Business
Fitch Ratings affirms National Long-Term Rating of Dialog Axiata at ‘AAA (lka)’, Outlook Stable
The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect Fitch’s view that Dialog will be able to maintain a credit profile commensurate with a ‘AAA(lka)’ rating in the next 12-18 months, despite lower demand for telecom services, escalating costs and a significant increase in the company’s debt amid the Sri Lankan rupee’s devaluation.
Dialog’s rating is driven by its Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) of ‘aaa(lka)’, which reflects its market leadership across mobile, pay-TV and home-broadband (HBB) segments, better execution and network capability and a solid financial profile, offset to an extent by the high exposure of its revenue to the weak Sri Lankan market.
KEY RATING DRIVERS Weak Demand in 2023: We expect Dialog’s revenue growth to slow to around 10% in 2023, from 25% in 2022, amid weakening consumer spending. Consumers are increasingly prioritising essential needs, such as food and medicine, as real income has plunged following the currency depreciation and unprecedently high inflation. Dialog faced pressure on subscriber numbers and usage minutes in 2022. Telecom operators raised voice and data tariffs by 20% and pay-TV by 25% in 2022 to pass through the escalating costs, reducing the services’ affordability.
We believe the recent increases in telecom taxes would also discourage demand as consumers now have to pay 38% tax on voice and 20% on data. Sri Lanka currently has one of the highest telecom tax structures in Asia. To mitigate its domestic market exposure, Dialog is increasingly focusing on its international businesses and enterprise clients, who are somewhat immune to the local environment. The contribution from the international business climbed to 23% in 2022, from 16%17% earlier.
Market Leadership: Dialog is the domestic market leader across mobile, pay-TV and HBB segments. The competition within the mobile segment has intensified in recent months amid the falling demand, with some of the smaller operators aggressively cutting prices. However, we do not believe such a strategy is sustainable as the smaller telcos do not have the network capability, service quality or the financial strength to compete with operators such as Dialog.
Low Profitability: We expect Dialog’s EBITDA margin to improve to around 30%32% over 2023-2024 from 28% in 2022, benefitting from the recent tariff hikes and cost rationalisation measures. Dialog’s EBITDA margin contracted by 12 percentage points in 2022 amid the high inflation and currency depreciation. Around 52% of Dialog’s direct costs are in foreign currency (FC) compared with only 30% of its revenue, exposing the company to currency volatility.
Dialog expects to streamline its costs by consolidating its facilities, optimising its network and rationalising overheads, but we do not believe this will be sufficient to improve margins to the 39%-40% levels before 2022. The low realisation of the recent tariff hikes amid the drop in usage and increased contribution from the lowmargin international business would also mean margins would remain in the low-tomid 30s range in the next few years.
High Foreign-Currency Debt: Around 91% of Dialog’s outstanding debt was in FC at end-2022. The depreciation of the rupee by almost 80% in 2022 materially increased Dialog’s FC debt exposure, while it had to raise more FC debt to fund capex amid the FC shortage in Sri Lanka. We do not believe Dialog’s current FC revenue is sufficient to meet its FC debt obligations, but the company does not have any FC debt repayments due in the next 24 months. Dialog has USD41 million in FC deposits to meet its FC interest costs of around USD12 million per year.
Balance-Sheet Restructuring: Dialog is planning to manage its currency exposure by reducing the FC debt to less than 50% of its outstanding debt by end-2023. It is considering asset monetisation and alternative funding arrangements with existing lenders to achieve a more balanced funding mix. The higher debt stock also raised Dialog’s EBITDA net leverage to 1.3x in 2022, from 0.4x in 2021. We expect leverage to remain around 1.0x until there is a sustainable recovery in margins.
Positive FCF from 2024: We expect Dialog to generate negative free cash flow (FCF) in 2023 amid low profitability and high capex. Dialog’s capex has risen due to the currency devaluation as most of the equipment is imported. Therefore, we expect capex intensity to rise to around 27% of revenue in the next few years from around 23% earlier. Capex will be spent mostly on mobile and fixed-data capacity expansion to cater to the growing demand. Dialog’s FCF should turn positive from 2024, once EBITDA margins gradually recover.
