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Election ’24: Rajapaksa Implosion and Red Sea Meddling

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by Rajan Philips

A defining condition of the elections this year (Election ’24), in my view, is the implosion of the Rajapaksas. They have been a fixture and a dominant factor in every election after the 2005 presidential election that Mahinda Rajapaksa managed to win by the narrowest of margins thanks to the election boycott imposed by the LTTE in the northern and eastern provinces. The ‘wheel of time’, as the late TULF leader Amirthalingam (whose own wheel was cut short by the LTTE) was wont to say drawing on the circular concept of time in Indian religions, would seem to have come a full circle for the elections this year.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was narrowly defeated in 2005, is all set for his last hurrah in 2024. The Rajapaksas, who have dominated the island’s politics for the first quarter of the 21st century, are all set for their political obituaries. But the ripple effects of their collapse will implicate the contest and the outcome of the presidential election expected in September and the parliamentary election expected to follow not long after.

In the 2019 presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa polled 6.9 million votes against Sajith Premadasa’s 5.6 million votes. Anura Kumara Dissanayake polled 418,550 votes. The Rajapaksa implosion means that the 6.9 million votes that went to Gotabaya Rajapaksa are now up for grabs. Who will be the main beneficiary? That is going to be the campaign question in the months ahead, and which way the erstwhile Rajapaksa votes break will be a significant factor in the final result.

Red Sea Meddling

I do not think ‘foreign involvement’ will be a key factor in the election, especially in influencing the 6.9 million who voted for Rajapaksa last time to make up their mind about whom to vote for this time. Mahinda Rajapaksa never stopped blaming everyone outside the country, especially India, for causing his defeat in the 2015 presidential election, which he should not have contested.

Foreign meddling talk was palpable nonsense. The same nonsense is being parroted by still lingering MR admirers, who see a foreign hand behind the emergence of Aragalaya but who conveniently forget that by the same logic the US could have road-blocked the GR candidacy. And everyone including Gotabaya Rajapaksa would have been spared of the calamity he created as president.

While there might not be a foreign hand in the upcoming election, that is not going to stop Ranil Wickremesinghe from claiming that only he can play his hand outside Sri Lanka on behalf of Sri Lanka unlike any of his rivals. His promoters are already onto it, and Mr. Wickremesinghe himself seems to be wanting to show it off with his frequent flying missions overseas. He has already made two trips in January, first to Switzerland (for Davos) and now to Uganda (for the Non-Aligned summit), adding to the 13 trips prior since becoming interim president. Someone has even started a Wikipedia account on Mr. Wickremesinghe’s presidential travels.

Whether any of this will help getting votes in large numbers is a different question. Among what might be called knowledgeable political circles in Sri Lanka, Mr. Wickremesinghe is likely acknowledged as the Sri Lankan political leader with the most international recognition. But he runs the risk of overdoing it and getting boomeranged for it.

The proposed mission to join the US led naval operations for protecting commercial ships in the Red Sea is a case in point. Rather than getting the country to punch above its weight, Mr. Wickremesinghe would seem to be implicating Sri Lanka in unnecessary foreign meddling, which would only annoy the Arab world and getting nothing in return from anyone else. It would be quite a reversal after years of Rajapaksa grumbling about foreign meddling targeting them.

The Red Sea crisis only illustrates the dangerous impasse that Israel’s intransigence in Gaza has drawn the Middle East. The crisis seems unstoppable from spilling over. Even South Africa’s bold decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice alleging genocide and asking for provisional measures has not been able to deter the Netanyahu government. On Friday, Mr. Netanyahu publicly rejected even the idea of a Palestinian state that the US has been hoping to create in return for its support of Israel’s unrestricted right of defence.

The US has isolated itself in supporting Israel, and it has few supporters for the Operation Prosperity Guardian it has launched against the Houthis in the Red Sea. Even the US’s NATO allies are keeping away from the US naval operation. The leaking trouble finds Iran and Pakistan raiding each other’s territory to kill one’s terrorist enemies allegedly harboured by the other.

What contribution is Mr. Wickremesinghe trying to make by meddling in these matters? Is he going to solicit support from Non Aligned countries to align with the US? These are questions to President Wickremesinghe and to his campaign organizers even though they would serve no purpose as election questions for Sri Lankan voters.

