Opinion
The Peril of going to the IMF: Is there an alternative?
by Chandre Dharmawardana,
chandre.dharma@yahoo.ca.
The forex crisis had forced the government to jettison its initial set of economic managers of the Central bank who looked for home-grown solutions and opposed dealing with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The President re-instated a set of managers whose ideas were more orthodox and aligned with the neo-liberal bankers of the West. This “about turn” by Gotabaya Rajapaksa fitted perfectly with the views of his successor Mr. Wickremasinghe.
JRJ’s “import and sell” consumer economy
Gavin Karunaratne, a retired civil servant of the 1950-1970s era, has published a new booklet entitled “How the IMF’s structural adjustments destroyed Sri Lanka” (Godage Publishers) where he claims that today’s ills are a direct consequence of JR Jayawardena’s IMF-inspired policies. JRJ converted Sri Lanka’s “produce locally to consume and sell” economy of the Sirimavo era, to a post-1977 “import and sell” consumer economy. In 1975, Lanka’s foreign debt was negligible. According to Karunaratne, “the foreign debt of the country kept mounting throughout the rule of President Jayawardena, …, reaching to special drawing rights (SDR) of six billion by the end of 1994”. Here we may quote Maliyadde (The Island: 23/06/2013) that “at the end of 1976 the foreign debt of Sri Lanka was only $ 75 million, (and that) the external debt liability had increased by more than 500 times in 35 years, with a 2020 foreign debt of around $ 56 billion”. So these claims of Gavin Karunaratne are consistent with mainstream views. Unfortunately, the book has no illustrations, maps or graphs.
Sri Lanka’s Political and Forex crisis
Sri Lanka is facing a flood of economic and political turmoil that began as a minor Cabinet tussle against the then Finance Minister Bail Rajapaksa’s policies and “midnight deals”. However, it coincided with a farmers’ protest, triggered by collapsed agricultural incomes. A knee-jerk 100% ban on agrochemicals, imposed in 2021, by Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was imposed in the name of environmental policies, designed to create a “toxin-free” Sri Lanka, long supported by Champika Ranawaka, Venerable Ratana, advocates of traditional agriculture, and by the Viyath Maga – the “learned” advisory group of President Gotabaya. The JVP (Marxist) leaders, as well as many Western-funded “green” NGOs, welcomed it. Gotabaya boasted of it at the Climate summit and earned kudos from Prince Charles! The hidden reason for the leap into eco-extremism was the lack of foreign exchange even to pay for the import of fertilisers, needed for Tea, Rubber and other export crops, and for the paddy crop that feeds the people. That the investment in agrochemicals paid itself by almost a factor of five in export earnings was ignored by the short-sighted presidential advisors, dazzled by their “green” myths. Sri Lanka had relied on tourism, inward-remittances from expatriate workers, as well as its exports to service its foreign debts, and also to pay for its imports of fuel, food and pharmaceuticals. Of course, the arrival of the Pandemic, and the Ukraine war, created collapse. The government had to declare bankruptcy and look to foreign help, and the IMF.
Responsibility for “economic mismanagement”?
Unlike the economy of a large country, with its own economy, that of Sri Lanka is almost a random function of a multitude of market forces, beyond predictability, even though fully determined by such forces. Such systems are well recognized in modern chaos theory. Meanwhile, one is amazed to hear of a lawsuit seeking action against 39 persons, allegedly responsible for “mismanagement” of the country’s economy! Among the 39 are included Ranil Wickremasinghe, Mahinda Rajapaksa, former Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, former Secretary to the President P.B. Jayasundara, former Central Bank Governors Ajith Nivard Cabral and Prof. W.D. Laxman. etc.! Clearly, the petitioners seem to believe that economics is like engineering or medicine where professionals diagnose a problem unequivocally and provide remedies with a high degree of consensus. In such situations, failure to take correct steps would indeed be professional negligence. But this is NOT so for economics.
