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Allies of US in the Gulf bear brunt of Iran attacks

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Cities in the Gulf states, like Abu Dhabi pictured here, were not built to withstand attacks from drones and ballistic missiles [BBC]

In the clear blue skies above Abu Dhabi, white contrails streak high above the sand-coloured villas and well-watered gardens.

These are no incoming Dreamliners or Airbuses bringing in the next manifest of tourists and guest workers. They are incoming ballistic missiles, launched by the Emirates’ giant neighbour just across the Gulf: Iran.

As of Sunday afternoon, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) defence ministry said it had so far “dealt with” 165 incoming ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 541 Iranian drones.

In Bahrain, a friend alerted me on Sunday morning that the airport was under attack after having a sleepless night.

“Woken by huge bangs and wailing siren,” he texted. “I think maybe around 20 booms and bangs. At least two hits”.

These are not familiar scenes in this region, but since this conflict began on Saturday morning, Iran appears to have expanded its target set from just hitting military targets, like the US Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, to airports and other civilian sites.

Now luxury hotels and shopping malls, high-rise apartment blocks, state-of-the-art airport departure terminals are getting sporadically hit as gaps appear in the Arab states’ air defences in the Gulf.

These places were never built with the prospect in mind that they would one day come under attack from drones and ballistic missiles.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, has denied targeting his country’s neighbours, telling Al Jazeera: “We are not attacking our neighbours in the Persian Gulf countries, we are targeting the presence of the US in these countries. Neighbours should direct their grievances to the decision-makers of this war”.

Some of the damage to civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states is accidental – resulting from debris falling from intercepted missiles.

But not all.

The number of attacks on airports in Bahrain and the UAE point to more than coincidence.

Iran always made it clear in advance that, if it was attacked, it would retaliate at any country it considered to be complicit in that attack.

The Gulf states went to some lengths to show Iran they were not part, in their eyes, of this US-Israeli attack.

Yet essentially they have been punished for being long-term military partners of Washington’s.

Before the Islamic Revolution, in the days of the shah, Iran was known as “the policeman of the Gulf”.

Since the revolution, it has always tried to convince its neighbours that it should resume that role, “taking charge of security” in what it calls Khaleej-e-Fars, the Persian Gulf (Arabs call it the Arabian Gulf).

Iranian leaders have tried, unsuccessfully, to persuade the Arab states in the Gulf to expel the US Navy and adopt them as their guardians instead.

But for rulers of the Gulf states – conservative, dynastic monarchies for whom the revolutionary zeal of the Islamic Republic is anathema – a line has been crossed here.

It is hard to see how they can ever have anything approaching normal relations again with the current Iranian leadership, that is, if it survives this war.

Saudi Arabia and Oman, two countries that have long hosted US and Western military forces, have both escaped a lot more lightly than the other four Gulf Arab states.

Oman, which remains on good terms with the Islamic Republic and was mediating the nuclear talks between the US and Iran, suffered a drone strike on its commercial port of Duqm, down on the Arabian Sea coast.

The Saudi capital Riyadh appears to have been targeted on Saturday, prompting an angry statement from its government.

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its rejection and condemnation in the strongest terms of the blatant and cowardly Iranian attacks that targeted the Riyadh Region and the Eastern Province, which were successfully intercepted. These attacks cannot be justified under any pretext,” the statement said.

This is not the first time Iran has attacked its Arab neighbours in the Gulf, either directly or indirectly, but never quite on this scale.

In 2019, an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq launched a volley of drones at Saudi Aramco’s petrochemical facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, temporarily knocking out half of its daily export capacity.

Last June, Iran fired ballistic missiles at the al-Udaid airbase in Qatar but this was seen as a performative response to America’s Operation Midnight Hammer air raid that destroyed Iran’s nuclear sites at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo, and Tehran quietly gave advance warning.

Bahrain, which has a large, sometimes restive Shia population, has long accused Iran of funding, training and arming insurgents in its country.

All of this, though, pales compared to the situation the Arab states of the Gulf are now experiencing.

For President Trump, for Israel, for many governments in the Middle East, and of course for many Iranians themselves the best result now would be a swift end to the regime of the Islamic Republic followed by a smooth transition to democracy and a world where Iran can enjoy normal relations with the rest of the world.

That, though, is far from certain.

A race is currently under way by the US and Israel to try to destroy Iran’s ability to keep launching these missiles and drones before they can fire them.

For Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC, the dilemma is whether to surge an attack on a major target like a US warship in the hopes of overcoming its defences, or hold back much of its concealed arsenal in the hopes of outlasting President Trump’s patience.

