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President’s Energy Directive ignored by the Power Ministry – II

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A reply to Dr Tilak Siyambalapitiya

Dr Janaka Ratnasiri

The piece written by Dr Tilak Siyambalapitiya (Dr TS) appearing in The Island of 24.02.2021, in response to my letter on 19.02.2021 is wide of the mark. The Power Ministry officials responsible for not taking any action on the President’s directive for over five months are fortunate that they are living in Sri Lanka where there is still some sort of democracy prevails. In a country like China or North Korea, they would have been probably summarily executed.

 

PRESIDENT’S DIRECTIVE ON ENHANCING RE SHARE

 

The President wanted his target of 70% of electricity generation from renewable energy (RE) sources achieved by 2030, that is in 10 years’ time. While this is not something impossible, it can be achieved provided the relevant authorities make a concerted effort beginning today (see writer’s pieces in the Island on 28th and 29th December 2020). In this exercise, it is not possible to make even a loss of 4-5% of time. That was why the President summoned a second meeting on 15.12.2020 when he found that no action was taken by the Ministries and their officials since his first meeting, he had with them 3 months before on 14.09.2020.

He categorically stressed at the second meeting that officials should be honest in their attitudes and expedite the exercise. Soon after, he appointed a former Army Official as the Vice Chairman of the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) to expedite CEB working on this matter. He even invited the Board of Investment Chairman to the second meeting and directed the CEB officials to work in collaboration with BOI to expedite granting approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) proposals submitted by investors.

 

RELUCTANCE OF OFFICERS TO FOLLOW PRESIDENT’ VERBAL DIRECTIVES

 

Though the President has said at a number of meetings he had at village level and also in his Independence Day speech that the public officers should act within the authority vested on them, without referring them to higher authorities, and that they should treat his announcements as circulars, there have been instances recently when officers who were attempting to do so being pulled up by their seniors. The case of the Deputy Conservator of Forests in Gampaha District who stopped felling a rare species of a tree is one such instance.

Another is a report appearing in the Island of 26.02.2021 that “Senior officers of the Department of Wildlife Conservation and Forest Department yesterday expressed concern over a directive that they should seek the State Ministry Secretary’s approval prior to taking legal actions against those who harm protected areas”. Hence, the President’s word will alone not move officers into action because they could fall into trouble after the present regime changes.

 

NEED TO AMEND THE GUIDELINES FOR ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY

 

Therefore, the President’s verbal directive has to be translated into a written memorandum drafted by the Power Ministry Secretary and presented to the Cabinet under the signature of the Power Minister enabling amending the current Guidelines to Electricity Industry by raining its present RE share to be achieved by 2030 from 50% to 70%. The Public Utilities Commission (PUCSL) will then be able to direct the CEB to prepare its Long-Term Generation Expansion (LTGE) Plan accordingly. This is the first step to be taken in planning for achieving the President’s target.

The question I raised in my piece in the Island of 19th was why hasn’t the Power Ministry done anything about it over the last 5 months. Was there any unseen hand holding back either the Secretary or the Minister from attending to this simple assignment? Was it the CEB management or its trade unions? Without addressing my question, Dr TS now talks about cost escalation if renewables are adopted in the future based on archaic PUCSL tariff. Isn’t this a “Yanne Koheda? Malle Pol” response?

 

NEW SOURCES OF FUNDNG FOR RENEWABLE PROJECTS

 

Everyone knows that electricity from clean RE sources, other than major hydro, costs more than from dirty fossil sources, despite the fact that RE projects do not burn any costly fuel and their average specific capital costs today are of the same order of magnitude as those of thermal power plants. This is because the average plant factor or the percentage time the plant operates during the day for RE plants such as solar and wind, is in the range 20-30% while for thermal power plants, it is in the range 70-90%. The low PF for RE plants is beyond our control as it depends on the geography and location of the country.

