Features
Budget 2021 – Playing Ostrich or Parading in the Emperor’s New Clothes?
by Anila Dias Bandaranaike, Ph. D.
The national budget is a financial plan, not a policy statement. Specific budget proposals become nonsense, unless they form part of a consistent whole. Unfortunately, Budget 2021 parts did not add up to a consistent whole. Yet, Sri Lanka’s leadership in both public and private domains did not seem to care.
Parliament and Corporate Response to the 2021 Budget
Budget 2021 was presented in parliament on 17 November 2020. Several analysts with knowledge, experience, and integrity reported that this budget 1) provided no numeric estimates of the revenue impact of the budget proposals (e.g. revenue lost or gained under each tax revision or concession); 2) had key estimates differing between the budget speech and the statistical tables by Rs. 50 – 70 billion, (e.g. Rs.1,961 billion vs. 2,019 billion for revenue, Rs. 3,525 billion vs. 3,594 billion for expenditure); and 3) had glaring inconsistencies between the budget proposals and associated numeric targets (highlighted below). However, on 10 December 2020, Budget 2021 was approved by parliament with a two thirds majority.
I have evaluated national budgets at post-budget seminars for over 15 years and been invited by the Parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), previously and this year, to help them analyse the budget. Never have I felt such despair for the management of this country’s finances.
Yet, observations in public by members of the corporate sector conveyed that they were either nervous of the adverse consequences of a thoughtful opinion or totally self-absorbed. Their observations only referred to tax breaks and concessions given to their own businesses. One panelist even contradicted his own words. He began by saying how happy he was that Budget 2021 gave his sector incentives instead of handouts, but in the next breath, asked the Government for a handout to pay employees in that sector during COVID-19! The newspapers quoted this. Sadly, corporate sector comments were uniformly superficial. Not one made any reference to the bigger picture – that the numbers did not match with statements in the budget speech and that the strategies presented could not deliver what they said they would, given the extremely difficult financial situation Sri Lanka is facing.
A New Government with Sri Lanka at a Crossroads
This was the maiden budget of a strong new government, elected with the people’s blessings, with greater powers under the 20th Amendment to the Constitution and a two thirds majority in parliament. Budget 2021 was a unique opportunity for a strong, capable government to implement difficult reforms to address Sri Lanka’s priorities. Alas, they lost this opportunity.
Sri Lanka is at a crossroads in a new global reality created by COVID-19. This reality underlines the fragility of global connectivity and uncertainty of Pre-COVID-19 economic activities as we knew them. International and domestic movement of people, goods, and services can no more be taken for granted. Sri Lanka’s priorities must adjust to this new reality.
As I see it, Sri Lanka’s immediate priorities should be to address:
= a pandemic-related health and welfare crisis; and
= a looming economic and debt crisis
Sri Lanka’s long-term priorities should be to reverse:
= People/skills drain of 200-300,000 per year, searching for greener pastures abroad;
= Environmental drain, with rainforests, sanctuaries, mangroves, coasts destroyed for short-term monetary gains; and
= Investment drain, with investment below 30% of GDP and declining.
Budget 2021, oblivious to reality, ignored both pandemic and priorities.
Irrelevant Budget
The government’s policy statement, ‘Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour’ is embodied in their 10 key principles. As I see it, those principles can be divided into three categories, People, Environment, and International Relations.
People:
People centric economic development (6) in a technology based society (7) with a productive citizenry and a vibrant human resource (5) in a disciplined, law abiding and values-based society (10) under a new constitution that fulfills the people’s wishes (4) and an administration free from corruption (3), giving priority to national security (1).
Environment:
Development of physical resources (8) with sustainable environmental management (9).
International Relations:
A friendly, non-aligned, foreign policy (2).
The budget speech hit some good buttons, consistent with their vision and Sri Lanka’s current reality —support the rural heartland, agriculture and small entrepreneurs; protect the environment; promote technology and vocational training; raise investment; curtail non-essential imports and expand exports; etc. However, budgetary allocations in the Appropriation Bill told a different story, as follows:
People:
The ministries of Defence (Rs.355bn) and Highways (Rs.330bn) were allocated 26% of total expenditure (Rs. 2,678 bn), while Health (Rs. 220bn), during a COVID-19 crisis, Education and related ministries, including pharmaceuticals, distance learning, technical and vocational skills and education reforms, (Rs.177bn) together, were allocated only 15% in total.