Iran also knows that while it has a finite number of missiles and drones, so, too, are its adversaries constrained by their number of remaining air defences.

If or when those run out before Iran runs out of missiles, drones or launchers then life for those on the ground in the Gulf could be about to get even more alarming.

Reuters Queues at Delhi airport amid cancellations and delays.
Flights that would have gone over the affected region have been diverted, causing delays [BBC]

The balance of power is heavily in favour of the US and Israel.  These are two of the world’s most powerful and technologically advanced militaries in the world.

There are two US carrier strike groups in the region with over 200 warplanes while Iran, under sweeping sanctions for years, has no air force to speak of.

Both Israel and the US enjoy complete air superiority.

But Tehran still has some things on its side.

The regime, although weakened and unpopular with much of its population, only has to survive to proclaim itself the long-term winner in this conflict.

The Islamic Republic, with its cult of martyrdom, can take a lot more pain than the US can and the longer this conflict goes on the keener President Trump will be to find an off-ramp.

Will the US and Iran return to talks?

If the Iranian regime collapses, that will not be necessary.

But if the regime survives, and it may well, then Washington’s triple demands of Tehran will come back into focus, namely: a curb on Iran’s suspect nuclear programme, including a return to inspections; an end to Iran’s ballistic missile programme; and an end to Iran’s support for proxy militias around the region, such as the Hezbullah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

Oman says real progress was being made in talks in Geneva last month on the nuclear file.

But Iran ruled out discussing the other two issues – leading Donald Trump to say he was “not happy with the way the talks are going”.

It is possible that back channel contacts could well produce a ceasefire, followed by a return to talks.

But if the two sides’ bargaining positions have not moved then military action could well resume.

So this conflict has yet to run its course.

[BBC]



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Sri Lanka’s World Cup winning team conduct coaching session in KL

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(Pics by Rex Clementine's Fb page)

On day two of Sri Lanka’s World Cup winning cricket team’s tour of Malaysia, they conducted a coaching session for children at the Royal Selangor ground in Kuala Lampur.

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Marsh onslaught, Akash three-for dent Chennai Super King’s playoffs chances

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Mitchell Marsh smashed 56 runs on his own in the powerplay [BCCI]

Mitchell Marsh’s boundary-laden 90 off 38 balls dented Chennai Super Kings’  playoffs chances and gave the Lucknow crowd something to cheer about. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) dropped from fifth to sixth after the result, with Rajasthan Royals (RR) leapfrogging them on net run-rate.

In pursuit of 188 on a tricky surface, Marsh flew out of the blocks, smashing 56 of the 86 runs Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) had hit in the powerplay. At the halfway mark of the game, ESPNcricinfo’s forecaster had pegged LSG’s win probability at 39.49%. It zoomed up to 91.24% after Marsh’s unfettered powerplay assault. Marsh fell ten short of a century, but Nicholas Pooran increased the count to 100% and sealed LSG’s fourth win this season.

They won by seven wickets with 20 balls to spare, but it still wasn’t enough to drag them up from the foot of the points table.

Akash Singh emerged from the sidelines for his first game of the season and produced career-best IPL figures of 4-0-26-3, against his former team. While Mohammed Shami explored the full length and conceded three fours to Sanju Samson in the first over, Akash banged it away on a hard length on a bouncy, red-soil Ekana pitch. He cramped all of Ruturaj Gaikwad, Samson and Urvil Patel and celebrated every wicket by pulling out a note from his pocket, which read: “#Akki on fire – Akash knows how to take wickets in a T20 game”

Only four of Akash’s 18 balls in the powerplay were fuller than a good length, according to ESPNcricinfo’s logs. His impeccable lengths were central to LSG restricting CSK to 37 for 2 in six overs. Akash bowled four overs on the trot and proved his point.

CSK’s 36 for 2 became 52 for 3 when Urvil holed out, but rookie Kartik Sharma repaired the innings along with Dewald Brevis, who contributed 25 off 16 balls. When left-arm fingerspinner Shahbaz Ahmed dragged one marginally short, Kartik picked up the length in a flash and swatted a six over midwicket in the ninth over. While Kartik’s back-foot play was Ambati Rayudu-esque, some of his front-foot shots and off-side range were reminiscent of Samson.

All told, Kartik took Shahbaz for 30 off 15 balls before the spinner had him caught at long-on in the 16th over. Kartik showed that he could also cut it against extreme pace as well when he backed away against Mayank Yadav and scythed a 144kph delivery to the right of point for four.

Kartik reached his half-century off 35 balls and hushed Ekana with his finger-on-the-lip celebration. When he was looking good for more, he fell for 71 off 42 balls.

