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Barking up the wrong tree

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Economic downturn due structural weaknesses and not ‘open economic’ policies

by Jayampathy Molligoda

This article makes an attempt to present few socio-economic factors and indicators reflecting Sri Lankan economic downfall and examine whether it has some bearing on our failure to address serious structural weaknesses in the economy for the last 45 years.

My view is it’s not the open economic policy that has contributed to the downfall of our economy. It’s due to the fact that successive governments have failed in undertaking much needed structural reforms in the economy. As a result, our export performance has drastically declined and thus widening the trade deficit. It should be clearly understood that large fiscal (government budget) and external ‘current account’ deficits, popularly known as the ‘twin deficit’, are the two key structural problems in Sri Lanka identified as core weaknesses of the economy for many decades. In addition, the socio-political issues also would have contributed to the deterioration of the quality of life of the majority of people and thus eroding ‘rich value systems’ prevailed in the Sri Lankan society for a long period of time.

Socio-political issues:

The political analysts had been critically commenting on the manner in which President JRJ managed the country’s political system and governed the country during the initial period of the Presidential system under 78 Constitution. His governance style had created some kind of impression that JRJ government had made attempts to use tactics to undemocratically oppress the legitimate opposition by, first taking out the civic rights of the Leader of opposition, Mr Sirima Bandaranaike and suppress the trade union instigated general strike in 1980 and then postpone the Parliamentary elections by six years through a referendum, thus playing into extreme terrorism of LTTE, JVP and breakdown in law & order.

As a result, there has been a gradual deterioration of the economy of this country, although, both President JRJ and later President Premadasa were able to transform the socio-political system in the country and spur economic growth paving way for employment creation through private investments. Since 1978, the government of the day has been following an aggressive open economic policy framework and until 2014 there has been some progress in much needed infrastructure development with the participation of foreign and local enterprises in the private sector. However, no attempt has been made to evaluate the efficacy & effectiveness of such investments to the economy. Even after the war was successfully ended by 2009, we couldn’t establish trust & understanding among communities to establish a long- lasting peace and sound national security & defence system and political stability which are necessary pre-requisites for economic development on a sustainable basis.

Examine few key economic indicators:

(A) Government debt and depreciation of rupee:

Our total government debt was only Rs. 80 billion by end 1982, which includes some of the foreign loans obtained for the acceleration of Mahaweli development programme completed within six years. As for rupee depreciation- by end 1977, it was Rs 15.56, and by end 1982, it was Rs 21.32 for one US $. As can be seen, it was a gradual upward movement of the value of US $ and not very high rupee depreciation during the period-1977 to 1982. Since then, government debt had been increasing at a much faster rate and at the end 2014, it has gone up to Rs. 7, 486 billion, and by end 2019, it has further increased up to Rs. 13,031 billion. Our total external debt as a % of GDP by end 2010 was only 38% and it had increased to 67% by end 2019. As for rupee depreciation- by end 2004, it was Rs. 104.61 for one US$ and by end 2014 it was Rs. 131.05, now it’s Rs. 204/ but in the black market, it’s around Rs235-Rs 240/=.

(B) Poor export performance:

Compared to other regional counterparts, Sri Lankan export performance has been declining and it can be concluded that the investments made in infrastructure projects are giving diminishing returns. During the two decades in 1980’s and 90’s, we saw our export performance commencing from 1980 at one billion US$ (in the year 1980) going up to US$ 4.6 billion in the year 1999 and US $ 11.9 billion in 2019. The export performance reflects 26% of the GDP during the two decades ending 1999. However, the next two decades commencing 2000 to end 2019, the export performance of Sri Lanka has drastically declined to 16% of the corresponding GDP figures. (See table)

