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The Caspian Sea is set to fall by 9 metres or more this century – an ecocide is imminent

Published

6 years ago

2020/12/26

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image of the Caspian Sea, left, on June 4, 2010. The map on the right shows the impact of Caspian Sea level projections of -30 feet and -60 feet at the end of the 21st century. Red regions fall dry.(NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team / Map by Prange, M., Wilke, T. & Wesselingh, F.P. The other side of sea level change.)

Imagine you are on the coast, looking out to sea. In front of you lies 100 metres of barren sand that looks like a beach at low tide with gentle waves beyond. And yet there are no tides.

This is what we found when we visited the small harbour of Liman, on the Caspian Sea coast of Azerbaijan. The Caspian is actually a lake, the largest in the world and it is experiencing a devastating decline in its water level that is about to accelerate. By the end of the century the Caspian Sea will be nine metres to 18 metres lower. That’s a depth considerably taller than most houses.

It means the lake will lose at least 25 per cent of its former size, uncovering 93,000 sq km of dry land. If that new land were a country, it would be the size of Portugal.

As we found in our new research, the crisis may well result in an ecocide as devastating as the one in the Aral Sea, a few hundred kilometres to the east. The Caspian’s surface is already dropping by 7 cm every year, a trend likely to increase.

In five years, it might be about 40 cm lower than today and in ten years almost one metre lower. Maritime countries worldwide are coming to terms with one metre or so of sea level rise by the end of the century. The Caspian Sea faces a drop of that size — except it will happen within a decade.

Climate change is the culprit. The Caspian Sea waters are isolated, its surface is already around 28 metres below global oceans. Its level is the product of how much water is flowing in from rivers, mostly the mighty Volga to the north, how much it rains and how much evaporates away.

At the end of the century, the Volga and other northern rivers will still be there. However, a projected temperature rise of about 3? to 4? in the region will drive evaporation through the roof.

Future misery despite past crises

The Caspian Sea has a history of violent rises and falls. In Derbent, on the Caucasus coast of Russia, submerged ancient city walls testify to how low the sea was in medieval times. Around 10,000 years ago, the Caspian was about 100 metres lower. A few thousand years before that it was about 50 metres higher than today and even overspilled into the Black Sea.

Yet people who lived beside the sea were able to overcome the swings. No human infrastructure was around to be destroyed and many animal species simply moved up and down with the sea levels, as they had done over the past 2 million years or so. But this time is different. The fall will affect the Caspian’s unique and already stressed animal and plant life, along with human societies along the coasts.

In some areas, the coastline is about to retract hundreds of metres a year or more. Can you imagine building new piers and harbours that fast? By the time they are ready, the sea will have moved kilometres or tens of kilometres further away. Coastal promenades will soon be landlocked. The beaches of today will be the sand ridges stranded in barren plains of tomorrow.

The drop will also affect lowland rivers and deltas around the Caspian Sea. Once-fertile plains will become too dry for watermelon and rice farming to continue.

Unique Caspian life in peril

The town of Ramsar, on the Iranian coast, gave its name to a global wetland convention. But as the sea recedes, the town is becoming landlocked and the surrounding wetlands will be gone within decades.

The shallower “shelves” of the northern and eastern Caspian are major food supplies for fish and birds, yet the entire northern and eastern shelves will transform in dry barren lands. This will devastate fish species, the Caspian seal and a richness of molluscs and crustaceans species unique to the sea.

These Caspian inhabitants have already suffered badly in the past century from pollution, poaching and invasive species. About 99 per cent of Caspian seal pups are raised on the winter ice of the north Caspian. Yet both the winter ice and indeed the whole north Caspian will disappear.

Remaining biodiversity hotspots in depths between 50 metres and 150 metres will be affected as rivers dump nutrients into the deeper central basins combined with rising temperatures. This will decrease oxygen levels and developing ecological dead zones could affect the remaining refuges of Caspian species. A genuine ecocide is around the corner.

