Business

Fitch upgrades Sri Lanka to ‘CCC+’

Published

12 months ago

2024/12/23

Says there’s no foreign-currency bond maturities until 2029

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC+’, from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default). Fitch typically does not assign an Outlook to sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC+’ or below.

Fitch has also upgraded the Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC+’, from ‘CCC-‘, to align with the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR, as the risk of another default on local-currency debt has been reduced by the completion of the international sovereign bond restructuring and an improved outlook for macroeconomic indicators. Sri Lanka completed the local-currency portion of its domestic debt optimisation in September 2023, following the exchange of treasury bills and provisional advances held by Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s into new treasury bonds and bills.

The upgrade of the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR reflects Fitch’s assessment that Sri Lanka has normalised relations with a majority of creditors, after the announcement of final results of the invitation to exchange the outstanding stock of international sovereign bonds with a 98% participation rate. One bond series with non-aggregated collective action clauses did not meet the required 75% level. Without this bond series, the acceptance results imply a restructuring of 96% of total commercial external debt.

The debt exchange will convert 11 international sovereign bonds and accumulated past due interest (PDI) into a mix of four macro-linked bonds, one governance-linked bond and one PDI bond. Bondholders can choose the local alternative governed by domestic law, with rupee-denominated bonds and a US dollar bond with step-up coupon payments.

Sri Lanka is also restructuring debt to commercial and official creditors. An agreement in principle has been reached with most commercial creditors including international banks for an amount of about USD200 million. Restructuring of debt owed to official creditors is expected to be completed by end-2024.

Improved External Finances: Sri Lanka’s foreign-currency debt restructuring offers substantial upfront debt repayment relief, with no foreign-currency bond maturities until 2029. The first amortisation on the macro-linked bonds, which have low coupon rates until 2032, starts from 2029. Governance linked bond amortisation begins in 2034 and the US-dollar step-up bonds start amortisation in 2029. We expect foreign-exchange reserves to reach USD8.7 billion by 2026, also reflecting debt relief over the period.

The debt restructuring has reduced the government’s debt service burden and liquidity risks, but general government debt/GDP and the interest/revenue ratio are likely to stay high in the medium term. The restructuring under Fitch’s baseline assumptions lowers general government debt/GDP to about 90% by 2028, while Fitch forecasts the interest/revenue ratio to decline to 42%, still well above the ‘CCC’ median of 16%. This is, however, a large drop from the 67% in 2021, prior to the sovereign default.

Sri Lanka has a weak long-term revenue raising record, but the government implemented several major tax measures to boost revenue collection and achieve debt sustainability. Fitch expects general government revenue/GDP to exceed 15% by 2026, from 11% in 2023, broadly in line with IMF programme projections. Downside risks could be substantial if the government fails to raise revenue.

Strong Mandate from Election Outcome: Sri Lanka’s September 2024 presidential election was won by a leader of the opposition National People’s Power, which secured over two-thirds majority in the legislature. Fitch expects the new government to support progress on reforms. The new government has said it will continue to implement the 48-month IMF extended fund facility, which began in March 2023. Sri Lanka has made major progress on the programme under the previous government.

Sri Lanka’s economy is recovering after a contraction in 2022 and 2023. In seasonally adjusted terms, real GDP growth in 3Q24 recovered to 5.2%, after contracting by 7.4% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023. This was driven by an 11.1% pick-up in industrial growth, while services grew by about 2.8%. We expect growth to recover to 4.1% in 2024 and average 3.6% over 2025-2026.

The Central Bank’s policy measures have largely reversed a rise in inflation, which peaked in September 2022 at 67.2% (seasonally adjusted). Inflation continues to decline, falling to -2.1% yoy in November 2024. The central bank has eased monetary policy significantly, reducing the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 800 bp since June 2023. Fitch expects further easing over 2025-2026, in line with its expectation that underlying inflationary pressure will remain muted and the central bank will meet its medium-term inflation target of 5.0%.

