Business
Decline in labour force in 2020 first half- Part II
Extracts from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka report, ‘Recent Economic Developments: Highlights of 2020 and Prospects for 2021’
Continued from yesterday
* With a notable increase at the beginning of the year, prices of items in the Non-food category remained mostly unchanged during the period from April to June 2020, mainly due to the lower demand for non-essential goods and services and non-adjustment of administered prices such as transport fare, communication charges, electricity and water charges with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. Similar to 2019, an increase in house. Rentals in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels sub-category, which occupies the largest share in the Non-food category in both CPI baskets, took place in January 2020, yet at a comparatively lower magnitude. This increase at the beginning of the year was coupled with an increase in tuition fees for secondary education in the Education sub-category, and resulted in the highest increase observed in the Non-food category since January 2019. Moreover, an increase in payments to medical laboratories in the Health sub-category occurred in March 2020.
However, a decline in the same was recorded in August 2020, contributed to by the downward price revision of the Full Blood Count (FBC) laboratory test. Meanwhile, Lanka IOC (LIOC) revised petrol (92 octane) price downward from
Rs. 142 to Rs. 137 per litre from 06 April 2020, but increased back to the original price on 17 May 2020. However, LIOC reduced the price of petrol (92 octane) back to Rs. 137 with effect from 20 May 2020, tallying the price maintained by the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC). Prices of arrack, beer and cigarettes have remained unchanged thus far during the year, while prices of arecanuts and betel leaves increased significantly August 2020 onwards. Meanwhile, prices of items in the Non-food category followed an increasing trend from July 2020 onwards.
Consumer Price Indices
National Consumer Price Index
* The NCPI, which recorded 137.0 index points in January 2020, declined to 134.8 index points in April, before reaching 138.9 index points in September 2020. The increase observed in the NCPI in January 2020 was driven by the increases observed in prices of items in both Food and Non-food categories. Afterwards, the NCPI declined for two consecutive months in
March and April 2020 driven by the decrease in prices of items in the Food category. The NCPI demonstrated a reversal of its previous downward trend and increased thereafter till June 2020, while the prices of items in the Food category remained as the sole contributor towards this increasing momentum. However, the NCPI remained unchanged in both February and July 2020 since the decline of the prices of items in the Food category was nullified by the increase observed in the prices of items in the Non-food category. Further, the increase observed in the NCPI in both August and September 2020 was contributed by the increases of prices of items in the Food and Non-food categories.
Colombo Consumer Price Index
* The CCPI, which recorded 134.6 index points in January, reached 133.4 index points in March 2020 and increased to 136.3 index points in September 2020. The increase in January 2020 was supported by the movement of the prices of the items in both the Food and Non-food categories. Meanwhile, the movement of prices of items in the Food category contributedtowards the decline and the increase observed thereafter in March and April 2020, respectively.
Month-on-month increases demonstrated by the CCPI in the next three consecutive months until July 2020 and September 2020 were mainly due to the price increases of the items in both Food and Non-food categories.
Headline Inflation
* NCPI based year-on-year headline inflation remained above mid-single digit level during the period from January to September 2020.
The year-on-year headline inflation, which recorded 7.6 per cent in January, peaked at 8.1 per cent in February 2020, the highest since November 2017 and reached 6.4 per cent in September 2020. Meanwhile, NCPI based annual average inflation increased continuously from 4.1 per cent in January to 6.2 per cent in September 2020.
* CCPI based headline inflation remained mostly within the targeted range of 4-6 per cent during the period from January to September 2020. Accordingly, the year-on-year CCPI inflation increased from 5.7 per cent in January to 6.2 per cent in February 2020, moved on a declining trend afterwards until reaching 3.9 per cent in June and increased thereafter to 4.0 per cent in September 2020. Meanwhile, the annual average CCPI based inflation remained stable during the period from January to September 2020, in which it recorded 4.5 per cent in January and reached 4.7 per cent in September 2020.
Core Inflation
* Core inflation remained at stable levels yet notably lower than that of the previous year, driven by the statistical effect of the high base which prevailed throughout the previous year owing to the significant hike in house rentals observed at the beginning of 2019. Even though an upward revision in house rental occurred in January 2020, the effect was comparatively minimal. Accordingly, amidst monthly increases, the year-on-year NCPI based core inflation moved on a decreasing trend from 3.9 per cent in January to 3.2 per cent in March and remained unchanged in April before continuously increasing to reach 4.8 per cent in September 2020. Meanwhile, CCPI based year-on-year core inflation was at 3.0 per cent in January and recorded 2.9 per cent in September 2020.
Producer Price Inflation
* The producer price inflation measured by the year-on-year change in the Producer’s Price Index (PPI, 2013 Q4*100) increased initially to 5.6 per cent in January, peaked at 7.8 per cent in July and declined to 7.7 per cent in August 2020. The year-on-year producer price inflation of all three sub-sectors, namely, agriculture, manufacturing and electricity and water supply demonstrated overall increases during the first eight months of the year, yet recording notable fluctuations in between.