The situation cries for action, but possibilities are limited. Rising global CO2 levels, the main driver of climate conditions causing the Caspian crisis, can only be dealt with global agreements. In Soviet times, large scale water diversions from Siberian rivers were proposed to deal with the shrinking Aral Sea to the east. But such large works — in the case of the Caspian Sea, a canal from the Black Sea might be considered — come with huge ecological and geopolitical risks.

Yet action is necessary to safeguard the Caspian Sea’s unique plants and animals and the livelihood of the people who live around it. The stranded small harbour in Liman is further from the sea every year. If no action is taken, it will be left alone in more than one way.

(The Conversation)

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Published

10 hours ago

2026/09/10

Sahan Weerasooriya

GL / Harshana

Opp. lashes out at Justice Minister for disparaging remarks about CLA

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The Joint Opposition yesterday (09) tore into Justice and National Integration Minister Harsha Nanayakkara over some disparaging remarks about the Commonwealth Lawyers Association (CLA) in Parliament on Tuesday (08).

The Convenor of the Opposition grouping, former Law Professor Peiris questioned Minister Nanayakkara’s declaration that the CLA was a private club that granted membership on payments received. Emphasising that the CLA consisted of those in the legal profession in Commonwealth countries, Prof. Peiris told the weekly media briefing at the Flower Road Office of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe that the views expressed by the organisation couldn’t be discarded under any circumstances.

Prof. Peiris dealt with Nanayakkara’s response to the CLA’S concerns about several issues, including the composition of the five-member panel of judges. “How could Minister Nanayakkara dismiss concerns raised by CLA on the basis of the paid-membership of the organisation?” Prof. Peiris asked. If membership became an issue, the government would have to reconsider Sri Lanka’s UN membership, the ex-External Affairs Minister said, pointing out that the country had to make regular payments to retain membership of other UN agencies, as well.

Prof. Peiris said that indefensible attacks on international organisations could cause irreparable damage to the country. Appreciating the CLA’s report on the Supreme Court proceedings on the 01 and 02 September, Prof. Peiris stressed the importance of what he called total transparency in the judicial process. He said that whatever the outcome of a particular legal process, it couldn’t be done behind the backs of the public.

Referring to legal processes regarding the 6th Amendment and 13th Amendment, in 1983 and 1987, respectively, Prof. Peiris said, on both occasions the then Chief Justices Neville Samarakoon and S. Sharvananda constituted benches consisting of all Supreme Court judges.

But, the incumbent CJ Preethi Padman Surasena, in spite of the majority of petitioners demanding all available 13 justices to hear the case, decided to leave out those on the seniority list from second position to fourth position.

The government got offended because the CLA pointed that out for the whole world to take notice, Prof. Peiris said. The former parliamentarian noted that the CJ hadn’t even give a reason for declining the widespread call to involve all available 13 judges. According to him, there had been instances where CJ’s appointed seven justices to hear a particular case. Prof. Peiris cited the 2018 bench of seven judges that heard the petitions against President Maithripala Sirisena over the dissolution of Parliament and a panel constituted in 2023 to hear the 2019 Easter Sunday carnage that claimed the lives of 270 people.

The issue at hand is that the five-member panel of judges hadn’t been selected on the basis of seniority, Prof. Peiris said, once the SC determination was sent and released through the Speaker, they would meticulously examine that to make their position known to the people. Prof. Peiris said that what they really wanted to know was that if seniority hadn’t been the basis for selection what the criterion was.

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Sri Lanka reiterates its territory won’t be used against India

Published

10 hours ago

2026/09/10

Sahan Weerasooriya

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh listening attentively to President Dissanayake (pic courtesy PMD)

The Indian Defence Ministry in a statement issued yesterday (09) quoted President Anura Kumara Dissanayake as having assured visiting Defence Minister Rajnath Singh that Sri Lanka would never allow its territory to be used for activities inimical to India’s security interests.

The text of the Indian press release: “Visiting Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh called on President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Colombo on September 09, 2026. The two leaders held substantive discussions on issues covering the entire spectrum of the multi-faceted partnership between the two nations, characterised by traditionally warm relations and mutual trust.

