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From Delta to Omicron: Will there be a tsunami of patients?

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Dr. Pradeep Kariyawasam
Former Epidemiologist/Chief Medical Officer of Health
Colombo Municipal Council

All over the world the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus has been replaced by the Omicron variant. It is happening in Sri Lanka, too, according to reports issued by the Ministry of Health recently. At present it is said that between 60-90% of patients found in various parts of the country have been infected with Omicron. The percentages are higher in the cities than in the suburbs. This is because the population densities are higher in the cities and the it is easily transmitted from one person to another. The other aspect is the transmissibility of the variants, and it is said that the Omicron variant has a 1.5 times higher transmissibility rate than the Delta variant. I believe that the change from Delta to Omicron took place as there were hundreds of thousands of people infected with Delta virus and the chance of creation of mutations increased with time. Omicron has a higher transmission rate and there could be many more variants that we have to face with and already a sub-variant has surfaced.

The changeover to Omicron has happened but the numbers are low because we don’t have enough facilities to do genomic sequencing to identify the variants. It is only the Sri Jayewardenepura University that has such facilities and not even the MRI seem to be having a facility to do these investigations. This is a wake-up call to our policymakers to have proper laboratories in the country and that is to have at least one laboratory each in the North, South and Central provinces. The Western Province could be covered by the Sri Jayewardenepura University laboratory. It is a pity that no one seems to care to improve the facilities at their own laboratories. I remember meeting Prof. Sirimali Fernando the architect of this Sri Jayewardenepura university Immunology and Molecular Medicine Unit around 15 years ago when she came to see me with Professor Malavige, then a lecturer, most probably, to tell me that the dengue virus had changed to D-3 and that an epidemic was imminent as people didn’t have immunity against the D-3 virus. What I understood was that the Ministry of Health or the Epidemiology Unit were not interested in that and someone had told them to tell me. I took that seriously and started to carry out prevention and control measures. I started to improve laboratory facilities and we had a top-class laboratory then carrying out 53 types of investigations, basically helping the urban poor to get costly laboratory tests done free of charge. We were the first government laboratory to have NS1 test to identify dengue infections. Today, sad to say our laboratory network at the CMC is almost non-existent and there in no proper City Microbiologist in place and the City Analyst unit, too, was without work and hardly any work was done under the Food Act. It is interesting to note that the City Microbiological Laboratory staff are not at all involved in PCR or antigen testing when there is a global epidemic taking place, although it is a Public Health Laboratory where the plague carrier, a flea, was identified around 1918. In the past few years, it had been a difficult task to even get the much-needed chemicals to run the laboratories. The testing of food and water was stopped while such work in other cities and countries in the world are improving. We are going backwards in laboratory investigations, the regulatory work has suffered immensely, and I think we were better off 50 years ago compared with the situation in those countries then. So, forget about finding new variants on time and taking preventive measures like in advanced and not so advanced countries, as we cannot even run a normal laboratory today and provide the needed information to the patients as well as the authorities.

It is a known fact that hospitalisations and visits to clinics by patients amount to only 10% of the total number of patients suffering from a communicable disease. So, when we say there are 1185 patients on a single day now that means our daily total could be as much as 11800! This figure could be more as many of the patients don’t have symptoms as in any other communicable diseases. When one analyses the figures given out by the Ministry of Ministry of Health daily there is an increase of 5-10% of patients and therefore It is obvious that Omicron is in the community and is spreading rapidly. The hospital beds are full and ICU units are running almost at full capacity. Although Omicron is not a killer as such, compared with the Delta variant, the numbers are high and it seems those not vaccinated with the three doses that the government provided free of charge are the ones who have got the full-blown disease. The deaths due to Covid are also climbing slowly and silently and it is expected that by March we will have a break or make situation. Much depends on the vaccinated numbers and I hope the people will realise that they are helping not only themselves but also the society.

