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Covid-19: Potential risks of fast-tracking vaccine

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The clinical development and release of an effective vaccine against any disease is essentially mandated to go through several rigorously controlled testing processes. A vaccine candidate is first identified through pre-clinical evaluations that could involve high quality screening and selecting the proper biological antigen to invoke a defensive immune response. The pre-clinical stages are also necessary to determine approximate dose ranges and proper drug formulations such as oral tablets, drops, syrups or injections. This is also the stage in which the vaccine candidate would be first tested in laboratory animals or on human cells in the laboratory, prior to moving to the clinical stage of actual human trials.

The subsequent clinical stages of human trials are a three-phase process. Each phase tests larger and larger groups of humans. During Phase I, small groups of human subjects, perhaps 50 or so in each group, receive the trial vaccine. It primarily assesses the safety of the vaccine in healthy people. In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and vaccine is given to a larger group of people, maybe a few hundreds, who have the characteristics such as age and physical health, similar to those for whom the new vaccine is intended. In Phase III, the vaccine is given to thousands of people, with as broad a cross-section of people as possible, and tested for efficacy and safety. Many vaccines also undergo Phase IV formal, on-going studies after the vaccine is approved, licensed and administered to humans. All these processes are known to take years, sometimes as much as 10 years. It is a very meticulously formulated and long drawn out route to ensure the efficacy and safety of vaccines.

In the case of a COVID vaccine, we really do not have the luxury of spending years on this process. However, if one was to try and condense the timelines from years to months, it is quite obvious that it would necessarily have to entertain compromises. Currently there is a world-wide rush to find a safe and effective vaccine against Covid-19. Experts and companies claim one could be on the market in 12–18 months. The President of the United States of America wants one by the end of the year. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a significant number of candidate vaccines are in clinical trials, with a couple already in Phase III and several others likely to enter those final stages. The plethora of COVID-19 vaccines in development gives us many attempts at getting a potentially useful vaccine. But it has to be stated clearly and unequivocally that rushed development could mean missing information about long-term safety and the levels of protection. The accelerated speed of development of the COVID vaccines has public health experts gravely concerned that vaccines might be approved with incomplete data and analysis.

This apprehension intensifies because many of the vaccine platforms in development against Covid-19 are unproven new technologies. Byram Bridle, a viral immunologist at the University of Guelph in Canada, who has received Covid-focused funding to develop a new vaccine, has said “Developing a vaccine even in about a year is unprecedented. As a scientist with expertise in the field I am personally concerned that conducting science too fast could risk compromising the rigour needed to properly assess vaccines”.

Among the top fears is the potential that a fast-tracked vaccine will have unintended side-effects. No vaccine is 100% safe, but if a billion people are vaccinated, a one in 10,000 serious adverse event will affect 100,000 of those people. In May, it was revealed that four out of 45 people in Moderna’s Phase 1 COVID vaccine trial experienced ‘medically significant’ adverse events. The most important thing is to stringently ensure that fast tracking does not mean major compromisation on safety or efficacy. Rarer adverse events need even larger trials, and as explained by Gregory Poland, Director of vaccines research at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, USA, ‘We won’t know about rare events until after the vaccine is licensed”.

One potential adverse event is antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), a type of immune reaction where vaccination makes subsequent exposure to the virus more dangerous. This condition has been observed with some vaccines for the dengue virus, as well as in animal models for the original Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus. ADE occurs when the body, primed by a vaccine, generates antibodies that do not sufficiently neutralise the virus when later exposed to it and instead encourage the virus to get into cells and replicate, exacerbating the disease.

However, there is still a lot we do not know about coronaviruses, which is another concern with speedy vaccine development. For example, the question mark over immunity; are antibodies protective and how long does immunity last? Bridle says fast tracking vaccines risks compromising assessments of immunological memory. Arguably, a vaccine against Covid-19 should confer immunity for more than one year to reduce the risk of future recurrences. But how long would it take to determine if a vaccine can confer immunological memory for one year? Of course, it would take at least one year. So how does that fit into the goal of getting a vaccine into broad public use in under a year? Any vaccine is useless if it does not confer long-term immunological memory to respond when exposed to the virus.

