The latest Global Economic Prospects report from the World Bank forecasts a 2.2 percent growth for Sri Lanka’s economy in 2024, marking a positive revision of 0.5 percentage points from January. This upward revision is attributed to gradual improvements in remittances and tourism.

The June edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report highlights that tourism and remittances have rebounded following the economic contraction in 2023. However, both sectors remain below pre-pandemic levels.

The report states, “In Sri Lanka, the economy is expected to expand by 2.2 percent in 2024—a 0.5-percentage-point upward revision from January—supported by modest recoveries in remittances and tourism. Growth is projected to strengthen further in 2025-26, reaching 3 percent in 2026, assuming successful debt restructuring negotiations and the implementation of structural reforms, which would offset the adverse impact of planned fiscal consolidation on growth.

“After contracting in 2023, economic activity has strengthened in Sri Lanka, with tourism and remittances also recovering, although they have remained below pre-pandemic levels.

“The report also forecasts a slowdown in growth for the South Asia (SAR) region, from 6.6 percent in 2023 to 6.2 percent in 2024, mainly due to a moderation in India’s growth from recent highs. Regional growth is expected to remain steady at 6.2 percent in 2025-26, supported by stable growth in India. Among other economies in the region, Bangladesh is expected to maintain robust growth, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years, while growth is set to strengthen in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. However, the outlook is clouded by downside risks, including disruptions in commodity markets due to escalating conflicts, potential abrupt fiscal consolidations, financial instability from high bank exposure to sovereign borrowers, extreme weather events, and slower-than-expected growth in China and Europe. Conversely, upside risks include stronger-than-expected activity in the United States and faster global disinflation.

“Several factors have contributed to reductions in external imbalances, such as narrowed trade deficits, increased remittances, and tourism recoveries across multiple countries. Additionally, continued import restrictions, particularly in Bangladesh, have played a role. Foreign exchange reserves have risen in countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka, reflecting eased currency pressures and increased official flows, although reserves remain low in some nations.

“In the SAR region, economic spillovers from outside are generally limited due to lower international trade openness compared to other global regions. However, weaker-than-projected growth in major trading partners could dampen growth in countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. For instance, a significant portion of intermediate goods imports in these countries comes from China, and any downturn in Chinese activity could lead to material shortages and reduced economic activity.

“Upside risks to regional growth include stronger-than-expected activity in the United States, which could stimulate growth in large exporting countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Another potential upside is greater progress in global inflation reduction, potentially leading to faster-than-expected easing of monetary policy, lower borrowing costs, and improved growth prospects.”