The Post Rajapaksa Vote

Apart from international recognition, Mr. Wickremesinghe is also being promoted not so much as a UNP candidate, but as the candidate of a yet to be shaped ‘grand alliance.’ The only grandness that one can find until now is the number of SLPP Ministers and MPs in parliament who will rally round the Wickremesinghe candidacy. Even the Rajapaksa family seems to be coming around to sponsoring Ranil Wickremesinghe as ‘their’ candidate. Dhammika Perera might be finally finding out that there are still things in Sri Lanka that money alone cannot buy.

But will all the familial sponsorships and grand alliance gimmicks be enough to translate into a first round victory for Ranil Wickremesinghe? We come to the same question again and will be constrained to keep coming until the elections are over.

Ranil Wickremesinghe has not contested a presidential election after his loss to Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2005. How many of the 6.9 million who voted for Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR) will Mr. Wickremesinghe be able to peel off to his tally, considering that about four million of them may have never voted UNP in the past? The GR vote is not the only one that is going to be divvied up. The 5.6 million votes that Sajith Premadasa polled will also be split between Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe who was upstaged from being a candidate in 2019 by Mr. Premadasa. The two men will also compete for the lion share of the Rajapaksa vote. It might be too late to prevent a contest between, which could only happen by Sajith Premadasa being persuaded to stand down. Unlikely, even with foreign meddling.

The multi-million vote question is of course how Anura Kumara Dissanayake is going to jump from less than half a million votes in 2019 to more than seven million in 2024? Of all the three candidates, Anura Kumara Dissanayake is the only one who appears to be having a somewhat nationwide mass appeal for the election. Is that enough to be cashed into six to seven million plus votes if he is to pass the 50% mark?

The last time a Left Party in Sri Lanka ran a campaign believing that it would win the election to form a new government was in March 1960 for what was then only the parliamentary election. That was the LSSP’s campaign and the belief that NM Perera would get the call from the Governor General to form a new government. Election posters all over the country showed a smiling NM holding the phone to his ear. There was no call from Sir Oliver Goonetilleke, and what came after is now part of history. Now there is no Governor General, only Ranil Wickremesinghe making all the calls.

The JVP was born out of that history of the late 1960s, and tried its own method to capture power through other means, not once but twice, with failures and setbacks both times. It first entered the electoral fray in the first presidential election in 1982, and its leader and candidate Rohana Wijeweera polled a hardly significant tally of 273,428 votes. After 37 years, in the 2019 presidential election Anura Kumara Dissanayake obtained 418,553 votes, an increase of 145,000 votes whereas the number of registered in the country doubled from eight million to 16 million.

The highest number of votes that the JVP has recorded since 1982, is 815,000 and it was in the 2001 parliamentary election. It may have fared better in the 2004 parliamentary election, but then the JVP was part of an SLFP-lead alliance. A seven million leap seems like a bridge too far, even with exciting opinion polling. But nothing is impossible although a great deal of organizational infrastructure will be needed to effect such a massive turnaround.

It is far too early even to speculate how the three candidates will likely fare in the election. As of now none of them is a runaway candidate. It is possible that for the first time in a presidential election there may not be a winner after the first count and additional counts of second/third preference votes may be required to declare the winner. It is also possible that campaign momentum could change and one of the candidates could break free ahead of the other two.

The three-way split of the Rajapaksa vote will likely be influenced by the national momentum of the three campaigns and the regional/districts strengths of the three candidates. Going by past election results, Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa would likely attempt to consolidate their support in the Western, North-Western, Central, Northern and Eastern provinces. To get as many as seven million votes, Anura Kumara Dissanayake will have to vigorously campaign everywhere and extend the NPP branches nationally from the traditional JVP roots in the Southern, Sabaragamuwa, North-Central and Uva provinces.

The Rajapaksa vote was mostly concentrated among the majority Sinhala Buddhist sections of the population. The three candidates will also be vying, unlike the Rajapaksas, for the non- Sinhala Buddhist voting blocs. Although the supporters of Ranil Wickremesinghe will fancy his chances among the minorities, there is no certainty that he would do well as his supporters expect him to do. The Tamils in the north and east and the Sinhala Catholics will likely be lukewarm at best in their support for him. And he will have competition from the other two candidates for all sections of the minority vote.