Currently a somewhat controversial scenario has developed in the COVID vaccine development. In Phase III trials it is necessary to give the vaccine to a group of normal individuals the test vaccine and give another comparable group a placebo and all participants then have to go about their life as usual. They are all followed up for a prolonged period to see whether the vaccine protects against the disease. This will invariably take a long time. Until enough of the participants get the disease, there will not be sufficient data to draw worthwhile conclusions. To get over this requirement of prolonged observations, some people are now starting to advocate a more controversial model. Instead of waiting for any of the participants to contract the disease naturally, if at all, what if we give a set of willing volunteers in the vaccine group, the virus on purpose? These are called ‘Human Challenge Trials’. In some countries there are volunteers who have come forward to be willing to be exposed to the virus after vaccination with the trial vaccine. They have expressed various altruistic sentiments to speed up things so that the rest of humanity would benefit. Researchers had done such trials with a Typhoid Vaccine in the UK in 2016. The researchers in that trial felt that they saved three to four years of observations by that manoeuvre. In human challenge trials of a COVID vaccine, the entire process could be shortened to a matter of months.

 

However, and this is the real crux of the matter, in the human challenge trials which had been conducted for other diseases like typhoid, cholera, malaria etc, we do have effective treatments for those diseases. No one has actually died in those studies because if the vaccine was unsuccessful, they could be treated. That is where COVID-19 is in a special group. WE HAVE NO EFFECTIVE SPECIFIC TREATMENT FOR IT. If in a human challenge trial for COVID-19, the vaccine fails, there may be deaths of some of the volunteers. Such a trial in COVID-19 vaccine would be conducted in young healthy and much narrower group of people than in a conventional Phase III trial. It is to their eternal credit that these brave volunteers are prepared to take that small risk if their participation would help wider humanity. Yet for all that the risks are very real. In addition, if it works in that set of people, we will not be able to say for sure whether the vaccine will work as well in a wider cross-section of ordinary people and particularly in the elderly. Also, there are the potential prospects of some long-term effects of COVID-19, even in young people. Some authorities have labelled the human challenge trials as a ‘morally murky way’ of speeding up the COVID-19 vaccine process

Yet for all this, any risk of harm or death in a challenge study for COVID-19 would completely set it apart from all other challenge studies. Obviously, in the face of all this, many vaccine researchers would be reluctant to go into such trials for a COVID vaccine. However, the Oxford group that is doing Phase III trials on their vaccine are considering a challenge study by the end of the year. If the conventional Phase III trials that are currently being conducted find a useful vaccine, we may never have to do human challenge studies in COVID-19.

Ensuring a vaccine is safe and effective will be essential in keeping the public trust in vaccines. There is a risk that a fast-tracked vaccine could dent this and compromise vaccination programmes. Already in the US, around 30% of the public say they would reject a COVID vaccine, according to various surveys. Poland says policies have to be driven by science and effectively communicated to the public. But with economies flagging from the health crisis, will society accept more risk in a vaccine? That could be the case with Covid-19. Poland says the risk­–benefit ratio of all vaccines will be carefully reviewed by authorities but notes that risk boundaries are subjective.

To be quite fair, even a not so perfect vaccine, that could provide at least more than 50 per cent protection, could still slow the spread of the disease and save lives. But safety and efficacy concerns aside, there is more at stake here. Covid-19 will not be the only coronavirus pandemic in the future. The risk is if we do not build on the scientific gains once this pandemic recedes and if we fail to use the data and technology to be ready to develop a safe and effective vaccine for the next coronavirus or any other blight for that matter. It is obvious that the entire world would then be at grave risk in the future.



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Preserving Ruhuna’s legacy: Suriya Jayalath Perera’s vision for Sri Lanka’s wilderness

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Suriya with dignitaries at the book launch

By Ifham Nizam

Sri Lanka, a land teeming with biodiversity and historical significance, continues to captivate the global stage, thanks to individuals like Suriya Jayalath Perera. A celebrated wildlife photographer, researcher, and conservationist, Suriya’s work bridges the gap between Sri Lanka’s cultural history and its unparalleled natural beauty.