Economic reforms implemented since the crisis period have improved headline macroeconomic metrics, reduced systemic risks and support banks’ operating flexibility. Asset quality stress has peaked and declining credit costs are driving higher profitability. Pressure on foreign- and local-currency funding and liquidity has eased on better external flows and banks’ efforts to preserve liquidity. Fitch expects banks to regain access to foreign-currency wholesale funding, following the restoration of the sovereign’s creditworthiness.

Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights as well as for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch’s proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM). Sri Lanka has a medium WBGI ranking in the 38th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.

Factors that could, Individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade

-Public Finances: An increase in government debt/GDP, potentially reflecting an inability to further raise revenue, resulting in wider budget deficits.

– External Finances: Inability to rebuild foreign-exchange reserves that weakens debt repayment capacity.

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Business

Ceylon Chamber partners with members and relief agencies to deliver Cyclone Ditwah relief

Published

18 hours ago

2025/12/12

Thilina Walpola

In response to the devastating impact of Cyclone Ditwah, The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce has been actively supporting national relief and recovery operations in collaboration with the Government of Sri Lanka, key partners, and its members.

As a co-chair of the Sri Lanka Preparedness Partnership (SLPP) alongside the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), the Ceylon Chamber together with Janathakshan, played a central role in coordinating emergency response efforts, ensuring rapid and efficient assistance to affected communities. From 28 November to 6 December 2025, the Chamber mobilised volunteers across the Chamber Secretariat, member companies MAS Capital Pvt. Ltd – Intimates Division, Aitken Spence PLC, and university student groups, contributing more than 190 hours of service and answering over 40,000 emergency assistance requests to support the DMC’s 24-hour Emergency Operations Center.

The Chamber also provided support to the DMC for the Rapid Disaster Needs Assessment (RDNA), assisting with data analysis of calls received and the development of the direct community needs component of the RDNA, which informed government planning and coordination of relief distribution.

With the generous support of its member companies, the Ceylon Chamber facilitated the collection and handing over of financial aid and essential relief items to affected areas. The Chamber is deeply appreciative of Aitken Spence PLC, BASF Lanka (Pvt) Ltd.. CDK Philip Hospital, Central Finance Company PLC, Cinnamon Hotels & Resorts, Devi Trading Company, Eastern Merchants PLC, Emar Pharma Pvt. Ltd., Finagle Lanka Pvt.Ltd., H Connect International Pvt. Ltd., Hemas Manufacturing (Pvt) Ltd., John Keells-Cinnamon Life, John Keells Holdings, John Keells Properties, Lakdhanavi, Lauke Shipping, Oxford College of Business, Perera & Sons, Shanthi Textile, Union Assurance PLC, Union Bank of Colombo PLC, Walkers Tours, Wealthtrust Securities Ltd., and a large number of private donors, both individuals and companies, for heeding the nation’s call, supporting communities and industries hardest hit by Cyclone Ditwah, and contributing to ongoing recovery and rebuilding efforts across the country.

Beyond immediate relief, the Chamber continues to support preparedness initiatives ahead of the North East Monsoon Season 2025, reinforcing resilience and readiness across the country.

“We are deeply grateful to our member companies and volunteers for stepping up in this critical time – demonstrating once again that the private sector has and will continue to play a strong and supportive role in ensuring stability and sustainability for Sri Lanka at all times’, said Krishan Balendra, Chairperson of the Ceylon Chamber.

Business

Fluctuating fortunes for bourse in the wake of selling pressure

Published

18 hours ago

2025/12/12

Thilina Walpola

The CSE kicked off yesterday on a bullish sentiment, but by the middle of the session it turned negative due to heavy selling pressure. Later, though, it returned to positive territory, market analysts said.

There was satisfactory buying pressure latterly, both in retail and institutional entities, following the return to normalcy of economic activities driven by international support for rebuilding the country.

Amid those developments both indices moved upwards. The All Share Price Index went up by 60.33 points while S and P SL20 was up by 11.67 points. Turnover stood at Rs 5.55 billion with nine crossings.