Hopefully, at the national level the three campaigns will focus on policy issues and not platitudes. The issues of the economy, political corruption, constitutional changes and power devolution should figure prominently in the campaigns. It would be a challenge for every one of the three candidates to present a platform that clearly differentiates it from the other two. No one seems to have caught the imagination of the voting public in an exciting debate on any or all of the major issues.

The JVP’s popularity in opinion polls would suggest that its campaign is resonating with the people, but as the campaign hits the home stretch there will be expectations for more details and demonstration of competence. Sajith Premadasa will have to find a way to campaign without losing himself in his rhetoric, and Ranil Wickremesinghe should try hard not to come across as the only know it all. As they campaign for the Rajapaksa vote, it will be interesting to see if or how they will critique the recent Rajapaksa past. And if the Rajapaksas were to formally endorse Ranil Wickremesinghe, would they be invited to join him on the campaign trail? Will they turn out to be an electoral asset or albatross?



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Illegal solar push ravages Hambantota elephant habitat: Environmentalist warns of deepening crisis

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Land earmarked for the project

A large-scale move to establish solar power plants in Hambantota has triggered a major environmental and social crisis, with more than 1,000 acres of forest—identified as critical elephant habitat—cleared in violation of the law, environmental activist Sajeewa Chamikara said.

Chamikara, speaking on behalf of the Movement for Land and Agricultural Reform, said that 17 companies have already begun clearing forest land along the boundaries of the Hambantota Elephant Management Reserve. The affected areas include Sanakku Gala, Orukemgala and Kapapu Wewa, which are known to be key elephant habitats and long-used movement corridors.

He said that what is taking place cannot be described as development, but rather as a large-scale destruction of natural ecosystems carried out under the cover of renewable energy expansion.

According to Chamikara, the clearing of forests has been carried out using heavy machinery, while large sections have also been deliberately set on fire to prepare the land for solar installations. He said that electric fences have been erected across wide stretches of land, effectively blocking elephant movement and fragmenting their natural habitat.

“These forests are not empty lands. They are part of a living system that supports wildlife and nearby communities. Once destroyed, they cannot be easily restored,” he said.

The projects in question include a 50 megawatt solar development undertaken by five companies and a larger 150 megawatt project implemented by 12 companies. The larger project is reported to be valued at around 150 million US dollars.

Chamikara stressed that these projects are being carried out in a coordinated manner and involve extensive land clearing on a scale that raises serious environmental concerns.

He further alleged that certain companies had paid about Rs. 14 million to secure support and move ahead with the projects. He said this points to a troubling failure of oversight by state institutions that are expected to protect forests and wildlife habitats.

“This is not only an environmental issue. It is also a serious governance issue. The institutions responsible for protecting these lands have failed in their duty,” he said.

Chamikara pointed out that under the National Environmental Act, any project of this scale must receive prior approval through a proper Environmental Impact Assessment process.

He said that clearing forest land before obtaining such approval is a direct violation of the law.

He added that legal requirements relating to archaeological assessments had also been ignored. Under existing regulations, large-scale land clearing requires prior evaluation to ensure that sites of historical or cultural value are not damaged.

“The law is very clear. You cannot go ahead with projects of this nature without proper approval. What we are seeing is a complete disregard for legal procedure,” Chamikara said.

The environmental impact of these activities is already becoming visible. With their natural habitats destroyed, elephants are increasingly moving into nearby villages in search of food and shelter. This has led to a sharp rise in human-elephant conflict in several areas.

Areas such as Mayurapura, Gonnooruwa, Meegahajandura and Thanamalvila have reported increasing encounters between humans and elephants. According to Chamikara, more than 5,000 farming families in these areas are now facing growing threats to their safety and livelihoods.

 

He warned that farmers are being forced to abandon their lands due to repeated elephant intrusions, while incidents involving damage to crops and property are rising. There have also been increasing reports of injuries and deaths among both humans and elephants.

“This is turning into a serious social and economic problem. When farmers cannot cultivate their lands, it affects food production, income and rural stability,” he said.

Chamikara also raised concerns about the broader environmental consequences of clearing forests for solar power projects. While renewable energy is promoted as a solution to reduce carbon emissions, he said that destroying forests undermines that goal.

“Forests play a key role in absorbing carbon dioxide. When you clear and burn them, you are increasing emissions, not reducing them. That defeats the purpose of promoting solar energy,” he explained.