His book, Kingdom of Ruhuna, is a testament to his dedication. This masterpiece intricately documents the rich history of Ruhuna, one of Sri Lanka’s ancient kingdoms, while capturing its ecological splendour through vivid photography.

“The Kingdom of Ruhuna is more than just a historical region. It’s a living testament to how culture and nature coexist harmoniously. Through this book, I hope to inspire readers to cherish and protect this symbiosis,” Suriya remarked during an interview with The Island.

The book highlights the majestic landscapes of the Yala National Park, a key area of the Ruhuna Kingdom, showcasing iconic species such as leopards, elephants, and rare birds. Accompanying these visuals is a deep dive into the archaeological remnants of the kingdom, making Kingdom of Ruhuna a unique blend of natural and historical storytelling.

Global Recognition for Sri Lanka’s Wilderness

Suriya’s work has not only gained recognition locally but has also reached global audiences. His contributions to events such as In Focus USA, held at UCLA in 2024, emphasise the global importance of Sri Lanka’s wildlife. This exhibition featured Suriya’s photographs of Sri Lanka’s untamed wilderness, which stood out for their ability to bring the raw beauty of nature to life.

“Sri Lanka’s wilderness is a global treasure. Events like these help us connect with the world and highlight the urgent need for conservation,” Suriya noted.

A Family Legacy in Conservation

Behind Suriya’s success is a supportive family that shares his love for nature. “My family has always been my backbone, accompanying me on many journeys into the wild. Their encouragement motivates me to keep pushing boundaries,” he shared.

Suriya’s wife and children are frequently seen accompanying him during his explorations, learning about the intricacies of wildlife and the importance of preserving it for future generations. This close-knit family dynamic further adds to the personal charm of his professional journey.

A Call for Conservation

Pilgrims on a spiritual Pada Yatra

Despite the accolades and achievements, Suriya remains focused on his ultimate goal: conservation. His work goes beyond photography and books; he actively participates in initiatives aimed at educating local communities about the importance of preserving Sri Lanka’s natural heritage.

“The wilderness is not just for us—it belongs to the generations to come. If we don’t act now, we risk losing everything,” Suriya warned passionately.

Through his photographs, books, and global outreach, Suriya is creating a legacy that goes beyond aesthetics. His work serves as both a celebration of Sri Lanka’s biodiversity and a rallying cry for its preservation.

As readers turn the pages of Kingdom of Ruhuna, they are not just witnessing history and beauty—they are becoming part of a movement to protect one of the world’s most precious ecosystems.

Preserving Ruhuna’s Folklore: The timless echoes of Sri Lanka’s Past

Nestled in the heart of Sri Lanka’s southern plains, the Kingdom of Ruhuna is more than just a historical domain—it is a treasure trove of folklore. This ancient realm, steeped in myths and legends, serves as a window into the cultural and spiritual essence of the region. From the timeless tales of warrior kings to whispered stories of mystical beings, Ruhuna’s folklore is a vibrant tapestry that bridges the past and the present.

A Kingdom born of stories

Ancient statue at Minihagalkanda

Ruhuna’s history unfolds like an epic, its roots intertwined with the island’s Buddhist heritage and folklore. It is said that the legendary King Mahanaga, escaping palace intrigues in Anuradhapura, founded the Ruhunu Kingdom in Magama. Oral traditions passed through generations paint vivid pictures of his journey through jungles, rivers, and mountains, accompanied by tales of heroism and resilience.

The region’s lore extends further back, connecting with the mythological era of King Ravana, mentioned in the Ramayana. According to folklore, Ravana’s palaces once adorned the rugged hills of Ruhuna, their remnants lost to time and tide. Fishermen recount sightings of inscriptions on submerged rocks, visible during calm seas—a haunting reminder of this mythical past.