Support from Strong Parent: Our assessment of ‘Medium’ legal and strategic support incentive from its stronger parent, Axiata Group Berhad, would result in a potential two-notch uplift to its rating if its SCP were to weaken, according to our Parent and Subsidiary Linkage Rating Criteria. Axiata guaranteed around 45% of Dialog’s debt as of end-2022. The subsidiary makes a reasonably material financial contribution to the parent, with moderate long-term growth potential. The operational support incentive is ‘Weak’ due to minimal operating synergies with the parent.
Sector Outlook Deteriorating: Fitch expects the average 2023 net debt/EBITDA ratio for Dialog and fixed-line leader Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLT, A(lka)/Stable) to weaken to 1.4x in 2023 (2022E: 1.2x) amid weak margins and high capex. We expect sector revenue growth to slow to 8% in 2023 (2022E: 15%), while theaverage 2023 EBITDA margin for SLT and Dialog will remain flat at 32% (2021: 38% and 2022E: 32%) amid low usage and high costs.
Business
HNB Life reports 54% surge in gross written premium for Q1 2026
HNB Life PLC has delivered a robust performance in the first quarter of 2026, recording a 54% year-on-year increase in Gross Written Premium (GWP) to Rs. 7.01 billion, up from Rs. 4.55 billion in Q1 2025. Net Written Premium rose by a matching 54% to Rs. 6.69 billion, reflecting strong new business generation and policy persistency.
Total net income grew 39% to Rs. 8.69 billion, supported by solid underwriting and steady investment income, including Rs. 2.05 billion from interest and dividends. The company’s balance sheet remains resilient, with total assets reaching Rs. 71.38 billion and the Life Insurance Fund expanding to Rs. 52.55 billion.
Profit after tax stood at Rs. 0.21 billion, though profitability was tempered by a low-interest rate environment and fair value fluctuations in the equity portfolio. No surplus transfer from the Life Insurance Fund has been made yet, as this typically follows year-end valuation.
Chairman Stuart Chapman attributed the momentum to the company’s recent rebranding and its strategic alignment with the Hatton National Bank Group. CEO Lasitha Wimalaratne emphasized disciplined execution, digital enablement, and enhanced distribution as key drivers.
HNB Life, rated ‘A’ (lka) by Fitch, marks 25 years as one of Sri Lanka’s fastest-growing life insurers, operating 79 branches nationwide. The company remains well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth.
Business
ADB Samarkand spirit demands immediate radical shift in Sri Lanka national mindset
The atmosphere in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, during the 59th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was nothing short of electric. Walking through the Silk Road Samarkand complex – a venue steeped in the history of ancient global trade – one could easily feel the weight of past legacies. “More pressing, however, was the palpable urgency of the future, as the halls of the Congress Center resonated with strategic discussions on ‘Asia’s Second Growth Leap.'” The global narrative was unmistakable: the talk of post-crisis recovery was no longer relevant. For Sri Lanka, the echoing message from Samarkand was both a warning and an invitation: the transition from an aid-recipient mindset to a competitive global partner is no longer a choice. It is our only survival mechanism.
While delegates from across the region shared aggressive blueprints for economic acceleration, the absence of Sri Lankan policymakers was a stark reality. Other Asian nations did not speak of mere “potential”; they spoke of velocity.
In Samarkand, the ancient gateway of the Silk Road, the irony was impossible to ignore. As regional leaders debated the deployment of an Interconnected Pan-Asia Grid to revolutionise energy integration, discussed how deep capital markets must drive development, and outlined strategies to scale up investments from critical minerals to advanced manufacturing value chains, a troubling realisation set in. The world is moving at lightning speed on digital highways for inclusive growth, yet Sri Lanka remains haunted by the ghost of political and bureaucratic “dilly-dallying.”