As can be seen, our trade deficit during the period 2010 to ‘19 has widened to 78% of total exports and our exports as a % of GDP has also decreased from 28% during the period 1990-99 to 14% during the ‘10 years period’ of 2010 to ‘19. In fact, it was an average of only 13% during the period 2015 to ‘19. The export revenue has been stagnating at an average of US$ 10. 9 billion and the trade deficit has widened to an average of US $ 8.5 billion during the period 2010 to ‘19. Repeated attempts to offset the trade deficit through tourism proceeds and remittances have not been successful without having corresponding forex inflows from export proceeds and FDI. Further, the exchange rate policy has created competitiveness issues for exporters, as external trade counterparts have become more competitive at the global market place due to their currencies are getting depreciated at a faster rate. Just to give an illustration, one cannot hold by his two hands four rubber ball in the water simultaneously for a long period of time; similarly, (i) our bank interest rates, (ii) inflation rate, (iii) rupee exchange rate and (iv) expecting large inflows of FDIs, cannot be held back for a long period of time – it’s a recipe for disaster in economic sense. These factors have adversely contributed to current macro- economic situation lowering the economic growth & development of the country.

From the above economic indicators, it can be seen that during the last seven years, the economic situation got badly affected, out of which during the last two years, it was mainly due to Covid-19 and the year-2019, it was partly due to Easter Sunday attack. Up to now, our economy would have lost nearly US $ 10 billion as opportunity cost on account of tourism proceeds from May 2019 to end November 2021. It is expected that tourist arrivals will pick it up, targeting some 100,000 arrivals per month for the next 12 months ending 2022. It’s unfortunate the ‘political party blame culture’ also contributed to the deterioration of society’s values. Because of these events, the international community lost confidence in supporting SL and even private sector FDIs have failed to come. One can also conclude that inward looking policies will not offer solutions to foreign exchange crisis, although there is nothing wrong in promoting domestic production, smart agriculture and industrial revolutions, which covers ICT development. We cannot find solutions by simply blaming the present government or previous governments, instead the key opinion leaders (KOLs) could get the government of the day to bring in much needed financial discipline through government budgetary process and instil new political culture and demand the government to bring in much needed structural reforms in order to reverse the declining trend.

Radical changes are needed to address structural weaknesses:

During the Presidential elections in November ‘19, a massive mandate was given by masses to the incumbent President, GR to undertake much needed ‘system change’. The economic situation would improve, if we are able to make some structural reforms in the economic front and undertake radical changes in the socio-political front which include changes to some areas of the foreign policy implementation. The solution lies with the Government taking some bold decisions – however they need to be mindful to the political realities and maintain policy consistency, until we are able to overcome difficulties and improve credit rating.

Key structural reforms and radical changes:

a.The present $$$ crisis needs to be resolved immediately.

i.Trade deficit for a long period of time has been around US 10 billion per year.

ii.Expected tourism earnings may not be sufficient to offset deficits in the short term.

iii.External foreign exchange reserves are low- US $1,6 Billion by end November.

iv.Banking system is faced with severe foreign currency shortage for essential items.

b.Under a revolutionary Land reforms and proper land use plan, we need to identify uncultivated land parcels, which includes Mahaweli land to fast track cultivation and development work which could be handled under PPP models by inviting private sector participation with proper monitoring of progress through an effective regulatory mechanism.

c.Use ‘National Sustainable Development Council of Sri Lanka’ as the institutional vehicle to drive green economic policy changes, whilst the Council continues to focus on 17 SDGs.

d.Existing guarantees given by Multilateral agencies for some credit lines may not be available for fuel, diesel, petrol, but only for renewable energy sources. Therefore, if we continue to have diesel plants, sourcing foreign exchange without such credit lines, that becomes a serious issue, that’s why it is necessary to focus more on renewable energy.

e.Structuring mega projects have to be in line with international trends i.e.; Sustainable development goals, COP 26 Glasgow- ‘Climate change’ to attract the right investors for our projects. Indirect costs in delaying our mega projects. Colombo East Terminal (ECT), 300MW convertible power plants, Northern/Central Highway, Port access road etc. are examples resulting from delays. However, there should be a mechanism to ascertain whether the investments made in infrastructure projects are yielding desired, expected returns.

f.Drive against drugs & underworld operations, action against corrupt practices and improve public sector service efficiency. Maintain government fiscal deficit around 7% by increasing direct taxes and restructuring SOEs, thus further reducing the burden of high expenditure.

g. Focus on FDI led ‘export oriented’ growth strategy coupled with increase in domestic production, light industries, SMEs, ICT applications.i.e.; Grama Niladhari tabs etc. and a mechanism to reduce cost of living rise, provide relief packages, and paddy/rice value chain.

h.Within the framework of non- aligned movement, Sri Lanka could slowly shift our foreign relations towards India Japan and the US. This would enable FDIs and bi lateral funds to flow in from these countries including UAE, South Korea, Vietnam to attract funds and resolve US sanctions imposed through western banks. Even the IMF will facilitate structural adjustments and rating will improve.

