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Deep State – Sow a Wind and Reap a Whirlwind

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Col. (Retired) Parakrama Dissanayake
Former commanding Officer,
Military Intelligence

“If they did prosper and increase in riches, yet they should not long enjoy them themselves, but be pillaged and spoiled of them” Hosea 8:7

The above is quoted from the Bible and is self-explanatory. Since, the concept of Deep State in Sri Lanka is closely connected, to the Easter Bombing, the Bible verse has been referred to due to its significance.

For the first time in Sri Lanka, Deep State has been discussed publicly, by Sunanda Deshapriya, writing about it in his recent book about the Easter Attack. His book is about the fourth publication on the Easter Sunday attack. I have always had great respect for Sunanda as I had been reading his articles from the nineties.

Although I still have not read this book, skimming through it I think it is well researched. He refers to Deep State as ‘Paaraa Rajya’ in Sinhala. Attorney Kishali Pinto Jayawardena too has written about the danger of Deep State in her articles.

I wrote an article about Deep State immediately after Azad Moulana made a revelation on Channel 4. However I was advised not to, by my friends. I was also aware that a prominent journalist had to leave the country after it was alleged that he helped the Channel 4 research.

Definition and Extent of Deep State

There are many definitions to Deep State, its nature and activity, over a period of time. With research and activity, the term has evolved in many ways and descriptions. However, the concept originated from the Turkish word derin devlet. It was presumed, a secret network of military officers and civilians tried to preserve the secular order based on the ideas of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Some consider it as a part of the Gladio Organisation to influence Turkey to be part of NATO, during the Cold War.

A more formal definition would be, “an alleged secret network of especially non-elected government officials and sometimes private entities, as in the financial services and defence industries, operating extra legally to influence and enact government policy. The power of Deep State comes from experience, knowledge, relationships, insight, craft, special skills, traditions, and shared values”.

In very simple terms, it is ‘a State within a State’. Or ‘criminal’ or ‘rogue’ elements that have somehow muscled their way into power. Many countries have experienced Deep State in many forms mostly associated with the military, intelligence, influential business community or cartels or influential lobbyists.

In Deep State, the most common shared value being Patriotism or Nationalism, fits the profile of any military intelligence organisation including Sri Lanka. They go to the extent of changing public opinion through paid journalists, and media outlets, influential politicians and others. In today’s context, the Fifth Estate which is also very powerful, in changing public opinion. These Deep State elements, try to be away from public scrutiny through the cover of ‘Betrayal’.

Thus they become unaccountable and opaque. When in operation, the spectre of Deep State threatens to thwart the will of the people and undercut constitutional authority. Any government which promotes Deep State, for short term gain in politics, is either unaware of the concept and its implications or its criminal nature. Any whistle blower is silenced, using enormous resources and tools available to the Deep State element.

In USA. those who were involved in the January 6, 2021 attack on Capitol Hill, believed there was a Deep State conspiracy to prevent Joe Biden from becoming the rightful President of USA. There was rioting, vandalism. looting, assault, shooting, arson and attempted bombings during the attack.

Deep State, through all the world experience clearly indicates a threat to the state, democracy and the people, creates mistrust, suspicion and fear amongst the population and finally could result in the breakup of the state. It always has negative connotations. Deep State controls many countries. Closer home, Pakistan is a clear example of Deep State, associated with ‘Religion and Army’.

The long term, end result of Deep State is the fall of the Constitution and rise of a shadow government. This threatens the very fabric of society more than any act of terrorism. The enemy is always within and cannot be controlled due to many obligations the government has towards this rogue element. It begins with overseas postings and courses to selected individuals and ends up with super luxury life, influence and perks to those who form the elite and most trusted group of the government. This clearly was evident since the previous presidential elections in 2019 and from 2010.

Deep State in Sri Lanka

Deep State is hardly known, discussed or observed in any circle or community in Sri Lanka, including the military. Certainly, not in the public domain. Reasons being public backlash, threat to life and ignorance of the concept.

Deep State activity, in recent years, was first evidenced during 88-89 insurrection. Elements from the military and other law enforcement agencies were tasked with or by themselves decided, to carry out extrajudicial activity. Batalanda and Suriyakanda stand out and were the most infamous. This also happened in many other areas of the south.

