Business
Economic policy choices: From stabilisation to growth
Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2023
Sri Lanka has faced a turbulent economic journey in recent years, with 2022 witnessing an unprecedented crisis marked by a staggering 8.7% GDP contraction. The economy slowly but steadily pulled back from the abyss over the course of 2023. Notably, the Sri Lankan rupee has stabilised and even appreciated by 12%, inflation has dropped to 1.3%, import restrictions are being eased, and interest rates are on the decline.
These positive developments are a result of the implementation of economic stabilisation measures and groundwork for institutional and regulatory reforms to support future growth. These measures have critics concerned about the intense economic pain that falls on those least able to cope with the fallout. As a country that faces years of weak growth, the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka’s (IPS’) Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2023 report, explores the complex policy choices Sri Lanka faces as it navigates the path to economic recovery.
The Rocky Road to Recovery
In 2023, Sri Lanka’s economy is expected to contract further, though at a slower pace compared to the previous year. Differing medium term forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) point to the complexities of accurately predicting the future of an economy that has suffered a sudden and sharp crisis. In 2023, the IMF predicts a contraction of -3%, while the CBSL holds a more optimistic view at -2%. Both anticipate a return to positive growth in 2024, but uncertainties linger due to social and political opposition to austerity policies, ongoing debt negotiations, and volatile global economic conditions driven by geopolitical tensions.
Following the severe 8.7% GDP contraction in 2022, Sri Lanka embarked on immediate and stringent measures to stabilise its economy. These measures included securing the 17th IMF bailout and implementing substantial increases in value-added taxes (VAT), personal income taxes, energy prices, and a freeze on public sector wages. With shortfalls in anticipated revenue collections, further fiscal tightening measures cannot be ruled out.
Addressing Socioeconomic Challenges
Faced with growth-inhibiting tough austerity measures, concerns persist regarding the potential exacerbation of inequality and poverty. Sri Lanka witnessed a doubling of national poverty rates to 25% and a tripling of urban poverty to 15% in 2022. Escalating inflation has eroded household savings and real wages, prompting many skilled professionals to seek opportunities abroad, potentially resulting in a brain drain and the loss of a generation of young workers.
Sri Lanka’s economic challenges are further compounded by disparities in the education and health sectors, which require substantial resources for meaningful reforms. The delicate task of balancing fiscal constraints with the need for improved social protection programmes looms large.
Paving the Way for
Sustainable Growth
To achieve sustainable economic growth, Sri Lanka must not only stabilise its economy but also address long-standing structural problems. The country’s overemphasis on infrastructure investment with borrowed funds needs to shift towards enhancing global competitiveness in exports. In a world marked by US-China tensions, forging partnerships and aligning industrial and trade policies is vital. Currently, Sri Lanka lags in global value chain (GVC) activity, posing a challenge to economic diversification.
Over-reliance on low-skilled, informal jobs, where more than half of the workforce is engaged in low-skilled jobs, hampers progress towards a competitive and productivity-driven economy. Comprehensive reforms in education, improved access to higher education, and bridging skills gaps in sectors like Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) are essential to create well-paying jobs and ensure long-term economic resilience. Additionally, addressing corruption, enhancing accountability, and improving public service delivery are vital for building public trust and support for reforms.
Building Consensus
for Transformation
As Sri Lanka grapples with its economic challenges, presidential elections loom on the horizon in 2024. Traditional politics may drive opposition to austerity and reforms in pursuit of votes. However, regardless of the election outcome, the country’s fragile economic situation will likely necessitate continued adherence to fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies outlined in the IMF programme. What remains uncertain is the fate of complementary reforms aimed at enhancing economic efficiency and productivity, which might be delayed or abandoned due to political compulsions.
The more contentious reforms may slow down or stall altogether between now and the 2024 elections, to be addressed afterward, depending on electoral outcomes. These possibilities introduce significant uncertainty at a time when economic confidence has already been severely undermined. The solution and best hopes are to build cross-party consensus on areas that do need fixing.
Conclusion
Sri Lanka’s journey from economic turmoil to stability is fraught with challenges, but it also offers opportunities for meaningful reform. While macro-stabilisation measures are laying the foundation, the path to recovery must prioritise quality GDP growth that creates high-quality jobs. Achieving this requires addressing structural issues, strengthening social safety nets, and fostering cross-party consensus. As Sri Lanka navigates its economic challenges, making the right policy choices, coupled with accountable institutions, will be key to transforming its setback into a sustainable success.
These and many other issues are discussed in the IPS’ annual flagship publication Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2023 under the theme ‘Economic Policy Choices: From Stabilisation to Growth’ which focuses on the policy choices and debates in key areas of reform for a country that is emerging from a deep crisis.
The IPS report will be released on Tuesday, 17th October 2020 and will be available for sale at IPS, No. 100/20, Independence Avenue, Colombo 07, and at leading bookshops island-wide.
Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2023 Economic Policy Choices: From Stabilisation to Growth
Business
Fuel market faces fresh pressure as Asian prices rise
By Ifham Nizam
Sri Lanka’s fuel market is coming under renewed pressure as the escalating West Asian conflict and disruption to key oil-shipping routes push up international crude and refined-fuel prices, with a top Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) official saying the Corporation is closely monitoring developments and the potential impact on domestic fuel costs.
A top CPC official said the sharp rise in international oil prices was being driven by the conflict and disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the region.
The official said Sri Lanka’s exposure to the international price shock would also depend on the timing of fuel purchases, as petroleum cargoes are ordered well before they arrive in the country and the final landed cost is determined when the cargo is delivered.
The CPC is also seeking to cushion consumers from the full impact of international price increases while maintaining uninterrupted supplies, the official said.
