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Poverty, Aswesuma and food security

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A file photo of a protest against alleged irregularities in the newly-introduced Aswesuma welfare programme

By Dr. C. S. Weeraratna (csweera@sltnet.lk)

Poverty is a condition characterized by severe deprivation of basic human needs, such as food, shelter, safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, health, and education. Various criteria are used to measure poverty. The most commonly used is based on incomes. A person is considered poor if his or her income level falls below a minimum level necessary to meet basic needs. This minimum level is called the “poverty line”. What is necessary to satisfy the basic needs varies across countries, and societies. Therefore, the poverty line varies in time and place, and each country uses poverty lines which are appropriate to its level of development, societal norms and values. According to the Department of Census and Statistics, the poverty line in Sri Lanka, in 2016, was 6,177. It increased to 7,913 in 2021 and to 13,777 in 2022. According to World Bank data, Sri Lanka’s poverty rate almost doubled from 13.1 to 25 percent between 2021 and 2022, This increase has added an additional 2.5 million people into poverty in 2022. Poverty is projected to remain around 25 percent in the next few years due to the multiple risks to households’ livelihoods. The negative economic outlook for 2023 and 2024 and adverse effects of revenue-mobilizing reforms could worsen poverty projections. A recovery and expansion of wage employment in the services and industry sectors will be the key to shift employment from lower-paying agricultural jobs and make a dent on poverty.

Since independence, various programmes to assist the poor have been implemented in Sri Lanka. The Food Ration scheme, which provided rice at a subsidized price, the Janasaviya programme, and the Samurdhi programme, etc., implemented by the government at different times, and numerous projects carried out by other organizations, such as the World Food Programme, were to alleviate poverty/reduce food insecurity among the poor. In these programmes/projects, households receiving low incomes were provided cash/food to increase their food supply. The latest poverty alleviation programme is Aswesuma which is to be implemented shortly. Under this programme, cash is to be distributed among four social categories, namely transitional, vulnerable, poor, and extremely poor. Additionally, the usual allowances for the differently-abled, elderly, and kidney patients will also be provided. Around 400,000 transitional beneficiaries will receive Rs.2,500.00 per month, until 31 December, 2023, 400,000 vulnerable beneficiaries will receive Rs.5,000.00 per month, until 31 March, 2024, 800,000 poor beneficiaries will receive Rs.8,500.00 per month, for three years and extremely poor beneficiaries will receive Rs.15,000.00 per month for three years, beginning 01 July, 2023. The criteria used to classify the poor into the four categories and the allowances to be paid are not known. However, some Samurdhi beneficiaries are reported to be left out from the Aswesuma programme.

Food Security

 Startling revelations have emerged, indicating that approximately 7.5 million people in Sri Lanka are currently grappling with a severe food crisis, according to a study conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The study has disclosed that among the 5.7 million families, residing in Sri Lanka, a staggering 33% are facing food insecurity. Consequently, this translates to approximately 7.5 million individuals across the country being directly impacted by this crisis. According to a special report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Food Programme’s crop and food security assessment mission to Sri Lanka, 17% of the population is in moderate acute food insecurity in Sri Lanka, especially in the Northern, Eastern and Central Provinces.

It is likely that the people affected by poverty are forced to face the consequences of food insecurity. Those in poor families are reducing their spending on health and education which have many undesirable repercussions. Rising food insecurity will also lead to increases in malnutrition and stunting among children, in addition to the undesirable effects on socioeconomic factors. According to the World Food Programme, 6.3 million people, or nearly 30 percent of Sri Lanka’s population, are “food insecure” and require humanitarian assistance. Of these, around 5.3 million people are either reducing meals or skipping meals, and at least 65,600 people are severely food insecure. This situation is likely to worsen due to high food prices, acute shortage of essential food, weak purchasing power, etc. Those who have been selected to receive Aswesuma payments are poor, or extremely poor, and they are likely to be not taking enough food in sufficient amounts to meet the daily energy requirement (2000-2500 Cal) which depends on age, level of physical activit, etc,

As defined in the World Food Summit, food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs for an active and healthy life. When people do not have enough financial resources, they and their families are unable to meet the nutrients requirement for an active and healthy life.