The litigants should heed Bernard Shaw’s comment that “ten economists seeking an exit from the same crisis will point in twelve different directions”! The litigant academics should revisit Friedrich von Hayek’s Nobel Prize address about the questionability of economic “knowledge”? Agricultural science is much closer to being a science capable of predicting the harvests to be expected, and so, shouldn’t the litigants take the architects of the toxin-free programme to court more meaningfully?
The assumption that major economic doctrines are independent of political ideology is clearly false. Even the attitude to foreign debt, and how it is discussed are coloured by political ideology. Western media claim that Sri Lanka has been caught in a “Chinese debt trap”. In reality, the percentage shares of the debt are: international capital-market borrowing 47%, Asian Development Bank 13%, China 10%, Japan 10%, World Bank 9%, India 2%, and others 9%. A significant share of the debt was created by orthodox economists during the “Yahapalanaya” era of the Sirisena-Wickremasinghe government.
Gavin Karunaratne, in his book, discusses how the JRJ government dismantled local industries and allowed the “private sector,” or the foreign investor, to do whatever they pleased. He notes that the inflow and outflow of Forex is not known to the government as private banks have wide liberties in managing their Forex, while the Central Bank mainly controlled domestic funds and domestic money supply.
The way out of the impasse
Given the present Forex crisis, the government cannot even run its day to day affairs, without a loan. Karunaratne gives us a brief account of the negative effects of JRJ’s free-market policies on a fledgling developing economy of a very small country. He does not tell us how to obtain the immediately needed Forex, or what to do with the accumulated debt. His long-range solution is largely to return to the model of local production that was laboriously built up under the Sirimavo government. Even if that were the right model, unlike in 1970, the country currently has no Forex to move forwards.
However, Karunaratne and many others, including the spokespersons of the “Aragalaya” (Agitation and Protest) groups rarely indicate the next set of steps. It is amusing to read some writers hark back to how the Kerensky government was replaced by the Bolsheviks, although the dynamics of each such black-swan event is utterly different from each other and those of yore. The only common factor is that all such “political revolutions” lead to arson, anarchy, and gory gulags.
The nature of globalization and the consequent incapacity of small nations to guide their economic destines make a strong case for demanding a general monetary amnesty – a debt cancellation programme – that should be launched in the wake of the Ukrainian war that toppled the precarious balance. The war is a massive money earner for the arm- manufacturing nations (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26O-2SVcrw0).
Furthermore, we can extrapolate from the 1970s model that Karunartne seems to strongly support. A small country like Sri Lanka CANNOT plan its economy unless and until it achieves some sovereignty over its supply of food and fuel. Energy is the life blood of modern societies. I have in my past writings (The Island 6th May 2019, and The Island, 27-June-2022) contended that Sri Lanka can use its biodiversity and its agrarian cultural framework rather than traditional industrialization to achieve self-sufficiency in food, and energy within a few planting seasons. Lanka had achieved self-sufficiency in food already, prior to its misadventure with “Toxin-Free” pseudo-science. As for energy, virtual self-sufficiency in petroleum and diesel substitutes can be achieved by exploiting its vegetable oils, as well as dendro (wood) energy. Exploiting solar energy has to wait for enough Forex savings to purchase solar panels. They should be installed on floats deployed to cut evaporation of water from reservoirs, and thereby increase hydropower outputs by 30-40% even without solar panels.
So, although Karunaratne has not touched on several issues and stuck to bashing the IMF, it is a rapid read and a spring board for further thought.
Opinion
U.S. foreign policy double standards and Iran’s Iron theocracy
The world’s most theatrical stage
Welcome to the Grand Circus
If global geopolitics were a TV show, it would be cancelled after the first season for being too unbelievable. Consider the plot: the world’s largest arms exporter lectures others about peace; a government that executed over 500 people in a single year tells its citizens it governs by divine law; and international bodies created to enforce rules seem to apply those rules with remarkable … flexibility. Welcome to the real world of international relations, where the rules are made up and the principles don’t matter.
