Friday 17th July, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must be on cloud nine. The US is now doing exactly what he wanted it to do; it is attacking Iran without Israeli involvement. Israeli officials have told the media that they do not expect Israel to become directly involved in the new phase of fighting though the Israel Defence Forces remain on alert should the conflict expand. This can be considered another dream come true for Netanyahu, who said after the first round of US-Israeli airstrikes which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that he had been dreaming of attacking Iran for 40 years.

What is unfolding in West Asia is an asymmetric conflict where the US firepower is far superior to that of Iran, which is resisting Trump’s “Epic Fury”. Tehran’s resilience is remarkable. The US cannot go on carrying out airstrikes indefinitely. Only a ground war will determine a clear winner.

Trump has threatened a ground assault in Iran, but he has the war powers resolution passed by the Congress recently to contend with. A ground operation won’t be a walk in the park. Deploying ground troops is a high-risk gamble that did not pay off for the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan. A steady flow of body bags from a foreign theatre of war that lacks popular support at home has the potential to unsettle any government.

Weapons stockpiles are not unlimited for any nation however mighty and wealthy it may be. The ongoing conflict has depleted the weapons inventories of both sides to it. However, it can be considered a matter of greater concern to the US than Iran in that Washington has to fire a large number of missiles at multiple targets in Iran as part of its strategy to keep Tehran under pressure. Michael O’Hanlon, who leads the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy research, has been quoted by the media as saying that the US weapons stockpiles are doubtlessly lower than Washington would prefer.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, has reportedly said that by the time full-scale fighting between the US and Iran stopped in April, the Pentagon had fired at least half of its THAAD ballistic missile interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot air defence interceptors, and around 30% of its Tomahawk land-attack missiles. This revelation runs counter to President Trump’s boastful claim that the US has a never-ending supply of missiles. Besides, in March, Trump said that his officials had met the heads of US arms manufacturing companies and they had promised to increase production.

Military analysts are of the view that it could take between one to four years for the US to replenish its vital munitions stockpiles and restore them to the pre-Iran war levels, according to an Al Jazeera report. Speculation is rife in international defence circles that if the depletion of the US weapons stockpiles continues at this rate, Washington may find it difficult to face a military conflict elsewhere.

Global oil prices are rising again due to the closure of the Hormuz Strait. A US naval blockade will be of little use. The global economy will be the biggest loser. Oil supply disruptions will take a heavy toll on the US economy as well. The first phase of the Iran war sent the US fuel prices up, and the closure of the Hormuz chokepoint will make the situation far worse. Trump is fighting a war that a vast majority of Americans are opposed to, according to opinion survey results. US farmers have been complaining of production cost escalations due to the knock-on economic effects of the West Asia conflict, according to media reports. US midterm elections are due in a few months and the Republicans are not doing well on the political front.

The White House will have to justify the colossal amounts of funds being spent on the current war. The financial cost of the conflict is still being calculated, but according to some estimates the direct military cost ranges from about USD 40 billion to more than USD 100 billion, with equipment losses, base repairs and weapons replenishment being taken into account. The cost continues to escalate. These politico-economic factors will also have a bearing on Trump’s military campaign.

Thursday 16th July, 2026

Occasions are not rare when absurd twists and turns in Sri Lanka’s legal system remind us of Mr. Bumble, the famous Dickensian character, who declared, “The law is an ass”. The police arrest criminals, after months of meticulous planning, risking their life and limb, but the latter obtain bail, go into hiding, either here or overseas, and continue to run their illegal operations. The police have to launch fresh operations to arrest the criminals on the run.

The police have sought information about Mohommad Najim Mohommad Imran alias Kanjipani Imran, who is wanted under an INTERPOL Red Notice. He is running his criminal operations from overseas, according to a report published in this newspaper yesterday. It defies comprehension why he was released on bail in 2021 though it was patently clear that he would flee the country.

Quoting the police, our news item has said intelligence reports point to links between Imran and international terrorist organisations as well as major mafia syndicates, which enable him to use transnational networks and technology to manage drug trafficking and other criminal operations.

Much is being spoken these days about the need to strengthen public confidence in the judiciary. There is no gainsaying that everything possible must be done to preserve the integrity and dignity of the judiciary. Worryingly, some issues crop up, making one wonder whether a section of the law enforcement authorities and some members of the legal fraternity bend the law to safeguard the interests of wealthy underworld figures at the expense of the judicial process and public security.

The police and the state prosecutor take great pains to prevent some suspects, especially the political opponents of governments in power, from obtaining bail. They invoke all laws and come out with various arguments to have such suspects held on remand for extended periods. Instances abound where their investigations get underway in earnest only after suspects are arrested and remanded for weeks, if not months, while ruling party politicians conduct social media trials, as it were, and declare the suspects guilty, with no heed for the presumption of innocence or the fact that public speculation is prohibited when cases are sub judice.