The government, perhaps, having realized the repercussions of food insecurity, initiated a programme to ensure that no citizen of the country should starve due to lack of food and no child should be a victim of malnutrition. The relevant mechanism is to be implemented through seven committees while the National Food Security and Nutrition Council will function under the chairmanship of the President. Food security in Sri Lanka has improved, marginally, according to the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) report jointly carried out in February/March 2023 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). Despite this positive trend, food insecurity remains high in certain districts, especially in Kilinochchi, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Batticaloa, Vavuniya, and Jaffna. The highest level of acute food insecurity (67%) is reported within the tea plantation communities in the estate sector and among daily wage labourers. However, in spite of several committees, there appears to be no substantial increase in food production in the country.

The Aswesuma programme which is expected to dole out Rs. 15,000 per month per family to extremely poor families, over a period of three years, will not make them escape from the undesirable effects of food insecurity, Hence, it is necessary that appropriate programmes are implemented to increase food supply, the earning capacity of the poor and also to reduce their expenditure on food so that they will not have to face the consequences of inadequate food intake.

Increasing food security

Food security is a major issue in Sri Lanka, where the government is trying to provide food for its people in the face of shortages, natural disasters and increasing prices of food commodities in the market due to many reasons. The problems become greater in areas with degraded lands. Recognizing that the relative income of farmers has been sliding down consistently, production, processing and distribution of foods should be encouraged. Off-farm rural employment, and essential facilities and infrastructure for primary health and education should be created with due emphasis on streamlining of input-output markets, agro-processing and value addition, particularly in horticulture and livestock sub-sector, and services geared towards the resource-poor farmers, including the landless, and women.

 Promoting cultivation of home gardens is one of the strategies to increase food security. Sri Lanka is a land of villages. There are around 14,000 of them. The total area under home gardens, in Sri Lanka, is around 300,00 hectares, representing about 25% of the total agricultural area operated by peasants. Appropriate programmes need to be implemented to increase the productivity of the home gardens. Numerous crops which supply carbohydrates, proteins, vitamins and minerals can be grown in home gardens which will have a positive impact on food security.

Most home gardens remain unproductive mainly due to the difficulty of obtaining suitable high yielding planting materials. Therefore, the development of plant nurseries, in areas easily accessible to the farmer, and provision of seeds, seedlings and other planting materials of vegetables, fruits, etc., will motivate householders to cultivate better high yielding crop varieties. Increasing the productivity of home gardens will have a considerable positive impact on food security. Various pests and diseases are likely to attack the crops cultivated in the home garden. In the attempts to achieve a high level of food security, it is necessary that these pests and diseases are controlled, using chemical, or biological pesticides. It is also necessary that fertilisers, such as compost, urea, potassium chloride and TSP, are applied at correct times. The cultivators need to be assisted by relevant authorities to obtain necessary inputs, such as seeds/planting material, fertilisers, etc. Prevention of post-harvest losses and efficient agro processing interventions should be emphasized so as to add value to the products that are grown/raised locally and link them with both domestic and international markets

Food Security is at maximum level when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to food. As indicated earlier, the local production of carbohydrates (rice and sugar), proteins (fish and milk) and fats and oils (edible oil, margarine and butter) is inadequate to meet the demand. Hence, these food items and several others are imported. The expenditure on food imports has increased considerably, during the present decade, and annually around Rs. 40 billion is spent on food imports. According to the Household Food Security Survey, conducted by the World Food Programme, in 2023, 67 percent of households in the estate sector are food insecure; The corresponding values for rural and urban areas are 53 and 43 percent, respectively.