Shivam Dube managed just one boundary off his first 11 balls, but went 6,4,4,6 off his last four balls to finish with an unbeaten 32 off 16 balls. Prashant Veer made a more sedate 13 not out off ten balls. With LSG incurring a penalty for slow over rate in the last over of the innings – they had just four men outside the circle – Prince Yadav cracked under pressure and leaked 23 runs.

Marsh set the tempo for the chase when he walked down the track to Mukesh Choudhary and picked him for four. Mukesh ended up conceding 15 runs in his first over and was taken out of the attack.

At the start of the third over, Marsh charged at Anshul Kamboj, manufactured swinging room and cracked him through the covers. It threw Kamboj off his signature hard length and he kept digging it shorter without having enough pace to trouble Marsh. In the penultimate over of the powerplay, Marsh lined Kamboj up for four sixes and a four. Marsh didn’t spare his Australia compatriot Spencer Johnson, who was on CSK debut, either, bashing him for three fours and a six in the sixth over.

In the absence of Jamie Overton, whose IPL has been cut short by injury, CSK lacked a middle-overs enforcer. They tried Gurjapneet Singh, but Marsh advanced at him too and launched him over the covers. Josh Inglis was just content to ride in Marsh’s slipstream.

Soon after Johnson knocked Abdul Samad over for seven off three balls, but Pooran rushed LSG home with four successive sixes off Kamboj, leaving CSK’s best bowler this season nursing figures of 2.4-0-63-0.

Brief scores:
Lucknow Super Giants 188 for 3 in 16.4 overs (Mitchell Marsh 90, Josh Inglis 36, Nicholas Pooran 32*, Mukul Choudhary 13*; Mukesh Choudhary 1-24, Spencer Johnson 1-39) beat Chennai Super Kings 187 for 5 in 20 overs (Sanju Samson 20, Rutraj Gaikwad 13, Kartik Sharma 71, Dewald Brevis 25, Shivam Dube 32*, Prashant Veer 13*; Mohammed Shami 1-41, Akash Singh 3-26, Shahbaz Ahmed 1-45) by seven wickets

[Cricinfo]

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ICC suspends funding to Cricket Canada over governance-related issues

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Cricket Canada has also faced administrative challenges over the last year [Cricinfo]

The ICC has suspended funding to Cricket Canada over governance-related issues. Cricket Canada was informed earlier this week by the global governing body and faces a freeze in the funding it receives for the next six months.

ESPNcricinfo understands the funding suspension will not impact any cricket activities, including high performance programmes. But it will be a significant blow to Cricket Canada, who, as an Associate Member, rely heavily on ICC distributions. Its financial statement for the year-ending 2024 showed that income from the ICC made up 63% of the board’s total income (CAD$3.6 million out of a total revenue of CAD$5.7 million).

The details around the governance failures are not yet known, though the fifth estate in Canada, an investigative documentary programme, has reported “breaches of ICC policies, including concerns over Cricket Canada’s governance and lack of financial oversight.”

Cricket Canada has gone through a period of turmoil on and off the field recently. Canada’s match against New Zealand at the recent T20 World Cup is the subject of a probe by the ICC’s anti-corruption and integrity unit.

Another ACU investigation is underway, stemming from a recording of a telephone call involving then Canada coach Khuram Chohan,  in which he claimed that senior (now former) Cricket Canada board members put pressure on him to select certain players to the national side. The audio was leaked last year and also contains claims of attempts to corrupt matches.

Last month, in a statement to ESPNcricinfo on the corruption investigation, Andrew Ephgrave, the ICC’s interim anti-integrity unit head had said: “Governance matters in relation to ICC Members are considered by the ICC, where they fall under its jurisdiction, in accordance with the ICC’s standard constitutional processes.”

Cricket Canada has also faced administrative challenges over the last year, most notably in the appointment and subsequent removal of former CEO Salman Khan. His appointment had attracted ICC attention, for failing to disclose prior criminal charges and he has been charged with theft and fraud by Calgary Police. Salman has denied the claims. In April, Arvinder Khosa was made the interim board president, replacing Amjad Bajwa.

The ICC’s funding decision came immediately after Cricket Canada’s annual general meeting last weekend (May 9-10), in which the board announced reforms it said were part of its “ongoing governance transformation initiative”. It also elected a new nine-person board of directors, with Khosa elected president, after his interim stint.

The ICC did not comment on the development and ESPNcricinfo has approached Cricket Canada for comment. In a statement to the fifth estate, the board’s media manager Jimmy Sharma said: “The current Board has inherited these issues and is fully committed to resolving all governance, compliance, and financial control deficiencies.”

[Cricinfo]

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