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Electing a President: Dazzling Convention in Chicago. No Drama yet in Sri Lanka

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by Rajan Philips

“Marrying spectacle with seriousness” is the essence of the American genius. Both were in full display at the Democratic Party Convention in Chicago last week. For four days, the Democrats gathered at the United Centre (home to Chicago Bulls where Michael Jordan once dribbled and dazzled with the basketball) in a carnival atmosphere mixing serious politics with artsy entertainment, culminating on Thursday with Kamala Harris accepting the Party’s nomination as its presidential candidate and delivering the biggest speech so far of her suddenly soaring political life. The speech on Thursday was fittingly soaring, well scripted, and was delivered with aplomb, authority and eloquence.

On Wednesday, Kamala Harris’s Vice Presidential pick and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz made his acceptance speech and delighted the crowd. Although Mr. Walz has been a highly successful state governor, he is not cut from the elite cloth of American politics. From small town origins, he had been a high school teacher and football coach with stints in China, and served in the Army National Guard, before retiring and entering politics. Humorous and jovial, with folksy wit like former President Truman, Mr. Walz has proven himself to be a fitting partner to Kamala Harris with her own signature laugh. They have brought laughter into American politics against an opponent who neither smiles nor laughs.

Six months ago, the Democrats were fearing the worst – that the 2024 Convention could turn out to be a disaster like the 1968 one, also in Chicago, when anti-Vietnam protesters rocked the Convention and the City. The Party was bitterly divided and its eventual nominee, then Vice President Hubert Humphrey, went on to be defeated by Richard Nixon. A 27 year young Bernie Sanders was a protest leader on the street in 1968. Now 83 and Senator, Sanders was fully inside the tent this week as he had been since 2016.

Sanders is the progressive flag bearer in American politics and was given a prime time speaking slot along with the Party grandees – the Bidens, the Clintons, the Obamas, and its younger upstarts including the grandsons of John Kennedy and Jimmy Carter. Unlike the Republicans where future potentials have been crowded out by Trump and his godling worshippers, the Democrats boasted an impressive array of young political stars with potential for a higher calling in the future.

Presidential Line

One of them is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), the 35 year young Congresswoman from New York and the youthful face of progressive politics. AOC was given speaking time on Monday, immediately before Hillary Clinton, signifying the Party’s long generational span and its vulnerability to ideological shears and stresses throughout its length. As omens go, giving a speech at the convention has been a recent pathway to candidacy and even victory at a future presidential election.

Bill Clinton was the chosen speaker at the 1988 convention and went on to be elected president in 1992; Barak Obama made his splash in 2004 and was president in 2008; Kamala Harris had her opening in 2012 and now has her chance to be president in 2024. Time will tell if AOC would join the select line and she has time on her side in a country that for all its warts is also the world’s biggest fountain of opportunities.

The theme of this years convention was freedom and its message unity, both a foil and a response to Trump. Trump has become the glue that holds the multihued Democrats united with a single minded purpose: defeat Trump. They survived the deep divisions and protests over the crisis in Gaza and put on a united show because nothing else would be a greater suffering to them than a second Trump presidency.

A ceasefire announcement at the Convention would have the been the ideal swan song for President Joe Biden, but that was not to be. Both Israel and Hamas stuck to their guns refusing to cross the ‘bridging proposal’ that the US had come up with to break the current deadlock. A direct call on Wednesday between Biden and Netanyahu was not enough to nudge the latter to the final step. Significantly, Vice President Harris joined the call showing her involvement in official business while campaigning for her election as president in November.

A Close Election

Looking presidential while campaigning for the future has enhanced her mojo as a candidate. Even as it has driven Trumps nuts. From the time Donald Trump started his presidential campaign in 2015 preparing the primaries and presidential election in 2016, Trump’s method of choice has been to insult and injure his opponents through name calling and slandering. He called Hillary Clinton “crooked Hillary,” and it stuck among Trump supporters and voters even though there was no substance to it. Strangely, or not, Trump has not been able to come up with anything stickable against Kamala Harris.

For one, Ms. Harris has no baggage like Clinton; more importantly, people have got tired of Trump’s name calling and invective. Equally, the Democrats are turning the tables on Trump and returning the favour by mocking everything about him. Speakers at the convention took turns mocking Trump, his lies, his inconsistencies and his plain narcissism. Unlike in 2016, Trump is now very much a known quantity with an indefensible record, and a majority of Americans do not want another four years of or with Trump. In her convention speech, Kamala Harris asserted that as a public prosecutor and political leader she has had only one client: The People. She contrasted her with Trump, who has had only one client all his life: Himself.