Take for example the covid-19 situations in the UK and Australia and compare them with our situation where the spread is mainly due to the Omicron variant. The UK is experiencing the winter season, Australia the summer and in Sri Lanka we are experiencing a dry hot weather. Earlier it was cold and rainy in December here in our country. On the 12th of December, 2021 the UK registered 48,000 patients for the day. Then the numbers rose sharply within three weeks and rose to reach 218,000 on 4th January 2022. That is more than a four-fold increase! Today, the daily number has gone down to 92,000 but it is still high. Now UK’s population is three times that of Sri Lanka. Take Australia a country with a population just above our country. They had just 1843 new patients on that day, 12th December 2021. By 12th January 2022 the number of new cases for the day peaked at 175,000. By the 3rd February 2022, the numbers had come down to 32,000. During this period what were the numbers here in Sri Lanka? On 12th December 2021 we had just 714 new patients for the day. By 9th January the number of cases went down to 430 and then started to gradually go up and by the 3rd of February, 2022, we had 1183. Compared with the numbers in December 2021 this is almost a three-fold increase. But then why are our numbers so low? Very few people get themselves tested for the Covid-19 virus. The laboratory facilities are difficult to get at. The private sector charges exorbitant prices. So, many wait at home, some use Ayurvedic remedies, but others go to work with the runny nose, sore throat, fever, etc. Of course, they check the temperatures at the entrances but the machines are never calibrated. The workers with the infections hide behind the masks and no one knows whether they are infected or not. There is no social distancing at work.This is so even in medical facilities. There are no proper awareness programmes even in the cities. Parties, demonstrations and meetings are held involving hundreds of people disregarding that we might have an imminent outbreak of Omicron here in the country.

What will happen in the near future? My guess is that there will be a sharp increase in the number of patients during the next few weeks and this will go on till the April holidays. The numbers will not be that high like in Aussie land or the UK due to the hot and dry weather conditions that we experience and also as many of the infected citizens will be not going to a medical facility for treatment or a laboratory for testing and we will not know the exact numbers anyway.

The country should not be locked-down at any cost and people should learn to live with it and at the same time take precautions. The tourism industry has just picked up and statistics show that hardly a tourist is infected with Covid-19 according to PCR tests although the southern coastal line has a large number of infected persons. I think it is the local tourists from Colombo and suburbs that travel to the southern areas that take the disease with them. There should be an increased awareness created among people by using the electronic media to get people’s attention to the need of taking preventive measures and staying put if they have the disease.

All government institutions and the private sector as well should first ask their staff members to get fully vaccinated as they deal with first their own members of staff and then the outsiders or customers. They should ask the staff members to keep away from work if they have a runny nose, sore-throat headache etc. The heads of these institutions should see that no infected persons come to work as bringing in one person with the virus can infect all in one division especially, when they work in a closed air-conditioned room or a hall. In each division a health officer should be appointed to check whether any infected person has come to work. If there are many persons down with covid-19 then all should undergo antigen testing. I think it is better if the government informs these institutions to keep the staff levels at work to 50-70 % during the next few weeks and watch the situation. I am totally against road-side antigen testing as that is trying to find a needle in a haystack. It is better to use the same resources to find the infected people in high-risk institutions and offices which will be more productive.

CMC which is spearheading the covid-19 control campaign should start with their own organization first and put the house in order at the Town Hall as a large number of patients are found there. Colombo and suburbs are the most important areas that the government should concentrate in the vaccination drive as almost all the communicable diseases are spread to other areas from the above areas. Take the month of January this year, out of the 200 dengue fever patients in Colombo District, the Colombo Municipality area has 166 patients. Unlike Delta Omicron infected persons’ lungs will be less affected but then if one is over 60 years of age there could be complications. Therefore, booster vaccinations are a must and the service should be taken to the people and not expectT hem to come to the centers.