Household food security depends mainly on their ability to secure enough food to ensure an adequate dietary intake for all of its members, at all times, for a healthy and an active life. Poverty and high food prices have reduced the food security at household level, especially in those where the incomes are low.

Hence, implementation of economically viable programmes to increase the level of local food production is essential, in addition to doling out cash among the poor for three years. Such programmes would provide employment to thousands of rural people and increase their incomes. Even if 50% of the present expenditure on food is spent locally, it would increase the rural income by nearly Rs. 20 billion, and significantly increase the purchasing power of the rural sector, thereby increasing food security, It will result in a considerable increase in the demand for high-elastic consumer items, thus generating further employment. The impact of it on the rural population and their poverty would be considerable.



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Your six-year-old needs a tablet like a fish needs a smartphone

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THE GREAT DIGITAL RETHINK — PART II

Nordic countries handed tablets to toddlers and called it early childhood education. Now they’re taking the tablets back, handing out pencils, and hoping nobody noticed. Meanwhile, the Global South is still signing the tablet contracts. Someone should probably warn them.

The Tablet Arrives in Preschool

It is 2013, a government minister stands in a preschool in Stockholm, handing a shiny tablet to a four-year-old. Press cameras click. A press release announces that Sweden is building the digital classrooms of the future. The child, who until recently had been learning to hold a crayon, now swipes confidently at a screen. Innovation! Progress! The future!

Fast forward to 2023, the same Swedish government, or at least its successors, announces that preschools were wrong to make digital devices mandatory. Children’s reading comprehension is declining. Books are going back on the shelves. Pencils are making a comeback. The preschool tablets are being quietly wheeled into storage, and nobody wants to talk about the press release.

What Finland Actually Did — And Is Now Undoing

Finland has long held a special place in the global education imagination. When PISA scores are published and Finland sits at or near the top, education ministers from Seoul to São Paulo take note and wonder what they are doing wrong. Finland is the benchmark. Finland is the proof that good education is possible.

Which makes it all the more significant that Finland, in 2025, passed legislation banning mobile phones from classrooms. Not just recommending restraint. Not just issuing guidelines. Banning them, with teachers empowered to confiscate devices that disrupt learning. The law covers both primary and secondary schools. It came after years of evidence that children were distracted, and that Finland’s own PISA scores had been falling.

But the phone ban is only part of the story. The deeper shift in Finnish primary education has been a quiet reassertion of analogue fundamentals. Early literacy is being treated again as a craft that requires time, patience, practice and, crucially, a pencil.

Sweden gave tablets to toddlers. Then took them back. The pencils were in a drawer the whole time.

Sweden’s Spectacular U-Turn

Sweden’s reversal is arguably the most dramatic in recent educational history, because Sweden had gone further than most in embracing early-years digitalisation. The country had not merely allowed devices in preschool, it had in places mandated them, treating digital interaction as a developmental right alongside physical play and social learning. There was a logic to it, however misplaced: if the future is digital, surely children should encounter that future as early as possible.

The problem is that young children are not miniature adults navigating a digital workplace. They are human beings in the early stages of acquiring language, developing fine-motor-skills, building concentration and learning to regulate their own attention. These are not processes that are enhanced by a swipeable screen. Research on early childhood development is consistent on this point: young children learn language through conversation, storytelling, and physical manipulation of objects. They learn to write by writing, by the slow, muscular, tactile process of forming letters with a hand.

By 2023, Swedish education authorities had seen enough. Reading comprehension scores were down. Handwriting was deteriorating. Teachers were reporting that children were arriving in primary school unable to hold a pen properly. The policy reversed. Books came back. Cursive writing was reintroduced. The national curriculum was amended. And Sweden became, instead, a cautionary tale about what happens when you swap crayons for touchscreens before children have learned what crayons are for.