Therefore, it is suggested the government to appoint an ‘Expert Council’ to look into these areas mandating them to recommend a short- term solution within a set of ‘medium term’ strategic plans for the next three -five years.



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Beyond traditional jobs: Why Sri Lanka needs to facilitate the gig economy

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Image courtesy Oxford University

by Kapila Chinthaka Premarathne
Head of the Department of Agricultural Systems and a Senior Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the Faculty of Agriculture,
Rajarata University of Sri Lanka

Beyond the Graduate Unemployment Number

Sri Lanka’s economic recovery has improved macroeconomic stability, but youth unemployment remains a significant labour-market concern. Around 43% of Sri Lankan youth aged 15–24 with postsecondary education are unemployed, the highest among the Asian economies compared in the IMF analysis, compared with about 36% in Bangladesh and 13.2% in Thailand. This reflects a problem of skills mismatches and the difficulty of connecting higher education with changing labour-market demand. The concern goes beyond unemployment itself. Sri Lanka has invested heavily in educating its younger population, yet the conventional labour market is not creating enough opportunities to convert these qualifications into income. Many young people possess degrees, technical knowledge and growing digital familiarity, but remain outside formal employment because suitable jobs may not exist in the right place, at the right time or under conditions compatible with their circumstances. This makes it necessary to think beyond traditional employment models and explore new ways of connecting Sri Lanka’s educated youth with economic opportunities.

This is where Sri Lanka needs to reconsider how it understands employment

Employment has traditionally been viewed through the employer–employee relationship, with qualifications leading to a formal job and regular salary. While this model remains important, digital platforms are creating new ways to generate income, allowing individuals to work for multiple clients across geographical boundaries without permanent employment. Sri Lanka therefore needs to look beyond simply creating conventional jobs and consider whether it is building the conditions for its educated population to participate in the growing global market for digital services.

The Opportunity of the Gig Economy

The gig economy extends far beyond ride-hailing and delivery services. Digital platforms increasingly connect skilled individuals with opportunities in software development, design, accounting, data analysis, digital marketing, translation, online education, research and consultancy. This is particularly relevant to Sri Lanka, where a highly educated population faces a relatively limited domestic market for specialised skills. Digital platforms can overcome geographical constraints by connecting Sri Lankan workers directly with international clients.

As highlighted in my previous LSE South Asia article on women and the gig economy, such work should not replace formal employment but can create additional income opportunities when supported by appropriate skills, digital infrastructure, training and institutional support. A skilled person in Anuradhapura, Jaffna, Batticaloa or Monaragala could potentially serve clients in London, Melbourne or Dubai without first relocating to Colombo. This makes the gig economy relevant not only to employment but also to Sri Lanka’s emerging digital services-export strategy.

A Digitally Familiar Generation

Sri Lanka’s younger generation is growing up with smartphones, social media, online learning, digital applications and digital financial services, giving them a level of digital familiarity that previous generations did not have. However, digital familiarity does not automatically translate into digital employability. The challenge is to transform everyday digital use into productive skills such as data analysis, artificial intelligence, software development, digital marketing, financial analysis and online professional services.

Sri Lanka therefore needs to move young people from being consumers of digital services to producers of digital value. Universities, vocational institutions and training providers can play an important role in converting existing digital familiarity into marketable skills that connect young people with both domestic and international opportunities. This is increasingly important as technological change and AI reshape labour markets and intensify the need for skills that match emerging forms of work.

The Gender Dimension

The gig economy may be particularly relevant to women, who often face barriers to conventional employment arising from childcare, eldercare, mobility, social expectations and rigid working arrangements. For mothers and women living outside major urban centres, fixed working hours and daily commuting can make formal employment difficult even when suitable jobs exist.

