the Jaffna district on the DTNA ticket, should be considered as a former ‘terrorist’?

* Such an assertion could be ironic as some Tamil ‘nationalist’ elements/ITAK/TNPF, etc., have accused the PLOTE of collaborating with the military during the war.

* In fact, Siddarthan, a son of ex-Jaffna district MP Visvanather Dharmalingam, killed by TELO in 1985, is widely believed to have backed Mahinda Rajapaksa’s 2005 Presidential Election campaign.

The writer is in touch with Siddarthan since 1990 and never considered him a terrorist though his role in a terrorist group cannot be denied. Siddarthan had been with the PLOTE at the time the group made an abortive bid to assassinate Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in Nov. 1988.

In the last Parliament, five Tamil political parties altogether had 16 seats. Would Tamil parties be able to do better at the 2024 General Election? Twenty-nine MPs are elected from Jaffna (07), Vanni (06), Batticaloa (05), Digamadulla (07) and Trincomalee (04). Obtaining the same number of seats would be a huge challenge. In spite of the NPP leader being the President of the country, his party may not do well in the Northern and Eastern regions.

It would be pertinent to mention that Ariyanethiran Pakkiyaselvam, who contested the recently concluded Presidential Election, is backing ITAK candidates. The former TNA MP (2004-2015) polled 226,343 votes (1.70%) as he couldn’t secure the backing of ITAK. Sajith Premadasa, however, secured Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla and Trincomalee electoral districts with ITAK’s backing.

In spite of the belief that Pakkiyaselvam had the backing of the LTTE rump, and the Tamil Diaspora, he couldn’t win at least the Jaffna electoral district, whereas SP emerged victorious with a slight margin. The votes received by AKD in the N&E electorates were negligible, except Digamadulla where he polled 100,000. However, AKD’s party stands to do better at the General Election now as the President.

A controversial appointment

Perhaps, the decision on the part of the government not to reduce the price of Octane 92 (current price Rest 311), auto diesel (Rest 283) and kerosene (Rs 183) when the latest revision was effected on Oct 31 may have dismayed those who voted for AKD at the Presidential Plection.

Having accused successive governments of unfairly taxing fuel imports, thereby robbing the people, in addition to corruption, the NPP struggled to explain why Octane 92, auto diesel and kerosene couldn’t be substantially reduced.

The Opposition questioned the rationale in reducing the price of a high end litre of Octane 95 and super diesel by Rs 6 each when those struggling to make ends meet couldn’t be provided any such relief.

The JVP-led NPP shouldn’t forget that 5.7 mn voters who exercised their franchise in support of AKD, less than two months ago, are not card carrying members of the ruling party or its leading partner. Therefore, the government cannot, under any circumstances, antagonize the electorate ahead of the General Election. If the Octane 92 and auto diesel cannot be reduced, under the present circumstances, all those who had accused successive governments of unfair taxation owed the public an explanation.

Having campaigned relentlessly on an anti-corruption platform, the NPP shouldn’t take unnecessary risk by making controversial appointments. The appointment of a JVP trade union activist D.A. Rajakaruna as the Chairperson of the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC/CEYPETCO) attracted media attention in the wake of the latest fuel price revision. That wouldn’t have happened if Rajakaruna, who had served as the Manager of the Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminals Limited’s Muthurajawela Terminal years ago, didn’t appear before the media to defend the government decision not to reduce Octane 92 and auto diesel prices.

Convener of United Trade Union Alliance (UTUA) Ananda Pallitha recently questioned the appointment of a person whose integrity had been questioned as Chairman of a vital state enterprise after being accused of corruption. Rajakaruna’s media briefing was nothing but a fiasco. The JVPer simply couldn’t handle the media as journalists fired a spate of questions as the man was caught lying. As a longstanding employee of the CPC, Rajakaruna couldn’t have side-stepped the issues raised, after having been so critical of previous administrations.

The NPP cannot afford to make appointments to appease long standing party men. Previous governments have paid a huge price for accommodating alleged wrongdoers in key positions. This issue can cause friction among the NPPers.

The government has pathetically failed to explain why prices of Octane 92 and auto diesel couldn’t be reduced against the backdrop of its repeated allegations regarding the entire pricing process being corrupt.

The electorate will give its verdict tomorrow. Make no mistake, no political party can take things for granted, especially in the backdrop of Aragalaya two years ago that caused so much mayhem and that helped NPP stock to go up as never before by playing a Mr. Clean image. The NPP seems to have caused itself irreparable damage ahead of the General Election.

The sudden disclosure of the NPP government plan to shut down the state-owned Thriposha Company can also have a detrimental impact on the government. Such a course of action will lead to further deterioration of the nutritional intake of many already malnourished Lankan children.

FSP Education Secretary and Colombo District Jana Aragala Sandhanaya candidate Pubudu Jayagoda declared the closure would benefit private sector cereal manufacturers, an extremely serious accusation. The government remained silent as it couldn’t have explained the issuance of the Gazette Notification No. 2403/53 dated 27 September 2024 that dealt with the proposed abolition of the Thriposha Company.

The handling of fuel price revision and the proposed closure of the Thriposha Company that met 100% of the demand (free supply to the needy), since 2016, and also catered to the private market, dominated the media over the past few days. The two issues will have far more impact on the electorate than the arrest of former State Minister Lohan Ratwatte and his wife Shashi Prabha remanded till Nov. 18 on a charge of using an illegally assembled vehicle, investigation into former State Minister Sujeewa Senasinghe using an illegally assembled super luxury vehicle, the much-touted investigation into the 2019 Easter Sunday carnage and depriving former Presidents and an ex-President’s widow of various privileges.

Having overwhelmed SP, RW and NR at the Presidential Election just weeks ago, the NPP seems to be on a tricky wicket. Contrary to perception among some, the General Election is not going to be a cakewalk for the government.