Most people live in rural communities. Yet, 15 ministries responsible for their key needs—agriculture, fisheries and livestock, irrigation and water supply—together only received an allocation of 10% (Rs. 262bn) of the total. The major share of Sri Lanka’s employment and output (GDP) is with her informal sector, not corporates. In Sri Lanka’s labour force, 53% work in the informal sector. They have no social security. 18% work in the public sector and only 29% work in the formal private sector. Yet, significant tax concessions and incentives in the budget prioritised listed or large corporates. The vast majority will continue to pay indirect taxes on their basic consumption, inconsistent with principle 6.
Critical structural reforms to address the mismatch between products of the education system and needs of the labour market, particularly English, mathematical, analytical and technological skills, identified in the policy statement, need funds. Yet, education reforms, vocational training and research and innovation received a paltry Rs.15 bn (0.5% of total expenditure), despite principles 5 and 7.
Critical structural reforms in the wage structure and labour laws to address employee dissatisfaction and reverse the exodus of professional, skilled and unskilled persons from Sri Lanka need funds. Without budgetary allocations for such reforms, brain and skills drain will continue, contrary to principle (5).
Environment:
The entire allocation for the environment (Rs. 9 bn) is below 3% of the Defence or Highways allocations. The environment is facing serious problems due to ill-conceived construction, encroachment, poaching, illicit logging and destruction of national parks, dry zone forest cover, rainforests, mangroves and wetlands. Yala, Wilpattu, Sinharaja, Anawilundawa, Mannar, Moneragala are examples highlighted in mainstream and social media recently. This budget only pays lip service to principles 8 and 9. Soon, we will have nothing to attract tourists in the short term nor for future generations in the long term.
International Relations
: This budget has been unable to build confidence with long-term foreign investors (highlighted below) to raise foreign investment, despite principle 2.
In summary, monetary allocations in Budget 2021 were neither relevant to the government’s vision nor Sri Lanka’s short-term and long-term priorities.
Unrealistic Budget
Budget 2021 estimates and strategies were unrealistic. For example,
1) The Budget’s GDP growth estimates were -1.6% for 2020 and +5.5 for 2021. Official GDP statistics released on 15 December recorded a contraction of -5.3% for the first three quarters of 2020. With the COVID-19 second wave, 2020 GDP will obviously contract by more than -5.3 %, highlighting the unrealistic optimism of GDP estimates.
2) The investment estimate was also optimistic. The official release of 2020 2nd Quarter GDP contraction of -15.3% was delayed by three months. Loss of confidence among potential local and foreign investors, by the deliberate withholding of official statistics, cannot be overcome by tax breaks and incentives. Two rating agencies, Fitch and Moody’s, downgraded Sri Lanka recently, criticizing economic management. Subsequently, the Citi Group went further, actually stating that the government is “in denial”. Serious long-haul investors will want positive signals from rating agencies. Who will invest here now?
3) The estimates for inflation and private sector credit expansion were inconsistent. The State Minister stated that there will be no IMF bailout, while the budget speech stated that bilateral loans and domestic borrowing would meet the deficit. This conveys that government will borrow from captive sources like state banks, EPF and ETF. Till now, with low private credit demand, interest rates have remained low. The estimated optimistic rise in private sector credit by 14.7% (6% in 2020), together with high govt borrowing and low interest rates cannot all three be reconciled. Alternatively, printing money will raise inflation to well over the 5% estimate.
4) Revenue was overestimated in relation to actual data up to October. With the tax breaks and tax holidays given, from where will this huge revenue appear in this current climate?
5) Budget 2021 made no effort to trim public sector expenditure, contradicting the policy statement. The deficit will likely be higher than estimated due to higher recurrent expenditure and debt repayments, unless investment is cut below budget, as has been done in the past.
6) The unrealistic economic strategies proposed for import substitution and export and investment promotion, respectively, were tried and failed in the Bandaranaike Government of ’70-77 and the Jayawardena Government of ’77-’90. Can old rhetoric promoting failed ideas succeed 30-50 years later?
In summary, Budget 2021 numbers were both unrealistic and inconsistent with Sri Lanka’s current economic and financial situation.