He added that large-scale deforestation in dry zone areas such as Hambantota could also affect local weather patterns and reduce rainfall, which would have further negative impacts on agriculture and water resources.

Chamikara called for a shift in policy, urging authorities to focus on more sustainable approaches to solar power development. He said that rooftop solar systems on homes, public buildings and commercial establishments should be given priority, as they do not require clearing large areas of land.

He also recommended that solar projects be located on degraded or abandoned lands, such as areas affected by past mining or other low-value lands, rather than forests or productive agricultural areas.

“Renewable energy development must be done in a way that does not destroy the environment. There are better options available if there is proper planning,” he said.

Chamikara urged the Central Environmental Authority and the Department of Wildlife Conservation to take immediate action to stop ongoing land clearing and investigate the projects. He stressed that all activities carried out without proper approval should be halted until legal requirements are met.

He warned that failure to act now would lead to long-term environmental damage that could not be reversed.

“If this continues, we will lose not only forests and wildlife, but also the balance between people and nature that supports rural life. The consequences will be felt for generations,” he said.

The situation in Hambantota is fast emerging as a critical test of whether development goals can be balanced with environmental protection. As pressure grows, the response of authorities in the coming weeks is likely to determine whether the damage can still be contained or whether it will continue to spread unchecked.

By Ifham Nizam

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Why Mahatma Gandhi’s teachings need to be at the heart of conflict resolution

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Mahatma Gandhi

All credit to the Tamil Nadu government for taking concrete measures to perpetuate the memory of the renowned Mahatma Gandhi of India, who on account of his moral teachings stands on par with the likes of Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Confucius and Jalaluddin Rumi, to name a few such all-time greats. The time is indeed ripe to draw the world’s attention to the Mahatma’s humanistic legacy which has resonated in the hearts of peace-oriented sections the world over down the decades.

Under its mega developmental blueprint titled ‘ Tamil Nadu 2030’, the Tamil Nadu government, among other things, intends transforming villages into centres of economic growth in conformity with the Mahatma’s vision of making the village the fundamental unit of material and spiritual advancement. Thus will come into being the ‘Uttamar Gandhi Model Villages Project’, which will be initially covering 10 village Panchayats. (Please see page 3 of The Island of March 11, 2026).

The timeliness of remembering and appreciating anew the teachings of Mahatma Gandhi resides in the utter lawlessness that has been allowed to overtake the world over the last few decades by none other than those global powers which took it upon themselves to usher in a world political and economic order based on the UN Charter and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Mainly in ‘the dock’ in this regard are the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

As is plain to see, the international law and order situation has veered out of control. Principal priorities for the international community or what’s left of it is to prevent the current mainly regional war in the Middle East from degenerating dangerously into another world war, coupled with the task of eliminating the possibility of another nuclear holocaust.

The most scorching of ironies is that the world’s ‘number one power’, the US, has virtually lost its way in the ‘Global Disorder’ it has been party to letting lose. For instance, instead of making good its boast of militarily neutralizing Iran and paving the way for the constant flow of fuel and gas from the Strait of Hormus by itself and Israel, it is now appealing to the rest of the West to come to its assistance. Not surprisingly, US allies are indicating their unwillingness to help pull the US’ ‘chestnuts out of the fire’.

Oil and gas are the veritable life blood of countries and going ahead it should not come as a surprise if impatience gets the better of the major powers and the nuclear option is resorted to by some of them under the dangerous illusion that it would be a quick-fix to their growing economic ills and frustrations.

All the above and more are within the realms of the possible and the need is pressing for humanistic voices to take centre stage in the present runaway crisis. As pointed out in this column last week, Realpolitik has overtaken the world and unless the latter is convinced of the self-destructive nature of the major powers’ policy of ‘meeting fire with fire’ to resolve their disputes, annihilation could be the lot of a good part of the world.

For far too long the voice of humanity has been muted and silenced in the affairs of the world by the incendiary threats and counter-threats of the big powers and their allies. No quarter has been bold enough in these blood pressure-hiking slanging matches to speak of the need for brotherly love and compassion among nations and countries. But it’s the language of love and understanding that is the most pressing need currently and the Mahatma in his time did just that against mighty odds.

At present the US and Iran are trading threats and accusations over military-related developments in the Gulf and it’s anybody’s guess as to what turn these events will take. However, calming voices of humanity and moderation would help in deescalating tensions and such voices need to go to the assistance of the UN chief and his team.