Suriya, reflected on the enduring significance of folklore. “Folklore is the soul of Ruhuna. It is how our ancestors preserved their wisdom, their fears, and their dreams. To lose these stories is to lose a part of who we are,” he explained.

His years of research brought him face-to-face with the oral traditions that animate Ruhuna’s cultural landscape. “Every rock, every tank, every temple tells a story. Even the Yala wilderness, with its leopards and elephants, is a living testament to the harmony our ancestors sought with nature,” he said.

One such story is that of the Nittaewo, a mysterious race believed to have inhabited Ruhuna’s forests. “The Nittaewo are more than just mythical creatures,” Suriya highlighted. “Their story reflects the deep connection our people had with the land, and the battles they fought to survive in a harsh but beautiful environment.”

Folklore as Cultural Currency

Folklore has long shaped Ruhuna’s socio-cultural identity, from its agricultural practices to its spiritual traditions. The region’s sacred sites, such as Kataragama, are steeped in stories that blend Buddhist, Hindu, and indigenous beliefs. “Kataragama isn’t just a temple—it’s a narrative crossroads where history and spirituality meet,” he noted.

However, the modern era poses challenges. “Urbanisation, globalisation, and even treasure hunters threaten the survival of these stories,” he warned. “Much of our folklore still exists only in oral form. If we don’t act now, we risk losing it forever.”

The Call to preserve

Suriya says the book is more than a historical account; it is a call for action. “I wrote Kingdom of Ruhuna to ensure that these stories are not buried in the sands of time,” he added. His work has inspired local efforts to document folklore through schools, community projects, and digital platforms.

For Suriya, preserving folklore is not merely an academic pursuit but a personal mission. “Every tale, whether of kings or villagers, holds a lesson for us today,” he said. “Folklore teaches us to respect our past and to live in harmony with the natural world.”

As Sri Lanka charts its future, Ruhuna’s folklore stands as a reminder of the island’s rich heritage. “Folklore is not just about the past,” he said adding “It’s a guide for the future, teaching us resilience, creativity, and the value of community.”

In conclusion, Suriya expressed his heartfelt gratitude to Prabath Sahabandu, the Editor of The Island newspaper , acknowledging him as the first to publish his research two decades ago.

President Emeritus of the International Institute of Space Law & Policy

The area surrounding the Ruhuna National Park is celebrated in Sinhalese history as a sacred place, steeped in meditation and spiritual significance, where Arahaths have sought refuge. As Nandasiri Jasentuliyana, President Emeritus of the International Institute of Space Law & Policy, observes, even today, the visitor cannot help but feel a sense of sanctity and tranquility in the region, as if stepping into a sacred land rich in history.

He highlights the legend of King Dutugemenu, who, in gratitude to God Skanda (Kataragama Deviyo) for helping him cross the Menik Ganga in his quest to defeat Elara, built a shrine to honour the deity. This shrine, which has remained a holy site for both Hindus and Buddhists, is one of many monuments that underscore the region’s spiritual importance. Tissamaharama and Kiri Wehera stupas are a further testament to the sacredness of the area, which is now home to a wealth of archaeological and religious relics.

Jasentuliyana also draws attention to the Mahavamsa, the ancient Buddhist text, whose final chapter dramatises these historical events, intertwining the sanctity of Ruhuna with the national consciousness of Sri Lanka. The Mahavamsa, written long after the events it narrates, captures the folklore that shapes the region’s history and geography, including that of the Ruhuna Kingdom and the surrounding area.

Despite these rich historical associations, the region is also renowned for its wildlife, particularly in Yala National Park, which boasts the world’s highest population density of leopards. The author, in his unique and insightful style, brings to life the serene beauty and historical richness of the Ruhuna Kingdom, offering readers a scholarly narration enriched by folklores, offering rare glimpses into archaeological sites often overlooked by even historians. As Jasentuliyana concludes, the Ruhuna Kingdom is not only a treasure trove of legendary stories but also a living testament to Sri Lanka’s rich cultural and natural heritage.