In conclusion, this budget is a farce set in an alternate reality. I cannot understand whether those who prepared it and who supported it are entirely devoid of thinking capacity or callously devoid of any regard for our people and our environment. Are they playing ostrich to fool themselves or making the emperor parade in his new clothes to fool himself and others? Either way, during 2021 and beyond, Sri Lanka will remain a country of vast potential and lost opportunities.
(The author is a former Assistant Governor and Director of Statistics of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka)
Features
More state support needed for marginalised communities
Message from Malaiyaha Tamil community to govt:
Insights from SSA Cyclone Ditwah Survey
When climate disasters strike, they don’t affect everyone equally. Marginalised communities typically face worse outcomes, and Cyclone Ditwah is no exception. Especially in a context where normalcy is far from “normal”, the idea of returning to normalcy or restoring a life of normalcy makes very little sense.
The island-wide survey (https://ssalanka.org/reports/) conducted by the Social Scientists’ Association (SSA), between early to mid-January on Cyclone Ditwah shows stark regional disparities in how satisfied or dissatisfied people were with the government’s response. While national satisfaction levels were relatively high in most provinces, the Central Province tells a different story.
Only 35.2% of Central Province residents reported that they were satisfied with early warning and evacuation measures, compared to 52.2% nationally. The gap continues across every measure: just 52.9% were satisfied with immediate rescue and emergency response, compared with the national figure of 74.6%. Satisfaction with relief distribution in the Central Province is 51.9% while the national figure stands at 73.1%. The figures for restoration of water, electricity, and roads are at a low 45.9% in the central province compared to the 70.9% in national figures. Similarly, the satisfaction level for recovery and rebuilding support is 48.7% in the Central Province, while the national figure is 67.0%.
A deeper analysis of the SSA data on public perceptions reveals something important: these lower satisfaction rates came primarily from the Malaiyaha Tamil population. Their experience differed not just from other provinces, but also from other ethnic groups living in the Central Province itself.
The Malaiyaha Tamil community’s vulnerability didn’t start with the cyclone. Their vulnerability is a historically and structurally pre-determined process of exclusion and marginalisation. Brought to Sri Lanka during British rule to work for the empire’s plantation economies, they have faced long-term economic exploitation and have repeatedly been denied access to state support and social welfare systems. Most estate residents still live in ‘line rooms’ and have no rights to the land they cultivate and live on. The community continues to be governed by an outdated estate management system that acts as a barrier to accessing public and municipal services such as road repair, water, electricity and other basic infrastructures available to other citizens.
As far as access to improved water sources is concerned, the Sri Lanka Demographic Health Survey (2016) shows that 57% of estate sector households don’t have access to improved water sources, while more than 90% of households in urban and rural areas do. With regard to the level of poverty, as the Department of Census and Statistics (2019) data reveals, the estate sector where most Malaiyaha Tamils live had a poverty headcount index of 33.8%; more than double the national rate of 14.3%. These statistics highlight key indicators of the systemic discrimination faced by the Malaiyaha Tamil community.
Some crucial observations from the SSA data collectors who enumerated responses from estate residents in the survey reveal the specific challenges faced by the Malaiyaha Tamils, particularly in their efforts to seek state support for compensation and reconstruction.
First, the Central Province experienced not just flooding but also the highest number of landslides in the island. As a result, some residents in the region lost entire homes, access roadways, and other basic infrastructures. The loss of lives, livelihoods and land was at a higher intensity compared to the provinces not located in the hills. Most importantly, the Malaiyaha Tamil community’s pre-existing grievances made them even more vulnerable and the government’s job of reparation and restitution more complex.
Early warnings hadn’t reached many areas. Some data collectors said they themselves never heard any warnings in estate areas, while others mentioned that early warnings were issued but didn’t reach some segments of the community. According to the resident data collectors, the police announcements reached only as far as the sections where they were able to drive their vehicles to, and there were many estate roads that were not motorable. When warnings did filter through to remote locations, they often came by word of mouth and information was distorted along the way. Once the disaster hit, things got worse: roads were blocked, electricity went out, mobile networks failed and people were cut off completely.
Emergency response was slow. Blocked roads meant people could not get to hospitals when they needed urgent care, including pregnant mothers. The difficult terrain and poor road conditions meant rescue teams took much longer to reach affected areas than in other regions.