Digital gig work can provide greater flexibility, allowing women to undertake professional assignments from home or their communities and potentially serve international clients without relocating. As discussed in my earlier LSE South Asia article, this opportunity is most meaningful when supported by digital infrastructure, skills training, virtual work hubs, mentorship and appropriate institutional support. However, flexibility should expand women’s economic choices rather than simply add paid work to existing unpaid household responsibilities.

Pressure on Labour-Market Opportunity

The value of a job cannot be judged by salary alone, as commuting, working hours and household responsibilities can significantly affect its real economic value. Flexible digital work can potentially reduce some of these costs by allowing people to work from home or nearby digital hubs and participate in employment on a part-time or project basis. While gig work cannot solve all household pressures, a more flexible organisation of work can create additional employment opportunities while helping households manage their limited time and resources more effectively.

A Possible Third Option Between Unemployment and Migration

Sri Lanka’s migration and brain-drain concerns highlight the need to explore employment opportunities beyond the domestic labour market. While overseas migration will remain an important individual and economic choice, digital work can provide another pathway by allowing skilled Sri Lankans to serve international clients without physically leaving the country. Software developers, designers, analysts, researchers, translators and consultants can potentially earn from global markets while remaining in Sri Lanka. Digital gig work cannot eliminate migration or reverse brain drain, but it can create an additional option between domestic unemployment and physical migration—working for the world while remaining in Sri Lanka.

Recognising and Making Digital Work Reputable

A major institutional gap is that conventional systems are designed around salaried employment, while a freelancer may earn from multiple clients without a single employer or salary certificate. This can make legitimate digital workers difficult to recognise when they seek loans, leasing, insurance or business finance. Sri Lanka could address this through a voluntary digital-worker or independent-professional registration mechanism, providing a recognised economic identity based on qualifications, verified skills, platform activity and documented income, without creating unnecessary bureaucracy.

Such recognition should also make digital income bankable. Banks could assess verified platform earnings, bank transactions, contracts, invoices, tax records, savings and repayment history alongside conventional employment documents. A standardised digital income statement could further help workers demonstrate their financial capacity. The key shift is from asking “Who is your employer?” to asking “Can your income be verified and is it sufficiently stable?”. This would allow successful digital workers to build financial credibility and use their earnings to access credit, acquire assets and develop their own businesses.

Digital Payments Are Part of the Labour Market

Access to reliable international payment systems is essential if Sri Lankans are to participate effectively in the global digital economy. Recent developments in PayPal’s local banking arrangements, including its partnerships with Sampath Bank and Commercial Bank, indicate progress in this direction. However, the broader priority should be a regulated and efficient digital-payment ecosystem that allows workers to receive international earnings, transfer them to Sri Lankan bank accounts, document their income and meet relevant financial and tax requirements with minimal friction. International payment infrastructure is therefore not simply a technology issue; it is an essential component of Sri Lanka’s emerging services-export economy.

Building Infrastructure Outside Colombo

Digital familiarity alone is insufficient without reliable internet, electricity, computers, software and suitable working environments, particularly in rural and underserved areas. To ensure that the gig economy supports regional development rather than becoming another Colombo-centred opportunity, Sri Lanka could establish regional digital-work hubs through universities, vocational institutions, libraries and public-private partnerships. These hubs could provide connectivity, equipment, training, mentoring and assistance with platform registration and international payments. If graduates must migrate to Colombo simply to access such infrastructure, the geographical advantage of digital work is significantly reduced.

From Freelancer to Entrepreneur

Gig work should not be viewed as an end in itself. A person may begin with small online assignments, develop regular clients and professional credibility, and eventually establish a small digital enterprise. This creates a potential pathway from graduate to freelancer, professional service provider and entrepreneur, allowing individuals to create markets around their own skills rather than waiting for conventional vacancies. Universities can support this transition by teaching students not only subject knowledge but also portfolio development, market identification, client communication, digital platforms and contract management. A degree demonstrates educational attainment, while a professional portfolio demonstrates what a graduate can offer to the market.