The two sides reaffirmed that as civilisational twins, close neighbours and maritime partners, India and Sri Lanka would continue to work together for their development and welfare of the people while working jointly to ensure the safety, security, peace and prosperity of the region. The senior Indian Minister conveyed greetings on behalf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and underlined that the citizens of the two countries share deep friendship based on strong historical & civilisational links and people-to-people exchanges.

Extending a warm welcome to Mr. Singh, President Dissanayake recalled his interactions with PM Modi and reiterated that Sri Lanka would never allow its territory to be used for any activities inimical to India’s security interests.

President Dissanayake expressed his gratitude for the relief assistance provided by India as part of Operation Sagar Bandhu during Cyclone Ditwah and the comprehensive rehabilitation package extended by New Delhi to facilitate reconstruction and rehabilitation work across different parts of the island. The powerful Indian Defence Minister emphasised that as a closest friend and neighbour of Sri Lanka, India considered it not a favour, but a responsibility to provide assistance as the first responder and would continue to do so in the future as well.

Both leaders virtually inaugurated three Bailey Bridges constructed by the Indian Defence Forces. The two sides also exchanged MoUs on upgradation of L70 Guns for the Sri Lankan Air Force, and cooperation between National Cadet Corps (NCC) & National Defence Colleges (NDC) of both the countries. The MoU on Upgradation of six L70 guns for the Sri Lankan Air Force falls under a Government of India grant. The upgradation of these air defence guns will significantly strengthen the air defence architecture of critical assets in Sri Lanka. These air defence guns were earlier provided to the Sri Lanka Air Force by India.

The MoU on academic cooperation between NDC, India and NDC, Sri Lanka will facilitate knowledge sharing which will be a significant step in further strengthening the academic bonds between both the sister institutes. The MoU on NCC cooperation will formalise the NCC youth exchange programme between India and Sri Lanka. This exchange programme provides a valuable opportunity for NCC cadets from multiple countries across the world to come to New Delhi every year and participate in NCC events.”

News

UK-led Core Group calls Jaffna mass graves a ‘stark reminder’ but stops short of calling for international accountability

Published

10 hours ago

2026/09/10

Sahan Weerasooriya

Eleanor Sanders

Mass grave excavations in Sri Lanka are a stark reminder that thousands of cases of enforced disappearance remain unresolved, the Sri Lanka Core Group has told the UN Human Rights Council, urging Colombo to translate its stated commitment to reform into concrete progress, while again stopping short of calling for the international accountability that Tamils have long demanded.

The statement, delivered in Geneva, on Tuesday (08), during the Council’s 63rd session by the United Kingdom’s Human Rights Ambassador Eleanor Sanders on behalf of Canada, Malawi, Montenegro, North Macedonia and the UK, welcomed, what it called, the High Commissioner’s balanced assessment of the human rights situation on the island.

The group acknowledged that Sri Lanka had faced considerable challenges recently, including severe weather events and global energy shocks, and welcomed positive developments, including the ratification of the ILO Convention 190 and engagement on the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

“However, much further action is needed to build confidence in accountability and reconciliation efforts,” Sanders said. “Progress in several emblematic cases has not yet been accompanied by a comprehensive,

victim-centred accountability process to address past violations. Mass grave excavations are a stark reminder that thousands of cases of enforced disappearances remain unresolved. And reports of intimidation, harassment, and restrictions affecting civil society, journalists and victims’ groups, including in the North and East, still raise concerns.”

The group urged progress on democratic governance, including advancing legal and institutional reforms, resolving land-related issues, ensuring respect for human rights in detention institutions and strengthening independent institutions.

The statement follows a familiar pattern. In June, the group acknowledged “developments in certain mass grave investigations” and urged that excavations meet international standards, and in March it called for the repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act. At the 58th session it welcomed a series of measures Tamils regarded as superficial. Neither this statement, nor its predecessors, names Chemmani, calls for international oversight of the excavation, or addresses the demand for a referral to the International Criminal Court.