Wednesday 18th March, 2026

Long lines of vehicles are still seen outside filling stations despite the introduction of the QR-based fuel quota system. They show no signs of going away any time soon. Teething problems associated with the QR-controlled fuel rationing have persisted longer than usual for three reasons—some system flaws, difficulties faced by filling station workers in scanning some QR codes, especially the old ones issued in 2022, and a supply shortfall that has made many pumps run dry. The JVP-NPP government came to power promising a digital economy, among other things, and unveiled an ambitious digital policy in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. But it has not been able to ensure the smooth reimplementation of the QR-based fuel quota system, which was successfully used in 2022 to resolve a fuel crisis. So much for the government’s digital capability.

Some fillings stations have remained closed during the past several days for want of supplies, causing long queues near the ones where fuel is available albeit in insufficient quantities. The government must find out why these filling stations have not received fuel or whether they are hiding stocks. Its leaders know how the distribution of Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) fuel stocks was delayed in 2022 as part of a strategy to unsettle the then government. Complaints abound that many foreign-run filling stations do not receive supplies regularly. This is something the government must look into. It is not difficult to imagine how bad the situation would have been if all CPC-owned filling stations had been privatised.

The current fuel shortage is different from what we experienced in 2022, as we argued in a previous comment in response to some false claims made by the Opposition. Today, the country has dollars for oil imports, but the Iran conflict has disrupted global oil supplies, unlike in 2022, when it had no forex to pay for oil, which was readily available in the world market. So, the Opposition should stop comparing apples and oranges, and trying to gain political mileage out of the current fuel crisis.

However, the SLPP-UNP government managed to bring fuel queues to an end by introducing the QR-controlled fuel sales though it had neither dollars nor sufficient petroleum reserves at the time; the country was running on fumes, so to speak. Today, the government says the existing fuel reserves are sufficient for more than one month, and oil shipments are arriving on schedule, but it cannot manage the fuel stocks to ensure a reliable petroleum supply with the help of the QR-based rationing. It also claims that there are sufficient LPG stocks, but it has pathetically failed to resolve the countrywide LPG shortage. It may be recalled that the SLPP-UNP government sorted out a LPG shortage as well in 2022. It managed to do so despite the country’s forex woes and severely depleted gas stocks. The JVP-NPP government has no such problems. Sri Lanka’s Gross Official Reserves amounted to USD 6.0 bn (including a swap facility) at the time of the 2024 regime change. The current government has substantial reserves of foreign currency and fuel, but it cannot do away with the fuel queues, which are reportedly getting longer. Is it that the SLPP-UNP administration, which the JVP/NPP condemned as a failed regime, was more efficient and competent than the incumbent government in meeting the energy needs of the public amidst a crisis?

The biggest problem with the JVP-NPP government is that its leaders try to talk problems away instead of knuckling down to them. They let the grass grow under their feet, and when they begin to act, it is late. The manner in which they have sought to address the current fuel crisis is a case in point. They are in overdrive, doing what they should have done at least two weeks ago. They also had ample time to do a dry run of the QR-based fuel rationing system to prevent technical issues. They have endless meetings and nothing seems to come of them if the persistence of the problems they are intended to address is any indication.

As for long queues of vehicles near filling stations, the solution, in our view, is to replenish stocks expeditiously and couple the QR-based fuel quota system with last-digit or odd-even rationing.

Tuesday 17th March, 2026

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prematurely claimed victory in their war on Iran immediately after killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and inflicting heavy damage on the Iranian military bases and economic nerve centres. Trump even snubbed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, when the latter decided to send a warship to the Gulf region belatedly; he said the US and Israel had already won the war and therefore he did not need British help. But Trump is now asking other countries to send their warships to ensure the safety of the commercial vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed and is using as an effective strategic lever to mount economic pressure on the US and its allies.

Trump keeps on contradicting himself. He has asked for ships from other countries while claiming that Iran has been ‘beheaded’. When Iran threatened to close the Hormuz Strait, Trump said he would deploy the US warships there. Iran has since attacked 16 or 18 ships in that strait. Trump now says, “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated.” It was reported at the time of writing, that Trump had demanded help from all NATO allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran has been ‘decapitated’ as Trump claims, why can’t the US deploy its own warships to ensure the safety of vessels passing through the Hormuz Strait?

The response of the US allies to Trump’s request has been muted. China has reportedly rejected his call out of hand, saying the Strait of Hormuz is part of Iranian territory and Iran’s sovereignty must be respected. Why the other countries are wary of deploying their warships in a war the US and Israel have started is understandable. They know how dangerous naval incursions into Iran’s sea will be, with the war having taken an unexpected and unpredictable turn. Iran has unveiled new missile capabilities; it is now firing hypersonic missiles at Israel.

Washington has failed to live up to the expectations of its allies in the Persian Gulf. They expected the US to protect them against Iranian attacks. But they now have Iranian drones and missiles raining down on them, destroying their oil storage facilities and critical infrastructure. The US has sought assistance even from Ukraine, which has been dependent on Washington to fight Russia: it needs Ukrainian help to counter Iranian drone attacks on its allies in the region. This points to a serious military miscalculation the US and Israel have made. Shouldn’t they have done a proper assessment of Iran’s drone capability before going to war? They have spent billions of dollars to defend themselves against low-cost yet extremely destructive Iranian drones. Have Trump and Netanyahu bitten off more than they can chew in their war on Iran?