So, a massive awareness campaign coupled with an intensive vaccination drive that can cover at least 80% of the eligible persons in the next few weeks will slow down the spread of Omicron variant. Government statistics show that 16.7 million persons were given the first dose of the vaccine, 14 million the second dose but only 5.6 million the third dose showing the decline in interest of citizens to get the vaccine. If this will continue the disease will rapidly spread and the numbers will be high and new variants will emerge. In that case we will have to wait it out while doing our normal day to day work risking our lives until 80% of the population has either got the disease or vaccinated to stop Covid-19. If one wishes to take the risk and not get vaccinated then it is that person’s right. But they have no right to infect others. So be conscientious and think of others, get the vaccines and all will be well.



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Features

Lasting solutions require consensus

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Social Media training

Problems and solutions in plural societies like Sri Lanka’s which have deep rooted ethnic, religious and linguistic cleavages require a consciously inclusive approach. A major challenge for any government in Sri Lanka is to correctly identify the problems faced by different groups with strong identities and find solutions to them. The durability of democratic systems in divided societies depends less on electoral victories than on institutionalised inclusion, consultation, and negotiated compromise. When problems are defined only through the lens of a single political formation, even one that enjoys a large electoral mandate, such as obtained by the NPP government, the policy prescriptions derived from that diagnosis will likely overlook the experiences of communities that may remain outside the ruling party. The result could end up being resistance to those policies, uneven implementation and eventual political backlash.

A recent survey done by the National Peace Council (NPC), in Jaffna, in the North, at a focus group discussion for young people on citizen perception in the electoral process, revealed interesting developments. The results of the NPC micro survey support the findings of the national survey by Verite Research that found that government approval rating stood at 65 percent in early February 2026. A majority of the respondents in Jaffna affirm that they feel safer and more fairly treated than in the past. There is a clear improving trend to be seen in some areas, but not in all. This survey of predominantly young and educated respondents shows 78 percent saying livelihood has improved and an equal percentage feeling safe in daily life. 75 percent express satisfaction with the new government and 64 percent believe the state treats their language and culture fairly. These are not insignificant gains in a region that bore the brunt of three decades of war.

Yet the same survey reveals deep reservations that temper this optimism. Only 25 percent are satisfied with the handling of past issues. An equal percentage see no change in land and military related concerns. Most strikingly, almost 90 percent are worried about land being taken without consent for religious purposes. A significant number are uncertain whether the future will be better. These negative sentiments cannot be brushed aside as marginal. They point to unresolved structural questions relating to land rights, demilitarisation, accountability and the locus of political power. If these issues are not addressed sooner rather than later, the current stability may prove fragile. This suggests the need to build consensus with other parties to ensure long-term stability and legitimacy, and the need for partnership to address national issues.

NPP Absence

National or local level problems solving is unlikely to be successful in the longer term if it only proceeds from the thinking of one group of people even if they are the most enlightened. Problem solving requires the engagement of those from different ethno-religious, caste and political backgrounds to get a diversity of ideas and possible solutions. It does not mean getting corrupted or having to give up the good for the worse. It means testing ideas in the public sphere. Legitimacy flows not merely from winning elections but from the quality of public reasoning that precedes decision-making. The experience of successful post-conflict societies shows that long term peace and development are built through dialogue platforms where civil society organisations, political actors, business communities, and local representatives jointly define problems before negotiating policy responses.

As a civil society organisation, the National Peace Council engages in a variety of public activities that focus on awareness and relationship building across communities. Participants in those activities include community leaders, religious clergy, local level government officials and grassroots political party representatives. However, along with other civil society organisations, NPC has been finding it difficult to get the participation of members of the NPP at those events. The excuse given for the absence of ruling party members is that they are too busy as they are involved in a plenitude of activities. The question is whether the ruling party members have too much on their plate or whether it is due to a reluctance to work with others.

The general belief is that those from the ruling party need to get special permission from the party hierarchy for activities organised by groups not under their control. The reluctance of the ruling party to permit its members to join the activities of other organisations may be the concern that they will get ideas that are different from those held by the party leadership. The concern may be that these different ideas will either corrupt the ruling party members or cause dissent within the ranks of the ruling party. But lasting reform in a plural society requires precisely this exposure. If 90 percent of surveyed youth in Jaffna are worried about land issues, then engaging them, rather than shielding party representatives from uncomfortable conversations, is essential for accurate problem identification.