Regardless, the November election will be a close race, and because of the Electoral College system and the party affiliations of the States the election will be decided by the results in the seven swing states by margins that could as low as a few thousand votes. Three of them, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are in the rustbelt, the old industrial areas in the Midwest with disaffected white working class communities; and four of them, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada are in the southern sunbelt where increasing numbers of African and Latino Americans are changing electoral dynamic of what have been traditionally rural white American majority states.

Voter mobilization and turnout will decide the results in these states and ultimately the winner in the November election. To mobilize their supporters and persuade the independent voters, the Democrats are asserting to be free from government’s control over women’s rights and gender rights, on the one hand, and asking for government intervention, on the other, to help the middle classes and the marginalized to have adequate housing, secure jobs and affordable prices for essential goods and services. They are openly and joyfully contrasting the reality of American diversity and immigrant attraction with the racial bigotry of Donald Trump and the Republican Party that he has hijacked. It is a cultural campaign for America’s “better angels” to triumph over its ugly demons.

A Different Election

The presidential election in Sri Lanka is a different animal but no less critical for the country’s immediate and long term future. The Americans have been curating the presidential system for over two centuries. Sri Lankans have significant doubts about it even after living with it for over four decades. At least two candidates, Sajith Premadasa, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, are on record that if elected they will proceed to have the elected executive presidential system abolished. But they cannot do it by executive order, and will require an act of parliament and a constitutional amendment.

There has been no indication by any candidate except AKD who promised instant dissolution of what they will do with the current parliament, or for how long they will keep it. Rather how soon they will dissolve it. No candidate has issued a manifesto yet. And there is no 100-day programme like what was presented in advance of the January 2015 presidential election, when Maithripala Sirisena was the common candidate for all three of the main candidates in the current election. They were on the same team then and are offering contrasting perspectives now.

Speaking after nominations, Sajith Premadasa waxed eloquent and promised “to create an era of the common masses.” Whatever that might mean except for pluralizing the old SWRD cliché of the era of the common man. And the terminology is more condescending than reformative in the 21st century. Anura Kumara Dissanayake opined that only the NPP is capable of bringing about the change while claiming that “the people are badly in need of a change.” That has been his theme for over two years and the day of reckoning is finally near for the change maker. Ranil Wickremesinghe may have wanted to keep it simple and called “for a fresh mandate to create a bright future for the nation.” That is quite a long shot given his declared delivery date is not until 2048.

The voters do not seem to be overwhelmingly persuaded by anyone of them. The Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) has released the results of a survey called the “Confidence in Democratic Governance Index,” that asked respondents that who among the three presidential candidates is best suited to address their current needs. In addition to the three candidates, the survey also included the none of the above or “No One” option. Not surprisingly, at the national level, nearly 30% (28.8%) of the respondents picked the No One option, followed by 24.3% for Ranil Wickremesinghe, 19.3% for Sajith Premadasa, and 15.5% for Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

The breakdowns along ethnic lines are instructive. Among the Sinhalese, the No One option ranks the highest with 33%, but individual candidates fare better among the Tamils, Muslims and the Malaiyaha Tamils. As well, Ranil Wickremesinghe (24.1%) and Anura Kumara Dissanayaka (18.4%) score better than Premadasa (15.8%) among the Sinhalese, while Mr. Premadasa tops the list among all three minority communities who also show little support for Mr. Dissanayake.

The above results are an interesting snapshot and nothing more, but they do say something about the uncertain state of mind among the voters, both nationally and ethnically. The candidates do not seem to be helping anyone with certainty on anything. Mr. Dissanayake seems to be the most confident among the three candidates, but there is no way of knowing how his confidence resonates with the public. Going by the CPA survey, he still has work to do among the minority communities.

Sajith Premadasa, although he has been striking alliances with other political parties (some of them multiple times), he does not seem to be able to hold his own house (SJB) in order. The very timing and the very public resignation of Parliamentarian Thalatha Athukorala is quite a blow to SP’s campaign, and it has been the only drama in a rather lacklustre election campaign so far.

Ranil Wickremesinghe continues to be inexplicable. Why would he let the government decide every MP to have additional guns which they can keep forever by renewing licenses? Is he selectively applying to Sri Lanka’s parliamentarians the Second Amendment from the US – the right to keep and bear Arms? And the Supreme Court is not letting the President easily off the hook with its new ruling on the Local Government elections. For someone who wants the people to vote for him on his economic record, Mr. Wickremesinghe keeps inviting new strictures over his hopelessly woeful political record. Stranger days are still ahead.



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Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber

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“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “

According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.

Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations

But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.

In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.

As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .

Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette

Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.

As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?

Challenges ahead

“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.

With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.

So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.

(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira ✍️

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale

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After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.

I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.

This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could  not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.

Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.

Caryl and Simon

The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.

But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.

Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.

Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.

Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.

Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.

When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.

Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references  – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.

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The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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