The latest developments come as Brent crude remains above USD 100 a barrel despite a recent retreat in prices following efforts by Saudi Arabia to maintain exports through alternative routes.
Brent crude futures fell to USD 104.74 a barrel yesterday, while West Texas Intermediate was trading at USD 101.60, according to Reuters. Saudi Arabia has been offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through Oman to offset disruptions caused by attacks on its East-West pipeline.
The immediate concern for Sri Lanka is the potential impact on the country’s petroleum import bill, foreign-exchange requirements and inflation.
Higher international crude and refined-product prices mean that more dollars are required to finance fuel imports, while higher domestic energy costs can feed into transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, fisheries and logistics.
The pressure is already being felt elsewhere in Asia.
Pakistan has raised petrol prices by Pakistani Rs. 4.42 a litre and high-speed diesel by Rs. 6.10, taking the prices to Rs. 380.24 and Rs. 409.42 respectively. The latest increase is reported to be the sixth consecutive fuel price increase in the country.
The Philippines has also raised fuel prices, with petrol increasing by 5.68 Philippine pesos a litre, diesel by 4.31 pesos and kerosene by 4.62 pesos for the latest pricing period.
The developments provide an indication of how quickly international energy-market disruptions can feed into domestic fuel markets across fuel-importing Asian economies.
For Sri Lanka, the issue is particularly significant because petroleum remains a major component of the country’s import bill. The CPC’s current prices stand at Rs. 399 a litre for 92-octane petrol and Rs. 382 for auto diesel, according to the Corporation’s latest published prices.
The government is meanwhile facing pressure to balance consumer protection with the financial sustainability of fuel suppliers.
The Energy Minister has said several options are being considered, including fuel subsidies, price limits for private distributors and adjustments to retail prices. Private operators have reported substantial losses on diesel under prevailing prices, while the CPC has said it is currently absorbing losses on diesel through earnings from other petroleum operations.
A prolonged international oil-price shock could therefore have consequences extending well beyond the pump.
Higher fuel costs would raise operating expenses for transport-dependent businesses and could increase the cost of moving goods throughout the economy. For manufacturers and exporters, higher energy and logistics costs could also affect margins and competitiveness.
At the macroeconomic level, a sustained increase in petroleum prices could increase Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange requirements and place additional pressure on the trade balance and inflation.
The international oil market, however, remains highly fluid. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to redirect crude exports through Oman have eased some immediate supply concerns, while expectations that its damaged East-West pipeline could return to operation within days have also helped push crude prices lower.
But shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted and the wider conflict continues to pose risks to crude and refined-product supplies.
For Sri Lanka, the coming weeks will therefore be closely watched by fuel suppliers, importers and businesses as the country assesses whether the current international price shock proves temporary or develops into a more prolonged increase in the cost of energy.
Business
NSB felicitates the performance and commitment of Grade 5 students
The student, who obtained the highest marks in the Sinhala medium, at the Grade 5 Scholarship Examination – 2026, was felicitated by the National Savings Bank (NSB), recently, at the NSB Head Office, under the Hapan Pranama Scholarship Program -2026, organized by the Bank.
The Chairman of the Bank, Dr. Harsha Cabral PC, the Actg. General Manager/CEO, Rohana Bandara Weerakoon and the Corporate Management were present at the occasion.
Danoj Theekshana Weerasekara, a student of Ahatuwewa Model Primary School in Kurunegala District, has won the first place in Sinhala Medium at Grade 5 Scholarship Examination this year, with 193 marks. His remarkable achievement reflects not only his personal talents, but also the commitment of his family members, guidance of his teachers and support of the entire school community, who came together to make his triumph a reality.
The National Savings Bank, while complimenting his achievement, wishes him good luck, strength and courage for his future academic endeavors.
Being always committed towards realizing the educational goals of the children of the country, NSB organizes a seminar series, well in advance of the Examination, every year, to support them in preparation for the exam. The Bank has been able to hold more than 100 seminars islandwide this year as well.
Through these seminars, it is expected to provide the students with knowledge, guidance and mental strength, required to be successful at the Examination and the Bank has joined hands with them at an important juncture of their lives, assuring support and strength to face the exam with confidence. (NSB)
Business
CSE receives ‘Great Place to Work’ for five consecutive years
The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has received the ‘Great Place to Work’ Certification’ for the 5th consecutive year in a row. Since 2022 the bourse has been continually awarded the certification in recognition of its commitment to providing a welcome, inclusive and safe environment.
“At CSE, our people remain our greatest strength.” remarked Rajeeva Bandaranaike, CEO of the CSE “Receiving the Great Place to Work Certification for the fifth consecutive year is a meaningful recognition of our commitment to creating a workplace culture founded on trust, respect, and collaboration. It is an achievement shared by every member of the CSE team and reflects the passion, commitment, and teamwork that continue to drive our success.”
The certification was awarded by Great Place to Work®, a global organization that grants this recognition across more than 180 countries and regions and represents over 20 million employees and 22,000 companies worldwide. The certification was based on the results of an anonymous, company-wide survey that evaluated workplace culture across five key dimensions: credibility, respect, fairness, pride, and camaraderie.
The certification reaffirms CSE’s commitment to its foundational values of Professionalism, Integrity, Care, Teamwork, Passion and Agility. By championing equity and inclusion, the CSE has built a welcoming, discrimination-free culture where every individual can thrive. A cornerstone of this success is CSE’s leadership in workplace diversity as an equal opportunity employer and signatory to the UN Women’s Empowerment Principles, alongside its close collaboration with the UN Global Compact and Respectful Workplaces initiatives. Additionally, the exchange fosters dynamic young talent, with early-career professionals accounting for 57% of its workforce.
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