North Star

The Leader of the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP), Prof Tissa Vitarana, who passed away last week, gave the example for national level problem solving. As a government minister he took on the challenge the protracted ethnic conflict that led to three decades of war. He set his mind on the solution and engaged with all but never veered from his conviction about what the solution would be. This was the North Star to him, said his son to me at his funeral, the direction to which the Compass (Malimawa) pointed at all times. Prof Vitarana held the view that in a diverse and plural society there was a need to devolve power and share power in a structured way between the majority community and minority communities. His example illustrates that engagement does not require ideological capitulation. It requires clarity of purpose combined with openness to dialogue.

The ethnic and religious peace that prevails today owes much to the efforts of people like Prof Vitarana and other like-minded persons and groups which, for many years, engaged as underdogs with those who were more powerful. The commitment to equality of citizenship, non-racism, non-extremism and non-discrimination, upheld by the present government, comes from this foundation. But the NPC survey suggests that symbolic recognition and improved daily safety are not enough. Respondents prioritise personal safety, truth regarding missing persons, return of land, language use and reduction of military involvement. They are also asking for jobs after graduation, local economic opportunity, protection of property rights, and tangible improvements that allow them to remain in Jaffna rather than migrate.

If solutions are to be lasting they cannot be unilaterally imposed by one party on the others. Lasting solutions cannot be unilateral solutions. They must emerge from a shared diagnosis of the country’s deepest problems and from a willingness to address the negative sentiments that persist beneath the surface of cautious optimism. Only then can progress be secured against reversal and anchored in the consent of the wider polity. Engaging with the opposition can help mitigate the hyper-confrontational and divisive political culture of the past. This means that the ruling party needs to consider not only how to protect its existing members by cloistering them from those who think differently but also expand its vision and membership by convincing others to join them in problem solving at multiple levels. This requires engagement and not avoidance or withdrawal.

 

by Jehan Perera

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Unpacking public responses to educational reforms

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A pro-government demonstration calling for the implementation of the education reforms. (A file photo)

As the debate on educational reforms rages, I find it useful to pay as much attention to the reactions they have excited as we do to the content of the reforms. Such reactions are a reflection of how education is understood in our society, and this understanding – along with the priorities it gives rise to – must necessarily be taken into account in education policy, including and especially reform. My aim in this piece, however, is to couple this public engagement with critical reflection on the historical-structural realities that structure our possibilities in the global market, and briefly discuss the role of academics in this endeavour.

Two broad reactions

The reactions to the proposed reforms can be broadly categorised into ‘pro’ and ‘anti’. I will discuss the latter first. Most of the backlash against the reforms seems to be directed at the issue of a gay dating site, accidentally being linked to the Grade 6 English module. While the importance of rigour cannot be overstated in such a process, the sheer volume of the energies concentrated on this is also indicative of how hopelessly homophobic our society is, especially its educators, including those in trade unions. These dispositions are a crucial part of the reason why educational reforms are needed in the first place. If only there was a fraction of the interest in ‘keeping up with the rest of the world’ in terms of IT, skills, and so on, in this area as well!

Then there is the opposition mounted by teachers’ trade unions and others about the process of the reforms not being very democratic, which I (and many others in higher education, as evidenced by a recent statement, available at https://island.lk/general-educational-reforms-to-what-purpose-a-statement-by-state-university-teachers/ ) fully agree with. But I earnestly hope the conversation is not usurped by those wanting to promote heteronormativity, further entrenching bigotry only education itself can save us from. With this important qualification, I, too, believe the government should open up the reform process to the public, rather than just ‘informing’ them of it.

