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‘Country needs to stop runaway spread of virus to prevent rise of deadlier variants’
By Rathindra Kuruwita
The runaway spread of COVID-19 increased the danger of a new variant of the virus evolving in Sri Lanka, Prof. Suneth Agampodi, founder Professor and Chair – Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, said yesterday. If vaccines happened to be ineffective against such a variant, the whole vaccination process might become an exercise in futility, they warned.
“Some people think we can just reduce the number of deaths by increasing hospital capacity. They think that since most people don’t show severe symptoms, we could live with the COVID. What they don’t understand is that new variants are created when the virus spreads among a large number of people. That’s how the Alpha variant evolved in the UK and how the Delta variant came into being in India. Right now we are allowing the Delta variant to spread rapidly among the people and by this we are increasing the probability of a new dangerous variant evolving,” he said.
Prof. Agampodi also said that the chance of a COVID patient, over 70 dying, compared to a patient between 30 and 60, was 30 times higher. A person over 60 had a 2000% chance of dying compared to a patient between 30 and 60.
Prof. Agampodi said that during the pandemic, epidemiologists acted as the intelligence services of the state, and the government should listen to their warnings. If the government did nothing, despite the warnings of epidemiologists, it would be indirectly responsible for the deaths.
“We can’t expect people to do the right thing. If people do the right thing, we don’t need leaders or a government. There is no time to develop skills and change attitudes of the people. We are in the middle of a pandemic where there are over 150 daily reported deaths. We have seen how China and other countries have dealt with the pandemic when it was reaching critical stages; we know what to do. We must formulate policies and implement them strictly. If we impose a curfew now people will stop dying in large numbers between two to four weeks,” he said.
The Chair – Department of Community Medicine said it was ridiculous to expect people to follow the health regulations as regards gatherings. Given that there was no hope of self-discipline, people’s behaviour should be governed by law.
“When the government enforced a curfew in March 2020, I was in Yale. I was critical of the move then because I thought it was overkill. But after coming back I realised that curfew was the only way to put a stop to this. We can have a curfew but still maintain economic activity in vital sectors, through proper planning,” he said.
Dr. Chandima Jeewandara of the Allergy, Immunology and Cell Biology Unit, Department of Immunology Molecular and Molecular Medicine of the University of Sri Jayewardenepura, said that the number of new COVID-19 cases were at least 10 times the number of reported cases.
Dr. Jeewandara said that people should receive vaccines against COVID-19 as soon as possible. Sri Lanka already used the best vaccines in the world such as AstraZeneca, Sinopharm, Moderna, Pfizer and Sputnik-V, but he regretted that fewer than 20% of the people had been double jabbed.
“Getting one dose of a vaccine is not enough, at all. To get enough protection, you need to take both doses and wait two weeks. Jabs will prevent you from dying of Covid-19. But can still get infected and spread the disease to others. So don’t let your guard down,” he said.
Dr. Jeewandara added that there were 11,000 people over the age of 60 who had not received a single dose of the vaccine. It was a high risk group and anecdotal evidence suggested that most of them had not been inoculated because they feared that the vaccine would exacerbate existing conditions. Some people were afraid of vaccination.
“My advice is that if you are over 60 and have existing conditions, you must get vaccinated. You are in a highly vulnerable group. If you contract Covid-19, your lives will be in danger. Some people think that there is no need to vaccinate their elderly parents because they are always home. The elderly might be at home but the others go out every day. Most people show no symptoms, and they can easily bring the disease home.”
Dr. Jeewandara said that a number of people had contacted him about getting a booster shot and almost all of them were those in positions of influence. Given that 80% of Sri Lankans had not received their second dose, the main goal of the government was to give both doses to everyone, especially to those in the vulnerable groups.
“New variants are created in countries that have a lot of cases. The best examples are the UK and India. In Sri Lanka we can already see there are mutations of the Delta variant. When we do gene sequencing, we upload our data to a global database. Our international colleagues have told us that there are mutations in Delta samples we have submitted and there is a risk of these developing into dominant variants. Given that there are a large number of cases in the country, Sri Lanka needs to stop the spread of the virus as soon as possible,” he said.
Dr. Jeewandara added that Sri Lanka had not changed rules and regulations to meet changing circumstances. Although the current need was to test as many people as possible, the government had still not changed a circular issued in June banning the private sector from carrying out antigen tests.
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“I extend my heartfelt wishes to all Sri Lankans for a peaceful and joyous Sinhala and Tamil New Year!” – President
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, issuing a New Year message, extend his heartfelt wishes to all Sri Lankans for a peaceful and joyous Sinhala and Tamil New Year!
The Sinhala and Tamil New Year, which symbolises the aspiration for renewal both physically and spiritually, is the foremost cultural festival of the people of this country.
During the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, traditional customs are upheld, with priority accorded to rituals and religious observances, and activities undertaken collectively at a common auspicious time. This shared cultural practice vividly reflects our nation’s identity before the world, as well as the strong socio-cultural bonds that exist among our communities.
We firmly believe that the future path of national development can only be shaped in harmony with this invaluable culture and our distinguished historical heritage. Accordingly, it must be recalled that all our future development plans have been formulated upon the firm foundation of these precious traditions and cultural values.
Moreover, the common aspiration embodied in the customs and rituals associated with the solar transition is the nurturing of a compassionate individual who values togetherness, respects others, and lives in harmony with nature. I believe that the virtues and values of unity reflected in these New Year traditions should not be confined to these few days alone, but should instead be demonstrated throughout the year in our daily conduct.
