Business
Fitch upgrades Sri Lanka to ‘CCC+’
Says there’s no foreign-currency bond maturities until 2029
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC+’, from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default). Fitch typically does not assign an Outlook to sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC+’ or below.
Fitch has also upgraded the Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC+’, from ‘CCC-‘, to align with the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR, as the risk of another default on local-currency debt has been reduced by the completion of the international sovereign bond restructuring and an improved outlook for macroeconomic indicators. Sri Lanka completed the local-currency portion of its domestic debt optimisation in September 2023, following the exchange of treasury bills and provisional advances held by Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s into new treasury bonds and bills.
The upgrade of the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR reflects Fitch’s assessment that Sri Lanka has normalised relations with a majority of creditors, after the announcement of final results of the invitation to exchange the outstanding stock of international sovereign bonds with a 98% participation rate. One bond series with non-aggregated collective action clauses did not meet the required 75% level. Without this bond series, the acceptance results imply a restructuring of 96% of total commercial external debt.
The debt exchange will convert 11 international sovereign bonds and accumulated past due interest (PDI) into a mix of four macro-linked bonds, one governance-linked bond and one PDI bond. Bondholders can choose the local alternative governed by domestic law, with rupee-denominated bonds and a US dollar bond with step-up coupon payments.
Sri Lanka is also restructuring debt to commercial and official creditors. An agreement in principle has been reached with most commercial creditors including international banks for an amount of about USD200 million. Restructuring of debt owed to official creditors is expected to be completed by end-2024.
Improved External Finances: Sri Lanka’s foreign-currency debt restructuring offers substantial upfront debt repayment relief, with no foreign-currency bond maturities until 2029. The first amortisation on the macro-linked bonds, which have low coupon rates until 2032, starts from 2029. Governance linked bond amortisation begins in 2034 and the US-dollar step-up bonds start amortisation in 2029. We expect foreign-exchange reserves to reach USD8.7 billion by 2026, also reflecting debt relief over the period.
The debt restructuring has reduced the government’s debt service burden and liquidity risks, but general government debt/GDP and the interest/revenue ratio are likely to stay high in the medium term. The restructuring under Fitch’s baseline assumptions lowers general government debt/GDP to about 90% by 2028, while Fitch forecasts the interest/revenue ratio to decline to 42%, still well above the ‘CCC’ median of 16%. This is, however, a large drop from the 67% in 2021, prior to the sovereign default.
Sri Lanka has a weak long-term revenue raising record, but the government implemented several major tax measures to boost revenue collection and achieve debt sustainability. Fitch expects general government revenue/GDP to exceed 15% by 2026, from 11% in 2023, broadly in line with IMF programme projections. Downside risks could be substantial if the government fails to raise revenue.
Strong Mandate from Election Outcome: Sri Lanka’s September 2024 presidential election was won by a leader of the opposition National People’s Power, which secured over two-thirds majority in the legislature. Fitch expects the new government to support progress on reforms. The new government has said it will continue to implement the 48-month IMF extended fund facility, which began in March 2023. Sri Lanka has made major progress on the programme under the previous government.
Sri Lanka’s economy is recovering after a contraction in 2022 and 2023. In seasonally adjusted terms, real GDP growth in 3Q24 recovered to 5.2%, after contracting by 7.4% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023. This was driven by an 11.1% pick-up in industrial growth, while services grew by about 2.8%. We expect growth to recover to 4.1% in 2024 and average 3.6% over 2025-2026.
The Central Bank’s policy measures have largely reversed a rise in inflation, which peaked in September 2022 at 67.2% (seasonally adjusted). Inflation continues to decline, falling to -2.1% yoy in November 2024. The central bank has eased monetary policy significantly, reducing the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 800 bp since June 2023. Fitch expects further easing over 2025-2026, in line with its expectation that underlying inflationary pressure will remain muted and the central bank will meet its medium-term inflation target of 5.0%.
Economic reforms implemented since the crisis period have improved headline macroeconomic metrics, reduced systemic risks and support banks’ operating flexibility. Asset quality stress has peaked and declining credit costs are driving higher profitability. Pressure on foreign- and local-currency funding and liquidity has eased on better external flows and banks’ efforts to preserve liquidity. Fitch expects banks to regain access to foreign-currency wholesale funding, following the restoration of the sovereign’s creditworthiness.
Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights as well as for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch’s proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM). Sri Lanka has a medium WBGI ranking in the 38th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.