Australia: Banning Phones at Lunch

Australia’s approach to primary school digitalisation has been somewhat less ideologically charged than Scandinavia’s, and accordingly its reversal has been more pragmatic than philosophical. Australian states and territories arrived at phone bans largely through the accumulating pressure of parent complaints, teacher frustration and growing evidence that smartphones were damaging the social fabric of school life, not just in classrooms, but in playgrounds.

Queensland’s ‘away for the day’ policy, introduced in Term 1 of 2024, was notable precisely because it extended beyond lesson time to cover break times as well. This was a direct acknowledgement that the problem was not simply digital distraction during learning, it was the way that always-on connectivity was transforming childhood itself. Children who spend every break time on a phone are not playing, not resolving social conflicts face to face, not developing the unstructured social skills that primary school has always, if accidentally, taught.

The cyberbullying dimension added particular urgency in Australia, where research showed that many incidents of online harassment between primary-school children were occurring during school hours, facilitated by the phones sitting in their pockets. Banning the phone at the school gate did not solve the problem of online cruelty, but it did remove the school day as a venue for it.

The Science of the Pencil

The cognitive argument for handwriting in primary education is, it turns out, and far more interesting than the popular ‘screens bad, pencils good’ slogan suggests. The research on note-taking in university students, the finding that handwritten notes produce better conceptual understanding than typed notes, has a more fundamental parallel in primary education.

When a young child learns to write by hand, they are not merely practising a motor skill. They are encoding letters through physical movement, which activates memory systems that visual recognition alone does not reach. Studies in developmental psychology suggest that children who learn to write letters by hand recognise them faster and more accurately than those who learn through typing or tracing on screens. The hand, it appears, teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not.

This does not mean that digital tools have no place in primary education, nobody sensible is arguing that children should graduate from primary school unable to use a keyboard. The question is sequencing and proportion. The emerging consensus, hard-won through a decade of failed experiments, is that foundational literacy and numeracy need to be established through analogue means before digital tools are introduced as supplements. Screens can follow pencils. Pencils, it turns out, cannot follow screens without catching up on what was missed.

The hand teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not. And it took a decade of falling scores to rediscover this.

The Rest of the World Is Still Buying Tablets

Here is the uncomfortable part. While Finland legislates, Sweden reverses course and Australia bans phones from playgrounds, a large portion of the world’s primary schools are doing the opposite. Governments across South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are actively expanding device programmes in primary schools. Tablets are being distributed. Interactive whiteboards are being installed. AI tutoring apps are being piloted. The logic is identical to the logic Finland and Sweden followed 15 years ago: modernise, digitalise, equip children for the future.

The vendors selling these systems are not telling ministers about the Swedish U-turn. The development banks financing device programmes are not adjusting their models to reflect the OECD’s inverted-U curve. The international consultants advising education ministries are largely still working from a playbook written in 2010.

The lesson of the Nordic reversal is not that screens are evil, it is that screens at the wrong stage, in the wrong proportion, without the right pedagogical framework, undermine the very foundations they are supposed to build on. That lesson is available. The question is whether anyone is listening.

What Primary Schools Actually Need

Literacy and numeracy are not enhanced by early device saturation. They are built through reading aloud, through writing by hand, through mathematical reasoning with physical objects, and through the irreplaceable medium of a skilled teacher who knows their students.

Technology in primary education works best when it supplements a strong foundation, not when it substitutes for one that has not yet been built. Sweden and Finland did not fail because they used technology. They failed because they used it too extensively, and without asking what it was actually for. That question — what is this for? — is the one that every primary school system in the world should be asking before it signs another tablet contract.