Top seven crossings were: Sunshine Holdings 13.6 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 462 million and its shares traded at Rs 35, JKH 9.5 million shares crossed for Rs 198 million; its shares traded at Rs 21, Laugfs Gas (Non-Voting) 1.2 million shares crossed for Rs 73.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 61 Tokyo Cement (Non-Voting) 730,000 shares crossed tfor Rs 66.1 million; its shares traded at Rs 87, Commercial Bank 185,000 shares crossed for Rs 37 million and its shares sold at Rs 200, Access Engineering 300,000 shares crossed for Rs 23.1 million; its shares sold at Rs 77 and Laugfs Gas 300,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 22.4 million; its shares sold at Rs 73.90.

In the retail market top seven companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Colombo Dockyard Rs 485 million (two million shares traded), JKH Rs 468 million (22.4 million shares traded), Dialog Axiata Rs 245 million (8.4 million shares traded), Sunshine Holdings Rs 198 million (5.7 million shares traded), ACL Cables Rs 122 million (481,000 shares traded) and Lanka Credit Business and Finance Rs 108.5 million (11.4 million shares traded). During the day 171 million shares volumes changed hands in 34388 transactions.

It is said that manufacturing sector counters, especially JKH and Sunshine Holdings, led the market while the banking sector also fared reasonably well, especially Commercial Bank. The telecommunication sector, mainly Dialog Axiata, also performed well.

Meanwhile, Cargills Bank is looking to raise Rs 2.5 billion through a rights issue of shares at Rs 8.50 each to support lending activities.

It also will issue 294,200,000 ordinary voting shares at a ratio of 14 new ordinary shares for every 45 existing ordinary shares. The issue is expected to raise Rs 2,500,700,000 in capital, CSE sources said.

Yesterday, the rupee was quoted at Rs 308.95/309/05 to the US dollar in the spot market, weaker from Rs 308.80/90 the previous day, dealers said, while bond yields dropped significantly.

A bond maturing on 15.02.2028 was quoted at 9.05/15 percent, down from 9.15/20 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.09.2029 was quoted at 9.50/52 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.07.2030 was quoted at 9.55/65 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.12.2032 was quoted at 10.20/30 percent, down from 10.25/30 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.06.2035 closed at 10.63/70 percent.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

Business

HNB tops TAB Global Ranking as “Sri Lanka’s Strongest Bank”

Published

18 hours ago

2025/12/12

Thilina Walpola

HNB PLC, the leading private bank in Sri Lanka, has been awarded the title of Strongest Bank in Sri Lanka for 2025 by TAB Global. The recognition was confirmed following the release of the TAB Global World’s 1000 Largest and Strongest Banks Rankings, with the announcement made recently

HNB’s Managing Director / CEO, Damith Pallewatte, stated that the accolade underscores the bank’s unwavering commitment to sustained financial strength and strategic resilience. “This honour shows the resilience and clarity of purpose that guide our institution. Our teams advanced through demanding cycles with discipline and accountability. The recognition confirms the trust placed in us by customers, investors and partners and it reinforces the duty we carry as a leading private bank. We remain fully committed to safeguarding long-term strength while contributing to Sri Lanka’s economic advancement with integrity and resolve.”

HNB achieves a landmark distinction in the 2025 rankings, establishing itself as Sri Lanka’s strongest bank. The assessment highlights HNB’s balance sheet quality, prudent risk discipline and the bank’s consistent ability to maintain stability through varied economic conditions. The ranking places HNB alongside leading global financial institutions acknowledged for sustained strength, institutional reliability and capacity to absorb external shocks.

Foo Boon Ping, President and Managing Editor at TAB Global, stated: “HNB demonstrated strong fundamentals and consistent delivery across multiple stress indicators. The bank’s performance placed it ahead of its domestic peers and aligned it with institutions recognised for structural strength. The ranking reflects measurable outcomes drawn from transparent criteria.”