The Mahatma used the technique of ‘Satyagraha’ or the policy of non-violent resistance to oppose and dis-empower to a degree the British empire in his time and the current major powers would do well to take a leaf from Gandhi. The latter also integrated into the strategy of non-violent resistance the policy of ‘Ahimsa’ or love and understanding which helped greatly in uniting rather than alienating adversaries. The language of love, it has been proved, speaks to the hearts and minds of people and has a profoundly healing impact.

Mahatma Gandhi defined the ideal of ‘Ahimsa’ thus: ‘In its positive form, “Ahimsa” means the largest love, the greatest charity. If I am a follower of “Ahimsa”, I must love my enemy or a stranger to me as I would my wrong-doing father or son. This active “Ahimsa” necessarily includes truth and fearlessness.’ (See; ‘Modern Indian Political Thought; Text and Context’ by Bidyut Chakrabarty and Rajendra Kumar Pandey, Sage Publications India, Pvt. Ltd., www.sagepub.in).

In the latter publication, the authors also defined the essence of ‘satyagraha’ as ‘protest without rancour’ and this is seen as ‘holding the key to his entire campaign’ of non-violent resistance. From these perspectives, the teaching, ‘hatred begets hatred’ acquires more salience and meaning.

Accordingly, the voice of reason and love needs to come centre stage and take charge of current international political discourse. The UN and allied organizations which advocate conflict resolution by peaceful means need to get together and ensure that their voices are clearly heard and understood. The global South could help in this process by seeing to the vibrant rejuvenation of organizations such as the Non-aligned Movement.

An immediate task for the peace-oriented and well meaning is to make the above projects happen fast. In the process they should underscore afresh the profound importance of the teachings of Mahatma Gandhi, who is acclaimed the world over as a uniting and healing political personality and prophet of peace.

If the Mahatma is universally acclaimed, the reason is plain to see. Put simply, he spoke to the hearts and minds of people everywhere, regardless of man-made barriers. The language of peace and brotherhood, that is, is understood by everyone. The world needs more prophets of peace and reconciliation of the likes of the Mahatma to drown out the voices of discord and war-mongering and ensure that the language of humanity prevails.

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Exciting scene awaits them …

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The Future Model Hunt extravaganza, organised by Rukmal Senanayake, and advocacy trainer Tharaka Gurukanda, held in late January 2026, has brought into the limelight four outstanding contestants who will participate, at the international level, this year – Sandeepa Sewmini, Demitha Jayawardhana, Diwyanjana Senevirathna, and Nimesha Premachandra.

Nimesha took the honours as Mrs. Tourism Sri Lanka 2026 and was featured in The Island of 05th March,

Sandeepa Sewmini was crowned Miss Supranational 2026 and will represent Sri Lanka at the big event to be held in Poland later in the year.

A Business Management and Human Resources student, she will be competing under the guidance of Rukmal Senanayake from the Model With Ruki – Model Academy & Agency.

The Mister Supranational Sri Lanka crown went to Demitha Jayawardhana, a 20-year-old professional model and motocross rider.

Apart from modelling he is engaged in his family business.

Demitha Jayawardhana: Mister Supranational Sri Lanka 2026

Demitha is also a badminton player with a strong passion for sports, fitness and personal growth.

In fact, he is recognised for his strength, discipline, and passion for fitness.

A past student of Wycherley International School and St Peter’s College, Colombo, Demitha is currently in his second year of Economics Management at the Royal Institute of Colombo.

He will represent Sri Lanka at the 10th edition of the Mister Supranational pageant, in Poland, in August, 2026.

Mister and Miss Supranational are annual international beauty pageants, held in Poland, and are designed to discover new talent for the modelling and television industries and produce instant celebrities.

The competition focuses on elegance, intelligence, and social advocacy, with contestants, representing their countries.

The newly appointed Miss Teen International Sri Lanka 2026 is Diwyanjana Senevirathna.

She was crowned at the Future Model Hunt and will represent Sri Lanka at the Miss Teen International 2026 pageant in India.

Diwyanjana is noted for her grace and dedication to representing the country at this prestigious event that aims to celebrate talent, intelligence, charm, and individuality, and provide a platform for young girls to showcase their skills.

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