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Endurance, not speed, may decide Iran conflict: analyst
The conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is increasingly being shaped by two sharply different strategic assumptions about what “victory” means, according to Middle East scholar Mehran Kamrava of Georgetown University in Qatar.
Kamrava, who was interviewed by Euro News yesterday, said the crisis escalated after diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington faltered, while political calculations in both capitals pushed the situation toward confrontation.
“A couple of things went wrong diplomatically,” Kamrava said, pointing to tensions between the administration of Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership, as well as the strategic calculations of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to Kamrava, the Israeli leadership had long treated the earlier phase of the confrontation as unfinished business, while negotiations between Tehran and Washington failed to bridge fundamental differences. Washington sought direct talks and a swift resolution to concerns over Iran’s nuclear activities, while Tehran insisted on negotiating on its own terms and at a slower pace.
That mismatch, Kamrava suggested, combined with what he described as the unpredictability of decision-making in the Trump White House, ultimately contributed to the escalation now unfolding.
Kamrava said the United States and Israel appear to have entered the confrontation expecting a rapid and decisive outcome, where large-scale strikes and the ‘showy’ destruction of military assets would quickly weaken Iran.
“But Iran has a very different assumption about the war, ” he said.
For Tehran, he explained, the ability to withstand pressure and continue functioning politically and militarily may itself constitute victory. Rather than seeking a swift battlefield decision, Iran’s strategy may be to prolong the conflict and increase the costs for its adversaries over time.
“If they drag it out,” Kamrava said, Iran could aim to grind down American and Israeli resolve while gradually increasing the pressure on them.
“So, what we see are two very different approaches to the war,” Kamrava said. “At this point, the question is: who is going to blink first?”
The conflict has also unfolded against the backdrop of uncertainty within Iran’s political leadership.
Following reports of the death of Iran’s long-time Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, attention has turned to the role of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has largely disappeared from public view.
Kamrava argued, however, that Iran’s political system was deliberately designed to maintain operational continuity even during leadership crises.
Military decisions, he said, continue to be made by institutional structures, including the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular armed forces.
Even the death of senior figures such as Ali Larijani, who had headed Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, would not necessarily disrupt decision-making.
“The system continues to function,” Kamrava said, noting that operational authority in wartime is distributed across several institutions rather than concentrated solely in one individual.
Meanwhile, the conflict is beginning to reverberate inside the United States. The decision by the Trump administration to launch strikes against Tehran in support of Israel’s efforts to weaken the Islamic Republic has exposed divisions within the president’s political base.
The resignation of former top counter-terrorism official Joe Kent has added to those tensions, highlighting growing debate among Trump’s supporters about the risks of deeper American involvement in another Middle Eastern conflict.
For now, analysts say the trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain.
If the United States and Israel continue to pursue rapid military gains while Iran focuses on endurance and gradual escalation, the confrontation could evolve into a prolonged geopolitical contest rather than a short war.
In that scenario, Kamrava suggested, the outcome may hinge less on battlefield victories and more on political will.
Ultimately, Kamrava said, the defining question may be simple: which side blinks first.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
News
Women’s T20 World Cup 2026 warm-up: Chamari Athapaththu’s 94 helps Sri Lanka beat Pakistan
Captain Chamari Athapaththu’s 94 helped Sri Lanka chase down 169 with ease against Pakistan. Athapaththu and Vishmi Gunaratne together started strongly, putting up a 159-run stand as Sri Lanka won with eight balls to spare.
With the ball, right-arm seamer Chethana Vimukthi, who was called up as the injured Shashini Gimhani’s replacement. for the T20 World Cup, made an impact for Sri Lanka, finishing with figures of 4 for 31. Vimukthi broke the 60-run stand between openers Muneeba Ali and Gull Feroza, following which Pakistan lost wickets regularly. Captain Fatima Sana top-scored for Pakistan from No. 7 with 37 to push the total past 150. In reply, Sri Lanka made easy work of the chase, with Athapaththu itting five sixes and nine fours in her 56-ball stay.