In the face of the most significant recent natural disaster challenge encountered in the past year, we demonstrated to the world our resilience and capacity to withstand internal shocks. At the same time, in responding to the external challenges arising from the conflict in the Middle East, the Government has already set in motion a well-planned and effectively managed programme to overcome these difficulties.
As a nation, in overcoming these challenges together, I call upon all of you to further dedicate yourselves to enriching your lives through the values of togetherness, sharing, and solidarity exemplified during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year season.
As we strengthen the achievements we have secured and move forward with unwavering resolve in the face of emerging challenges, I invite everyone to join hands in unity to realise the vision of “A Thriving Nation – A Beautiful Life” for all.
I extend my heartfelt wishes to all Sri Lankans for a peaceful and joyous Sinhala and Tamil New Year!
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US blockade of Iran would worsen global energy crisis, analysts say
United States President Donald Trump’s planned naval blockade of Iran would further cripple international shipping, exacerbating the energy crisis roiling the global economy, analysts warn.
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on Monday after Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz and “interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran”
“Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION,” Trump said on Truth Social.
Central Command, the US military’s command responsible for operations in the Middle East, said in a statement the blockade would affect only ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, an apparent scaling-back of Trump’s threat to fully block the strait.
Trita Parsi, cofounder of the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said a US blockade would have a cascading impact across the global economy.
“Anything that currently takes more oil off the market will push prices up, which in turn will push gas prices further,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.
Oil could rise above $150 a barrel if the blockade were to trigger retaliation from the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, who could shut down Bab al-Mandeb, a strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, Parsi said.
The strait is an alternative export route for Gulf oil and gas.
A blockade aimed at depriving Iran of revenues would mark a sudden reversal in policy by Washington.
The Trump administration last month announced it would waive some sanctions on Iranian oil exports as a way to help ease the global energy crunch.
Iran has essentially closed the strait since the start of the US-Israeli war on February 28, allowing only a small number of ships to transit after vetting and authorisation.
About 3,200 vessels were stranded west of the strait due to the blockage as of Saturday, according to the maritime intelligence company Windward.
Anas Alhajji, former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital Management, said expected non-Iranian ships would likely keep avoiding the strait despite the US military’s assurances that they will not be impeded because of elevated insurance premiums.
Ships may also fear retaliation from Iran, Alhajji said.
“Therefore, the Trump blockade of the Iranian ports is an actual blockade of the Hormuz Strait,” Alhajji told Al Jazeera.
The resulting rise in oil and gas prices would also cause the cost of chemicals, fertilisers and raw materials used to make plastics to increase, according to analysts.
Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at the Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions, said he expects prices of many raw materials to rise within several weeks if Trump makes good on his blockade threat.
“The wild card really is the timeframe on this,” Johnson told Al Jazeera.
“If this is a negotiating tactic – remember we still have eight or nine days left of the ceasefire – then it may not really matter. But if this prolongs itself into the end of the month and into the first week of May, you will see prices all over the world spike for raw materials.”
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said the situation for global supply chains could get “much worse” under the blockade.
“Some of the problems are obvious, but many are not. As an example, fabrics will get more expensive,” Elms told Al Jazeera.
“Packaging is already a challenge for firms. Many can’t get blister packs for pills or lids for consumer goods. We can expect consequences for food production later this year and into next year with fertiliser disruptions and lack of supply,” Elms said.
Chad Norville, president of the oil and gas industry news site Rigzone, said Trump’s threat is a further blow to confidence in the situation in the strait ever returning to normal.
The threat alone is likely to drive up insurance premiums for shipping and logistics companies and reduce the volume of trade passing the strait each day, he said.
“Disruptions to shipping and elevated risk in the region were already well established due to the conflict,” Norville told Al Jazeera.
“This threat doesn’t create that baseline. It amplifies it by reinforcing uncertainty around one of the world’s most critical chokepoints.”
[Aljazeera]
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“Let us resolve, with renewed determination to overcome obstacles and build a better and more prosperous nation” -PM
Prime Minister Dr Harini Amarasooriya in her New Year message requested every Sri Lankan to resolve, with renewed determination to overcome obstacles and build a better and more prosperous nation.
The full text of the PM’s message:
“Marking the auspicious transition of the sun from one planet to another, and the arrival of the spring season following the harvest, the Sinhala and Tamil New Year celebrated by the people of Sri Lanka since ancient times, has dawned once again.
The New Year is not merely a festive occasion; it symbolizes a renewal of prosperity, unity, coexistence, and the strengthening of mutual relationships embedded within our cultural values.
On this occasion, I extend my wishes for a peaceful and prosperous Sinhala and Tamil New Year to all Sri Lankans who celebrate this occasion with their families and loved ones, observing customs at the auspicious time.
A unique feature of Sinhala and Tamil New Year is the way an entire nation comes together through a shared set of customs. Despite the demands and challenges of daily life, this season offers a valuable opportunity to move forward with renewed hope as families, communities and a nation.
The true blessing of the New Year lies in setting aside differences and grievances, and embracing a fresh beginning in a spirit of solidarity and goodwill. Especially in the face of ongoing global challenges, the courage, compassion and resilience shown by our people in facing various natural and economic hardships in recent times stand as an example to the world. It is our responsibility to carry forward that collective strength.
At this auspicious moment, I extend my greetings to our fellow Sri Lankans working overseas, who dedicate themselves to securing a better future for their families and for the country. In particular, I extend my thoughts for the safety and well-being of those living in the Middle East during these tumultuous times.
Let us resolve, with renewed determination to overcome obstacles and build a better and more prosperous nation. As we undertake in a significant social and political transformations, we remain committed to striving tirelessly towards a better future.
May this Sinhala and Tamil New Year be blessed with happiness and prosperity!”
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