Relief supplies didn’t reach everyone. The Grama Niladhari divisions in these areas are huge and hard to navigate, making it difficult for Grama Niladharis to reach all places as urgently as needed. Relief workers distributed supplies where vehicles could go, which meant accessible areas got help while remote communities were left out.
Some people didn’t even try to go to safety centres or evacuation shelters set up in local schools because the facilities there were already so poor. The perceptions of people who did go to safety centres, as shown in the provincial data, reveal that satisfaction was low compared to other affected regions of the country. Less than half were satisfied with space and facilities (42.1%) or security and protection (45.0%). Satisfaction was even lower for assistance with lost or damaged documentation (17.9%) and information and support for compensation applications (28.2%). Only 22.5% were satisfied with medical care and health services below most other affected regions.
Restoring services proved nearly impossible in some areas. Road access was the biggest problem. The condition of the roads was already poor even before the cyclone, and some still haven’t been cleared. Recovery is especially difficult because there’s no decent baseline infrastructure to restore, hence you can’t bring roads and other public facilities back to a “good” condition when they were never good, even before the disaster.
Water systems faced their own complications. Many households get water from natural sources or small community projects, and not the centralised state system. These sources are often in the middle of the disaster zone and therefore got contaminated during the floods and landslides.
Long-term recovery remains stalled. Without basic infrastructure, areas that are still hard to reach keep struggling to get the support they need for rebuilding.
Taken together, what do these testaments mean? Disaster response can’t be the same for everyone. The Malaiyaha Tamil community has been double marginalised because they were already living with structural inequalities such as poor infrastructure, geographic isolation, and inadequate services which have been exacerbated by Cyclone Ditwah. An effective and fair disaster response needs to account for these underlying vulnerabilities. It requires interventions tailored to the historical, economic, and infrastructural realities that marginalized communities face every day. On top of that, it highlights the importance of dealing with climate disasters, given the fact that vulnerable communities could face more devastating impacts compared to others.
(Shashik Silva is a researcher with the Social Scientists’ Association of Sri Lanka)
by Shashik Silva ✍️
Features
Crucial test for religious and ethnic harmony in Bangladesh
Will the Bangladesh parliamentary election bring into being a government that will ensure ethnic and religious harmony in the country? This is the poser on the lips of peace-loving sections in Bangladesh and a principal concern of those outside who mean the country well.
The apprehensions are mainly on the part of religious and ethnic minorities. The parliamentary poll of February 12th is expected to bring into existence a government headed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist oriented Jamaat-e-Islami party and this is where the rub is. If these parties win, will it be a case of Bangladesh sliding in the direction of a theocracy or a state where majoritarian chauvinism thrives?
Chief of the Jamaat, Shafiqur Rahman, who was interviewed by sections of the international media recently said that there is no need for minority groups in Bangladesh to have the above fears. He assured, essentially, that the state that will come into being will be equable and inclusive. May it be so, is likely to be the wish of those who cherish a tension-free Bangladesh.
The party that could have posed a challenge to the above parties, the Awami League Party of former Prime Minister Hasina Wased, is out of the running on account of a suspension that was imposed on it by the authorities and the mentioned majoritarian-oriented parties are expected to have it easy at the polls.
A positive that has emerged against the backdrop of the poll is that most ordinary people in Bangladesh, be they Muslim or Hindu, are for communal and religious harmony and it is hoped that this sentiment will strongly prevail, going ahead. Interestingly, most of them were of the view, when interviewed, that it was the politicians who sowed the seeds of discord in the country and this viewpoint is widely shared by publics all over the region in respect of the politicians of their countries.
Some sections of the Jamaat party were of the view that matters with regard to the orientation of governance are best left to the incoming parliament to decide on but such opinions will be cold comfort for minority groups. If the parliamentary majority comes to consist of hard line Islamists, for instance, there is nothing to prevent the country from going in for theocratic governance. Consequently, minority group fears over their safety and protection cannot be prevented from spreading.
Therefore, we come back to the question of just and fair governance and whether Bangladesh’s future rulers could ensure these essential conditions of democratic rule. The latter, it is hoped, will be sufficiently perceptive to ascertain that a Bangladesh rife with religious and ethnic tensions, and therefore unstable, would not be in the interests of Bangladesh and those of the region’s countries.