Facilitation Must Be Matched by Protection

Promoting the gig economy without appropriate safeguards could simply transfer employment risks from institutions to individuals. Digital workers may face uncertain incomes, weak bargaining power and limited social protection. Sri Lanka should therefore facilitate digital work while also ensuring opportunities for independent workers to build savings, access insurance and participate in portable social-protection mechanisms. Flexibility should create greater economic choice without compromising long-term financial security, particularly for women.

A regional Example from India: Think Globally and act Locally

India provides a useful regional example of how the gig economy can be approached as a policy issue rather than simply as informal or temporary work. NITI Aayog has estimated the size and future employment potential of India’s gig and platform economy and has developed recommendations covering employment generation, skills, financial inclusion and social protection. More importantly, India has begun creating institutional mechanisms around these workers. Its e-Shram portal provides a national database of unorganised workers, including gig and platform workers, creating a recognised identity through which workers can potentially access employment, skills development and social-security services. India has also explored platform-led skills development through skill certificates, skill passports and on-the-job training, while NITI Aayog has proposed cash-flow-based lending models that could allow platform workers to demonstrate creditworthiness through their earnings rather than conventional employment or collateral.

Social protection has also entered the policy framework. India’s Code on Social Security, 2020 formally recognises gig and platform workers and provides a basis for schemes covering areas such as accident insurance, health, maternity, disability and old-age protection. India is still developing and refining these arrangements, and Sri Lanka need not replicate the Indian model.

However, the experience demonstrates an important policy lesson: the gig economy can be supported through a system that identifies workers, develops their skills, makes their income more visible to financial institutions and extends appropriate social protection. Sri Lanka could develop its own simpler framework suited to its smaller economy, beginning with recognising digital workers and building the institutional conditions that allow their skills and earnings to become part of the formal economy.

Rethinking Employment and the Next Opportunity

The 43 percent figure for educated young Sri Lankans should encourage a wider discussion about the changing nature of work. Sri Lanka will continue to need conventional employment through firms, industries, farms, professional organisations and public institutions, but the changing labour market also requires new opportunities to connect educated Sri Lankans with global digital markets. The gig economy can provide an additional pathway to increase female labour-force participation, reduce the pressure for migration and brain drain, and connect Sri Lankan skills with markets beyond geographical boundaries.

This does not require a complicated bureaucracy. It requires recognising legitimate digital workers, facilitating access to international platforms and payment systems, allowing verified digital income to support credit assessment, developing portable social protection, and strengthening digital infrastructure and skills beyond major urban centres. Better data on digital workers would also help policymakers develop evidence-based interventions.

The future of work is therefore not only about creating more jobs, but about creating more ways for Sri Lankans to work, earn and build livelihoods while continuing to live and contribute in Sri Lanka. The gig economy should be recognised as part of an emerging digital labour market and services-export economy, where workers can build professional identities, earn internationally, access finance and eventually develop their own enterprises.

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Are religions getting redundant in the modern world?

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by Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

We are living in an era of astonishingly rapid scientific advancement. From the time Apple launched the ‘iPhone’ in January 2007, the first targeting the mass market, smartphones have taken over the world, making them indispensable. According to the latest statistics, there are around 8.1 billion mobile phones with 7.4 billion active smartphones, for the world population of 8.25 billion. Except for a tiny minority of the very poor, most people have at least one smartphone.

We are now entering the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and smart robots. Recently, a ‘Chinese’ robot ran 100 metres faster than Usain Bolt! Though Alan Turing proposed the idea of ‘Thinking Machines’ way back in 1950, the real AI boom commenced with the release of the generative AI chatbot, ChatGPT, by OpenAI in November 2020. Number of technology firms in the US as well as in China have joined the race, China catching up very fast, quite unexpectedly. There is a frenzy at the moment, raising expectations, as the imminent floating of these companies is likely to value the two leaders, OpenAI and Anthropic, trillion dollars each!