Solar power plants generate electricity only when sun shines on them and wind power plants generate electricity only when wind blows turning their turbines which could be internment both diurnally and seasonally. There is no such limitation in the case of thermal power plants. In working out the levelized cost of electricity (LCE), the power industry including experts like Dr. TS still uses the formula that LCE is the sum of the amortized capital cost, fuel cost and operation & maintenance (O&M) costs and divided by the total generation. So even if the fuel cost is zero with RE projects, the fact that their generation is low make them non-competitive compared to thermal power plants.

Now, if a third party meets the capital cost with no interest or any other pay back, the host country will have to meet only the O&M costs which will make RE projects financially viable. Dr TS regrettably appears to be not aware of this latest development in funding of renewable energy projects available today for developing countries, particularly after adoption of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in 2015.

 

KYOTO PROTOCOL ON

CLIMATE CHANGE

 

The 15th Conference of Parties (COP15) of the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNCCC), met in Copenhagen in November 2009 to decide on the future of the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change (KPCC) adopted in 1997 which made it mandatory for the developed countries to mitigate their emissions of Green-house Gases (GHGs) by specified amounts ranging up to 5% relative to their 1990 emission levels, within the five-year period 2008-12. The developing countries on the other hand were exempted from such a requirement except that they are required to adopt social and economic policies leading to GHG mitigation.

Several Parties including USA, Japan, Canada and Russia later withdrew from the KPCC on the grounds that industrialized developing countries like China and India who emit the major share of GHGs are exempted from any commitments to mitigate. However, at every COP meeting, both China and India vehemently objected to any attempt to draw them into KPCC commitments, saying that on per capita basis, both China and India rank at the bottom. At one COP meeting, the Indian delegate said their emissions are emissions of survival rather than emissions of affluence as in developed countries.

At the COP15, there were several resolutions submitted by various Parties proposing the extents by which developed country Parties should be made to mitigate their emissions and the time frames. As is done in similar instances, the Chair appointed a small group comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) to study the proposals and make recommendations to the Plenary for adoption by it, after debate. After lengthy negotiations, the Group came to an agreement that EU Parties will enhance their commitments, but all developing countries will remain uncommitted.

 

PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

 

When the meeting which was held behind closed doors was about to close towards mid-night of the last day of COP15, an unprecedented event took place. America’s President Barack Obama barged into the room unannounced (which only President Obama could have done), where he did not even have a chair to sit. He intervened to say that he was willing to mobilize USD 100 billion annually up to 2020 from developed countries, both public and private sector, for assisting developing countries to undertake RE projects, provided they agree to make voluntary commitments both in amounts and time frames.

He further told others that even the developed countries need not undertake mandatory commitments but only undertake voluntary commitments. Both China and India who were members of the BRICS Committee fell for this carrot, who were hitherto vehemently protesting making any mitigation commitments, gave their consent to Obama’s offer. That event gave birth to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (PACC). However, it took 6 more years for the text of the Paris Agreement to get adopted by Nations at COP21 held in Paris. The motive for President Obama making his proposal came out during his speech he made at the Plenary of COP21 when he said that America would undertake emission reductions the way they wanted to and not the way others wanted to.

 

GREEN CLIMATE FUND

 

During the COP21 itself, many heads of states pledged for providing finances during 2016-2020, totaling USD 48 billion. Among the key contributors were Japan (USD 10B), EU (USD 11B), UK (USD 8.7B), France (USD 6.6B), Italy (USD 4 B) and USA (USD 4B) (UNFCCC website). It is noteworthy that USA which spearhead the abolition of mandatory emission reductions by developed countries and getting developing countries on board with them, made only a paltry USD 4 billion contributions up to 2020. Though USA withdrew from the PACC during President Donald Trump’s tenure, President Joe Biden has assured USA’s commitment to PACC.

The UNFCCC established the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in 2010 to collect funds from developed countries and disburse them among developing countries on the basis of proposals submitted by them for adaptation and mitigation projects, following their guidelines. The GCF has disbursed funds among 150 projects up to end of 2020 for both adaptation and mitigation projects. Some of the recent disbursements for mitigation projects are given in Table 1.