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Great pretenders

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by Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

“Great Pretender”, originally sung in 1955 by Los Angeles based vocal group, The Platters, was given a new life by Freddie Mercury 32 years later, as he felt the song conveyed the way he felt about his public image. Mercury, born Farrokh Bulsara in Zanzibar to Indian-Parsi parents, became an icon of rock music, as a solo artiste as well as the frontman of ‘Queen’, and was sometimes referred to as ‘The Great Pretender’. Perhaps, he confirmed this at his death. Though he suffered from HIV/AIDS, kept it away from even the closest of his friend till he issued a statement just a day prior to his premature death at the age of 45 years, on 24 November 1991.

Sri Lanka has been blessed with a number of ‘great pretenders’, perhaps more appropriately called charlatans, over the years. Though it was brought into focus by the fiasco involving the ex-speaker Asoka Ranwala it is not a new phenomenon. By the way, Ranwala is yet to locate his certificates! The fiasco has left an indelible blot on the new administration which was elected on the promise of integrity. President AKD demonstrated his lack of experience by not taking prompt action and some NPP MPs who audaciously claimed that they were not concerned about a vote of no-confidence against Ranwala as they had a steamroller majority in Parliament! They are the ones who clamoured for a system change, castigating the previous MPS who defeated the no-confidence motion against the disgraced minister of health?

Although the Covid-19 pandemic is a distant memory, can we forget the charlatans who made a quick buck? Even prominent politicians foolishly consumed the Dhammika Peniya. Not to be outdone, a lecturer at the Faculty of Medicine in Galle concocted a pill, which he was able to market as a supplement! Wonder whether the Sri Lanka Medical Council took any action against this cheat?

Even before the pandemic, ‘Dr’ Eliyantha White, sans any medical qualifications, was a much sought-after figure in Sri Lanka thanks to the advertising campaign led by no less of a person than the then President Mahinda Rajapaksa! During the pandemic, Dr White went a step further.

Sadly, even Dr Anton Chitral Jayasuriya, known to his friends and colleagues as Kara ruined his reputation. He was 10 years my senior, qualifying in 1954 and obtaining MRCP in 1959. He worked as a Consultant Physician in the Department of Physical Medicine in General Hospital, Colombo. In 1974, he was selected, if I remember right with Dr Sylvia Perera, Anaesthetist, and Dr Stanmore de Alwis, Cardio-Thoracic Surgeon, to go on a three-months WHO fellowship to study acupuncture in China. Although the other two incorporated acupuncture into their practice gradually, Anton became a specialist in acupuncture overnight! In fact, he has written a number of books on acupuncture which are selling even today.

Anton started an institute of his own and started awarding degrees. In 1981, having read a news item that President J R Jayewardene was to award degrees at the convocation of this institute, I, as the Secretary of the Sri Lanka Medical Association, brought that to the notice of Dr N J Wallooppillai, the President of SLMA. Awarding degrees in that manner was illegal as only universities accredited by the University Grants Commission could do so. We sought an urgent appointment with President Jayewardene and briefed him stressing that he was in a difficult situation as he was the Minister of Higher Education then, UGC being under his purview. JRJ attended the convocation but did not award the degrees! Anton sent a letter of demand to SLMA threatening to sue for damages. When I tabled that at the next council meeting there were a lot of worried faces but I was able to convince the council that the best course of action was to ‘bin’ the letter. Nothing further was heard from Anton!

Anton then became a specialist in homeopathy and started the Open International University for Complementary Medicines (OIUCM or OIUCMED) in 1987. He stopped practising the brand of medicine he was qualified in. The Internet is full of information about him.

A company marketing says on its website: “He [Anton] also served as homeopathy physician to Queen Elizabeth, free of charge. As patronization for his service, the Queen has gifted several exotic vehicles to him including a few Rolls-Royce cars.” The Queen, as generous as she is, is not known to have gifted any cars to any physician, not even Prof Sir Huw Thomas, the long-standing Physician to the Queen!

