Business
GSP+ withdrawal: How would it impact Sri Lanka’s economy?
By Asanka Wijesinghe and Eleesha Munasinghe
Sri Lanka’s preferential access to the vital European Union (EU) market faces fresh challenges after the European Parliament’s special resolution adopted in June 2021. The resolution calls for an assessment on “whether there is sufficient reason, as a last resort, to initiate a procedure for the temporary withdrawal of Sri Lanka’s GSP+ status.”.
The GSP+ is a non-reciprocal trading arrangement whereby Sri Lanka does not have to lower tariffs in return but is required to implement certain non-trade related conventions to benefit from preferential access. The GSP+ arrangement slashes import duties to zero for vulnerable low and lower-middle-income countries that implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, environment protection, and good governance. This article assesses the impact of a hypothetical withdrawal of GSP+ on Sri Lanka’s exports to the EU: the largest single trading bloc, with the United Kingdom (UK), accounting for 30% of Sri Lanka’s exports.
The Impact
A possible withdrawal of GSP+ will increase the tariffs for Sri Lankan products up to the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs. Consequently, products coming from Sri Lanka will be more expensive in the EU market, directly reducing the export demand from Sri Lanka. However, Sri Lanka’s competitors that continue to benefit from the EU’s GSP will face zero preferential tariffs. Thus, in addition to the trade destruction effect, with the relative price of goods from Sri Lanka being higher, the trade will be diverted to those competitors. Using a partial equilibrium analysis, one can ex-ante quantify these effects of GSP+ withdrawal. Assuming the UK will follow the EU lead, and Sri Lanka will face the lower bound of relevant MFN tariffs, partial equilibrium estimates show that Sri Lanka’s exports to the EU will fall by 627 USD million The simulations are done taking 2019 as the base year.
The worst-hit sectors are apparel (HS 61 and HS 62), tobacco (HS 24), seafood (HS 03), and rubber (HS 40) sectors. The combined loss for the apparel sector will be as much as 494 USD million, and it is 79% of the total estimated trade loss. In addition, the seafood sector is deemed to lose 20 USD million or 17% of the sector’s 2019 exports to the EU. Thus, losing preference to a vital market will be hard for the recovering seafood industry
There are two caveats of an ex-ante impact assessment of this kind. The first is that the analysis is based on assumed elasticities. However, the assumptions are not overly restrictive. The second is that all the eligible exports from Sri Lanka do not utilise the GSP+ facility. Thus, the actual impact will be contingent upon the utilisation ratio. However, after Sri Lanka regained GSP+ preference in 2017, the utilisation ratio increased, reaching 61.8% in 2019, improving from 55.1% in 2017. Therefore, the increasing utilisation ratio makes the potential impact still significant.
Notably, there is a variation of the utilisation rate within the HS chapters, .
The apparel sector will be relatively resilient to a loss of preference as its utilisation ratio was 52% in 2019. However, a loss of preference will halt any industry drive that aims to increase the utilisation rate and then expand the market share in the EU. Further, the 2010 loss of GSP+ inflicted high costs to the industry. As seafood, rubber products, and footwear sectors utilise more than 90% of GSP+ preference, those sectors will be more vulnerable to the shock. Indeed, the difference between GSP+ preferential tariff and MFN tariff for seafood is higher -zero versus 7.5% respectively aggravating the impact.
Future Steps
The losses from GSP+ preference will be significant and heterogeneous across sectors. The GSP+ also opens the door for EU investments as outsourcing production to preference receivers is beneficial to the EU. In addition, sectoral losses may spillover to the overall economy exacerbating poverty and income inequality. Thus, avoiding such losses should be a political priority for policymakers. Less dependence on the EU market is a widely suggested strategy. Diversification is indeed beneficial when it is done for economic reasons. However, ad-hoc moves to diversify to escape from unresolved political issues will not do much good. The EU market is a high-end export destination for Sri Lanka. The quality improvements, product standards, and consumer preferences positively challenge the Sri Lankan exporters to improve product quality and competitiveness.
Additionally, a non-reciprocal preference for various products incentivises product diversification away from traditional exports into more complex products like electronic equipment, including semiconductors (HS chapter 85). Therefore, while Sri Lanka should work to secure the GSP+ resolving the current political issues and focus on fully utilising GSP+ preference in the short run. In the long run, as GSP+ is contingent upon income level, Sri Lanka will lose it someday, and as such should enter into reciprocal trade agreements with the EU and other high-end markets, including the US.
Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/09/28/gsp-withdrawal-how-would-it-impact-sri-lankas-economy/
Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Economist at the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He is also interested in the impact of adjustment costs of trade, gravity modelling in trade, econometrics and the trade origins of populist politics. He has undertaken efficiency analyses, particularly public spending efficiency, using parametric and non-parametric efficiency analysis approaches.
Asanka holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. His latest research focused on the effect of global trade-induced labour market changes on voting behaviour in recent US elections, including the 2016 presidential election.
Eleesha Munasinghe was a research intern at IPS. She is currently an undergraduate (Economics and Finance) at New Castle University in UK.
Business
SEC, CSE and CA Sri Lanka sign MOU to advance XBRL-based digital reporting for listed companies
The Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka (SEC), Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), and the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka (CA Sri Lanka) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to collaborate on the implementation of eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) based reporting for companies listed on the CSE.
The agreement marks a significant milestone in Sri Lanka’s efforts to modernise corporate reporting and strengthen the digital infrastructure of the capital market. The initiative aims to streamline the submission of both financial and non-financial information by listed entities, enhancing transparency, accessibility and investor confidence.
The MoU formalises the partnership, following the establishment of a joint SEC-CSE committee tasked with driving the initiative. With the in-principle approval of the SEC, the committee has been working closely with CA Sri Lanka to develop the framework required for the successful rollout.
XBRL is the internationally recognised standard for digital business reporting, developed and maintained by XBRL International, a global non-profit consortium. The standard enables financial and business information to be reported in a structured, machine-readable format, facilitating more efficient analysis, comparison and interpretation of corporate disclosures by regulators, investors, analysts and other stakeholders.
The introduction of XBRL reporting is expected to deliver several key benefits for both listed companies and users of financial information. These include reducing reliance on manual data processing, improving the accuracy and consistency of reported information, supporting more advanced data analysis, and lowering long-term reporting costs. The flexibility of the XBRL framework also allows organisations to tailor taxonomies to meet specific reporting requirements. In addition, XBRL adoption will enhance market transparency and efficiency by enabling quicker access to comparable corporate information. It will also align Sri Lanka’s reporting framework with global standards, making the country’s capital market more accessible and attractive to international investors familiar with XBRL-based financial reporting.
Business
LOLC Insurance and Seylan Bank celebrate Bancassurance Excellence through “League of Greatness” 2025
LOLC Insurance recently hosted the “LOLC Insurance – Seylan Bancassurance Felicitation Night 2025” under the theme “League of Greatness,” celebrating the success of its longstanding bancassurance partnership with Seylan Bank. The event marked another milestone in a strategic collaboration that has continued to grow since 2013.
The felicitation ceremony brought together senior management, sales leadership, branch representatives, and top-performing teams from both organisations to recognise excellence, appreciate contributions, and reaffirm the enduring partnership between LOLC Insurance and Seylan Bank. The collaboration currently spans 104 Seylan Bank branches across Sri Lanka, delivering accessible life and general insurance solutions islandwide.
Speaking at the event, Ramesh Jayasekara, Director/Chief Executive Officer, Seylan Bank PLC, stated, “Our partnership with LOLC Insurance continues to create meaningful value for customers while further strengthening the bancassurance proposition within the banking sector. The dedication and collaborative spirit demonstrated by both teams have been instrumental in achieving these milestones and sustaining the growth of this partnership. We look forward to enhancing our collaboration and delivering greater value to customers in the years ahead.”
Sharing insights during the event, Eugene Seneviratne, Deputy General Manager – Retail Banking, Seylan Bank, added, “The professionalism and operational efficiency demonstrated by the bancassurance teams have been instrumental in consolidating this partnership. Our branch teams continue to seamlessly manage day-to-day bancassurance functions with minimal operational escalations, reflecting the strength of a well-structured and highly efficient framework. This has contributed to a smooth and mutually beneficial working relationship, enabling the partnership to enhance coordination, execution, and overall performance.”
Addressing the gathering, Kithsiri Gunawardena, Chairman/Principal Officer of LOLC General Insurance and Director of LOLC Life Assurance, stated, “Successful partnerships are built on trust, shared values, and a common vision. The strength and longevity of this collaboration reflect the commitment of both organisations to delivering meaningful impact to customers while advancing the country’s bancassurance sector. The positive feedback and appreciation consistently received from Seylan Bank regarding the quality of service delivered and the steadfast support extended by the teams stand as a testament to the professionalism and service excellence upheld throughout the partnership.”