This analysis examines two of the most consequential actors shaping global instability today: the United States of America, a democracy that can’t quite decide whether it believes in democracy, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocracy that has perfected the art of punishing its own people for simply existing.
Episode I: The United States, ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’
The Democracy Export Business
The United States has, for decades, positioned itself as the global guardian of democracy, freedom, and human rights. It is a noble brand. The marketing budget alone, in the form of military expenditure at $886 billion in 2023, is staggering. And yet, the product being sold and the product being delivered have often been … different things.
The CIA-backed coup of 1953, codenamed Operation Ajax, removed Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated the autocratic Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, primarily to protect Anglo-American oil interests.
Nuclear Exceptionalism: The World’s Worst-Kept Secret
The United States currently holds approximately 5,044–5,177 nuclear warheads (depending on the source and year), while Russia being the largest with a stockpile estimated at approximately 5,580 warheads. yet it leads international campaigns demanding that other nations not develop nuclear weapons. This is a bit like the world’s most heavily armed person standing at the door of a gun shop, telling customers they cannot purchase firearms.
Furthermore, Israel is widely believed to possess 80–90 nuclear warheads. The United States has never imposed sanctions on Israel for this. India and Pakistan, both outside the NPT, were rewarded with nuclear cooperation deals after the tested nuclear weapons.
The Saudi Arabia Paradox
Perhaps, no relationship illustrates U.S. foreign policy hypocrisy more vividly than Washington’s alliance with Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom is an absolute monarchy with no elections, no free press, where women were legally barred from driving until 2018, and where the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, carried out, according to U.S. intelligence, on orders from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, resulted in … arms sales continuing and diplomatic ties intact.
The United States sold Saudi Arabia over $37 billion in arms between 2015 and 2020, weapons used in a Yemen war that the United Nations described as one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. Yet the U.S. simultaneously held press conferences about human rights. The cognitive dissonance is not a bug. It is the feature.
Iraq: The Weapons of Mass Distraction
In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq on the basis of alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that did not exist. The invasion resulted in an estimated 150,000–1,000,000 Iraqi civilian deaths depending on methodology, the displacement of millions, the destabilization of an entire region, and the rise of the Islamic State, none of which appeared in the original brochure. The officials responsible for this foreign policy catastrophe faced no international tribunal. No sanctions were imposed on the United States. Several architects of the war are today respected media commentators.
Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC), an institution the United States has never ratified, is expected to hold others to account for far lesser offenses. As of 2024, the U.S. has actively sanctioned ICC officials who attempted to investigate American personnel for potential war crimes in Afghanistan.
Episode II: Iran, The People’s Nightmare
Iran’s political system is built on the concept of Velayat-e Faqih, the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, a political-theological doctrine holding that a senior Islamic cleric should govern society. In practice, this means that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, unelected by the general public, holds veto power over all branches of government, controls the military, the judiciary, state media, and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The elected president, whether ‘moderate’ or ‘hardliner’, operates within a system where real power resides with the Supreme Leader and an unelected Guardian Council that vets all candidates and can disqualify anyone it deems insufficiently Islamic. In the 2021 presidential election, the Guardian Council disqualified over 590 candidates out of 592 who applied. The word ‘election’ is being used loosely here.
Women’s Rights: A Systematic Dismantling
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian women have endured one of the most comprehensive rollbacks of rights in modern history. Within weeks of the revolution, mandatory hijab laws were imposed, women were barred from serving as judges, and the minimum marriage age for girls was reduced to 9 years (later revised to 13 in 1982). This was not incidental policy; it was ideological architecture.
Today, Iranian women face legal discrimination across virtually every domain. Under the Iranian Civil Code, a woman’s testimony in court counts as half that of a man’s. Women cannot travel abroad without the written permission of their husband or male guardian. Married women cannot work without spousal consent in many circumstances. The diyeh (blood money) for a woman’s life is legally valued at half that of a man.
