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VAT hike in Sri Lanka: Who really pays the price?

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VAT as a Share of Income - 2023 vs 2024 Source: Author’s calculations, based on HIES-2019 data from the DCS.

The recent VAT revisions have hit the poorest the hardest, whereas the bottom 10% of income group households now spend about 10% of their income on VAT.

The VAT burden has risen by approximately 50%, primarily due to theremoval of VAT exemptions on around 100 items.

This blog offers potential solutions for easing the VAT burden in Sri Lanka.

Priyanka Jayawardena is a Research Economist at IPS with research interests in skills and education, demographics, health, and labour markets. Priyanka has around 15 years of research experience at IPS. She has worked as a consultant to international organisations including World Bank, ADB and UNICEF. She holds a BSc (Hons) specialised in Statistics and an MA in Economics, both from the University of Colombo. (Talk with Priyanka – priyanka@ips.lk)

By Priyanka Jayawardena

Earlier this year, Sri Lanka introduced major changes to the Value Added Tax (VAT) system. The VAT rate increased from 15% to 18%, and tax exemptions were removed for 97 items, including essential goods such as gas and stationery. While these revisions aimed to boost government revenue, they have also significantly increased the tax burden on low-income households, making life even more challenging for the most vulnerable during this ongoing crisis. This blog offers a comprehensive overview of the recent VAT revision and potential solutions for easing the VAT burden in Sri Lanka.

The Rise in VAT Burden

The VAT rate hike from 15% to 18% has translated into a 20% rise in VAT payments overall. A VAT simulation analysis based on Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2019 data reveals that when combined with the removal of tax exemptions, the average VAT burden has increased by about 50%. However, this burden is not evenly distributed. The poorest 40% of households face an approximate 60% rise in VAT payments, while other income groups experience around a 50% increase.

Who Bears the Brunt of the VAT Revision?

The harshest impact of these VAT revisions has fallen on the lowest-income households. The bottom 10% of households now pay around 10% of their income as VAT, up from 6% under the previous VAT system (Figure 1). In comparison, other households spend about 6% of their income on VAT payments​. This disproportionate impact is primarily due to the removal of tax exemptions on widely-use items, which are essential for all.

Indirect Taxes as a Share of Income
Source: Author’s calculations, based on HIES-2019 data from the DCS.

Removing VAT exemptions on 97 items out of the previously exempted 138 has made essential purchases more expensive. Low-income households typically allocate a greater portion of their budgets to essential items that were previously exempted from VAT but are now taxed. These include fuel, gas, telecommunication services, as well as various food products made from locally cultivated grains, locally produced coconut milk, and certain locally produced dairy products.

Comparing VAT with Other Indirect Taxes

VAT applies to a wide range of goods and services, affecting all consumers. However, its impact is regressive, taking a larger proportion of income from poorer households compared to richer ones (Figure 2). In contrast, excise taxes on products like alcohol and tobacco are less burdensome on lower-income groups. The top 20% of households contribute 43% of alcohol taxes and 44% of tobacco taxes, while the bottom 40% of households account for 19% of alcohol taxes and 14% of tobacco taxes. Additionally, VAT applies to basic commodities that everyone needs, whereas excise taxes apply to tobacco and alcohol, which are harmful products that contribute to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In this sense, higher taxes on tobacco and alcohol act like an upfront investment in public health, helping to offset future healthcare costs.

What Can Be Done?

While the VAT hike was designed to stabilise Sri Lanka’s finances, it disproportionately affects vulnerable populations. This highlights the need for more balanced and fair fiscal policies. A more equitable approach would ensure that taxation doesn’t disproportionately affect those least able to afford it, preserving economic fairness during difficult times. Addressing the uneven impact of VAT requires exploring policy alternatives, such as reintroducing exemptions for essential goods if necessary. Increasing excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol is a favourable policy option. This could help create a more just system while reducing long-term healthcare expenses.



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NSB Group delivers Rs.22.5bn operating profit in 1H 2026 as lending and core income strengthen

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Dr. Harsha Cabral / Rohana Bandara Weerakoon

National Savings Bank Group (NSB) recorded resilient core banking performance during the first six months of 2026, supported by stronger net interest income, a notable expansion in fee-based earnings and continued growth in loans and advances. The results demonstrate the Bank’s capacity to maintain business momentum while navigating cost pressures and volatility in market-related income.