Factors that could, Individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade
-Public Finances: An increase in government debt/GDP, potentially reflecting an inability to further raise revenue, resulting in wider budget deficits.
– External Finances: Inability to rebuild foreign-exchange reserves that weakens debt repayment capacity.
Business
Sri Lanka’s tourism paradox: More visitors, less money
Sri Lanka’s tourism industry is posting arrival numbers that many destinations would envy, yet it is increasingly troubled by a disconcerting trend: the country is welcoming record numbers of visitors, but tourism earnings are struggling to keep pace.
In May, Sri Lanka recorded its highest-ever monthly increase in tourist arrivals, welcoming 145,745 visitors, a 10% rise from a year earlier. However, tourism revenue fell 5.1% year-on-year to US$155.7 million, according to official data. For the first five months of 2026, earnings declined 12% to US$1.36 billion, despite continued growth in arrivals.
“These figures highlight a growing challenge for a country that depends heavily on tourism as a source of foreign exchange: attracting more tourists is no longer enough. The bigger question is how much they spend once they arrive,” a leading hotelier told The Island Financial Review.
“After being battered by the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 economic crisis, Sri Lanka recorded a historic 2.36 million visitors in 2025. Authorities are now targeting 3 million arrivals in 2026. But beneath those anticipated numbers lies a more complicated story,” he said.
Elaborating further, he noted: “Tourism revenue reached roughly US$3.2 billion in 2025; only marginally higher than the previous year, despite a 15% jump in arrivals. More tellingly, earnings remain significantly below the levels achieved in 2018, when visitor numbers were comparable. So, the decline in average tourist spending has become impossible to ignore.”
According to official surveys, average daily tourist expenditure has been revised downward to approximately US$148 per day, compared with previous estimates exceeding US$170.
Referring to this trend, he added: “Destinations such as the Maldives attract substantially higher per-visitor spending through luxury tourism, premium experiences, and high-end accommodation. The debate should increasingly revolve around whether Sri Lanka is pursuing the right tourism model.”
For years, the country focused on boosting arrival numbers through aggressive marketing campaigns, Instagram influencer partnerships, and social media promotions. As a result, Sri Lanka may now be attracting too many budget-conscious travellers while failing to draw those seeking immersive, higher-value experiences rooted in the nation’s natural and cultural assets. “Are we grappling with the tension between ‘high-volume tourism’ and ‘high-value tourism’?” he asked. “Sri Lanka must encourage longer stays, diversify experiences beyond beaches and cultural sites, and develop premium offerings in wellness, eco-tourism, adventure, luxury rail, culinary, and wildlife sectors if it hopes to increase per-visitor spending.”
An inbound travel operator concurred, stating that the future should depend less on bringing in more people and more on attracting the right mix of travellers.
Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka appears to be intensifying efforts in key source markets. One of the most notable initiatives took place recently in Moscow, where Deputy Tourism Minister Prof. Ruwan Ranasinghe led a delegation to the sixth “Let’s Travel International Tourism Forum.” Discussions with Russian officials focused on direct flights, simplified visa procedures, destination promotion, and stronger bilateral tourism cooperation.
Russian travellers have become increasingly important to Sri Lanka’s tourism sector. Russia consistently ranks among the island’s top source markets, alongside India and the United Kingdom. In early 2026 alone, tens of thousands of Russian visitors arrived in Sri Lanka, underscoring the market’s growing significance. The Moscow forum also signalled a broader strategy: expanding beyond traditional hubs and reaching travellers across multiple Russian regions.
“The island’s beaches, wildlife reserves, ancient cities, tea-country landscapes, and wellness traditions already provide a strong foundation, and Sri Lanka has largely solved the problem of attracting visitors. Its next challenge is more difficult: transforming a popular destination into a high-value one. That will require investment in infrastructure, premium tourism products, transport connectivity, destination management, and visitor experiences that encourage travellers to spend more and stay longer,” the inbound operator said.
Tourism Minister Vijitha Herath recently told parliament that the current revenue figures reflect more accurate measurement methodologies rather than a collapse in spending. Referring to this, the hotelier said,” While that may be a technically valid assertion, it does little to mask a far more pressing reality: Sri Lanka is no longer attracting the high-spending travellers it once did. The data, when viewed alongside declining average daily expenditure and stagnant overall earnings, points to a structural shift in the country’s visitor profile, one that favours volume over value. Until Sri Lanka recalibrates its tourism strategy to prioritise quality over quantity, it risks becoming a destination that everyone visits but few truly invest in.”