In September 2022, 22-year-old Mahsa (Zhina) Amini died in the custody of Iran’s Morality Police, after being arrested for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly. Her death triggered the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, one of the largest protest movements in Iranian history. The government’s response was to kill over 500 protesters, arrest more than 19,000, and execute at least four people in connection with the protests by early 2023.
The IRGC and State-Sponsored Repression
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a military-economic-political entity unlike any other in the region. It controls an estimated 20–40% of Iran’s economy through businesses, construction contracts, and import monopolies. It commands proxy militias across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. And it suppresses domestic dissent with a ruthlessness that has drawn consistent condemnation from United Nations human rights bodies.
Amnesty International’s 2022-2023 annual report documented the IRGC and security forces using live ammunition, birdshot, and metal pellets against protesters, deliberately targeting eyes, resulting in hundreds being blinded. The UN Special Rapporteur on Iran documented ‘serious, widespread and systematic human rights violations’ constituting potential crimes against humanity.
Episode III: Where the Two Hypocrisies Meet
The relationship between the United States and Iran is, in many ways, a story of two entities who deserve each other in the sense that the behavUior of each government has fed the domestic narrative of the other for decades.
Washington uses Iran as justification for its military presence in the Gulf, its arms sales to autocratic Gulf states, and its general posture as indispensable regional hegemon. Tehran uses American hostility and sanctions as justification for economic failure, political repression, and nuclear advancement. Both governments’ hard-liners need each other to remain in power.
The Iranian people, 85 million of them, majority under 35, highly educated, and overwhelmingly wanting engagement with the world, are trapped between a government that treats them as subjects and an international sanctions regime that punishes them for their government’s choices. The American people, meanwhile, continue paying for a foreign policy architecture that serves arms manufacturers, defense contractors, and geopolitical abstractions more than it serves democratic values or human security.
Some Uncomfortable Truths
The United States is not the villain of every story, nor is Iran irredeemably authoritarian in the hearts of its people. What is consistent, and what this analysis has documented, is that both governments operate by standards they refuse to apply to themselves.
Tehran’s theocratic governance has failed its population economically, politically, and most visibly in its treatment of women and dissidents. The Woman, Life, Freedom movement showed the world what Iranian society wants. The government’s violent response showed the world what the Islamic Republic fears.
The lesson, uncomfortable as it is, is that powerful states, whether wielding aircraft carriers or theology, tend to exempt themselves from the rules they want others to follow. The only antidote is an informed public that refuses to accept these double standards as the natural order of things. Read critically. Follow the money. And remember: when a government tells you it acts in the name of God or democracy.
(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)
Opinion
SLC Grants to clubs and associations under scrutiny
The scale and manner of grant distributions underscore the urgent need to rectify the weaknesses identified by the Auditor General. Remarkably, the accounts for the years 2024 and 2025 are still not published and only the 2023 accounts are available for public scrutiny.
Grants to clubs and associations increased from LKR 1.30 billion in the prior year to LKR 2.46 billion in 2023, representing an escalation of over LKR 1.15 billion year-on-year. These grants were distributed among 36 recipient clubs and associations, with individual allocations ranging from approximately LKR 1.5 million to almost LKR 300 million. Such wide variation and substantial growth warrant clear public disclosure of the allocation framework, the approval processes, and the beneficiary criteria.
While it is understandable that higher profitability enables greater financial support to clubs, the absence of a transparent, rule-based grant policy gives rise to governance concerns, and unless properly explained, leaves room for malicious or unfounded allegations that grant allocations may be used to influence voting behaviour or entrench existing officials. Robust disclosure and effective oversight are therefore essential to safeguard institutional credibility. The precise immediate need for high funding and their monitoring processes need to be divulged.
A case in point is Colombo Cricket Club (CCC), which received LKR 279,531,827 in 2023, making it the highest individual club recipient. As disclosed under the related-party notes to the financial statements, the President of Sri Lanka Cricket is also the President of Colombo Cricket Club, resulting in this transaction being classified as a related-party transaction.