Scores:
Sri Lanka Women 169 for 1 in 18.4 overs (Chamari Athapaththu 94, Vishmi Gunaratne 63*; Fatima Sana 1-20 ) beat Pakistan Women 168 for 8 in 20 overs (Muneesha Ali 36, Gull Feroza 26. Ayesha Zafar 10, Saira Jabeen 12, Fatima Sana 37, Aliya Riyaaz 22; Sugandika Kumari 1-33, Chethana Vimukthi 4-31, Malki Madara 1-19, Nimasha Meepage 1-16) by nine wickets
(Cricinfo)
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Open hearing on coal procurement inquiry set for July first week
Open hearing of evidence into alleged irregularities in coal procurement is scheduled to begin in the first week of July, while the Presidential Commission of Inquiry continues recording statements from relevant officials, investigators said.
So far, the Commission has recorded statements from around 40 government officials, including members of procurement committees and other personnel attached to institutions involved in coal-related transactions.
Officials said that, depending on evidence gathered during the ongoing inquiry, statements may also be obtained from former ministers if required.
The Commission has also received 28 complaints in connection with alleged irregularities in coal imports and related procurement processes.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake on April 17 appointed a three-member Presidential Commission of Inquiry under the Special Presidential Commissions of Inquiry Act No. 07 of 1978 to probe alleged malpractice in coal imports and electricity generation since the inception of coal-based power generation up to April 16, 2026.
The Commission is chaired by Supreme Court Justice Gihan Kulatunga, with Court of Appeal Judge Aditya Patabendige and High Court Judge Sanjeewa Somaratne serving as members. Former State Ministry Secretary P.V. Bandulasena acts as Secretary to the Commission.
The inquiry covers alleged procurement irregularities, possible financial losses to the State, import of substandard coal, quality inspection failures, contractual breaches and operational issues in power generation, including whether corrective measures were taken where necessary.
It will also identify responsible political authorities, officials of Sri Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited and suppliers, while recommending legal or administrative action and measures to prevent future lapses.
Meanwhile, the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) is also preparing to table its report on coal procurement in Parliament, with officials from relevant institutions having been summoned during its proceedings. COPE Chairman MP Dr. Nishantha Samaraweera said audit findings had also been considered, and any matters requiring further investigation would be referred to law enforcement and anti-corruption authorities.
News
TNA MP calls for complete repeal of PTA
Trincomalee District TNA MP Shanakiyan Rasamanickam has submitted a motion to Parliament calling for the immediate repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), arguing that the controversial law has enabled arbitrary detention, torture and the targeting of minority communities for more than four decades.
In his motion, now published in the Addendum to the Order Book of Parliament, the MP urged the Government to repeal the Prevention of Terrorism Act, No. 48 of 1979, in its entirety and refrain from introducing any replacement legislation containing similar provisions.
Rasamanickam contended that the PTA had been used for over 40 years to facilitate prolonged arbitrary detention and to obtain false confessions through torture. He further alleged that the law had disproportionately affected minority communities and civil society groups.
The motion states that there is no justification for maintaining a permanent counter-terrorism law that grants sweeping powers to the authorities.
The TNA legislator argued that existing legal provisions were sufficient to address security threats, noting that terrorism-related offences could already be prosecuted under the Penal Code.
He also pointed out that the Government retained the power to declare a state of emergency when circumstances warranted extraordinary measures, rendering a permanent anti-terrorism framework unnecessary.
Accordingly, the motion calls on Parliament to resolve that the Government take immediate steps to abolish the PTA without replacing it with legislation containing comparable powers.
The Prevention of Terrorism Act, enacted in 1979, has long been the subject of criticism from human rights organisations, civil society groups and international bodies, which have raised concerns over provisions relating to detention without trial and safeguards against abuse.
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