SERIES ROADMAP Part I: From Ed-Tech Enthusiasm to De-Digitalisation | Part II: Phones, Pens & Early Literacy (this article) | Part III: Attention, Algorithms & Adolescents | Part IV: Universities, AI & the Handwritten Exam | Part V: A Critical Theory of Educational De-Digitalisation

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)

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Government is willing to address the past

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Minister Ratnayake

Minister Bimal Rathnayake has urged all Sri Lankan refugees in India to return to Sri Lanka, stating that provision has been made for their reintegration. He called on India to grant citizenship to those who wished to stay on in India, but added that the government would welcome them back with both hands if they chose Sri Lanka. He gave due credit to the Organisation for Eelam Refugees Rehabilitation (OfERR), an NGO led by S. C. Chandrahasan, the son of S. J. V. Chelvanayakam, widely regarded as the foremost advocate of a federal solution and a historic leader of the Federal Party. OfERR has for decades assisted refugees, particularly Sri Lankan Tamils in India, with documentation, advocacy and voluntary repatriation support. Given the slow pace of resettlement of Ditwah cyclone victims, the government will need to make adequate preparations for an influx of Indian returnees for which it will need all possible assistance. The minister’s acknowledgement indicates that the government appreciates the work of NGOs when they directly assist people.

The issue of Sri Lankan refugees in India is a legacy of the three-decade long war that induced mass migration of Tamil people to foreign countries. According to widely cited estimates, the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora today exceeds one million and is often placed between 1 and 1.5 million globally, with large communities in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia. India, particularly Tamil Nadu, continues to host a significant refugee population. Current figures indicate that approximately 58,000 to 60,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees live in camps in India, with a further 30,000 to 35,000 living outside camps, bringing the total to around 90,000. These numbers have declined over time but remain one of the most visible human legacies of the conflict.

The fact that the government has chosen to make this announcement at this time indicates that it is not attempting to gloss over the human rights issues of the past that continue into the present. Those who suffered victimisation during the war may be encouraged that their concerns remain on the national agenda and have not been forgotten. Apart from those who continue to be refugees in India, there are more than 14,000 complaints of missing persons still under investigation according to the Office on Missing Persons, which has received tens of thousands of complaints since its establishment. There are also unresolved issues of land taken over by the military as high security zones, though some land has been released, and prisoners held in long term detention under the Prevention of Terrorism Act, which the government has pledged to repeal and replace.

Sequenced Response

In addressing the issue of Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in India, the government is sending a message to the Tamil people that it is not going to gloss over the past. The indications are that the government is sequencing its responses to problems arising from the past. The government faces a range of urgent challenges, some inherited from previous governments, such as war era human rights concerns, and others that have arisen more recently after it took office. The most impactful of these crises are not of its own making. Global economic instability has affected Sri Lanka significantly. The Middle East war has contributed to a shortage of essential fuels and fertilizers worldwide. Sri Lanka is particularly vulnerable to rising fuel prices. Just months prior to these global pressures, Sri Lanka faced severe climate related shocks, including being hit by a cyclone that led to floods and landslides across multiple districts and caused loss of life and extensive damage to property and livelihoods.

From the beginning of its term, the government has been compelled to prioritise economic recovery and corruption linked to the economy, which were central to its electoral mandate. As the International Monetary Fund has emphasised, Sri Lanka must continue reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, reduce debt vulnerabilities and strengthen governance. The economic problems that the government must address are urgent and affect all communities, whether in the north or south, and across Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim populations. These problems cannot be postponed. However, issues such as dealing with the past, holding provincial council elections and reforming the constitution are not experienced as equally urgent by the majority, even though they are of deep importance to minorities. Indeed, the provincial council system was designed to address the concerns of the minorities and a solution to their problems.

Unresolved grievances tend to reappear in new forms when not addressed through political processes. Therefore, they need to be addressed sooner rather than later, even if they are not the most immediate priorities for the government. It must not be forgotten that the ethnic conflict and the three decade long war it generated was the single most destructive blow to the country, greatly diminishing its prospects for rapid economic development. Prolonged conflict reduced investment, diverted public expenditure and weakened institutions. If Sri Lanka’s early leaders had been able to negotiate peacefully and resolve their differences, the country might have fulfilled predictions that it could become the “Switzerland of the East.”