Trump, who once claimed that he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize more than anyone else, has plunged the entire world into chaos. Economies are groaning under soaring oil prices and global uncertainty. Economists have warned that at this rate the world may have a global recession to contend with sooner than expected. If the Iran conflict intensifies and/or drags on, the day may not be far off when economic hardships drive people to riot in many countries. Most of all, Trump’s military adventurism has severely damaged the foundation of the Washington-led global order, as it were. Iran is reportedly planning to allow passage for a limited number of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on the strict condition that the cargo is traded in Chinese yuan and not US dollars. This strategy is aimed at not only circumventing US sanctions but also giving a boost to the de-dollarization campaign. The ongoing war has also made the US swallow its pride and do an about-turn on its sanctions on Russian oil.

In a dramatic turn of events, Trump has gone on record as saying that Washington is talking to Iran, but Tehran is not yet ready to make a deal to end the war. Iran has made it clear that it will not end the war on Washington’s terms. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated conditions for ending the ongoing conflict. He demands acceptance of Iran’s rights, reparations, and international guarantees against future aggression.

Had Trump acted wisely, weighing all possible military and economic ramifications of his military campaign and refrained from letting the genie out of the bottle in the Middle East, he would not have had to seek others’ help to force it back in. One can only hope that the other world powers will learn from the unfolding conflict, realise the need to act with restraint and strive to resolve the worsening Middle East conflict soon.

Monday 16th March, 2026

The JVP-NPP government has finally brought itself to swallow its pride and introduce the QR-based fuel rationing system to face the current global oil crisis. It is notoriously slow on the draw and arrogantly dismissive of sound counsel. About three and a half months ago, its delayed response stood in the way of effective disaster management in the immediate aftermath of the landfall of Cyclone Ditwah.

The government mismanaged the current fuel crisis for two weeks. It rejected out of hand calls for fuel rationing when long lines of vehicles began to appear outside filling stations on the first day of the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. We repeatedly pointed out that there was no shame in rationing fuel during a global oil crisis. Instead of introducing the QR-based fuel sales to manage the meagre petroleum reserves by preventing panic buying and hoarding and curtailing consumption, the government, in its wisdom, kept on releasing fuel to the market. Maybe the JVP/NPP leaders considered it infra dig to introduce the QR-based fuel sales lest the credit for managing the crisis should go to their immediate predecessors, who introduced that method. It is also possible that they were all at sea due to inexperience or they resigned themselves to fatalism, hoping that the fuel crisis would resolve itself.

An absurd attempt is being made in some quarters to liken the current fuel crisis to the one we experienced in 2022. The two situations are as different as chalk and cheese. The 2022 fuel crisis was local, but the current one is global. In 2022, the SLPP government bankrupted the economy, leaving the country with no forex for fuel imports. Today, the country has foreign currency for oil imports, but the Iran conflict has disrupted the global oil supply.

The government craftily jacked up fuel prices the other day, claiming that they were intended to curtail fuel consumption. Thereafter, it resorted to fuel rationing, which is bound to cause severe difficulties to the public, but some fuel is certainly much better than no fuel at all. If not for rationing, the vast majority of motorists would have had to wait in never-ending queues outside filling stations for days on end and return home empty-handed the way they did at the height of the economic crisis in 2022.

Trishaw and school van operators are complaining that their weekly fuel quotas are not sufficient. The government should look into their complaints and redress their grievances. There were complaints of some teething problems yesterday. Many people found it difficult to obtain new QR codes, and some filling stations complained of technical issues. These problems must be sorted out expeditiously. There are also some holdouts, but they are bound to fall in line.

Stern action must be taken to prevent the emergence of a black market in fuel. A wag says Sri Lanka is now as oil rich as Iran’s Kharg Island, thanks to numerous hidden caches of fuel. Every trishaw doubled as a mini bowser to stockpile fuel during the past two weeks or so. It is now up to the police to seize hoarded fuel and bring the culprits to justice. There is also the possibility of some filling station operators themselves hoarding fuel and profiteering. They allegedly did so in 2022.

There are other measures that need to be adopted to manage the fuel crisis, which shows no signs of going away any time soon, with US President Donald Trump acting like a bull in a china shop. Countries like Pakistan have adopted methods such as work from home and shorter work weeks without pay reductions. Technology can play a pivotal role in helping reduce fuel consumption. There are many single-occupancy or low-occupancy vehicles on the Sri Lankan roads. A car-pooling app can be created to enable several commuters to share one vehicle, thereby reducing fuel consumption, traffic congestion and carbon emissions. We are not short of IT mavens capable of helping evolve a technological solution to the issue of underutilised vehicle capacity on the road.

A long-term solution to the energy crisis is obviously to reduce the country’s fossil fuel dependency. It defies comprehension why Sri Lanka, blessed with abundant sunshine throughout the year, continues to burn millions of tons of fossil fuel a year for transport, cooking, cooling and lighting. Every house must be equipped to harvest and store solar energy, while the use of electric vehicles is promoted as a national priority.

The country is experiencing a severe cooking gas shortage as well despite government politicians’ rhetoric, denials, claims and assurances. It is public knowledge that many people have several gas cylinders each and stock up on cooking gas. LPG dealers are also notorious for hoarding gas and selling it at black market rates at the expense of many ordinary citizens who languish in queues in vain. The QR-based quota system can be extended to LPG sales as well while raids are conducted to seize hoarded gas stocks.