The true “Samarkand Spirit” demands an immediate, radical shift in our national mindset. Sri Lanka must aggressively shed its “crisis” label. The high-level discourse in Uzbekistan focused entirely on how emerging economies can stop begging for economic concessions and start delivering regional solutions.
Whether the focus was on maximising opportunities within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) or financing large-scale offshore wind projects, the core directive for our nation remained constant: Sri Lanka must stop looking for a hand-out and start building an economic bridge.
The ADB has laid out the catalytic pathway for the Asia-Pacific’s second growth phase. The infrastructure, the capital, and the frameworks are ready. The burning question for Sri Lanka’s policymakers is simple: Are we ready to execute, or are we content with stagnation?
Leaving Uzbekistan, the takeaway for our leadership is vivid and uncompromising. Decisive action is the sole currency of the new Asian century.
To bridge the gap between the historic Silk Road and the strategic Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka must:
Accelerate Digitisation: Swiftly overhaul bureaucratic frameworks to create a seamless, trusted digital economy.
Integrate Energy Grid Connectivity: Boldly plug into the regional grid networks discussed at the summit to resolve long-term energy insecurity.
Plug into Global Supply Chains: Pivot aggressively toward high-value manufacturing and regional trade agreements.
The 59th ADB Annual Meeting proved that the international community is ready to partner with a competitive, forward-thinking Sri Lanka. We possess the geographic location and the inherent talent. Now, post-Samarkand, we have the definitive roadmap.
The “Second Leap” of the Asia-Pacific region is already in motion. The ultimate test for Sri Lanka’s policymakers is whether they will lead the country into this dynamic new era or leave us observing fruitlessly from the sidelines.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
First drop in new business in three years: The hidden warning in Sri Lanka’s April PMI
Here is the point that carries more weight than the headline PMI figures released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. While much of April’s contraction in manufacturing (42.6) and services (46.7) was dismissed as seasonal — the Sinhala and Tamil New Year holidays, fewer working days, fading festive demand — the rupture in new business flows tells a different, more troubling tale.
April 2026 marked the first month since April 2023 that services sector new business contracted. Not a slowdown. Not a plateau. An outright decline. Nor was it narrow in scope. The deterioration cut across transportation of goods, insurance, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation, food and beverage service activities.
The Island Financial Review asked an independent analyst for his take. Here is what he said.
“These are not fringe sub-sectors; they are the arteries of Sri Lanka’s domestic economy. Why does this matter beyond the seasonal logic? Because new business is a leading indicator. What falls today in new orders will show up tomorrow in production, employment and stock purchases. April’s drop in new business — the first in three full years — suggests that May’s anticipated recovery may be shallower than hoped, and that a return above the neutral 50 PMI threshold before June is unlikely unless geopolitical tensions ease sharply.”
“Compounding the concern, the decline in new business was not an isolated Sri Lankan phenomenon. It arrived alongside two external shocks: rising energy prices, which hammered transport and personal services, and the ongoing Middle East conflict, which lengthened supplier delivery times and added logistical friction.”
“To be sure, expectations over the next three months remain positive. Firms hope for a stabilisation following the end of the war. But the first decline in new business in three years is a quiet alarm. Seasonal patterns explain April’s production dip. They do not explain why customers stopped placing new orders. For Sri Lanka’s policymakers and business leaders, that is the story to watch in May,” he said.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
-
News6 days agoEx-SriLankan CEO’s death: Controversy surrounds execution of bail bond
-
Features2 days agoSri Lankan Airlines Airbus Scandal and the Death of Kapila Chandrasena and my Brother Rajeewa
-
Features7 days agoHigh Stakes in Pursuing corruption cases
-
News3 days agoLanka’s eligibility to draw next IMF tranche of USD 700 mn hinges on ‘restoration of cost-recovery pricing for electricity and fuel’
-
Features7 days agoWhen University systems fail:Supreme Court’s landmark intervention in sexual harassment case
-
Midweek Review6 days agoA victory that can never be forgotten
-
News2 days agoKapila Chandrasena case: GN phone records under court scrutiny
-
Features4 days agoMysterious Death of United Nations Secretary General Hammarskjöld