In contrast to several grant recipient entities reporting profits, Sri Lanka Cricket recorded a deficit of approximately Rs. 2 billion in its Statement of Financial Performance for 2023.
It is also noteworthy from the cash flow statement that cash and fund balances declined sharply, from approximately LKR 10.8 billion in the previous year to around LKR 5.6 billion in 2023, representing a significant depletion of liquid resources within a single financial year.
A more meaningful and complete evaluation of these developments—particularly the position of funds available as at 31 December 2024 and 31 December 2025—will only be possible once the financial statements for 2024 and 2025 are released and subjected to public scrutiny.
A cricket enthusiast – Moratuwa
Opinion
Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority Act 2026 fails all affacted communities
The Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority Bill was passed into law by the Parliament of Sri Lanka on 4 March. According to Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Dr. Anil Jayantha, the main object of the Act is to establish an Authority to “license and supervise the under-regulated microfinance and moneylending sector, aiming to protect borrowers from exploitation and ensure financial stability”.
However, the Yukthi Collective is saddened and disappointed that a government which pledged to take “measures to alleviate the burden of predatory microfinance loans with high interest rates on women” (NPP Manifesto, 2024: Page no. 44), will now add to their unbearable weight.
The new Act, as virtually all legislation enacted by Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s government, is a legacy of the anti-working class Ranil Wickremesinghe regime. It evades the root causes of the microfinance trap, and ignores debt justice for women borrowers.
It fails in understanding the connections between household debt and public debt. The vicious cycle of national debt is sustained by lack of growth in economic activity because of poor access to affordable credit.
It fails to make equal representation of women mandatory in the new Authority. If representatives of women borrowers and their self-run organisations are not present in the regulatory body, how will its members know of their lived experiences and make decisions that value women’s unpaid and paid contributions to sustaining life?
System Change
Millions of indebted households voted for the NPP with hope and expectation of ‘system change’. But instead of honouring its manifesto promise to them, the government has let them down in the law-making process; as well as the focus and substance of the new Act.
It is appalling that NPP parliamentarians, including some of its women members, appear not to have read and understood the bill they enacted into law, nor spoke to the rural credit community providers in their electorates for their views.
Predatory lending exists in the formal and informal sectors. Within this ecosystem, the Act fails to understand, identify, and prohibit predatory lending and recovery practices. It is a cover for the Central Bank’s failure to properly regulate ‘Licensed Finance Companies’ in the interests of citizens.
The biggest offenders are the big finance companies, in which some parliamentarians are deposit-holders. Therefore, some lawmakers benefit from excess profitmaking through exploitative practices, at the expense of poor mostly rural women.
Where law reform should discipline the bullies and thugs in credit delivery, it will instead wipe out, through over-regulation, community-based and managed lenders such as death donation societies, farmer associations, and urban and rural women’s collectives, which have been a lifeline for vulnerable working-class women and a defence from harmful recovery practices.
Structural Adjustment Programmes
The motivation for this new law are the market- and capital- friendly structural reforms insisted by International Financial Institutions; not the concerns and needs of those at the mercy of predatory lenders.
From the Microfinance Act 2016, to the 2023 version of the Ranil Wickremesinghe regime, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) through its loans has been a promoter of these regressive reforms.
The 2026 Act, with some changes suggested by the Supreme Court in 2024 and hardly any of the changes demanded by affected communities, has been moved forward by the NPP government in line with ADB loan conditionalities.
The path of de-regulation for banking, finance, trade, and investment; and over-regulation of poor people’s savings and credit institutions, smacks of the bias to big capital, which the NPP in opposition once criticised.
Reforms needed
The financial and banking reforms we want to see are to make credit from state banks and public funds accessible and affordable to women producers in agriculture and micro and small business operators; with decent wages and social protection for workers; that improve household opportunity for a dignified livelihood and decent lives.
Yukthi is a forum supporting working people’s movements and people’s struggles for democracy and justice in Sri Lanka.
by Yukthi Collective
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