Business
The bill nobody budgets for: Healthcare and the retirement gap in Sri Lanka
Most people, when they think about retirement, think about income. Will there be enough to cover food, utilities, and the basics of daily life? That question is important. But there is a second question that sits right behind it, quieter and far more expensive, and most people do not ask it until it is already upon them. What happens when you get sick?
Healthcare in retirement is not an occasional inconvenience. For most Sri Lankans, it becomes one of the largest and most unpredictable expenses of the post-work years. It arrives gradually at first, and then all at once. A routine check-up becomes a specialist referral. A specialist referral leads to investigations. Investigations lead to a diagnosis. A diagnosis leads to medication that never stops. And running alongside all of it, quietly compounding, is an inflation rate for healthcare that outpaces most other costs a retiree faces.
This is the retirement expense that most financial plans either underestimate or ignore entirely. It is a gap that Ceylinco Life, Sri Lanka’s life insurance market leader for 22 consecutive years, has observed widen steadily across the communities it serves and the thousands of policyholders whose retirement journeys it has accompanied over three decades.
“Healthcare is the cost that most people acknowledge in the abstract but do not plan for in practice. We have seen, over many years and across many thousands of policyholders, that the single biggest financial shock in retirement is rarely a collapse in savings. It is an illness, or a prolonged condition, that was never budgeted for. Sri Lanka’s public health system has served this country well, but it was not built for an ageing population managing multiple chronic conditions over decades. The responsibility to bridge that gap sits with each individual, and the earlier that planning begins, the more manageable that gap becomes,” says Dhiranjan Canagasabey, Senior Assistant General Manager/Head of Marketing, Ceylinco Life.
A country that is ageing faster than its health system is preparing for
Sri Lanka is in the middle of a demographic shift that has no historical precedent in this country. By 2042, one in four Sri Lankans will be above the age of 60. Life expectancy, according to United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, now stands at approximately 77.67 years nationally. That means the average retiree is looking at roughly 17 years of post-work life, with health needs that become more intensive, and more expensive, with every passing year.
Non-communicable diseases are at the centre of that picture. According to research published in 2025 in the Journal of Clinical Medicine, NCD deaths in Sri Lanka have risen substantially over two decades, with total deaths due to diabetes alone rising by 169% between 2004 and 2020. Cardiovascular disease, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and cancer all carry long-term treatment costs that can run for years or decades before they become fatal. These are not short-term medical events. They are sustained financial obligations.
Sri Lanka allocates approximately 4.4% of GDP to total health expenditure, well below the global average of 6.74%, according to World Bank data updated in December 2025. Government public health spending accounts for only around 8 to 9% of general government expenditure. The gap between what the public system offers and what the ageing population will need is already visible. It is going to widen considerably.
What free healthcare actually means for a retiree
Sri Lanka has long been proud of its free public healthcare system, and rightly so. It has delivered health outcomes well above what the country’s income level would typically produce. But pride in the system should not obscure what it cannot do, and increasingly, what it is struggling to do consistently.
According to the Institute of Policy Studies, access to primary healthcare fell from 95% of the population in 2019 to 82% in 2022 and 2023, with rural areas bearing the steepest decline. Household healthcare costs, in the same period, rose by 48% in a single year between 2020 and 2021. Medicine shortages, long queues, and limited specialist services in provincial hospitals are not new complaints. But for an elderly person managing a chronic condition, they translate directly into out-of-pocket spending that was never planned for.
On average, more than 60% of Sri Lankan households already incur private healthcare costs, according to a study published in the journal Health Policy. For households that include elderly members with chronic conditions, that proportion is higher, and the burden is heavier. The combination of a free system under strain and rising private costs is not a future risk. It is already the daily reality for many retirees.
The quiet toll of chronic illness
A 65-year-old managing type 2 diabetes, which is increasingly common in Sri Lanka, does not face a single large medical expense. They face a continuous one. Monthly medication. Quarterly blood tests. Periodic specialist consultations at a private facility, because the waiting list at the government hospital is too long or the specialist they need is unavailable locally. Annual check-ups. Occasional hospitalisation when blood sugar levels become difficult to control. Each item is manageable on its own. Together, across a fifteen-year retirement, they represent a substantial sum.
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