Business
ADB urges SL to accelerate recovery with fiscal discipline and global trade shifts
Recommends prudent policy choices and regional collaboration
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has highlighted Sri Lanka’s economic recovery as exceeding initial expectations in its Asian Development Outlook April 2025 report, but cautioned that the rebound remains fragile, with significant risks posed by global trade tensions, fiscal pressures, and unresolved debt vulnerabilities.
The following are some key highlights from the report:
Sri Lanka’s economy is projected to grow at a moderate pace in 2025–2026, driven by broad-based improvements. However, domestic demand is expected to stay sluggish, reflecting lingering challenges from the country’s recent economic crisis. While fiscal consolidation efforts remain on track bolstered by stronger-than-anticipated revenue. With that said, however, the ADB warned that under-execution of capital spending or a loss of reform momentum could derail progress.

Takafumi Kadono, ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka, brings profound expertise in both macro and microeconomic dynamics, steering transformative development support tailored to Sri Lanka’s evolving needs
After a period of deflation, Sri Lanka’s inflation is forecast to rise in 2025 due to higher electricity tariffs, relaxed import restrictions, wage hikes, and exchange rate depreciation. The government’s commitment to fiscal discipline faces pressure from potential expenditure increases, even as external debt interest payments resume, pushing the current account into deficit.
The ADB’s analysis of new US tariffs, identifies Sri Lanka as vulnerable to trade disruptions. Key risks include:
Sri Lankan exporters, particularly in sectors with thin profit margins, face order cancellations and profit losses.
Competitors like India, Malaysia, and Mexico—benefiting from lower US tariffs—could attract investment away from Sri Lanka.
Full implementation of tariffs could slash GDP growth by depressing exports, manufacturing, and investor confidence, while raising unemployment and fiscal strains.
To mitigate risks, the ADB urges Sri Lanka to diversify export markets and products. Opportunities include expanding into niche EU markets and Asian regional partners, as well as boosting high-value sectors like electronics. Strengthening regional cooperation and accelerating structural reforms could enhance resilience.
Despite progress under its IMF program, Sri Lanka’s debt burden remains “high,” requiring sustained reforms to stabilise public finances. The ADB emphasised that fiscal reversals or delays in restructuring could undermine macroeconomic stability.
While South Asia remains the fastest growing subregion fueled by India’s robust domestic demand, Sri Lanka’s trajectory is distinct, marked by post-crisis recovery challenges. Developing Asia’s overall growth is moderating due to US-China trade tensions and China’s property sector woes, further complicating Sri Lanka’s external environment.
“Sri Lanka’s recovery is commendable but incomplete,” the report states. “Accelerating reforms, safeguarding fiscal discipline, and diversifying trade partnerships are critical to navigating global headwinds and ensuring long-term stability.”
As Sri Lanka balances optimism with fragility, the ADB’s outlook underscores the urgency of maintaining reform momentum while preparing for escalating external risks. The path to sustained recovery, concludes, hinges on prudent policy choices and regional collaboration.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
HNB Life reports 54% surge in gross written premium for Q1 2026
HNB Life PLC has delivered a robust performance in the first quarter of 2026, recording a 54% year-on-year increase in Gross Written Premium (GWP) to Rs. 7.01 billion, up from Rs. 4.55 billion in Q1 2025. Net Written Premium rose by a matching 54% to Rs. 6.69 billion, reflecting strong new business generation and policy persistency.
Total net income grew 39% to Rs. 8.69 billion, supported by solid underwriting and steady investment income, including Rs. 2.05 billion from interest and dividends. The company’s balance sheet remains resilient, with total assets reaching Rs. 71.38 billion and the Life Insurance Fund expanding to Rs. 52.55 billion.
Profit after tax stood at Rs. 0.21 billion, though profitability was tempered by a low-interest rate environment and fair value fluctuations in the equity portfolio. No surplus transfer from the Life Insurance Fund has been made yet, as this typically follows year-end valuation.
Chairman Stuart Chapman attributed the momentum to the company’s recent rebranding and its strategic alignment with the Hatton National Bank Group. CEO Lasitha Wimalaratne emphasized disciplined execution, digital enablement, and enhanced distribution as key drivers.
HNB Life, rated ‘A’ (lka) by Fitch, marks 25 years as one of Sri Lanka’s fastest-growing life insurers, operating 79 branches nationwide. The company remains well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth.
Business
ADB Samarkand spirit demands immediate radical shift in Sri Lanka national mindset
The atmosphere in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, during the 59th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was nothing short of electric. Walking through the Silk Road Samarkand complex – a venue steeped in the history of ancient global trade – one could easily feel the weight of past legacies. “More pressing, however, was the palpable urgency of the future, as the halls of the Congress Center resonated with strategic discussions on ‘Asia’s Second Growth Leap.'” The global narrative was unmistakable: the talk of post-crisis recovery was no longer relevant. For Sri Lanka, the echoing message from Samarkand was both a warning and an invitation: the transition from an aid-recipient mindset to a competitive global partner is no longer a choice. It is our only survival mechanism.
