Business

Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic policy setting: Cohesion or confusion?

Published

5 years ago

2021/08/31

By Dushni Weerakoon

The hike in policy interest rates by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in August 2021 marks a shift from stimulus to exit strategies in the pandemic era. Such recalibrations globally are focused on how to tackle the historically large debt-to-GDP ratios that the COVID-19 pandemic leaves in its wake. At end 2020, advanced economies (AEs) on average had amassed debt to the tune of 120% of their GDP with emerging markets economies (EMEs) trailing some distance at 65% of GDP. As the spotlight moves, the full impacts of the macroeconomic policy measures, hitherto obscured by the urgency to deal with the health crisis, are now coming under greater scrutiny.

Sri Lanka’s debt metrics make an orderly exit more difficult

Many countries, especially AEs, exercised their ‘monetary sovereignty’ to create and print their own money to support stimulus efforts. They have done so through coordinated monetary/fiscal policies – i.e. using monetary policy to keeping borrowing costs low while fiscal authorities provide back-stop assurance. Some are better positioned to manage the inherent risks and conflicts of interest that are involved in this exercise. AEs have an advantage as issuers of reserve currencies with global demand and historically low interest rates; EMEs with limited exposure to foreign currency-denominated debt and holding comfortable stockpiles of reserves are less exposed to disruptive tail events.

Such countries can bring down their debt ratios if they are able to maintain nominal GDP growth persistently above the average interest rates that they pay on their debt – i.e. the growth-corrected interest rate (r-g) whereby countries can run modest primary deficits and still have a stable or falling debt-to-GDP ratio.

Sri Lanka is not similarly positioned. Its debt metrics point to high vulnerabilities – a high debt-to-GDP ratio of 101% of GDP, large exposure to foreign currency-denominated debt, and a hefty foreign debt repayment schedule. Under these conditions, the threat from exercising monetary sovereignty was always self-evident. A depreciating currency, notwithstanding distortionary controls on imports and capital flows, worsens the debt vulnerabilities.

Domestic and foreign debts are hardly similar. Given Sri Lanka’s debt metrics and the fundamental economic imbalances that have generated them, simple accounting identities do not always offer very plausible solutions. If the exchange rate depreciates, it adds to the real value of outstanding debt, relative to the size of the economy, even if interest rates remain modest. Further, shocks like COVID-19 raise risk premia, and marginal borrowing costs can rise suddenly and sharply, cutting countries abruptly out of financial markets.

Crucial to instill and retain macroeconomic policy credibility

Short of distortionary measures such as inflating debt away or maintaining an overvalued currency, a primary surplus is needed to stop the public debt-to-GDP ratio from rising and an even larger surplus is needed to reduce it. Improving the primary budget balance calls for tax increases or public spending cuts that are unpopular and have upfront costs. Given the government’s unwillingness to go down this path, households and firms will be required instead to bear the cost through higher interest rates that will affect their consumption and investments.

Higher interest rates in this instance will also not ‘pull in’ foreign capital to firm up the exchange rate given the risk premia on the currency front as depreciating pressure deepens. With reserves in hand to cover barely two months of imports, the forex market will continue to face volatility and instability until a steady stream of capital inflows, beyond short-term swaps, emerge. Until such time, a depreciating domestic currency will increase the interest burden as calculated in that currency. If debt servicing interest rate costs are pushed persistently above the economic growth rate, Sri Lanka’s debt burden will grow steadily even in the absence of new borrowing – a context sometimes called a ‘debt spiral’.

Without a clearly spelt-out debt sustainability path, Sri Lanka seems to be placing all its bets on foreign direct investment (FDI) to ease external pressures and revive economic growth. For a successful outcome – i.e. productivity gains to drive long-term growth – the type of FDI matters. The more desirable is efficiency-seeking FDI, but this is also harder to attract. For now, a policy environment of import curbs and capital controls is more likely to see strategic-seeking infrastructure-led FDI. The latter runs the risk of switching resources to non-tradable sectors – reducing the availability of external financing over the longer term – and the prospect of a short-lived growth burst as before in the post-war years. Crucially too, the sole reliance on FDI leaves Sri Lanka at the mercy of developments beyond its control.