Unfortunately, politicians region-wide fall for the lure of ethnic, religious and linguistic chauvinism. This happens even in the case of politicians who claim to be democratic in orientation. This fate even befell Bangladesh’s Awami League Party, which claims to be democratic and socialist in general outlook.
We have it on the authority of Taslima Nasrin in her ground-breaking novel, ‘Lajja’, that the Awami Party was not of any substantial help to Bangladesh’s Hindus, for example, when violence was unleashed on them by sections of the majority community. In fact some elements in the Awami Party were found to be siding with the Hindus’ murderous persecutors. Such are the temptations of hard line majoritarianism.
In Sri Lanka’s past numerous have been the occasions when even self-professed Leftists and their parties have conveniently fallen in line with Southern nationalist groups with self-interest in mind. The present NPP government in Sri Lanka has been waxing lyrical about fostering national reconciliation and harmony but it is yet to prove its worthiness on this score in practice. The NPP government remains untested material.
As a first step towards national reconciliation it is hoped that Sri Lanka’s present rulers would learn the Tamil language and address the people of the North and East of the country in Tamil and not Sinhala, which most Tamil-speaking people do not understand. We earnestly await official language reforms which afford to Tamil the dignity it deserves.
An acid test awaits Bangladesh as well on the nation-building front. Not only must all forms of chauvinism be shunned by the incoming rulers but a secular, truly democratic Bangladesh awaits being licked into shape. All identity barriers among people need to be abolished and it is this process that is referred to as nation-building.
On the foreign policy frontier, a task of foremost importance for Bangladesh is the need to build bridges of amity with India. If pragmatism is to rule the roost in foreign policy formulation, Bangladesh would place priority to the overcoming of this challenge. The repatriation to Bangladesh of ex-Prime Minister Hasina could emerge as a steep hurdle to bilateral accord but sagacious diplomacy must be used by Bangladesh to get over the problem.
A reply to N.A. de S. Amaratunga
A response has been penned by N.A. de S. Amaratunga (please see p5 of ‘The Island’ of February 6th) to a previous column by me on ‘ India shaping-up as a Swing State’, published in this newspaper on January 29th , but I remain firmly convinced that India remains a foremost democracy and a Swing State in the making.
If the countries of South Asia are to effectively manage ‘murderous terrorism’, particularly of the separatist kind, then they would do well to adopt to the best of their ability a system of government that provides for power decentralization from the centre to the provinces or periphery, as the case may be. This system has stood India in good stead and ought to prove effective in all other states that have fears of disintegration.
Moreover, power decentralization ensures that all communities within a country enjoy some self-governing rights within an overall unitary governance framework. Such power-sharing is a hallmark of democratic governance.
Features
Celebrating Valentine’s Day …
Valentine’s Day is all about celebrating love, romance, and affection, and this is how some of our well-known personalities plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day – 14th February:
Merlina Fernando (Singer)
Yes, it’s a special day for lovers all over the world and it’s even more special to me because 14th February is the birthday of my husband Suresh, who’s the lead guitarist of my band Mission.
We have planned to celebrate Valentine’s Day and his Birthday together and it will be a wonderful night as always.
We will be having our fans and close friends, on that night, with their loved ones at Highso – City Max hotel Dubai, from 9.00 pm onwards.
Lorensz Francke (Elvis Tribute Artiste)
On Valentine’s Day I will be performing a live concert at a Wealthy Senior Home for Men and Women, and their families will be attending, as well.
I will be performing live with romantic, iconic love songs and my song list would include ‘Can’t Help falling in Love’, ‘Love Me Tender’, ‘Burning Love’, ‘Are You Lonesome Tonight’, ‘The Wonder of You’ and ‘’It’s Now or Never’ to name a few.
To make Valentine’s Day extra special I will give the Home folks red satin scarfs.
Emma Shanaya (Singer)
I plan on spending the day of love with my girls, especially my best friend. I don’t have a romantic Valentine this year but I am thrilled to spend it with the girl that loves me through and through. I’ll be in Colombo and look forward to go to a cute cafe and spend some quality time with my childhood best friend Zulha.