The Bank reported total operating income of Rs. 45.8 billion for the period, an increase of 3.1% compared with Rs. 44.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. Net operating income increased by 2.3% to Rs. 49.1 billion from Rs. 48 billion reported a year ago, providing a stable foundation for the Bank’s operations and customer-focused growth agenda.

Net interest income rose by 5.5% year-on-year to Rs. 44.2 billion, compared with Rs. 41.9 billion in the first half of 2025. This improvement was supported by a 4.7% reduction in interest expenses to Rs. 54.5 billion, despite a marginal moderation in interest income to Rs. 98.6 billion. The result reflects disciplined balance-sheet management and the Bank’s continued focus on maintaining a sustainable funding and asset mix.

The Bank also achieved substantial growth in fee-based earnings. Net fee and commission income increased by 37.0% to Rs. 1.40 billion, from Rs. 1.02 billion a year earlier. The increase underlines the growing contribution from transaction-led services and the Bank’s ongoing efforts to broaden non-interest revenue through customer-centric and digitally enabled banking solutions.

Profit before Tax (PBT) amounted to Rs. 22.6 billion, compared with Rs. 24.1 billion in the first half of 2025, while profit after tax stood at Rs. 13.4 billion, compared with Rs. 14.7 billion. The moderation in profitability principally reflected higher operating costs and the lower contribution from trading and derecognition gains. Personnel expenses increased to Rs. 13.8 billion from Rs. 11.5 billion, while other operating expenses rose to Rs. 4.3 billion from Rs. 4.1 billion.

Despite these pressures, the Bank preserved a substantial earnings base and continued to invest in the people, systems and service capabilities required to improve operational resilience and the customer experience. Income tax for the period amounted to Rs. 9.14 billion, while VAT and the Social Security Contribution Levy on financial services together exceeded Rs. 7.29 billion. In addition, the Bank declared a dividend of Rs. 7.4 billion to the Government as its sole shareholder. Accordingly, NSB’s total contribution to the Government through dividends, taxes and levies amounted to Rs. 23.8 billion, underscoring the Bank’s significant contribution to public finances and national development.

Commenting on the results, National Savings Bank Chairman Dr. Harsha Cabral PC said: “The first-half results reflect the resilience of NSB’s core business model and the enduring confidence placed in the Bank by generations of Sri Lankans. Our priority remains the prudent stewardship of public savings while supporting productive economic activity, financial inclusion and sustainable national development.”

NSB’s total assets increased by 2.1% during the first six months of the year to Rs. 1.87 trillion, from Rs. 1.83 trillion at end-December 2025. Loans and advances recorded a strong 9.1% expansion to Rs. 601.01 billion from Rs. 550.83 billion, demonstrating the Bank’s continued support for the financing needs of individuals, households and eligible institutional customers within its mandate.

Deposits, the principal source of funding for NSB, increased by 1.5% to Rs. 1.63 trillion from Rs. 1.61 trillion. The sustained growth in the deposit base reflects continued public confidence in the Bank and provides a stable platform for its savings-led business model. The Bank’s financial position remained sound, with total shareholders’ equity increasing by 4.1% to Rs. 123.91 billion from Rs. 119.05 billion. Retained earnings rose by 12.4% to Rs. 52.34 billion, further strengthening the Bank’s capacity to support future growth and absorb potential shocks.

Acting General Manager/CEO of National Savings Bank, Mr. Rohana Bandara Weerakoon, said: “Our focus is on translating the Bank’s trusted savings franchise into sustainable customer value. The growth achieved in lending, fee income and shareholder’s equity is encouraging. We will continue to strengthen digital access, service quality, cost discipline and risk management while delivering on NSB’s national mandate.”

The Bank’s profitability indicators continued to reflect the strength of its core banking activities, although higher operating expenses moderated overall returns. The net interest margin improved to 4.81% from 4.74% at the end of 2025, demonstrating an improvement in the Bank’s core interest spread. Return on assets before tax remained broadly stable at 2.46%, compared with 2.48%, while return on equity stood at 22.30%, compared with 25.08% at the end of 2025.

Asset quality improved during the first half of 2026. The net Stage 3 loans ratio declined to 2.05% from 2.52% at the end of 2025, indicating a reduction in net impaired credit exposures relative to the loan portfolio. At the same time, the Stage 3 impairment coverage ratio strengthened to 59.77% from 58.54%, reflecting improved impairment coverage against Stage 3 loans.