Rather, efforts to attract FDI should be coupled with building effective policy strategies that instill and maintain credibility. Indeed, this is all the more important as Sri Lanka appears to be firmly against an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. IMF loan amounts are small and it no longer has much sway on debt relief with much of EME foreign debt held by private institutional investors and China. An IMF programme is mostly useful in firming up sovereign credit ratings and reviving the sentiments of investors. But investor sentiments can also improve if governments put forward and implement credible policy strategies. By contrast, the CBSL’s policy rate adjustment to anchor expectations, for instance, will not stick if direct financing of fiscal spending is to continue under yield control measures. Instead, market convictions on the credibility of the policy mix will drive economic fundamentals. As Sri Lanka readies to transition out of pandemic-related emergency support, some notion of fiscal and debt sustainability to anchor confidence should be the priority in Budget 2022 preparations.

* This blog is based on the comprehensive chapter on “Economic Performance and Outlook: Managing the Crisis and Promoting Recovery” in IPS’ forthcoming annual flagship publication ‘Sri Lanka: The State of Economy 2021’

Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/08/30/sri-lankas-macroeconomic-policy-setting-cohesion-or-confusion/

Dushni Weerakoon is the Executive Director of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) and Head of its Macroeconomic Policy research. She joined IPS in 1994 after obtaining her PhD, and has written and published widely on macroeconomic policy, regional trade integration and international economics. She has extensive experience working in policy development committees and official delegations of the Government of Sri Lanka. Dushni Weerakoon holds a BSc in Economics with First Class Honours from the Queen’s University of Belfast, U.K., and an MA and PhD in Economics from the University of Manchester, U.K.

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Business

Saudi Vision 2030 offers new economic opportunities for Sri Lanka

Published

13 hours ago

2026/10/21

Sahan Weerasooriya

International delegates

By Ifham Nizam

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is creating opportunities for Sri Lanka in trade, investment, renewable energy, tourism and employment while strengthening the longstanding friendship between the two countries.

Led by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, the programme aims to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy, attract international investment, develop new industries and reduce dependence on oil revenues.

Launched in 2016, Vision 2030 is built around three pillars: a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation. Its focus on tourism, technology, logistics, renewable energy, industrial development and private-sector growth aligns with Sri Lanka’s need for foreign investment, stronger exports, energy security and sustainable employment.

Trade and investment opportunities

The establishment of the first Saudi–Sri Lanka Joint Business Council in November 2025 created a platform for businesses to identify investment opportunities, develop partnerships and address trade barriers. Saudi participation in Sri Lanka Expo 2027 could further strengthen commercial ties.

Sri Lanka can expand exports of value-added tea, spices, apparel, rubber products and processed foods to Saudi Arabia. Better distribution networks, packaging and compliance with market standards would help local producers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, compete more effectively.

Saudi investors could explore Sri Lankan tourism, logistics, food processing, renewable energy and export-oriented manufacturing. The goal should be long-term partnerships that create jobs, transfer technology and improve productivity rather than simply increasing trade.

Renewable energy and green investment

Energy is another promising area. Saudi Arabia’s diversification programme includes major investments in renewable energy and emerging technologies. Partnerships in solar power, battery storage, electricity infrastructure and energy efficiency could help Sri Lanka reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and improve energy security.

Cooperation could also include technical training and technology transfer. Saudi investment in sustainable tourism, modern agriculture, water management and infrastructure could create further opportunities if projects are commercially viable and supported by transparent regulations.

Vision 2030 seeks to make Saudi Arabia a major international tourism destination while improving services for pilgrims visiting Makkah and Madinah.

Sri Lanka could attract more Saudi visitors through better air connectivity, targeted marketing and partnerships with travel operators. Sri Lankan companies could also supply food, hospitality services and other products to Saudi Arabia’s expanding tourism sector.

Employment remains central to bilateral relations. Sri Lankan workers contribute to the Saudi economy, while their remittances provide valuable foreign exchange at home. As Saudi Arabia develops new industries, Sri Lanka can strengthen vocational training and skills-based recruitment in hospitality, healthcare, construction and technical services. Recognised qualifications, ethical recruitment and worker protection would benefit both countries.