JAYASRI

Emma-and-Maneeka
This Valentine’s Day the band JAYASRI we will be really busy; in the morning we will be landing in Sri Lanka, after our Oman Tour; then in the afternoon we are invited as Chief Guests at our Maris Stella College Sports Meet, Negombo, and late night we will be with LineOne band live in Karandeniya Open Air Down South. Everywhere we will be sharing LOVE with the mass crowds.
Kay Jay (Singer)
I will stay at home and cook a lovely meal for lunch, watch some movies, together with Sanjaya, and, maybe we go out for dinner and have a lovely time. Come to think of it, every day is Valentine’s Day for me with Sanjaya Alles.
Maneka Liyanage (Beauty Tips)
On this special day, I celebrate love by spending meaningful time with the people I cherish. I prepare food with love and share meals together, because food made with love brings hearts closer. I enjoy my leisure time with them — talking, laughing, sharing stories, understanding each other, and creating beautiful memories. My wish for this Valentine’s Day is a world without fighting — a world where we love one another like our own beloved, where we do not hurt others, even through a single word or action. Let us choose kindness, patience, and understanding in everything we do.
Janaka Palapathwala (Singer)

Janaka
Valentine’s Day should not be the only day we speak about love.
From the moment we are born into this world, we seek love, first through the very drop of our mother’s milk, then through the boundless care of our Mother and Father, and the embrace of family.
Love is everywhere. All living beings, even plants, respond in affection when they are loved.
As we grow, we learn to love, and to be loved. One day, that love inspires us to build a new family of our own.
Love has no beginning and no end. It flows through every stage of life, timeless, endless, and eternal.
Natasha Rathnayake (Singer)
We don’t have any special plans for Valentine’s Day. When you’ve been in love with the same person for over 25 years, you realise that love isn’t a performance reserved for one calendar date. My husband and I have never been big on public displays, or grand gestures, on 14th February. Our love is expressed quietly and consistently, in ordinary, uncelebrated moments.
With time, you learn that love isn’t about proving anything to the world or buying into a commercialised idea of romance—flowers that wilt, sweets that spike blood sugar, and gifts that impress briefly but add little real value. In today’s society, marketing often pushes the idea that love is proven by how much money you spend, and that buying things is treated as a sign of commitment.
Real love doesn’t need reminders or price tags. It lives in showing up every day, choosing each other on unromantic days, and nurturing the relationship intentionally and without an audience.
This isn’t a judgment on those who enjoy celebrating Valentine’s Day. It’s simply a personal choice.
Melloney Dassanayake (Miss Universe Sri Lanka 2024)
I truly believe it’s beautiful to have a day specially dedicated to love. But, for me, Valentine’s Day goes far beyond romantic love alone. It celebrates every form of love we hold close to our hearts: the love for family, friends, and that one special person who makes life brighter. While 14th February gives us a moment to pause and celebrate, I always remind myself that love should never be limited to just one day. Every single day should feel like Valentine’s Day – constant reminder to the people we love that they are never alone, that they are valued, and that they matter.
I’m incredibly blessed because, for me, every day feels like Valentine’s Day. My special person makes sure of that through the smallest gestures, the quiet moments, and the simple reminders that love lives in the details. He shows me that it’s the little things that count, and that love doesn’t need grand stages to feel extraordinary. This Valentine’s Day, perfection would be something intimate and meaningful: a cozy picnic in our home garden, surrounded by nature, laughter, and warmth, followed by an abstract drawing session where we let our creativity flow freely. To me, that’s what love is – simple, soulful, expressive, and deeply personal. When love is real, every ordinary moment becomes magical.
Noshin De Silva (Actress)
Valentine’s Day is one of my favourite holidays! I love the décor, the hearts everywhere, the pinks and reds, heart-shaped chocolates, and roses all around. But honestly, I believe every day can be Valentine’s Day.
It doesn’t have to be just about romantic love. It’s a chance to celebrate love in all its forms with friends, family, or even by taking a little time for yourself.
Whether you’re spending the day with someone special or enjoying your own company, it’s a reminder to appreciate meaningful connections, show kindness, and lead with love every day.
And yes, I’m fully on theme this year with heart nail art and heart mehendi design!
Wishing everyone a very happy Valentine’s Day, but, remember, love yourself first, and don’t forget to treat yourself.
Sending my love to all of you.
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