While delegates from across the region shared aggressive blueprints for economic acceleration, the absence of Sri Lankan policymakers was a stark reality. Other Asian nations did not speak of mere “potential”; they spoke of velocity.
In Samarkand, the ancient gateway of the Silk Road, the irony was impossible to ignore. As regional leaders debated the deployment of an Interconnected Pan-Asia Grid to revolutionise energy integration, discussed how deep capital markets must drive development, and outlined strategies to scale up investments from critical minerals to advanced manufacturing value chains, a troubling realisation set in. The world is moving at lightning speed on digital highways for inclusive growth, yet Sri Lanka remains haunted by the ghost of political and bureaucratic “dilly-dallying.”
The true “Samarkand Spirit” demands an immediate, radical shift in our national mindset. Sri Lanka must aggressively shed its “crisis” label. The high-level discourse in Uzbekistan focused entirely on how emerging economies can stop begging for economic concessions and start delivering regional solutions.
Whether the focus was on maximising opportunities within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) or financing large-scale offshore wind projects, the core directive for our nation remained constant: Sri Lanka must stop looking for a hand-out and start building an economic bridge.
The ADB has laid out the catalytic pathway for the Asia-Pacific’s second growth phase. The infrastructure, the capital, and the frameworks are ready. The burning question for Sri Lanka’s policymakers is simple: Are we ready to execute, or are we content with stagnation?
Leaving Uzbekistan, the takeaway for our leadership is vivid and uncompromising. Decisive action is the sole currency of the new Asian century.
To bridge the gap between the historic Silk Road and the strategic Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka must:
Accelerate Digitisation: Swiftly overhaul bureaucratic frameworks to create a seamless, trusted digital economy.
Integrate Energy Grid Connectivity: Boldly plug into the regional grid networks discussed at the summit to resolve long-term energy insecurity.
Plug into Global Supply Chains: Pivot aggressively toward high-value manufacturing and regional trade agreements.
The 59th ADB Annual Meeting proved that the international community is ready to partner with a competitive, forward-thinking Sri Lanka. We possess the geographic location and the inherent talent. Now, post-Samarkand, we have the definitive roadmap.
The “Second Leap” of the Asia-Pacific region is already in motion. The ultimate test for Sri Lanka’s policymakers is whether they will lead the country into this dynamic new era or leave us observing fruitlessly from the sidelines.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
First drop in new business in three years: The hidden warning in Sri Lanka’s April PMI
Here is the point that carries more weight than the headline PMI figures released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. While much of April’s contraction in manufacturing (42.6) and services (46.7) was dismissed as seasonal — the Sinhala and Tamil New Year holidays, fewer working days, fading festive demand — the rupture in new business flows tells a different, more troubling tale.
April 2026 marked the first month since April 2023 that services sector new business contracted. Not a slowdown. Not a plateau. An outright decline. Nor was it narrow in scope. The deterioration cut across transportation of goods, insurance, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation, food and beverage service activities.
The Island Financial Review asked an independent analyst for his take. Here is what he said.
“These are not fringe sub-sectors; they are the arteries of Sri Lanka’s domestic economy. Why does this matter beyond the seasonal logic? Because new business is a leading indicator. What falls today in new orders will show up tomorrow in production, employment and stock purchases. April’s drop in new business — the first in three full years — suggests that May’s anticipated recovery may be shallower than hoped, and that a return above the neutral 50 PMI threshold before June is unlikely unless geopolitical tensions ease sharply.”
“Compounding the concern, the decline in new business was not an isolated Sri Lankan phenomenon. It arrived alongside two external shocks: rising energy prices, which hammered transport and personal services, and the ongoing Middle East conflict, which lengthened supplier delivery times and added logistical friction.”
“To be sure, expectations over the next three months remain positive. Firms hope for a stabilisation following the end of the war. But the first decline in new business in three years is a quiet alarm. Seasonal patterns explain April’s production dip. They do not explain why customers stopped placing new orders. For Sri Lanka’s policymakers and business leaders, that is the story to watch in May,” he said.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
-
News6 days agoEx-SriLankan CEO’s death: Controversy surrounds execution of bail bond
-
Features2 days agoSri Lankan Airlines Airbus Scandal and the Death of Kapila Chandrasena and my Brother Rajeewa
-
Features7 days agoHigh Stakes in Pursuing corruption cases
-
Features7 days agoWhen University systems fail:Supreme Court’s landmark intervention in sexual harassment case
-
News3 days agoLanka’s eligibility to draw next IMF tranche of USD 700 mn hinges on ‘restoration of cost-recovery pricing for electricity and fuel’
-
Midweek Review6 days agoA victory that can never be forgotten
-
News2 days agoKapila Chandrasena case: GN phone records under court scrutiny
-
Features4 days agoMysterious Death of United Nations Secretary General Hammarskjöld