Economic cooperation is complemented by Saudi Arabia’s distinctive spiritual role as custodian of Islam’s two holiest mosques.

Through the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques’ Guests Programme for Hajj, Umrah and Visit, King Salman approved the hosting, at his personal expense, of 1,000 male and female Umrah performers from around the world in June 2026. Implemented by the Saudi Ministry of Islamic Affairs, Dawah and Guidance, the programme’s first group included 250 guests from 16 Asian countries, who visited Madinah and Makkah and took part in cultural and educational activities.

For those invited, performing Umrah and visiting the holy sites is a deeply meaningful religious experience. The initiative reflects Saudi Arabia’s commitment to facilitating worship and strengthening bonds among Muslim communities. It also complements Vision 2030’s Pilgrim Experience Programme, which aims to improve transport, accommodation, digital services and facilities for pilgrims.

This spiritual and cultural engagement adds a human dimension to commercial ties, helping deepen understanding between the two peoples.

Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia established diplomatic relations in 1974, and their partnership has grown through trade, employment, development cooperation and diplomacy. The next step is to convert this goodwill into measurable results.

Sri Lanka needs a clear portfolio of viable projects, predictable regulations and efficient procedures to attract Saudi investment. Local businesses must be prepared to meet Saudi market requirements, while the Joint Business Council and Sri Lanka Expo 2027 can help connect investors and entrepreneurs.

The partnership should ultimately be judged by increased exports, productive investment, quality employment and the transfer of skills and technology.

Vision 2030 offers Sri Lanka an opportunity to build a more dynamic relationship with Saudi Arabia by combining commercial cooperation with diplomatic, spiritual and people-to-people ties. Together, the two countries can create lasting benefits for their economies and communities.

Business

LKR 3 billion HLAB fund launched to help Sri Lankan businesses scale

Published

14 hours ago

2026/10/21

Sahan Weerasooriya

Hatch, Lankan Angel Network and BOV Capital join forces, with First Capital Holdings PLC committing LKR 300 million as anchor limited partner in a fund built on a commercial investment case.

Starting a business is difficult. Building one that can grow, compete and endure is harder still.

For Sri Lankan founders, the challenge doesn’t end when they prove their idea works. The next stage demands stronger operations, access to new markets and the capital to pursue opportunities that could transform a promising venture into a sustainable business.

A new initiative aims to help more founders take that next step.

Hatch, Lankan Angel Network (LAN) and BOV Capital have launched HLAB, a collective LKR 3 billion fund designed to back early and growth stage regional companies that are incorporated in Sri Lanka. Announced at the final event of First Capital Startup Nation, organised by Hatch, the initiative brings together three established participants in the country’s startup ecosystem around a shared ambition: expanding access to capital for businesses seeking to grow.

Adding institutional participation to the initiative, First Capital Holdings PLC has committed LKR 300 million as the fund’s anchor limited partner, representing 10% of its total size.

From promising startups to enduring businesses

The transition from an early stage venture to a sustainable, growing company is a defining point in a founder’s journey. Businesses must move beyond establishing their models and begin building the operational strength and market reach needed to pursue larger opportunities.

Business

JXG’s Wasanthi Stephen makes history as the first female recipient of the CIPM Sri Lanka Lifetime Gold Award

Published

14 hours ago

2026/10/21

Sahan Weerasooriya

JXG (Janashakthi Group) celebrates Wasanthi Stephen, Group Chief Human Resources Officer, on becoming the first female recipient of the prestigious CIPM-Baurs Lifetime Gold Award 2026 from the Chartered Institute of Personnel Management (CIPM) Sri Lanka since the award’s inception. Presented on 14 October 2026, at the opening of the National Human Resource Conference (NHRC) 2026 at Monarch Imperial, Kotte, the award marks a historic milestone for Sri Lanka’s Human Resources profession and a proud moment for JXG.

The highest individual recognition in Sri Lanka’s Human Resource Management sphere, the CIPM Sri Lanka Lifetime Gold Award celebrates individuals whose long-standing contributions have advanced the HR profession at organisational, national, and international levels. It recognises professional excellence, ethical leadership, transformational impact, and a sustained commitment to people and institutions.