Present Opportunity

The present government has a rare opportunity to address the issues of the past in a way that ensures long term peace and justice. It has a two thirds majority in parliament, giving it the constitutional space to undertake significant reforms. It has also demonstrated a more inclusive approach to ethnic and religious minorities than many earlier governments which either mobilized ethnic nationalism for its own purposes or feared it too much to take political risks to undertake necessary reforms. Public trust in the government, as noted by international observers, remains relatively strong. During her recent visit, IMF Director General Kristalina Georgieva stated that “there is a window of opportunity for Sri Lanka,” noting that public trust in the government provides a foundation for reform.

It also appears that decades of public education on democracy, human rights and coexistence have had positive effects. This education, carried out by civil society organisations over several decades, sometimes in support of government initiatives and more often in the face of government opposition, provides a foundation for political reform aimed at justice and reconciliation. Civil society initiatives, inter-ethnic dialogue and rights-based advocacy have contributed to shaping a more informed public about controversial issues such as power-sharing, federalism and accountability for war crimes. The government would do well to expand the appreciation it has deservedly given to OfERR to other NGOs that have dedicated themselves addressing the ethnic and religious mistrust in the country and creating greater social cohesion.

The challenge for the government is to engage in reconciliation without undue delay, even as other pressures continue to grow. Sequencing is necessary, but indefinite postponement carries risks. If this opportunity for conflict resolution is not taken, it may be a long time before another presents itself. Sri Lanka may then continue to underperform economically, remaining an ethnically divided polity, not in open warfare, but constrained by unresolved tensions. The government’s recent reference to Tamil refugees in India is therefore significant. It shows that even while prioritising urgent economic and global challenges, it has not forgotten the past. Sri Lanka has a government with both the mandate and the capacity to address that past in a manner that secures a more stable and just future for all its people.

By Jehan Perera

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Strategic diplomacy at Sea: Reading the signals from Hormuz

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The unfolding tensions and diplomatic manoeuvres around the Strait of Hormuz offer more than a snapshot of regional instability. They reveal a deeper transformation in global statecraft, one where influence is exercised through calibrated engagement rather than outright confrontation. This is strategic diplomacy in its modern form: restrained, calculated, and layered with competing interests.

At first glance, the current developments may appear as routine diplomatic exchanges aimed at preventing escalation. However, beneath the surface lies a complex web of signalling among major and middle powers. The United States seeks to maintain deterrence without triggering an open conflict. Iran aims to resist pressure while avoiding isolation. Meanwhile, China and India, two rising powers with expanding global interests are navigating the situation with careful precision.

China’s position is anchored in economic pragmatism. As a major importer of Gulf energy, Beijing has a direct stake in ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and stable. Any disruption would reverberate through its industrial base and global supply chains. Consequently, China advocates de-escalation and diplomatic resolution. Yet, this is not purely altruistic. Stability serves China’s long-term strategic ambitions, including the protection of its Belt and Road investments and maritime routes. At the same time, Beijing remains alert to India’s growing diplomatic footprint in the region. Should India deepen its engagement with Iran and other Gulf actors, it could gradually reshape the strategic balance in areas traditionally influenced by China.

India’s approach, in contrast, reflects a confident and increasingly sophisticated foreign policy. By engaging Iran directly, while maintaining working relationships with Western powers, New Delhi is positioning itself as a credible intermediary. This is not merely about energy security, though that remains a key driver. It is also about strategic autonomy the ability to act independently in a multipolar world. India’s diplomacy signals that it is no longer a passive player but an active shaper of regional outcomes. Its engagement with Iran, particularly in the context of connectivity and trade routes, underscores its intent to secure long-term strategic access while countering potential encirclement.

