Business

Fitch upgrades Sri Lanka to ‘CCC+’

Published

1 year ago

2024/12/23

Says there’s no foreign-currency bond maturities until 2029

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC+’, from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default). Fitch typically does not assign an Outlook to sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC+’ or below.

Fitch has also upgraded the Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC+’, from ‘CCC-‘, to align with the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR, as the risk of another default on local-currency debt has been reduced by the completion of the international sovereign bond restructuring and an improved outlook for macroeconomic indicators. Sri Lanka completed the local-currency portion of its domestic debt optimisation in September 2023, following the exchange of treasury bills and provisional advances held by Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s into new treasury bonds and bills.

The upgrade of the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR reflects Fitch’s assessment that Sri Lanka has normalised relations with a majority of creditors, after the announcement of final results of the invitation to exchange the outstanding stock of international sovereign bonds with a 98% participation rate. One bond series with non-aggregated collective action clauses did not meet the required 75% level. Without this bond series, the acceptance results imply a restructuring of 96% of total commercial external debt.

The debt exchange will convert 11 international sovereign bonds and accumulated past due interest (PDI) into a mix of four macro-linked bonds, one governance-linked bond and one PDI bond. Bondholders can choose the local alternative governed by domestic law, with rupee-denominated bonds and a US dollar bond with step-up coupon payments.

Sri Lanka is also restructuring debt to commercial and official creditors. An agreement in principle has been reached with most commercial creditors including international banks for an amount of about USD200 million. Restructuring of debt owed to official creditors is expected to be completed by end-2024.

Improved External Finances: Sri Lanka’s foreign-currency debt restructuring offers substantial upfront debt repayment relief, with no foreign-currency bond maturities until 2029. The first amortisation on the macro-linked bonds, which have low coupon rates until 2032, starts from 2029. Governance linked bond amortisation begins in 2034 and the US-dollar step-up bonds start amortisation in 2029. We expect foreign-exchange reserves to reach USD8.7 billion by 2026, also reflecting debt relief over the period.

The debt restructuring has reduced the government’s debt service burden and liquidity risks, but general government debt/GDP and the interest/revenue ratio are likely to stay high in the medium term. The restructuring under Fitch’s baseline assumptions lowers general government debt/GDP to about 90% by 2028, while Fitch forecasts the interest/revenue ratio to decline to 42%, still well above the ‘CCC’ median of 16%. This is, however, a large drop from the 67% in 2021, prior to the sovereign default.

Sri Lanka has a weak long-term revenue raising record, but the government implemented several major tax measures to boost revenue collection and achieve debt sustainability. Fitch expects general government revenue/GDP to exceed 15% by 2026, from 11% in 2023, broadly in line with IMF programme projections. Downside risks could be substantial if the government fails to raise revenue.

Strong Mandate from Election Outcome: Sri Lanka’s September 2024 presidential election was won by a leader of the opposition National People’s Power, which secured over two-thirds majority in the legislature. Fitch expects the new government to support progress on reforms. The new government has said it will continue to implement the 48-month IMF extended fund facility, which began in March 2023. Sri Lanka has made major progress on the programme under the previous government.

Sri Lanka’s economy is recovering after a contraction in 2022 and 2023. In seasonally adjusted terms, real GDP growth in 3Q24 recovered to 5.2%, after contracting by 7.4% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023. This was driven by an 11.1% pick-up in industrial growth, while services grew by about 2.8%. We expect growth to recover to 4.1% in 2024 and average 3.6% over 2025-2026.

The Central Bank’s policy measures have largely reversed a rise in inflation, which peaked in September 2022 at 67.2% (seasonally adjusted). Inflation continues to decline, falling to -2.1% yoy in November 2024. The central bank has eased monetary policy significantly, reducing the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 800 bp since June 2023. Fitch expects further easing over 2025-2026, in line with its expectation that underlying inflationary pressure will remain muted and the central bank will meet its medium-term inflation target of 5.0%.

Economic reforms implemented since the crisis period have improved headline macroeconomic metrics, reduced systemic risks and support banks’ operating flexibility. Asset quality stress has peaked and declining credit costs are driving higher profitability. Pressure on foreign- and local-currency funding and liquidity has eased on better external flows and banks’ efforts to preserve liquidity. Fitch expects banks to regain access to foreign-currency wholesale funding, following the restoration of the sovereign’s creditworthiness.

Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights as well as for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch’s proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM). Sri Lanka has a medium WBGI ranking in the 38th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.

Factors that could, Individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade

-Public Finances: An increase in government debt/GDP, potentially reflecting an inability to further raise revenue, resulting in wider budget deficits.

– External Finances: Inability to rebuild foreign-exchange reserves that weakens debt repayment capacity.

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Business

Steps leading to the achievement of SL’s national interest in IOR

Published

9 hours ago

2026/02/24

Sahan Weerasooriya

Prof. Nobukatsu Kanehera: ‘Rulesbased order violated.’

Sri Lanka needs to build awareness, effective policies and encourage regional multilateral frameworks to develop a multi-pronged approach to secure its national interest and safeguard regional stability in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), as the region together with its seabed have become an area of strategic competition, former Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Prof Nobukatsu Kanehara said.

“The Indian Ocean has been a maritime highway for millennia, with Sri Lanka being a midway point of the flow of trade, culture, technology and intellectual progress, Prof Kanehara said at the 4th Pathfinder Foundation Sri Lanka Indian Ocean Security Council Conference held recently at the Cinnamon Grand Hotel. The forum was presided over by Pathfinder Foundation Sri Lanka Chairman Ambassador (retd.) Dr. Bernard Goonetilleke.