It is unclear both as to why the process had to be behind closed doors, as well as why the government seems to be in a hurry to push the reforms through. Considering other recent developments, like the continued extension of emergency rule, tabling of the Protection of the State from Terrorism Act (PSTA), and proposing a new Authority for the protection of the Central Highlands (as is famously known, Authorities directly come under the Executive, and, therefore, further strengthen the Presidency; a reasonable question would be as to why the existing apparatus cannot be strengthened for this purpose), this appears especially suspect.

Further, according to the Secretary to the MOE Nalaka Kaluwewa: “The full framework for the [education] reforms was already in place [when the Dissanayake government took office]” (https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/08/12/wxua-a12.html, citing The Morning, July 29). Given the ideological inclinations of the former Wickremesinghe government and the IMF negotiations taking place at the time, the continuation of education reforms, initiated in such a context with very little modification, leaves little doubt as to their intent: to facilitate the churning out of cheap labour for the global market (with very little cushioning from external shocks and reproducing global inequalities), while raising enough revenue in the process to service debt.

This process privileges STEM subjects, which are “considered to contribute to higher levels of ‘employability’ among their graduates … With their emphasis on transferable skills and demonstrable competency levels, STEM subjects provide tools that are well suited for the abstraction of labour required by capitalism, particularly at the global level where comparability across a wide array of labour markets matters more than ever before” (my own previous piece in this column on 29 October 2024). Humanities and Social Sciences (HSS) subjects are deprioritised as a result. However, the wisdom of an education policy that is solely focused on responding to the global market has been questioned in this column and elsewhere, both because the global market has no reason to prioritise our needs as well as because such an orientation comes at the cost of a strategy for improving the conditions within Sri Lanka, in all sectors. This is why we need a more emancipatory vision for education geared towards building a fairer society domestically where the fruits of prosperity are enjoyed by all.

The second broad reaction to the reforms is to earnestly embrace them. The reasons behind this need to be taken seriously, although it echoes the mantra of the global market. According to one parent participating in a protest against the halting of the reform process: “The world is moving forward with new inventions and technology, but here in Sri Lanka, our children are still burdened with outdated methods. Opposition politicians send their children to international schools or abroad, while ours depend on free education. Stopping these reforms is the lowest act I’ve seen as a mother” (https://www.newsfirst.lk/2026/01/17/pro-educational-reforms-protests-spread-across-sri-lanka). While it is worth mentioning that it is not only the opposition, nor in fact only politicians, who send their children to international schools and abroad, the point holds. Updating the curriculum to reflect the changing needs of a society will invariably strengthen the case for free education. However, as mentioned before, if not combined with a vision for harnessing education’s emancipatory potential for the country, such a move would simply translate into one of integrating Sri Lanka to the world market to produce cheap labour for the colonial and neocolonial masters.

According to another parent in a similar protest: “Our children were excited about lighter schoolbags and a better future. Now they are left in despair” (https://www.newsfirst.lk/2026/01/17/pro-educational-reforms-protests-spread-across-sri-lanka). Again, a valid concern, but one that seems to be completely buying into the rhetoric of the government. As many pieces in this column have already shown, even though the structure of assessments will shift from exam-heavy to more interim forms of assessment (which is very welcome), the number of modules/subjects will actually increase, pushing a greater, not lesser, workload on students.

A file photo of a satyagraha against education reforms

What kind of education?

The ‘pro’ reactions outlined above stem from valid concerns, and, therefore, need to be taken seriously. Relatedly, we have to keep in mind that opening the process up to public engagement will not necessarily result in some of the outcomes, those particularly in the HSS academic community, would like to see, such as increasing the HSS component in the syllabus, changing weightages assigned to such subjects, reintroducing them to the basket of mandatory subjects, etc., because of the increasing traction of STEM subjects as a surer way to lock in a good future income.

Academics do have a role to play here, though: 1) actively engage with various groups of people to understand their rationales behind supporting or opposing the reforms; 2) reflect on how such preferences are constituted, and what they in turn contribute towards constituting (including the global and local patterns of accumulation and structures of oppression they perpetuate); 3) bring these reflections back into further conversations, enabling a mutually conditioning exchange; 4) collectively work out a plan for reforming education based on the above, preferably in an arrangement that directly informs policy. A reform process informed by such a dialectical exchange, and a system of education based on the results of these reflections, will have greater substantive value while also responding to the changing times.

Two important prerequisites for this kind of endeavour to succeed are that first, academics participate, irrespective of whether they publicly endorsed this government or not, and second, that the government responds with humility and accountability, without denial and shifting the blame on to individuals. While we cannot help the second, we can start with the first.

Conclusion

For a government that came into power riding the wave of ‘system change’, it is perhaps more important than for any other government that these reforms are done for the right reasons, not to mention following the right methods (of consultation and deliberation). For instance, developing soft skills or incorporating vocational education to the curriculum could be done either in a way that reproduces Sri Lanka’s marginality in the global economic order (which is ‘system preservation’), or lays the groundwork to develop a workforce first and foremost for the country, limited as this approach may be. An inextricable concern is what is denoted by ‘the country’ here: a few affluent groups, a majority ethno-religious category, or everyone living here? How we define ‘the country’ will centrally influence how education policy (among others) will be formulated, just as much as the quality of education influences how we – students, teachers, parents, policymakers, bureaucrats, ‘experts’ – think about such categories. That is precisely why more thought should go to education policymaking than perhaps any other sector.

(Hasini Lecamwasam is attached to the Department of Political Science, University of Peradeniya).

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

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Chef’s daughter cooking up a storm…

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Emma being congratulated on her debut Sinhala single // Emma Shanaya: At the launch of ‘Sanasum Mawana

Don Sherman was quite a popular figure in the entertainment scene but now he is better known as the Singing Chef and that’s because he turns out some yummy dishes at his restaurant, in Rajagiriya.

However, now the spotlight is gradually focusing on his daughter Emma Shanaya who has turned out to be a very talented singer.

In fact, we have spotlighted her in The Island a couple of times and she is in the limelight, once gain.

When Emma released her debut music video, titled ‘You Made Me Feel,’ the feedback was very encouraging and at that point in time she said “I only want to keep doing bigger and greater things and ‘You Made Me Feel’ is the very first step to a long journey.”

Emma, who resides in Melbourne, Australia, is in Sri Lanka, at the moment, and has released her very first Sinhala single.

“I’m back in Sri Lanka with a brand new single and this time it’s a Sinhalese song … yes, my debut Sinhala song ‘Sanasum Mawana’ (Bloom like a Flower).

“This song is very special to me as I wrote the lyrics in English and then got it translated and re-written by my mother, and my amazing and very talented producer Thilina Boralessa. Thilina also composed the music, and mix and master of the track.”

Emma went on to say that instead of a love song, or a young romance, she wanted to give the Sri Lankan audience a debut song with some meaning and substance that will portray her, not only as an artiste, but as the person she is.

Says Emma: “‘Sanasum Mawana’ is about life, love and the essence of a woman. This song is for the special woman in your life, whether it be your mother, sister, friend, daughter or partner. I personally dedicate this song to my mother. I wouldn’t be where I am right now if it weren’t for her.”

On Friday, 30th January, ‘Sanasum Mawana’ went live on YouTube and all streaming platforms, and just before it went live, she went on to say, they had a wonderful and intimate launch event at her father’s institute/ restaurant, the ‘Don Sherman Institute’ in Rajagiriya.

It was an evening of celebration, good food and great vibes and the event was also an introduction to Emma Shanaya the person and artiste.

Emma also mentioned that she is Sri Lanka for an extended period – a “work holiday”.

“I would like to expand my creativity in Sri Lanka and see the opportunities the island has in store for me. I look forward to singing, modelling, and acting opportunities, and to work with some wonderful people.

“Thank you to everyone that is by my side, supporting me on this new and exciting journey. I can’t wait to bring you more and continue to bloom like a flower.”

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