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Climate resilience now central to Sri Lanka’s economic future, investors told
Climate resilience is no longer an environmental concern on the periphery of policymaking but a critical economic imperative that will determine Sri Lanka’s future competitiveness, export performance, investment attractiveness and long-term growth prospects, leading development agencies and private-sector leaders warned at a high-level forum titled Sri Lanka Climate Summit in Colombo recently.
With climate shocks becoming increasingly frequent and costly, experts said that Sri Lanka must urgently strengthen climate-resilient infrastructure, reform key utility sectors, modernise its data systems and improve access to global climate financing if it hopes to sustain economic recovery and attract investment.
The discussion brought together representatives from multilateral institutions, development agencies and the private sector, who argued that climate adaptation should be viewed not as a financial burden but as one of the largest economic opportunities available to emerging economies.
Addressing the forum, Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for Sri Lanka, Shannon Cowlin, said countries with stronger economic fundamentals are better positioned to absorb climate shocks and recover faster.
“Climate resilience is not only about infrastructure. It is also about macroeconomic resilience. Countries that maintain sound economic management can respond more effectively when disasters occur,” she said.
Referring to Sri Lanka’s recent response to Cyclone Ditwa, Cowlin noted that the country’s economic reforms and recovery programme had significantly improved its ability to manage the disaster compared with previous years.
The ADB highlighted the importance of ongoing reforms in the energy and water sectors, particularly efforts to establish cost-reflective tariffs that would enable utilities to maintain and upgrade critical infrastructure.
“We cannot expect financially distressed utilities to invest adequately in resilience,” she cautioned.
The bank is currently preparing emergency assistance financing to support post-cyclone recovery efforts while embedding internationally recognised “Build Back Better” principles into reconstruction programmes.
Rather than merely restoring damaged assets, future investments will focus on strengthening roads, drainage systems and other public infrastructure to withstand increasingly severe weather events.
Dilmah chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dilhan Fernando warned that climate change represents a direct threat to Sri Lanka’s export competitiveness, especially for premium products such as Ceylon Tea and Ceylon Cinnamon.
“Adaptation is simply another word for survival,” Fernando said.
He observed that rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasingly unpredictable weather events are beginning to challenge the environmental conditions that have historically given Sri Lankan agricultural products their global reputation.
“The planet has already warmed by more than 1.3 degrees Celsius. Scientists project warming levels approaching three degrees, which would create environmental conditions not experienced for millions of years, he said.
Fernando warned that climate pressures could significantly affect both production volumes and product quality in the tea sector.
“We speak about achieving 400 million kilograms of tea production. Given the climate extremes we are witnessing today, we need to question whether such targets remain realistic in the long term,” he said.
He also highlighted a growing commercial challenge emerging from international markets.
The European Union’s new sustainability and supply-chain regulations are expected to impose stricter environmental compliance requirements on exporters, potentially affecting market access for companies unable to demonstrate sustainable production practices.
“These developments are not simply regulatory requirements. They represent a structural transformation in global trade and consumer expectations,” Fernando said.
However, he argued that businesses should approach climate adaptation as a strategic growth opportunity rather than a compliance exercise.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation General Limited honoured
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation General Limited (SLICGL), the nation’s trusted leader in general insurance, has been recognised as Sri Lanka’s No. 1 Most Loved General Insurance Brand in 2026.
The prestigious honour, awarded by LMD – The Voice of Business, demonstrates the deep trust, confidence, and lasting relationships customers continue to place in SLICGL. It is clear evidence of the company’s continued commitment to service excellence, innovation, and reliability in protecting lives and businesses throughout the country.
As SLICGL continues to command the industry, it remains dedicated to protecting lives, supporting communities, and delivering trusted insurance solutions nationwide. The achievement also celebrates the dedication of employees, sales teams, business partners, and stakeholders whose collective efforts have strengthened the brand and nurtured long‑term customer relationships.
The recognition reinforces SLICGL’s position as the country’s leading force in the insurance sector, motivating the organisation to enhance products, services, and customer experiences, maintaining the highest standards for all touchpoints.
Today, the bond thrives on consistent delivery. SLICGL remains the undisputed market leader in Sri Lanka’s general insurance industry, with a 20.2% market share and a Gross Written Premium of Rs. 30.3 billion in 2025. During the year, the company settled Rs. 12.3 billion in insurance claims and benefits, including in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, standing by policyholders when it mattered most. Its motor solutions arm, Motor Plus, retained its place as the country’s number one motor insurer.
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