However, trouble is brewing in the AI field. On top of the concerns raised by environmentalists regarding the huge power drain by AI centres, there are recent reports of some AI models hacking independently into other systems, without human input. Worse still, a senior researcher at Anthropic, who has previously worked for OpenAI as well, resigned in early September on ethical grounds stating that the way the two companies are fast-tracking AI poses an existential threat to humanity. Surprisingly, instead of a rebuttal the head of Anthropic supported his view, soon joined by three more heads of leading AI developers. Whilst they agreed on slowing progress, President Trump has claimed that slowing is totally unnecessary as long as a super intelligent President like himself is at the helm! There does not seem to be an end to Trump’s grandiosity! He was joined by Tony Blair. In contrast, King Charles held a summit with representatives of all AI developers to find a way AI could be developed without a threat to humanity. That is how wise leaders act!

Less sophisticated AI tools are already in widespread use and installed in computers, laptops and smartphones. Some of us are using these automatically. However, the more advanced AI tools like ChatGPT can change even reality. For instance, AI can generate videos hardly distinguishable from real ones. What you enjoy watching on YouTube may be just the creations of AI! Some people use AI to write articles; only a few of them admit that they do so. Very soon we may be reading stories AI creates and listening to music, courtesy of AI. Technology seems to be fast becoming the new religion? Or, will the existential threat move us more towards religion?

Religion, perhaps, is as old as humanity itself; various belief systems evolving and disappearing coupled with the fortunes of the associated civilizations. Just like AI, religion is also a creation of the human mind which our ancestors did to explain many phenomena which appeared, at that time, to be supernatural. Starting with Animism, perceiving the divine in the natural world around, humans went on to Polytheism, believing in many gods like in Hinduism, culminating in the concept of Monotheism.

World’s oldest religion, Hinduism, still in wide practice, is devoid of a founder or a single text. The earliest scriptures, Rigveda, is considered to be around 3,500 years old but archaeologists have discovered symbols of importance to Hinduism as far back as 7,000 BCE. Though it is considered to be Polytheistic, it can be argued that it was the precursor of Monotheism, the concept of a creator God, as Brahma was the creator in the triad, Trimurti, Vishnu being the preserver and Shiva being the destroyer. It seems to be a sensible balancing act; create, destroy and repair with improvements.

It is pretty obvious that as science expands, the importance of religion contracts but it is hardly likely religions would be totally redundant. We have no choice as to which family we are born to and that invariably determines what your religion would be, if any. Religion is the first brainwashing a child encounters and most remain in the same faith, often trying to defend even the indefensible, but some change through conviction or conversion due to one of many reasons. Further, religious rituals have social values and religious practices often come to one’s solace at times of distress. Therefore, many will continue with the religion they were born to but with declining enthusiasm, at times. However, some religions seem to be facing problems like falling attendances in places of worship. With education and tech savviness expanding, one would expect the youth to be less enthusiastic about religion but the converse is true in some religions, some youth becoming very militant unfortunately.

While most religions make you subservient to a supernatural power, the Buddha was wise and bold enough to remove those shackles. He proclaimed that one’s destiny is in one’s own hands. However, many Buddhists appear to attach greater significance to rituals than to practising the Dhamma.

Buddhism as a religion may become less relevant as the frontiers of science expands but the Buddha Dhamma, especially Abhidhamma and Vipassana, would receive increasing recognition, the Buddha remaining an authority on consciousness and the mind.

Scientific progress should be for the betterment of society but AI developers are taking huge risks, taking massive loans threatening the world economy, for one aim: profit! Some do not seem to care even if their actions pose an existential threat to humanity.

Perhaps, if the Four Sublime Attitudes (Sathara Brahma Vihara) expounded by the Buddha; loving kindness (Metta), compassion (Karuna), empathetic joy (Muditha) and equanimity (Upekkha) are adopted as universal values, the world would become a safer place to live in, with or without AI.

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‘The Bullet that Missed’

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 21

by Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha

Another book that is part of a series, today—one that is fun without the brooding concentration on criminality in different forms that marks the Rebus novels. This one about the Thursday Murder Club, is a romp as its two predecessors were interspersed with deaths and what might be deaths.

The Bullet that Missed

begins with a meeting with the presenter of ‘South East Tonight’, a programme about the area, in which Coopers Chase is situated. The meeting is held because the club has decided to look into the murder of the producer’s assistant, Bethany Waites, whose car was found at the bottom of a cliff ten years ago. There was blood in it, but the body was never found.