 

Table 1. Some recent disbursements made by GCF for mitigation

CountryProjectGrant

USDGHG saved

MtCO2Approved DateIndia250 MW R/T solar 250 M5.2March 2018Zambia200 MW Solar PV154 M4.0March 2018Congo300 MW Solar PV with storage89 M0.51Oct 2018Nigeria400 MW solar PV467 M9.5Feb 2019Six in Africa214 MW solar PV150 M4.82019BangladeshEnergy efficiency in apparel industries340 M14.5Nov 2020

In addition, several multilateral banks operating in Asia, Africa and globally pledged finances up to USD 160 billion by 2020. Only a few projects are listed to save space. An interested reader may visit GCF website for a complete list at .

 

SRI LANKA’S SITUATION

 

To date, Sri Lanka has received funding from the GCF only for two adaptation projects described in Table 2.

Table 2. Adaptation Projects approved by GCF for Sri Lanka

Implementing AgencyProjectGrant

USDAffected CommunityApproved DateUNDPImproving resiliency of small holder dry zone farmers cultivating under village irrigation schemes52 M2.0 MJune 2016IUCNImproving resiliency of subsistence farmers in Knuckes Mountain Range49 M1.3 MMarch 2020

As for mitigation projects, Sri Lanka has not even prepared a country programme identifying projects to be submitted seeking funding even though discussions were being held during past few years. It is indeed a sad situation, which the President should look into, as this directly affects implementation of RE projects necessary to achieve his target. The responsibility for submitting project proposals to the GCF seeking funding lies with the Ministry of Environment which serves as the national focal point for UNFCCC.

It is a pity while least developed countries in Africa have managed to secure hundreds of million Dollars funding for implementing RE projects from international sources, Sri Lanka has not even identified suitable projects to seek funding. One reason could be that the country has too many organizations handling RE projects and sourcing funding and there isn’t any coordination among them. These include the Power Ministry, Renewable Energy Ministry, Environment Ministry, CEB, SLSEA, PUCSL and AG Department. The writer has written extensively on their conflicts both in the Island and other media and do not wish to repeat them here.

 

CONCLUSION

 

Dr TS has totally misunderstood the problem I posed in my letter to the Island of 19.02.2021 and writes a nonsensical response. He seems to turn a blind eye to the happenings at the Power Ministry and CEB for reasons best known to him. He should also be aware of the sources of funding available for implanting RE projects before making such statements that with losses incurred in selling electricity below cost for 10 years will surpass the money required to purchase COVID vaccines.

Since sourcing of funds for RE projects is critical for achieving the President’s target, he should look into the affairs of these organizations to streamline their activities with a view to expediting sourcing of funds. He should offer golden hand-shake to those who decline to cooperate.

 



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Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers

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For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.

One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.

Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.

“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”

Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.

Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.

From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.

His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.

This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.

“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”

The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.

Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.

It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.

“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”

That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.

The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”

The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.

Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.

“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”

That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.

In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”

His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.

This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.

“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.

Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.

“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”

In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.

By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.

By Ifham Nizam ✍️

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AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap

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This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.

There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.

The Need for Immediate Action

AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.

“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”

Training Teachers and Students

Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.

Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.

Benefits of AI in Education

AI in schools offers numerous advantages:

· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills

· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness

· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy

· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics

· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences

· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition

AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.

Risks and Challenges

Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:

· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information

· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions

· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes

· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation

Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.

Global and Local Perspectives

In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.

The Way Forward

Experts urge swift action:

· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.

· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.

· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.

“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”

As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.

BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com

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The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad

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Protests and a vigil have been held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where the shooting of Renee Nicole Good occurred on Wednesday (photo courtesy BBC)

The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.

Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.

Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.

Restive America

Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.

But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.

Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.

After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.

The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.

In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.

It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.

Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.

But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.

An Obliging World

To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.

Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.

After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.

The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.

But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.

More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.

Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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