Iran, for its part, views the situation through the lens of survival and strategic resilience. Years of sanctions and pressure have shaped a cautious but pragmatic diplomatic posture. Engagement with external actors, including India and China, provides Tehran with avenues to ease isolation and assert relevance. However, Iran’s trust deficit remains significant. Its diplomacy is transactional, focused on immediate gains rather than long-term alignment. The current environment offers opportunities for tactical advantage, but Iran is unlikely to make concessions that could compromise its core strategic objectives.

Even actors on the periphery, such as North Korea, are closely observing these developments. Pyongyang interprets global events through a narrow but consistent framework: regime survival through deterrence. The situation around Iran reinforces its belief that leverage, particularly military capability, is a prerequisite for meaningful negotiation. While North Korea is not directly involved, it draws lessons that may shape its own strategic calculations.

What emerges from these varied perspectives is a clear departure from traditional bloc-based geopolitics. The world is moving towards a more fluid and fragmented order, where alignments are temporary and issue-specific. States cooperate on certain matters while competing with others. This creates a dynamic but unpredictable environment, where misinterpretation and miscalculation remain constant risks.

It is within this evolving context that Sri Lanka’s strategic relevance becomes increasingly visible. The recent visit by the US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor, to the Colombo Port; is not a routine diplomatic courtesy call. It is a signal. Ports are no longer just commercial gateways; they are strategic assets embedded in global power competition. A visit of this nature underscores how Sri Lanka’s maritime infrastructure is being viewed through a geopolitical lens particularly in relation to sea lane security, logistics, and regional influence.

Such engagements reflect a broader reality: global powers are not only watching the Strait of Hormuz but are also positioning themselves along the wider Indian Ocean network that connects it. Colombo, situated along one of the busiest east–west shipping routes, becomes part of this extended strategic theatre. The presence and interest of external actors in Sri Lanka’s ports highlight an emerging pattern of influence without overt control a hallmark of modern strategic diplomacy.

For Sri Lanka, these developments are far from abstract. The island’s strategic location along major Indian Ocean shipping routes places it at the intersection of these global currents. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy flows, and any disruption would have immediate consequences for Sri Lanka’s economy, particularly in terms of fuel prices and supply stability.

Moreover, Sri Lanka must manage the competing interests of larger powers operating within its vicinity. India’s expanding regional role, China’s entrenched economic presence, and the growing attention from the United States all converge in the Indian Ocean. This requires a careful balancing act. Aligning too closely with any one power risks alienating others, while inaction could leave Sri Lanka vulnerable to external pressures.

The appropriate response lies in adopting a robust foreign policy that engages all major stakeholders while preserving national autonomy. This involves strengthening diplomatic channels, enhancing maritime security capabilities, and investing in strategic foresight. Sri Lanka must also recognise the growing importance of non-traditional security domains, including cyber threats and information warfare, which increasingly accompany geopolitical competition.

Equally important is the need for internal coherence. Effective diplomacy abroad must be supported by institutional strength at home. Policy consistency, professional expertise, and strategic clarity are essential if Sri Lanka is to navigate an increasingly complex international environment.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz thus serves as both a warning and an opportunity. It highlights the fragility of global systems, but also underscores the potential for skilled diplomacy to manage tensions. For Sri Lanka, the challenge is not merely to observe these developments, but to position itself wisely within them.

In a world where power is no longer exercised solely through force, but through influence and presence, strategic diplomacy becomes not just an option, but a necessity. The nations that succeed will be those that understand this shift now and act with clarity, balance, and foresight.

Mahil Dole is a senior Sri Lankan police officer with over four decades of experience in law enforcement and intelligence. He previously served as Head of the Counter-Terrorism Division of the State Intelligence Service and has conducted extensive interviews with more than 100 suicide cadres linked to terrorist organisations. He is a graduate of the Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (Hawaii).

By Mahil Dole
Senior Police Officer (Retd.), Former Head of Counter-Terrorism Division, State Intelligence Service, Sri Lanka

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