During my tenure of service, as the senior intelligence officer, in the North and East, so many desperate mothers, sisters and wives were assisted in some form, to find or trace those missing. Unfortunately not much was possible. There were lists given by ruling party politicians just to ‘Eliminate’ youth whom they considered anti-social elements or subversives. Many youth were eliminated without any trial or judicial proceedings and that’s no secret at all. In some local areas the government was actually the military or the security forces. It was a government within a government, in most local areas.

Sunanda Deshapriya

Going beyond, the next stage was when the when Eelam War 2 broke out in June 1990. That’s actually the time when the White Van culture came about. Intelligence officers along with militants other than the LTTE, from various groups supported the security forces to identify terrorists. Abductions were taking place in the Jaffna peninsula, in white vans. It was, I think, the Uthayan and Eelamurasu newspapers that exposed the existence of white vans. The Uthayan newspaper office was hit by an air raid subsequently in 1990, and it was attacked about six times with the last time being in 2013. Eelamurasu was taken over by the militants.

In 1994, during the local government elections in the East, in March, the intelligence played a major role in help fielding candidates. In fact, a ruling party politician was involved in handing over money to those who stood for elections. Many of those elected were subsequently killed by the LTTE. Ever since, Deep State activity was carried out mostly by elements of intelligence units.

Even Heads of State believed in whatever the Intelligence reported. No questions were asked. That was quite natural, as they had implicit faith and trust in those agencies. Many have been the occasions when the Head of State and the country at large had been deceived by these agencies. The most horrible result of all this was the Easter Bombing in 2019.

The infamous Millenium City episode in 2001 was a text book example of how Deep State activity operated and executed, unprofessional but successful. The military intelligence was able to cover up their misdoings and unprofessional conduct big time. This was revealed even recently, by FM Sarath Foneka on July 21, 2024 during a news interview. The President, the Defence apparatus, the public and the country at large, were led down the garden path, deceived and public opinion manipulated in favour of the wrong doers.

Large amounts of public resources including media was extensively used to cover up an illegal operation. I was one who, suffered most, although I had absolutely no part to play in the drama. It was a turning point in Deep State activity in Sri Lanka. In actual fact, it was from that time onwards, that Deep State started to be treated as a defining tool in the Defence apparatus.

With this, the military intelligence became a game changer in military-political activity at National level. Its rise was phenomenal and unchallenged. Those involved in the manipulation, was smart enough to contribute to the fall of the government. Incidentally, the very same persons who manipulated the government then, brought about its fall 20 years ago.

They were able to comfortably work with the same person whom they ousted as Prime Minister then, later to become the previous President. A monster was created and nurtured for political gain as never before. The same could happen now too. And it’s not going to be a surprise to me at least. Covert attempts will be made use of to drum up the ‘Patriotic’ cause.

How deep is Deep

The affect and impact of Deep State in the Easter Bombing is now clearly evident. How deep is Deep State, is a matter of extreme interest. From what has transpired so far, from all investigations and commission reports, it is evident that there was a clear attempt by the military intelligence and other connected agencies to cover up Zahran and his group activity. There is no doubt about that. The only doubt is, whether they were in fact involved in the planning and execution of the attack.

The cover up activity is so strong that, even the Commander of the Army, a very noteworthy and highly respected professional was deceived by reports on the Vavunativu Killing on November 28, 2018 and the recovery of the arms cache at Lacto Estate, Vanthavillu, on January 27, 2019. Rogue elements have been in the pay roll of military intelligence and the tax payer of the country has paid to maintain a set of murderers.

Although, the Government in office was that of President Sirisena, the military intelligence loyalty has been to the one out of office. So, in other words, the latter was working and being directed by an element which had no responsibility on governance. Among the questions that needs answers are:

  •  Whom was the military intelligence working for, with the Zaharan group?
  •  Was it the Commander of the Army, a foreign element or a local element?
  •  Who authorised the activity with the operations and projects in general and activities of the Zaharan group in particular?
  •  Was the military intelligence loyal to the State and the Constitution?
  •  Who authorised payment for the Zaharan is group and what threat were they assigned to counter?