Or, rather, the book begins with an account of Bethany Waites deciding, on the night she vanished, to meet someone in connection with a case of massive fraud that she had been investigating, after sending the producer, Mike Waghorn, a message that she had found new evidence though he had no idea what it was. The night she died, she sent him another message: “I don’t say this often enough, but thank you.”

CCTV cameras showed her leaving her place, but then the vehicle vanished, before being sighted near the cliff, with two people in it. Investigation of the fraud had led to the imprisonment of a woman, Heather Garbutt, though it proved impossible to pin anything on Jack Mason, the mastermind for whom she had worked.

The Club conducts investigations on several fronts, including through Connie Johnson, the drug dealer they had helped imprison in the earlier book. The psychiatrist Ibrahim, the most respectable member of the Club, interviews her in an attempt to get her to find out more from Heather, who is in the same prison as she. They also investigate the CCTV record of the night Bethany vanished, and deduce that she went to an apartment block and exited from its other side, and that is why she was not seen leaving the town. But some time had elapsed between her being seen in the town and then on the cliff.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth has been kidnapped, along with her husband, and taken to a house in Staffordshire, where she is told by a man called the Viking that she must kill a former KGB agent now in London, who has a profitable career in money laundering. The Viking tells her he will inform Viktor that she was responsible for stealing the diamonds, the story of which is told in the previous Murder Club Mystery, and Viktor will then kill her.

Elizabeth, who has an affair with Viktor, knows he will not kill her, but when the Viking says he will also send Viktor a picture of Joyce, she decides she must act, and goes to see Viktor, and fires when she gets him in the bathroom. But, of course, she fired into the ceiling, and Viktor is then taken to Coopers Chase, to stay with Joyce until they have dealt with the Viking. And Viktor then enjoys the camaraderie of the retirement home so much that he wonders whether he too should settle there.

Elizabeth does trace the Viking, or rather her husband does, for he has noticed rare books on the shelves in his library, and an antiquarian book dealer friend managed to find out who bought them. But before they could confront him, he comes to Coopers Chase, for he has seen the bullet hole in the bathroom of Viktor’s flat and realized he was fooled.

But he cannot bring himself to kill Joyce straight away, and she knocks him out with a drug in a cup of tea. When he meets Viktor, they both decide to fall in with the plans of the Club.

Before this, Heather has been found dead in her cell, with a note saying that ‘they’ were going to kill her, and only Connie could help. Before that she had admitted that she was frightened to name the man behind the fraud. Jack Mason said the same, after Ron had won his confidence. The Club had deduced by then that the body was buried in the garden of Heather’s house which Jack had bought, after she had been jailed, and digging reveals a gun and money, but no body. Jack tells them that the mastermind had said that Bethany was buried with a bullet with his DNA on it.

The Club is now working with the Chief Constable of Kent, Andrew Everton, who writes thrillers himself, but in the form of e-books. He is in search of a publisher, and delighted when Mike Waghorn puts him on his programme, as is Donna, who is substituted at the last minute for Chris.

The Club finds out whom Bethany visited in the apartment block—Mike’s assistant Pauline, who tells them later what she and Bethany had been doing. But this is after the man behind the fraud has been unmasked up in the house in Staffordshire, where he was trying to hire the Viking and Viktor to find the money that he had stashed away, using accounts that he could no longer trace. He has also confessed to murdering Bethany, hoping this will persuade the two money launderers to help him, but it turns out that he did not do this. Nor did he kill Heather, the incriminating note having been placed in her room by Connie, who decided that Heather’s suicide should be treated as murder so that the person who had been blackmailing her should be found out.

It was Jack Mason’s murder that was brought home to the crook. It turns out that Bethany, her appearance altered by Pauline, has vanished, to a new life in Dubai, where she has taken control of the missing millions. She has gone there because the threat, she received through the bullet she was looking at in the preamble, was to Mike and she wanted him out of danger.

Yet another whimsical conclusion to a whimsical book with enough loose ends left hanging for another sequel.

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