Writing on Anton’s 90th birth anniversary, the Chairman of Sir Anton Jayasuriya Memorial Committee, who holds a Ph. D. in Public Relations (Honoris Causa) from Medicina Alternativa Open International University (90th birth anniversary of late Prof. Pundit Dr. Sir Anton Chitral Jayasuriya, a Sri Lankan newspaper has said he treated over 3.5 million people from over 140 countries without ever charging doctors’ fees for consultation or treatment, both from local as well as foreign patients. In his 50 years of practice, even if he worked every day, Anton would have had to see 191 patients daily to achieve the figure of 3.5 million. Total impossibility! What is written should be plausible at least!!

It is also mentioned that he got knighthoods from many countries. However, the UK is not one of them!

The aforesaid newspaper article contains this paragraph:

“The late inimitable Emeritus Prof. Dr. Carlo Fonseka in his Commemoration Orations on Prof. Anton has said that “his Alternate Medicines took the best from all systems. He promises to cure only those that can be cured, but always gives hope, courage and consoles them. Prof. Anton was a trailblazer, a pathfinder and a model Doctor. To meet him, is to have half your ailments cured. This placebo effect is due to his combination of personality, humour, wit and ambiguous statements that cut both ways.”

Only Carlo could have said so!

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2024 – The Year of Elections & 2025 – The Year of Consequences

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by Rajan Philips

“Elections have consequences,” President Barak Obama triumphantly told congressional Republicans in 2009, as he began his historic first term as the first African-American President of the United States of America. Obama had campaigned on the theme of a “United States” of America as opposed to an America divided into Red (Republican) States and Blue (Democratic) States. But in the Congress in Washington, Obama ran into a red wall of opposition masterminded by Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, who effectively stymied almost all of Obama’s initiatives, save the Affordable Health Care Act, aka Obama Care, that has been the most significant achievement of the Obama presidency.

Although McConnell could not achieve his stated objective of limiting Obama to a single-term presidency, his Machiavellian schemes found their perfect enabler when Donald Trump narrowly won the 2016 presidential election in what has been called a ‘white lash’ rebuke to Obama’s two-term presidency. Trump himself was held to a single term presidency when he lost the 2020 presidential election, but he is now returning to the White House after a more convincing win than in 2016, in yet another repudiation of the Obama legacy. A taunting slogan of the twin Republican triumphs under Trump has been the throwback to Obama: “Elections have consequences!”

With due apologies for making the US the centre piece of this year ending column, I am inclined to suggest that the election-consequence dialectic is appropriate as we see off 2024 and look ahead to 2025. And that is because 2024 was a year of exceptionally large number of elections and the consequences of their results are bound to be processed through much of the year 2025. According to the National Democratic Institute that keeps a worldwide tab on elections, more than 100 countries had elections in 2024 including eight of the world’s ten most populous countries, viz., Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and the United States, as well as the European Union. Of the two outliers, China has its own system, and Nigeria will have its general election in 2025.

More tellingly, in more than 80 countries the incumbent governing parties saw a fall in their vote share from the previous election; in a good number of them governing parties were thrown out of office. Such a large volume of turnovers has never happened before according to election chroniclers, not since 1905 when elections data base was started and not since 1894 when universal franchise was first introduced. In Brazil, Indonesia, the US and the UK, the incumbent governments were defeated. In Japan, the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was reduced to a minority government. In India and South Africa, the governing BJP and ANC held on to power but had their parliamentary majorities significantly reduced.

There were six elections in South Asia alone – besides the three sub-continental biggies, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives held national elections in 2024. Bangladesh was the first to go with elections in January 2024 with the governing Awami League retaining power as expected, but against a handicapped opposition. What was not expected is that within eight months the Awami League government would be overthrown by a youth uprising and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina would be forced to flee the country after being in office for 15 years.

But the interim government in Bangladesh that was set up to provide a bridge to new elections and a newly elected government is overwhelmed by the challenges of governing and restoring normalcy. And Bangladesh, 53 years after its fiery birth in 1971, is once again caught up in yet another phase of chaos and uncertainty. In Pakistan, the February elections were made inconclusive and the Pakistan Muslim League of the Sharifs managed to cobble together a coalition government that kept Imran Khan in jail and his PTI party in opposition. Economic stability is said to have been restored but the political instability over Imran Khan continues.