NSB maintained capital buffers comfortably above the applicable regulatory minimum requirements. The Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 19.72%, compared with the regulatory minimum of 8.5%, while the total capital ratio stood at 21.1%, well above the minimum requirement of 12.5%. These ratios demonstrate the Bank’s capacity to absorb potential risks while supporting continued business growth.

The Bank also maintained a strong liquidity and stable funding position. The all-currency liquidity coverage ratio stood at 311.88%, substantially above the statutory minimum of 100%, reflecting the availability of sufficient high-quality liquid assets to meet short-term liquidity requirements. The net stable funding ratio stood at 196.17%, also comfortably above the regulatory minimum of 100%, demonstrating the stability of the Bank’s longer-term funding profile.

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Petrol price reduction boosts ASPI

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By Hiran H. Senewiratne

CSE data indicated yesterday that the benchmark All Share Price Index moved up 0.11 percent mainly due to the petrol price reduction among some categories of fuel, market analysts opined.

Despite the lingering tensions in West Asia the market performed well.

The ASPI was up 22.93 points at 21,338.84, while the more liquid S&P SL20 was up 0.22 percent, or 13.03 points, at 6,018.37.

Market turnover was Rs 1.014 billion. Capital goods led turnover with Rs 300.64 million. During the day two crossings took place. Those crossings were reported in Access Engineering 1 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 75 million and its shares traded at Rs 75 and Sierra Cables 850,000 shares crossed for Rs 31 million; its shares traded at Rs 36.70.

In the retail market, companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Sierra Cables Rs 77 million (2 million shares traded), Brown’s Investments Rs 68 million (13.3 million shares traded), CCS Rs 60 million (494,000 shares traded), Citizens Development Bank Rs 30 million (866,000 shares traded), Overseas Realty Rs 27 million (513,000 shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 26 million (185,000 shares traded) and Commercial Credit and Finance Rs 24 million (217,000 shares traded). During the day 51 million share volumes changed hands in 15669 transactions.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were; Browns Investments (up 8.16 percent at Rs 5.30 ), Carson Cumberbatch (up 4.13 percent at Rs 749.50 ), Windforce (up 4.63 percent at Rs 40.70 ), JKH (up 0.51 percent at Rs 19.90 ) and DFCC Bank (up 0.99 percent at Rs 128.00 ).

Vallibel One (down 2.64 percent at Rs 88.50 ), Melstacorp (down 0.52 percent at Rs 190.00 ), and Hatton National Bank (down 0.33 percent at Rs 380.25 ) were top negative contributors.

Ceylon Land & Equity announced a proposed first and final scrip dividend of Rs 0.043 per ordinary share for the financial year ended March 31, 2026, subject to shareholder approval at its Annual General Meeting on September 23, 2026.

The dividend involves capitalizing Rs 39.61 million to issue 4,553,230 new ordinary shares at a consideration of Rs 8.70 per share, in the proportion of 1 new share for every 202.33 existing shares.

Shares of Ceylon Land & Equity closed down 1.16 percent at Rs 8.50.

Maharaja Foods announced a final scrip dividend of Rs 0.10 per ordinary share for the financial year ended March 31.

Following a 15 percent withholding tax deduction, the net dividend entitlement of Rs 0.085 per share will be satisfied by issuing 730,468 new ordinary shares at a consideration of Rs 16.00 per share, in the proportion of 1 new share for every 188.2354873861 existing shares held.

Shares of Maharaja Foods were trading up 0.61 percent at Rs16.50.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 327.68/75 to the US dollar in the spot market, stronger from Rs 327.98/328.04 Friday, while bond yields were broadly steady, dealers said.

The telegraphic transfer rate for the dollar was 323.50 buying, 332.50 selling; the euro was 372.5779 buying, 386.3587 selling; and the pound was 437.1858 buying, 451.2942 selling.

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A huge welcoming ‘Yes’ to Ai-CHA

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Ai-CHA, the Indonesian origin, ice cream and bubble tea brand is establishing itself as an irresistible, super-cooling refreshment among consumers in the bustling coastal town of Negombo, besides proving a big hit among other Sri Lankan urban populations as well. The numbers visiting the initial Ai-CHA ice cream parlour in Negombo is solid evidence that the ice cream brand is proving a crowd-puller of the first magnitude.

Ai-CHA Ice cream and bubble tea is already present in over 2000 locations world wide and has made striking inroads into global consumer palettes. Referred to as ‘a popular international soft-serve ice cream and bubble tea brand’, these ideal thirst quenches are made of high quality ingredients such as, milk, milk powder, cream, sugar and water. The prices are purse-easy and affordable.

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