Strategically, tactically and operationally, the Directorate of Military Intelligence and all military intelligence personnel work on the directives of the President/Defence Minister who defines who, which, what, how, where and how much the threat is, to the State. The latter, in turn, issues directives on the advise of various defence specialists. It seems most of those protocols have been breached when dealing with the Zaharan group.

There could have been other such instances too. Even the President incumbent at that time seems to have been reluctant to divulge information about what knowledge he had. Instead, it appeared, he was more comfortable to pay rupees one hundred million to the victims. Thus the Easter Bombing was deeper than Deep State and may need a new definition.

On the Easter Bombing

Till the recent announcement of Presidential Elections it seemed much water had flowed under the bridge, following the Bombing. Commission Reports, Select Committee Reports, Investigations and four books written so far and nothing much happened or deliberately put on the back-burner. There is renewed hope for the victims and justice for the country now.

Some areas for consideration amidst the possibility of evidence being tampered and suppressed over a period of five years are:

= Auditing the Secret Service Fund (SS Fund). A large sum of money allocated to the State Intelligence Service and the Military Intelligence for purposes of intelligence. The only person who can audit this fund is the President. The military intelligence SS fund may never have been audited since its origin in 1990. An in depth study of how the fund was utilised over a period of about 10 years and for what purpose, will indicate the true nature of its use or misuse. However, traces of its use could be already tampered with.

= Assessment of Special Equipment inventory. Over a period of time, a large arsenal of special equipment has been purchased for intelligence purposes. Its true nature and use is privy only to a few individuals. A study needs to be done on its legal use and capabilities.

= Scrutiny of Human Resource Index Register. A variety of human sources are utilised as intelligence sources. It is mandatory that a source index is maintained for accountability. It has to be assessed whether it has been maintained along with true and accurate details of human resources including pseudonyms, along with reports submitted, payments made and results obtained. Pseudonyms are conveniently misused as a cover for illegal activity. This register can be cross checked with the SS Fund payment details and as a supporting document. This could be a major source for accountability and transparency to uncover suppressed evidence.

= Conducting of Joint investigations. A police or CID Investigation per se may not suffice. Handpicked personnel from the military too should be included. It is these personnel who will know or assist on the internal workings of the army, like, procedures regarding communications, transport, weapons, rations pay and others. Without this expertise, much can be suppressed or hidden as is normally the case.

= Appointing Special Commissions. It is known that these commissions are only fact finding and sometimes inconclusive with no powers of punishment. The public should be invited to give evidence. The journalists and others who had researched on the incident, may have brought out more findings through their research, than in any formal investigations as their informal source base is much stronger than a formal one. .

Knowledge and acknowledgment of Deep State will be more beneficial to the country rather than being ignorant of it. Other Deep State activity regarding attacks on journalists and killings too could be laid bare through this exposure. It will benefit the future good of the Country and be a genuine eye opener to the Defence establishment. Renewed attempts, as always, to shoot the messenger cannot ruled out though.

“Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel” Samuel Johnson 1709 – 1784

para.stormsat@gmail.com



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Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers

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For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.

One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.

Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.

“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”

Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.

Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.

From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.

His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.

This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.

“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”

The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.

Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.

It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.

“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”

That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.

The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”

The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.

Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.

“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”

That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.

In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”

His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.

This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.

“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.

Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.

“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”

In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.

By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.

By Ifham Nizam ✍️

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AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap

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This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.

There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.

The Need for Immediate Action

AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.

“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”

Training Teachers and Students

Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.

Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.

Benefits of AI in Education

AI in schools offers numerous advantages:

· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills

· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness

· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy

· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics

· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences

· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition

AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.

Risks and Challenges

Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:

· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information

· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions

· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes

· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation

Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.

Global and Local Perspectives

In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.

The Way Forward

Experts urge swift action:

· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.

· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.

· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.

“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”

As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.

BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com

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The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad

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Protests and a vigil have been held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where the shooting of Renee Nicole Good occurred on Wednesday (photo courtesy BBC)

The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.

Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.

Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.

Restive America

Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.

But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.

Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.

After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.

The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.

In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.

It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.

Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.

But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.

An Obliging World

To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.

Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.

After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.

The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.

But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.

More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.

Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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