A new twist plot is apparently originating in Washington. President elect Trump is reported to have picked Richard Grenell, a Trump loyalist with deep Republican roots, as his envoy for special missions abroad. Mr. Grenell is the most noted American supporter of Imran Khan and soon after his appointment by Trump, Grenell has posted on X – “Free Imran Khan!” Grenell has also compared Imran Khan’s jail trouble to Trump’s indictments in the US. Grenell’s new appointment and his support of Imran Khan has triggered speculations and discussions in Washington and in Pakistan.

Sri Lankan Oasis

Relatively speaking, Sri Lanka has come out of the elections quite unscathed unlike many other countries. This is all the more remarkable because of the momentous transfer of power from a decadent bunch of political bandicoots to a new generation of leaders and parliamentarians who are also the legatees of an old movement that was notorious for its intolerance, violence and even chauvinism. The credit and kudos truly belong to the people who through the peaceful exercise of their voting rights brought about a sweeping change in the executive and the legislature.

Truth be told, Sri Lankans have had their travails for decades on end. The insurrection of 1971 and the riots of 1977 and 1981, not to mention the riots of 1958, were isolated occurrences and are now distant memories. But what began with the referendum of 1982 has been a steady and sequential unfolding of one crisis after another – the riots of 1983, the outbreak of Tamil political violence, the Indian intervention and second JVP uprising, long devastating periods of war between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan Army that ended in 2009, and the Rajapaksa era of the 21st century that followed and precipitated its own implosion by provoking the aragalaya protests. It has been a relentless four decades of crises and chaos aggravated by the tsunami disaster twenty years ago – on December 26, 2004.

The people deserve the political respite that they have got for themselves by exercising their vote in two national elections. Those elections must have consequences. And it is the responsibility of the new NPP government to use its executive and legislative powers to deliver sustainable political stability and economic growth. Last week, I suggested that President Dissanayake and his NPP government have made a solid, if not spectacular, start. One would hope that the solidity of governance will continue in 2025 and that there will be continuing indications throughout the year of the government’s positive intentions and initiatives.

Already, the President has indicated that local government and provincial council elections will be held in 2025 and there have also been statements that the government is planning to introduce new constitutional changes within three years. So, we can expect considerable movements on these fronts in 2025. Another test for the new government will be in dealing with UNHRC in Geneva and it will be interesting to see how this encounter will play out given the NPP government’s new approach to an old problem.

The elephant in the cabinet room will of course be the economy. And there are several aspects to it. The government has its work cut out in dealing with rice crisis and food security. On the external front, the government’s main concern should be about expanding Sri Lanka’s export base in a systematic manner. This has not happened in 47 years of economic liberalization and the sole exception has been the garment industry.

Even the garment sector is reportedly showing signs of stagnation along with the lack of development of supporting industries for producing capital goods, spare parts and tools which are still imported for the main garment production. In addition, the garment industry and manufacturing in general are hampered by high utility costs, infrastructure limitations and skilled labour shortages.

The government should also pay attention to the technical (not left-ideological) criticisms of Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring agreements that were entered into by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Analyzing the controversial Bond Deal in July 2024, Brad Setser an US Economist with the Council on Foreign Relations, has expressed concern that the agreement would, “rather than reducing the risk of future debt trouble, Sri Lanka’s macro-linked bonds set up the risk that Sri Lanka will fall back into debt trouble in 2029 or 2030.”

The NPP government has indicated that it could not repudiate the agreements entered into by Ranil Wickremesinghe. Even so, it is worthwhile taking a second look at the issue and even ask the former President for his opinion on the technical criticisms of the bond deal and to assess any potential risk that Sri Lanka might be facing in five or six years. The purpose here is not to assign political blame but to have a realistic assessment of potential future risks to the country that might be in the commitments that have been made for the modalities of debt repayment.

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