PRICES, WAGES, EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY
Inflation Expectations
* Inflation expectations of the corporate sector moved mostly within 4-6 per cent, however demonstrating mixed movements, during the period from January to September 2020, while inflation expectations of the household sector remained above the inflation expectations of the corporate sector. Short term inflation expectations of both the corporate sector and household sector remained above their longer term inflation expectations. Accordingly, disruptions to domestic production and supply chains along with containment measures taken to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, import restrictions imposed by the government, depreciation of the local currency, relaxed monetary policy stance and expected recovery in demand and economic activities with the ease of restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic emerged as main reasons for their high inflation expectations. Meanwhile, subdued demand and economic activities, and fall in international oil prices amidst the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, upswing in home gardening, expected improvements in domestic production, expected relaxation of import restrictions and recovery of supply chains with the ease of the COVID-19 pandemic were cited by respondents as reasons for their low inflation expectations in the longer term.
Wages
* Nominal wages of public sector employees, as measured by the public sector wage rate index (2016*100), increased significantly by 11.1 per cent during the period from January to August 2020 compared to the same period of 2019. This increase was due to the introduction of a new non-pensionable monthly interim allowance of Rs. 2,500 with effect from
01 July 2019 to all public sector employees and the addition of final tranche of the special allowance and interim allowance to the basic salary of public sector employees, with effect from 01 January 2020. Accordingly, real wages of the public sector employees also increased by 4.3 per cent during the period from January to August 2020 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
* Nominal wages of the employees in the formal private sector, as measured by the minimum wage rate index (1978 December*100) of employees, whose wages are governed by the Wages Boards Trades, increased marginally by 0.2 per cent during the period from January to August 2020 compared to the same period of 2019. However, real wages of employees in the formal private sector declined by 4.4 per cent during the period from January to August 2020 compared to the corresponding period.
Business
No shortcut to building Sri Lanka’s reserves: CBSL Governor
by Sanath Nanayakkare
“There is no shortcut to sustainable reserve accumulation,” Central Bank Governor Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe said yesterday, warning that rebuilding Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange buffers must be underpinned by sound economic fundamentals, policy credibility and institutional discipline rather than short-term fixes.
Addressing the inaugural Reserve Management Conference 2026 in Colombo, Dr.Weerasinghe said the task of building reserves had become increasingly difficult as geopolitical fragmentation, trade tensions, sanctions, volatile commodity prices, changing interest-rate cycles and rapidly shifting capital flows reshape the global financial environment.
For Sri Lanka, which experienced the consequences of depleted reserves during the 2022 economic crisis, the issue is particularly important.
“When reserves become critically low,” the Governor said, the consequences extend well beyond the Central Bank’s balance sheet. Imports become constrained, debt servicing becomes difficult, exchange-rate pressures intensify, inflationary pressures can increase and confidence deteriorates.
Most importantly, he said, the policy space available to respond to further shocks becomes severely constrained.
Foreign reserves should therefore be viewed not simply as financial assets but as a country’s “first line of defence” against external shocks, providing confidence, policy space and the ability to meet essential external obligations.
But Weerasinghe cautioned that reserve accumulation was not a linear process. A country could build reserves during favourable periods only to see them drawn down rapidly by an external shock.
The more important questions, therefore, were how resilient the reserves were, how accessible they were, how quickly they could be mobilised and whether they would be sufficient for the next shock.
Sri Lanka has made considerable progress since the crisis, with macroeconomic stabilisation and structural reforms strengthening the external sector compared with the difficult period of 2022–2023, he said.
However, sustainable reserve accumulation could not be separated from the broader macroeconomic policy framework.
Foreign exchange generated through exports, tourism, remittances, services and capital inflows ultimately provides the foundation for stronger reserves. When foreign-exchange inflows exceed outflows, reserves can rise, but maintaining that process while preserving exchange-rate flexibility, price stability, external debt-servicing capacity and market confidence remains a delicate policy challenge.
Dr.Weerasinghe warned against relying excessively on central-bank intervention, monetary expansion or external borrowing to rebuild buffers. Such measures could distort market signals, generate inflationary pressures or simply create future debt-service obligations.
“The most sustainable reserve accumulation strategy is therefore not simply to acquire reserves,” he said. “It is to build an economy that naturally generates and retains foreign exchange.”
The Governor said geopolitical risk had now become an integral part of reserve management. Strategic competition among major economies, sanctions and financial fragmentation were forcing reserve managers to reconsider the risks associated with particular currencies, jurisdictions and financial markets.
Although the US dollar continues to dominate international trade, finance and global reserves, diversification has a role to play. But diversification for its own sake could reduce liquidity and operational efficiency, he cautioned.
For official reserves, safety and liquidity must remain paramount, particularly because reserves may have to be deployed precisely when financial markets are under severe stress.
Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to energy and geopolitical shocks also makes the issue particularly acute. As an energy-importing country, a sharp rise in global oil prices can rapidly increase the import bill. At the same time, geopolitical tensions can weaken tourism and other sources of foreign exchange, producing the potentially damaging combination of rising outflows and declining inflows.
Climate-related disasters could create similar pressures by disrupting agriculture, infrastructure, tourism and imports.
Dr. Weerasinghe said reserve adequacy should therefore no longer be judged by a single number or conventional indicator such as import cover. Short-term external liabilities, debt-service requirements, capital-flow volatility, exchange-rate flexibility, contingent financing and the probability and magnitude of external shocks should also be considered.
He also highlighted the growing role of gold, technology and artificial intelligence in reserve management, while stressing that innovation should never compromise safety and liquidity.
Ultimately, the Governor said, reserves were not managed simply to earn a return but to protect economic stability and preserve confidence.
“Buffers must be built before they are needed,” he said, “because by the time an external crisis arrives, it may already be too late to begin building them”.
Business
Price of war keenly felt by investor community
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the surge in oil prices are continuing to negatively impacted investor sentiment, market analysts said yesterday.
The All Share Price Index went down by 93.55 points, while the S and P SL20 declined by 23.8 points.
Turnover stood at Rs 1.45 billion with five crossings. Those crossings were; Sampath Bank 3 million shares traded to the tune of Rs 428 million; its shares traded at Rs 142.50, Commercial Bank 256,000 shares crossed for Rs 49 million; its shares traded at Rs 204.50, Digital Mobility Solutions 190,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 30 million; its shares fetched Rs 158, Overseas Realty 493,000 shares crossed for Rs 26 million; its shares sold at Rs 53 and Royal Ceramics 469,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 23 million; its shares traded at Rs 48.50.
In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Commercial Credit and Finance Rs 38 million (376,000 shares traded), Renuka Agri Rs 33 million (2.8 million shares traded), Sierra Cables 32 million (925,000 shares traded), Singer SriLanka Rs 31 million (359,000 shares traded), Dialog Axiata Rs 31 million (637,000 shares traded) and Access Engineering Rs 30 million (383,000 shares traded). During the day 35 million share volumes changed hands in 13380 transactions.
It is said that banking sector counters, especially Commercial Bank, led the market,which contributed close to half of the total turnover. Apart from that other sectors, including manufacturing, telecom and construction counters performed well.
Meanwhile, Melstacorp (down 1.32 percent at Rs 187.00 ), Royal Ceramics Lanka (down 1.22 percent at Rs 48.50 ), Hemas Holdings (down 1.27 percent at Rs 31.20 ), and Dipped Products (down 1.50 percent at Rs 59.00) were top negative contributors.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 328.60/70 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 328.60/80 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.
Business
Softlogic Glomark’s “Better Life” campaign wins Gold at Dragons of Sri Lanka 2026
Softlogic GLOMARK, one of Sri Lanka’s leading supermarket chains, has been recognised at the Dragons of Sri Lanka Awards 2026, winning Gold and Black Dragon for Loyalty & Acquisition and Product Relaunch. The recognition reflects a deliberate strategic shift in how GLOMARK engages with the evolving needs of Sri Lankan consumers. Rather than competing primarily on convenience or price, GLOMARK built a purpose-led proposition around “A Better Life for Your Home,” repositioning the everyday grocery shop as an opportunity to make healthier, more considered choices for customers and their families.
Launched nationally as “Better Life,” the campaign brought this proposition to life through a vibrant commercial and memorable jingle, before extending the idea beyond advertising and into the shopping experience itself. Trained employees, curated product ranges and a re-aligned store environment were designed to make better choices more visible, accessible and easier to adopt.
The strategy translated into measurable business results. Active loyalty customers grew by 21%, footfall increased by 33%, while GLOMARK’s most frequent shoppers grew by 50%. The results demonstrate that building relevance and trust can create stronger customer relationships than competing solely on price or convenience.
Softlogic GLOMARK CEO Terry O’Connor said: “This award signals that our long-term strategy is working. We set out to build a brand customers choose because it genuinely improves their lives, not simply because it is convenient or cheap. Seeing that reflected in both industry recognition and real business growth confirms that we are on the right path and strengthens our confidence as we continue investing in GLOMARK’s future.”
Softlogic GLOMARK Head of Marketing Chamindri Pilimatalauwe said: “Our customers are increasingly making more deliberate, health-conscious, better choices, and this recognition confirms that our brand strategy is responding to that shift. We believe that when we curate every aisle and guide customer’ through it, we are also helping curate the lives of our customers. In that sense, we are more than a supermarket. We have the ability to influence how Sri Lanka lives, and we take that responsibility seriously. ගෙට Better Life’ was never intended to be a single campaign moment. It represents a fundamental repositioning of what GLOMARK stands for, designed to inspire and earn loyalty rather than simply drive footfall.”
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