The forum’s purpose was to obtain expert commentary regarding the need for Sri Lanka to ‘up its game’ in the IOR.

Abe said that from the 1870s onwards, the Indian Ocean had become the global communications highway, with the British Empire laying submarine cables from Aden to Mumbai, linking Europe to South Asia.

‘Since then, with the passage of time, Ceylon, and later Sri Lanka, has seen the bulk of the global digital communications umbilical laid through its maritime domain of influence, with over a dozen such cables laid over the island’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) thus far, he said.

Prof. Kanehera added: ” With the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and increasing digitisation, such submarine cables have become critical strategic infrastructure for the island nation as well as the region.

‘This timely conference came as world powers rushed to secure critical minerals needed to maintain a technology edge over rivals, both militarily and economically, disrupting the longstanding rules-based order, especially at sea and in trade.

‘The lack of cognition regarding how to understand and navigate the return to a near Cold War era strategic competition in the Indian Ocean, and increasingly in the sub-surface domain and the seabed, among Sri Lanka’s policy making community, bureaucrats and public leaves the economically weakened island nation more vulnerable to geopolitical coercion, shocks and tug-o-war, which will likely increase in the coming decade.’

By Hiran H Senewiratne

Business

Automobile Association of Ceylon donates towards Disaster Relief Support Fund

Published

9 hours ago

2026/02/24

Sahan Weerasooriya

Automobile Association of Ceylon (AAC) donated Rs. 25 Million towards the Disaster Relief Support Fund to assist the Ditwah Cyclone victims.

A donation was handed over to Dr. S N Kumanayake, Secretary to the President of Democratic Socialistic Republic of Sri Lanka by Dhammika Attygalle, President – AAC at the Presidential Secretariat on the 19th February 2026 in the presence of Executive Committee members.

Dhammika Attygalle President AAC (third from Left) handing over the cheque to Dr S N Kumanayake, Secretary to the President of Democratic Socialistic Republic of Sri Lanka.

In the picture L-R Lasitha Gunaratne- EXCO Member – AAC, Devapriya Hettiarachchi – Secretary -AAC, P H Liyanage, P B Kulatunga & Indunil Udaya – Members of the EXCO – AAC

Business

‘Sri Lanka’s first AI-powered digital trainer for Banca partners’

Published

9 hours ago

2026/02/24

Sahan Weerasooriya

A few highlights from the NAVI Launch event.

HNB Assurance PLC recently introduced NAVI, The Digital Trainer, a new AI-powered training companion designed to support its banca staff with instant, reliable access to knowledge, whenever they need it. The solution was unveiled at Partnership Life, the company’s annual forum dedicated to celebrating the performance of its Partnership Channel.

Built to make learning simpler and more accessible, NAVI is a voice-enabled AI chatbot that helps banca staff quickly find product information, policy details, and process-related guidance by drawing from a centralized knowledge bank. Whether on the go or at the point of customer interaction, NAVI ensures that answers are never out of reach.

Sharing his thoughts, Sanesh Fernando, Chief Business Officer / GM – Partnership Channel at HNB Assurance, opined, “With NAVI, our intention is to make learning a part of everyday conversations. By combining chat and voice capabilities, we are making it easier for our officers to learn on demand and perform with greater confidence.” He further noted that it is this continuous focus on meaningful innovation that has consistently set HNB Assurance apart within the bancassurance space. “Solutions like NAVI reflect the way we think and operate as a Partnership Channel. This commitment to enabling our partners and bancassurance officers through practical, forward-thinking initiatives has been a key driver in our journey, one that has seen us being recognized as the Best Life Bancassurance Provider for five consecutive years, while also delivering strong and sustained growth year after year.”

Commenting on the launch, Suneth Jayamanne, Chief Information Officer / GM of HNB Assurance, said, “We see NAVI as a support system rather than a piece of technology. Our Bancassurance officers operate in fast-paced environments and having instant access to the right information can make all the difference. NAVI is about helping our people feel more prepared, more confident, and more connected to the knowledge they need to serve customers better.”

The launch of NAVI was marked by an engaging reveal featuring an AI-generated avatar that introduced the digital trainer and its capabilities, symbolizing a shift towards a more intuitive and people-friendly approach to learning.

As HNB Assurance continues to expand its Partnership Channel, innovations such as NAVI highlights the company’s focus on building strong, well-supported partnerships, blending technology with a deep understanding of how people learn, and work.

HNB Assurance PLC (HNBA) is one of the fastest growing Insurance Companies in Sri Lanka with a network of 79 branches. HNBA is a Life Insurance company with a rating of ‘A’ (lka) by Fitch Ratings Lanka for ‘National Insurer Financial Strength Rating’. Following the introduction of the segregation rules by the Insurance Regulator, HNB General Insurance Limited (HNBGI) was created and commenced its operations in January 2015; HNBGI continues to specialize in motor, non-motor and Takaful insurance solutions and is a fully owned subsidiary of HNB Assurance PLC. HNB General Insurance has been assigned a ‘National Insurer Financial Strength Rating’ of ‘A’ (lka) by Fitch Ratings Lanka Limited. HNBA is rated within the Top 100 brands and Top 100 companies in Sri Lanka by LMD and HNB Assurance has won international awards for Brand Excellence, Digital Marketing and HR Excellence including the Great Place To Work® Certification, and won many awards for its Annual Reports at award ceremonies organized by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka.