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‘Containment Theory’ returns to West’s ties with East

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President Volodymyr Zelensky meets British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.(L)

In a vital sense history could be considered as having come full circle in the Ukraine theatre. For those sections of international opinion that began to look upon military invasions of one country by another as things of the past, the brutal invasion of Ukraine by Russia came as a rude awakening. Power bloc rivalries are not only ‘alive and well’ in international relations but imperialistic and colonial style over-running of seemingly weak countries by more powerful ones is very much within the realms of the possible, we are reminded.

However, as events are proving, Russia is not finding Ukraine, easy conquerable material. Save for some regions of Eastern Ukraine, Russia has hardly managed to make any notable invasive inroads into other areas of the country. The stiff military resistance offered by Ukraine to the Russians, apparently, is something Russia least expected. The indications are that the Ukrainians are endowed with phenomenal resourcefulness and this unyielding morale will prove one of Ukraine’s handiest weapons.

For the more seasoned watcher of world politics, the stalemate situation in Ukraine brings back striking memories of the USSR military invasion of Afghanistan some decades back. Well over a decade after the Afghan invasion, the USSR found the ‘going’ in Afghanistan extremely difficult and frustrating. The Mujahideen’s military resistance to the invading USSR forces proved to be unyielding as years went by, finally necessitating a USSR withdrawal of troops in the early nineties.

As in the case of the Ukrainians, the morale of the Mujahideen remained high during the period of the invasion. But morale was not the only factor that stiffened and rendered effective the armed resistance of the Mujahideen. There was the arms support provided by the West to the resisting guerrillas that needs to be factored in as well.

If not for the steady arms supplies via the ‘Washington-Islamabad Axis’ to the Mujahideen, the USSR invaders may have proved a tough proposition for the Afghan resistance. These Western arms enabled the resistance to take the fight back to the invaders in a major, decisive way.

History seems to repeat in the Ukraine theatre. Today, the West is solidly behind the Ukraine resistance and the former’s supplies of sophisticated arms are helping in a notable way to keep the invading Russians at bay. Moreover, the Russian military incursion of Ukraine is proving to be as costly a misadventure, in human and material terms, as the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.

The indications are that the West would not be backing down from supporting Ukraine with lethal armaments, going forward. At the time of writing Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is visiting some important Western capitals and his talks with the relevant political leaders are proving productive, if the arms support that has been pledged and extended is anything to go by.

Latest reports indicate that Britain, for instance, has committed itself to provide Ukraine with a species of new cutting-edge cruise missiles. Likewise, France will be delivering additional light tanks and armoured vehicles, while Germany will reportedly grant a USD 3 billion arms package to Ukraine. The total arms promised by the West between December 2022 and February 2023 to Ukraine are said to be in the region of $ 33 billion.

Thus, the Ukraine conflict has shaped-up as a notable testing ground of the West’s power and influence, since the USSR invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The Ukraine theatre, it could be said, is an arena where the West fights Russia indirectly through the Ukraine armed forces, although the West is likely to see itself as morally obliged to stand by Ukraine as well.

However, the Cold War overtones of the Western involvement in Ukraine cannot be glossed over. In times past, the West fought the USSR indirectly through scores of proxy wars in the Eastern and Western hemispheres.

Containing the power of the USSR and that of the communist bloc was the principal aim of the West in those conflicts, prior to the collapsing of communism in Europe and outside. Since Russia is seeing itself as securing some of its vital security interests in the Ukraine invasion, characterizing the current East-West confrontation in Ukraine as an extension of sorts of the Cold War of yesteryear is justifiable to a degree.

However, there is no noticeable ideological component in the West’s current efforts to contain Russia’s power and influence in Ukraine, considering that contemporary Russia is in no way communistic or Left wing. Rather, coming to the fore are Realpolitik considerations. It is a question of cutting down a power to size that is seen as antagonistic to the West.

The alliance between Russia and China contributes a measure of complexity to the current international political situation. It does not render itself amenable to simplistic thinking. Since China too is anything but communistic in the traditional sense of the term, what seems to be uniting Russia and China is a common interest in blunting the power and influence of the West. Once again, Realpolitik comes into play.

Therefore, contemporary world politics could be said to be defined in the main by the struggle between the West and the China-Russia combine or the East for international power and influence. Expressed simply, current international politics highlight the power play between these blocs that represent the West and East.

Considering that the West, or the US, is in an effort to contain the influence of Russia and its allies in the Ukraine theatre and in Eastern Europe as a whole, it would be misleading on the part of the US and its backers to try to project themselves as being on an ethical mission in the Ukraine. However, there is no denying that the people of Ukraine have been wronged and that their dignity and sovereignty should be restored.

The latter task needs to be taken on by the UN and those state parties and quarters that recognize the moral authority of the world body. There was a time when the US professed to be motivated by the Truman Doctrine which proclaimed that it ought to be the policy of the US to ‘support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressure.’ Given that it is locked in a power struggle with the East and little else, the US and its allies could be accused of hypocrisy if they claim the moral high ground in Ukraine.



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The Division Bell Mystery

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 3

The murder, in a private dining room in the house, is of a financier with whom the government was negotiating a loan. When this seemed difficult the Minister of Home Affairs agreed to lead discussions, since he had known Mr Oissel the financier when they were young. Hence the private dinner, but when the Minister stepped out for a vote, Oissel was shot just as the Division Bell rang.

The Brahms and Simon detective novels, the first of which I wrote about last week, were amongst several books by the pair that Robert Scoble gave me when I was in Australia towards the end of last year. Amongst them was another thriller of a very different sort, though that too was written and set between the wars.

Called The Division Bell Mystery, it was set in the House of Commons, the first such book I believe, and was by Ellen Wilkinson, a Labour MP who became Minister of Education in Attlee’s government after the war, having served previously as Parliamentary Private Secretary to several ministers. Her hero Robert West is also a PPS, but a conservative, and his Minister, of Home Affairs, is an old style aristocrat, not much loved by the less orthodox Prime Minister, who nevertheless needs his support on many occasions.

The murder, in a private dining room in the house, is of a financier with whom the government was negotiating a loan. When this seemed difficult the Minister of Home Affairs agreed to lead discussions, since he had known Mr Oissel the financier when they were young. Hence the private dinner, but when the Minister stepped out for a vote, Oissel was shot just as the Division Bell rang.

West was just outside the door when the shot was heard, and when he opened it saw only the dead body with a revolver beside it. The assumption that this was suicide was however challenged by Oissel’s grand-daughter Annette, who was his heir, on the grounds that he would never have killed himself. But her view was given greater credence by the Inspector put in charge of the case who said there were no burn marks on the body which would have been the case had Oissel fired the pistol himself.

Matters are complicated by the fact that Oissel’s flat had been burgled while he was at dinner, and Jenks the policeman allocated to him, who had served the Home Secretary and seemed more acceptable to Oissel than someone from the Security Service, had been killed. Matters get even more complicated when Annette says her grand-father’s notebook in which he wrote his secrets in cipher was missing.

That was found in Jenks’ pocket, and then a photographer came to West to say he had been asked by Jenks to photograph this. More worryingly for West, he finds in the Home Secretary’s drawer a few pages from the notebook with what appears to be an interpretation of the cipher.

Ellen

Overwhelmed by all this he confides in a recently created peer who knows all about the business world, who insists that they leave the house party at which they had met over dinner and discuss the matter with the Prime Minister who promptly summons the Home Secretary.

But the Home Secretary had gone to Scotland to launch a ship over the weekend, so the meeting could take place only on the morning of the Monday, when difficult questions were expected on the adjournment motion. He admits at the meeting that he had got Jenks to take the notebook, and also that he knew the code since it had been created by him and Oissel when they were young.

He thought he should resign, and even contemplated suicide, but the Prime Minister told him that that would be even worse for the government, and that he should go home to bed. The Prime Minister said that he himself would handle the question, which he did with aplomb, insisting that confidentiality was needed until the inquest. What had happened would be made clear then, he declared, leaving West and Inspector Blackit and Lord Dalbeattie what seemed the impossible task of solving the murder.

Dalbeattie had suggested that West ask a female Labour MP who was very fond of him to get what information she could from the staff. That there was some involvement there had become clear when West, going back late one night to collect a briefcase he had left in a dining room, found someone lurking in the dark in the corridor outside the private rooms. Room J, where the murder had happened, was meant to be guarded throughout by a policeman, but he had left the room having felt dizzy, and it seemed that his coffee had been drugged. West’s sudden appearance however had prevented anyone else getting into the room.

Dalbeattie decides to recreate the scene of the murder and has a dinner party in Room J on the Tuesday night, inviting West and Annette and the society hostess at whose house he had met, and also Patrick Kinnaird, an MP who was engaged to Annette, as well as the Permanent Secretary to the Home Ministry.

After coffee Inspector Blackit comes in with Grace, the Labour MP who had got the confidence of the staff, and a journalist who had also been helpful, and just as they say they think they are on the track the division bell rings. Grace jumps up and tells the Inspector that that provides the solution and they get a ladder, and sure enough find the revolver in the space where the bell is. Directed at the place where Oissel had sat, it had been primed to go off with the ringing of the bell. The waiter who had helped to set things up made clear who the murderer had been.

The reason for the murder and the confused motives of all those involved made for a fascinatingly intricate mix. But also impressive in the book were the descriptions of the isolation possible in the crowded premises of the house, the forceful characterization of the members – Grace based on the writer, the society hostess based on Nancy Astor, the first female MP – and the laid back nature of senior politicians which West realized had to change in the brave new world of high finance.

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The challenge of keeping value-based politics alive

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Anti-migrant protests in Durban, South Africa. BBC

The current outbreak of anti-immigrant protests in Durban, South Africa is bound to have taken many a subscriber to value-based politics or political idealism quite by surprise. After all, this is evidence that despite the historic accomplishments of nation-builders of the stature of the late President Nelson Mandela it cannot be taken for granted that identity politics, including racism in its worst forms, is no more in South Africa.

At the time of this writing details are scarce on the substantive root causes of the protests but it could very well be that economic grievances, particularly on the part of the majority community in South Africa, are contributing considerably to the disaffection. Shrinking employment and material prospects are likely to figure majorly among the factors igniting the unrest.

Fortunately, the local authorities in Durban are losing no time in calling for peaceful co-existence among the relevant communities and are pointing to the vital importance of stepping-up national integration processes. Apparently, immigrants in sizable numbers from neighbouring countries are present in Durban. However, international TV footage of the protests quoted some local authorities as saying that the majority of the immigrants in some centres that housed them were not illegal migrants and had the documents that entitle them to be in Durban.

In the Durban protests the world has fresh proof of the socially divisive consequences of the gathering globe-wide economic disaffection, touched off particularly by the continuing crisis in West Asia. Going ahead, the world would need to brace for increasing identity-based unrest of the kind it is just witnessing in South Africa.

Considering that the material lot of ordinary people everywhere could only aggravate progressively, with the US and Iran showing no signs of negotiating an end to their confrontation any time soon, it will be left to the more democratic and progressive sections of the world community to initiate positive measures collectively to bring a measure of relief to the discontented.

The swiftness with which such relief will be provided would depend crucially on the importance those sections taking up these undertakings attach to value-based politics as opposed to Realpolitik of power politics.

Going by these yardsticks, Italy could be considered to be moving in the right direction. Recently Italy came to the fore in initiating the collective named, ‘Rome Coalition for Food Security and Access to Fertilizer’, which has as one of its aims the swift provision of fertilizer to economically weak African countries.

In a recent statement Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Antonio Tajani, said that a principal aim of the project was to ensure that the farmers of Africa gained easy access to fertilizer, considering that food security is a growing concern among some of Africa’s economically vulnerable countries.

The statement went on to mention that some 30 countries hailing from the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, the Balkans as well as the FAO had been invited to join the coalition. The venture is far-seeing in that food security is main among the reasons for social discontent which in turn could degenerate into endemic political turmoil and bloodshed. Separatist violence and geographical fragmentation of countries wouldn’t be too far behind these developments, as Africa itself has often proved.

It is hoped that more G7 countries would take the cue from Italy and do what they could to ease the hardships of economically distressed countries, particularly of the global South. In these efforts they would need to break rank with the US, which is today brutally indifferent to the consequences of its policy of making ‘America First’, come what may.

Going by current developments, the Trump administration seems to be blithely oblivious to the wider, deleterious effects of its policy course in West Asia. Besides rendering Iran militarily and otherwise impotent nothing else seems to matter to Washington, as regards West Asia. This is policy short-sightedness of an extreme kind. After all, right now West Asia could be said to be sitting on the proverbial powder keg.

On the other hand, Iran is not giving the world the impression that it is doing anything constructive to get out of the policy straitjacket that it wove for itself decades ago. Rather than enter into a policy of ‘live and let live’ in relation to Israel in particular and initiate a process of reconciliation with the latter, it has chosen to operate within policy parameters that continue to damn Israel. This has put Israel always on the ‘defensive’ so to speak and prevented the opening up of space for meaningful dialogue.

That said, Israel is obliged to explore the possibilities of entering into a negotiatory process with the Arab-Islamic world that could lead to a de-escalation of tensions and bloodshed. It cannot continue to look at its neighbours through lenses that distort them as archetypal enemies who should be ‘wiped off completely from the face of the earth.’

In other words, the need is urgent for Realpolitik to give way to value-based politicks. Italy is beginning to prove that the latter approach could be pursued with some success. May be the EU and the UK could throw their weight behind these initiatives as well and establish that international politics could be refashioned on the basis of humane, civilized norms. The UN would need to be fully supportive of these moves and prove an organizational nucleus of the operations that follow.

In fact the time is ripe for people of conscience to collectively stand up on the side of peace and say ‘No’ to war and violence. Organizations such as the ICRC, the WHO and Medicines Sans Frontiers have already taken up this call. Referring to the widespread destruction of health facilities and their dehumanizing results these organizations have said, among other things, that ‘This is not a failure of the law. It is a failure of political will.’

True, ‘failure of political will’ among those powers that matter accounts for the runaway, uncontrollable nature of war and destruction in contemporary times, but more fundamentally it is a failure of the human conscience. It could very well be that the phenomenal levels to which violence and war have been unleashed today have had the effect of deadening consciences. This is a matter for urgent study and wide discussion.

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Vesak celebrations … with Cuteefly

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Perfect for celebrations, gifts, and meaningful occasions // Gift pack

I would describe Indunil Kaushalya Dissanayaka as innovative and creative, and she operates under the name of Cuteefly.

Indunil always comes up with something novel to celebrate special occasions, and she does it with candles … and that’s her profession.

She was in the spotlight when she created a happening scene, with candles, for Christmas, Sinhala and Tamil New Year, and Valentine’s Day.

As lanterns light up Sri Lanka for Vesak, the Colombo-based candle maker is quietly turning wax and wick into little pieces of the festival.

Candles reflecting Vesak themes

Her candles reflect Vesak themes – light, peace, remembrance, giving, etc., to enable you to fill your Vesak celebration with devotion and beauty.

Among her Vesak creations is a lotus-shaped soy candle, scented with sandalwood, lavender, etc., meant to burn during this Vesak Poya Day.

Indunil Kaushalya Dissanayaka: Customers
praise her for her creativity

These handcrafted Vesak candles are perfect for offering at the temple, she says.

What makes her creations so novel is that they come in different shapes, scents, themes, and all are handmade.

What’s more, her customers have heaped praise on her for her creativity.

According to Indunil, her creations are perfect as a thoughtful gift … to bring beauty, unity, and light into every moment.

Says Indunil: “Our beautifully handcrafted Unity candles are designed with premium detail and love, making them perfect for celebrations, gifts, and meaningful occasions.”

Cuteefly, says Indunil, is available online.

Readers could contact Indunil on 0778506066 for more details.

He Facebook Page is: Cuteefly.

Handmade with love

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