When Imran was arrested in Dubai and extradited in 2019, it was widely thought that he would have his work cut out to secure bail because Sri Lanka police and their UAE counterparts had worked tirelessly for months to arrest him and Makandure Madush, known as Sri Lanka’s Napoleon of Crime, and bring them here. Madush was shot dead while in custody, and the then government claimed that he had been caught in the crossfire between police and an underworld gang while being taken to a place where a haul of narcotics was believed to have been buried. It is doubtful whether the discerning public bought into that claim.

The news of Imran being released on bail raised many an eyebrow. We said in an editorial comment dated 02 January 2023 that having secured bail he would flee the country and carry out his illegal operation from overseas as other criminals did.

However, Imran is not the only criminal to have jumped bail and fled the country. Janith Madushanka de Silva alias Podi Lasi, a dangerous underworld character, fled to India after being released on bail in 2024. He even claimed that his life was in danger and asked for police protection. It was obvious that he would flee the country, and he did so soon afterwards. One may recall that in 2020, while being detained at the Boossa high-security prison, he and two other criminals, known as Kosgoda Tharaka and Pitigala Keuma, threatened to kill the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Defence Secretary General Kamal Gunaratne and several senior prison officers. Podi Lasi bragged that their private armies were capable of striking anywhere at will. He was arrested in India and brought back in 2026. Thus, criminals are caught, released and caught again. Now, the police are trying to arrest Imran.

Only a thorough probe into the circumstances that led to the release of Imran on bail will reveal how he managed to manipulate the legal process and flee the country.

Wednesday 15th July, 2026

The JVP-NPP government’s efforts to increase the retirement ages of the judges of the Supreme Court (SC) and the Court of Appeal (CA) has triggered an avalanche of criticism. The Judicial Service Association of Sri Lanka (JSASL), which represents all District Court judges and Magistrates in the country, has also opposed the government move. It has written to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, informing him of its decision. However, the government remains unresponsive.

Ironically, the JVP affronted elderly politicians and officials in previous administrations, claiming that they were past their productive years and therefore had to be put out to pasture. But no sooner had it formed a government in 2024 than it brought two former police officers, Ravi Seneviratne and Shani Abeysekera, out of retirement and elevated them as the Secretary to the Ministry of Public Security and the Director of the CID, respectively, because they were members of the NPP’s Retired Police Collective. Its action compromised the integrity of the CID and the Ministry of Public Security. Now, it is trying to extend the retirement ages of some members of the judiciary selectively.

Several leading lawyers’ associations, both local and foreign, prominent political leaders and legal luminaries have unequivocally taken exception to the government’s proposed plan to amend the Constitution to extend the tenure of the SC and CA judges. The Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) is leading the campaign against the government plan at issue. Its arguments are cogent. The Colombo Law Society has also asked President Dissanayake not to proceed with the proposed constitutional amendment and warned that such a move could undermine public confidence in the judiciary. The Colombo High Court Lawyers’ Association has also called upon the government to abandon its controversial plan which, if implemented, will undermine judicial independence, disrupt career progression within the judicial service, and erode public confidence in the judiciary. The opponents of the government’s questionable move also include LAWASIA (the Law Association for Asia and the Pacific), which consists of regional association of lawyers, judges, jurists, legal academics and legal organisations in the Asia-Pacific region, and the Commonwealth Lawyers’ Association, which promotes the rule of law, an independent legal profession, access to justice, human rights and high standards of legal ethics.

All arguments put forth by the aforesaid legal associations are compelling. They have pointed out that a change benefiting sitting judges could create a perception of favouritism; judicial tenure is closely linked to the separation of powers and constitutional safeguards; any reform should follow broad consultation rather than a rushed constitutional amendment, and existing vacancies numbering four each in the SC and the CA, should be filled immediately through proper appointments rather than extending the tenure of current judges.

One may recall that in 2024, the then Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena told Parliament that following the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the height of Aragalaya, in July 2022, a foreign envoy and a group of Sri Lankans had striven to pressure him into appointing himself Acting President in violation of the Constitution, and their intention had been to plunge Sri Lanka into anarchy, like Libya. Tens of thousands of protesters were trying to march on Parliament at that time. The JVP has admitted that it sought to lead those protesters to Parliament. Luckily, Sri Lanka did not become Asia’s Libya in 2022, but four years on, under a JVP-led government, it runs the risk of facing the same fate as Zimbabwe!

Addressing a recent BASL public forum, CLA President Steven Thiru warned that Sri Lanka would risk repeating Zimbabwe’s judicial crisis if it went ahead with its controversial plan to extend the retirement ages of sitting judges arbitrarily. If Sri Lanka proceeded with an ad hoc, non-transparent extension of Superior Court judges’ tenure without a broad consultative process, it risked plunging its legal system into a crisis of legitimacy similar to that in Zimbabwe, he warned.

The government must abandon its ill-conceived plan to amend the Constitution to extend the tenure of the superior court judges. Instead, it must take steps to fill the vacancies in the SC and the CA. Let it be warned that missteps can lead to pratfalls.